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园静铜齐
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1 干旱气象 Journal of Arid Meteorology Vol. 32 No. 3 June J YAO RongLI ZuxianXU Linet al. Key Technical Indicators and Application Analysis About Forecast of Freezing Rain Weather in Hu nan Province J. Journal of Arid Meteorology doi /j. issn ~ 2009 TS doi /j. issn P456 A % GYHY E - mail @ qq. com

3 367 1. 1 1. 2 1951 ~ 2009 1 2a 500 hpa 10% ~ 90% 3-15. 5 ~ - 9. 7-12. 5 700 hpa 10% ~ 90% - 2. 8 ~ 2-0. 7 850 hpa 2008 2011 10% ~ 90% - 8. 7 ~ - 4. 9 925 hpa 10% ~ 90% - 8. 1 ~ - 4.

2 ~ a 500 hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ hpa % ~ 90% ~ hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ hpa 925 hpa hpa 2b hpa 10% ~ 90% 1. 2 ~ hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ hpa 700 hpa ~ hpa Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of frozen rain days in winter during in Hu nan 2 Fig. 2 a b The box plot of freezing rain s temperature a and temperature difference b on different air layers over Changsha station hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ gpm gpm hpa hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ 10% ~ 90% ~ gpm gpm hpa 10% ~ 90% ~ gpm gpm gpm

368 32 Fig. 3 3 a b The box plots of air thickness between 700 and 850 hpa850 and 1 000 hpa under the frozen weather condition over Changsha a and Chenzhou station b 2 700 hpa 2.

3 Fig. 3 3 a b The box plots of air thickness between 700 and 850 hpa850 and hpa under the frozen weather condition over Changsha a and Chenzhou station b hpa hpa 700 hpa 15 m s hpa N hpa 700 hpa Fig. 4 a b The average height field on 500 hpa the average wind field and the averaged whole wind speed field on 700 hpa color - filled a and the average surface pressure field b from January 13 to February 22008

3 369 2. 2 5 2008 850 hpa 110 ~ 115 E v 1 850 hpa 1 25 2 1 θ se θ se /p < 0 θ se θ se /p > 0 6 Fig.

4 5 2008 1 13 2 2 850 hpa 110 E ~ 115 E v m /s Fig.

4 hpa 110 ~ 115 E v hpa θ se θ se /p < 0 θ se θ se /p > 0 6 Fig. 6 Conceptual model of atmospheric circulation for the freezing rain weather in Hu nan hpa 110 E ~ 115 E v m /s Fig. 5 The latitude - time profiles of average meridional wind speed on 850 hpa along 110 E E from January 13 to February Unit m /s 2. 3 z 1 - z 2 = R 珔 T ln p 0 g p hpa z 1 - z 2 2 珔 T hpa 700 hpa hpa hpa 1

5 Tab. 1 1 The combination table of freezing rain s criterion and threshold of Changsha and Chenzhou T T T gpm > H > 1520 gpm H gpm 1570 gpm > H > 1520 gpm H gpm T T T T gpm > H > 1520 gpm H gpm 1570 gpm > H > 1520 gpm H gpm T ~ TS 2 3 Tab. 2 2 The date of history cases of freezing rain weather in Changsha Tab. 3 3 The date of history cases of freezing rain weather in Chenzhou

6 3 371 Tab. 4 4 The inspection of forecast technology indicators for freezing rain TS TS d 5 Tab Conditional test of frozen rain criterion in Changsha and Chenzhou at February T 700 = 0 T 850 = - 7 T 1000 = - 4 H = 1540 gpm H = 1266 gpm T 700 = 2 T T 1000 = 0 H = 1580 gpm H = 1266 gpm ~ ~ 4 28 d hpa 925 hpa 0 J hpa J J J J hpa J J J J J J

7 J J. J J Key Technical Indicators and Application Analysis About Forecast of Freezing Rain Weather in Hu nan Province YAO RongLI ZuxianXU LinTANG JieCHEN Jingjing Hu nan Meteorological ObservatoryChangsha China Abstract Based on the sounding data and ground observation data in winter during in Hu nanthe temporal and spatial distribution of freezing rain weathers frequencies and the lasting duration of the freezing rain weather in Hu nanas well as temperature features in each layer under the freezing weather were analyzed firstly. Moreover the forecast technology indicators and space conceptual model of freezing rain weather in Hu nan have been refined. The testing results and forecasting application show that the TS score of thickness factor was higher than that of temperature factorbut the mixing factor of thickness and temperature had the highest TS score. The combination of freezing rain forecast criterion indicators and spatial conceptual model of atmospheric circulation of freezing rain weathers made good effects in prediction of the freezing rain weather process which occurred in the south region of the middle Hu nan in January Key words freezing rain statistical analysis space conceptual model forecast index 檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳 2014 干旱气象由中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所中国气象学会干旱气象学委员会主办, 是我国干旱气象领域科学研究的专业性学术期刊, 反映有关干旱气象监测预测和评估的最新研究成果, 充分展示干旱气象领域整体的研究和应用水平期刊主要刊载干旱气象及相关领域有一定创造性的学术论文研究综述简评, 国内外干旱气象发展动态综合评述学术争鸣以及相关学术活动具体包括 : 国内外重大干旱事件分析全球及干旱区气候变化干旱气象灾害评估及对策研究水文生态与环境农业与气象可再生能源开发与利用地理信息与遥感技术的应用等本刊还免费刊载干旱气象研究成果研究报道学术活动会议消息等干旱气象已被中国学术期刊 ( 光盘版 CAJ - CD) 万方数据 - 数字化期刊群中国核心期刊 ( 遴选 ) 数据库中国科技论文统计源期刊重庆维普中文科技期刊数据库教育阅读网台湾华谊线上图书馆等全文收录干旱气象内容丰富信息量大研读性强, 适合广大气象科研业务工作者各相关专业技术人员大专院校师生阅读干旱气象为双月刊, 国内外公开发行 2014 年正刊 6 期, 每期定价 36 元, 全年 216 元欢迎广大读者订阅, 并可以随时邮局款汇购买, 款到开正式发票编辑部地址 : 甘肃省兰州市东岗东路 2070 号中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所干旱气象编辑部邮政编码 : 联系电话 : 电子信箱 : ghs_ghqx@ sina. com 银行汇款 : 兰州市工商银行拱星墩分理处户名 : 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所帐号 : 邮汇 : 兰州市东岗东路 2070 号中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所干旱气象编辑部檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳檳

~ a 3 h NCEP ~ 24 3 ~ ~ 8 9 ~ km m ~ 500 m 500 ~ 800 m 800 ~ m a 200

~ a 3 h NCEP ~ 24 3 ~ ~ 8 9 ~ km m ~ 500 m 500 ~ 800 m 800 ~ m a 200 31 1 2013 3 Journal of Arid Meteorology Vol. 31 No. 1 March 2013. J. 2013 31 1 62-69. doi 10. 11755 /j. issn. 1006-7639 2013-01 - 0062 211101 2000 ~ 2010 3 h 2. 5 2. 5 NCEP 2 5 ~ 7 02 11 05 ~ 08 2 ~ 8