HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? Executive Summary Designated as one of Shanghai s most important strategic development areas, the development of the

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF?

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? Executive Summary Designated as one of Shanghai s most important strategic development areas, the development of the Hongqiao Central Business District (The Hongqiao CBD) is a priority for the local government. The grand Hongqiao CBD project is expected to benefit from its close integration with the Hongqiao Transportation Hub (HTH), forming the backbone of Shanghai s regional travel network. The Hongqiao CBD is divided into two major areas the Major Function Area and the Expansion Area. The Major Function Area is a new planned development area, which is scheduled to add approximately 1.7 million sqm of office, retail and hotel space to the market in 2014-2015 and bring another 1.3 million sqm of commercial area between 2015 and 2020. With huge supply competition, building specification restrictions, and the uncertainty of completion timeframe, the Hongqiao CBD does face challenges. For many developers, the Hongqiao CBD will introduce new development strategies, which may impact the project position, operation model and timeframe of the project. In the long term, the Hongqiao CBD s proximity to the HTH, established amenities and infrastructure will attract international and local firms from a range of industries including automotive, third party logistics, warehouse storage, service firms and commercial trading sectors who are seeking to enter the Shanghai/Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region as well as save costs, consolidate and upgrade their facilities. * The energy centre in the Hongqiao CBD Core Area Phase I Source: Shanghai Hongqiao Central Business District Administration Committee 02

KnightFrank.com.cn Introduction Despite uncertain global economic conditions, and a sharp deterioration in the current account (net revenue from foreign trade), China s GDP maintained a strong 7.7% growth rate in 2013, leaving its Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over the past eight years at a robust over 10%. In which, the YRD region alone was responsible for 20% of China s total GDP and achieved almost RMB12 trillion in 2013. In particular, being geographically situated close to the centre of the YRD and a major financial centre in China, Shanghai has naturally become a business hub for the YRD region. To further capitalize on its proximity to other YRD cities, the Shanghai government launched the HTH project in 2006 a massive transportation hub which will integrate air travel, high-speed rail, with local metro and Maglev lines. It began operating in 2011 and the expanded HTH will ultimately become the world s largest transportation hub with a total gross floor area (GFA) of 1.5 million sqm. From 2011 to 2013, the number of passengers that travelled through the HTH increased from 182 million to 250 million. In recent years, many industrial firms epicentre of this westward expansion, have chosen to relocate westward in spearheaded by government s search of lower rents and labor costs, ambitious development of the HTH. proximity to their manufacturing base, The Hongqiao CBD is expected to shorter commute time to other YRD become the new centre for west major cities, more abundant supply Shanghai and the hub for the YRD of land and favorable tax incentives region. However, there are concerns offered by the government for a range about the demand for the Hongqiao of sectors including manufacturing, CBD in part as the supply of Grade-A logistics and trading. office stock is expected to increase The development of the office significantly across multiple districts of market has also begun to follow Shanghai during the same period. this trend, with a growing number of firms choosing to locate outside of Shanghai main CBD areas. The Hongqiao CBD area is to be the Chart 1: Hongqiao CBD location in YRD region As the development of the major business nodes in Pudong and Puxi mature, commercial expansion is continuing to decentralise. The west side of Shanghai is a prime location for future commercial developments due to the upgraded transportation network of the HTH and proximity to a diverse manufacturing base in the YRD region. Source: Knight Frank Research, Shanghai Hongqiao Central Business District Administration Committee 03

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? What are the government s plans? A Strategic Development Area The development of the Hongqiao CBD has been laid out in the 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015) to transform the area and attract industries which it sees as crucial to Shanghai s continued long-term growth. This development is in line with the Central Government s economic restructuring plans which seek to reduce exports and investment as a share of GDP, fostering the growth of domestic and international trade, raising domestic consumption, and placing greater emphasis towards producing value added products and services as China s rising labour costs and technical expertise move the country up the global supply chain. Targets have been set regarding disposable income growth, job creation in urban areas, the development of modern service industries, advanced manufacturing, and Strategic Emerging Industries (SEI s) growth. These policies will drive up demand for office space which will be offered in abundance within Hongqiao CBD. The HTH integrates high-speed rail (HSR) as well as air, metro and road links into a single massive hub, with Maglev links planned in the future. It currently handles in excess of 600,000 passengers a day and this figure is expected to increase to 1.1 million by 2020. Metro line 2 and 10 are currently linked to the HTH, while metro line 5, 17, and 20 are expected to start operating before 2018. The expansion of the HSR system has halved the commute time to nearby urban centres of Nanjing and Hangzhou to 90 minutes and 45 minutes respectively. The HTH has also increased connectivity with the rest of China as a whole, and will form a core part of the national HSR network that connects urban centres across China s coastal and inland provinces. Chart 2: Hongqiao CBD location in Shanghai Core CBD CBD Hongqiao CBD * Source: Knight Frank Research, Shanghai Hongqiao Central Business District Administration Committee * Hongqiao, referring to Hongqiao Economic and Technological Development Zone in Changning District, was the frist central business district area in Shanghai. 04

KnightFrank.com.cn The Development Plan Hongqiao CBD covers 86.6 square kilometres (sq km), crosses four districts Minhang, Changning, Qingpu and Jiading and is divided into two parts: the 27.3 sq km Major Function Area, composed of the core area and the HTH; and the 59.3 sq km future Expansion Area which is divided into three parts including North Hongqiao, South Hongqiao and West Hongqiao. Phase I, the North Section, the South Section and the National Exhibition Arena, representing the four mixedused sections of the Core Area, has a combined planned GFA of 5.32 million sqm above ground as well as another 2.6 million sqm underground. Phase I, which is set for completion in 2014-2015, has a GFA of 1.7 million sqm above ground, of which 58% is dedicated to office space, 23% to retail, and 19% comprising of hotels and exhibition. Phase I places an emphasis on high quality office space, highend retail and luxury hotels. All plots in Phase I will be connected with an underground tunnel network and an elevated walkway that links directly to the HTH. The National Exhibition Arena is a joint project between the Ministry of Commerce and the Shanghai Municipal Government. The project has a total gross floor area of 2.0 million sqm and more than 500,000 sqm of exhibition area above ground. All the plots in Core Area South Section and North Section have been sold over past two years. The plots in the South Section have been zoned almost exclusively as office use. Core Area North Section has been zoned to incorporate office, retail and residential target tenants. The Expansion area is expected to be home to high value industries, with future government incentives (stemming for the 12th Five Year Plan) for firms specialising in hightech manufacturing, logistics services, modern services and headquarters. Chart 3: Map of Hongqiao CBD Jiading District Jinghu Highway (G2) North Hongqiao Area Hongqiao CBD Major Function Area Land Area (sq km) HTH N/A 2011 Completion Year South Hongqiao Area Bei di Elevated Highway Changning District Core Area - Phase I 1.43 2014-2015 Core Area - South Section 0.80 2015-2020 Qingpu District Shenhai Highway (G15) National Exhibition Arena West Hongqiao Area Core Area North Section Linear Raiway Outer Ring Road Core Area Phase I Hongqiao Transportation Hub (HTH) Core Area South Section Huyu Highway (G50) Minhang District Outer Ring Road (S20) Core Area - North Section National Exhibition Arena Expansion Area West Hongqiao (Qingpu) South Hongqiao (Minhang) North Hongqiao (Jiading) 1.44 2015-2020 1.04 2014-2015 19 Under redevelopment 28 Under redevelopment 13 Under redevelopment Source: Knight Frank Research, Shanghai Hongqiao Central Business District Administration Committee 05

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? The Development Plan (Continue) The massive Hongqiao CBD project is expected to benefit from its intimate integration with the HTH, forming the backbone of Shanghai s regional travel network. The cargo flow through Hongqiao Airport is expected to surpass one million tons by 2020, up from 430,000 tons in 2012. Businesses are also likely to be attracted by basic advantages, such as the ease of transportation, the high quality of the space and the environmentally-friendly design, which will help reduce overhead costs for prospective tenants. Chart 4: GFA breakdown in Core Area Phase I Retail above ground, 386,397 sqm, 23% Exhibition and Hotel, 328,598 sqm, 19% Office, 988,524 sqm, 58% Note: the finalised GFA subjected to the actual development planning. Source: Knight Frank Research, Shanghai Hongqiao Central Business District Administration Committee Chart 5: Hongqiao Transportation Hub (HTH) West Traffic Centre /Metro High-speed Railway Maglev Station East Traffic Centre Hongqiao Airport Source: Knight Frank Research, Shanghai Hongqiao Central Business District Administration Committee 06

KnightFrank.com.cn What are the challenges and uncertainties? Uncertainties of project completion dates Of the ten developers (excluding Admiral Overseas Corporation which will develop the site mainly for self-use) that are partaking in Phase I, six are primarily residential developers thus the Hongqiao CBD project represents an important expansion into the commercial market for many of these firms. This diversification is partially a result of the 2010 cooling measures on residential properties, but also a result of the firms growing appreciation for diversifying their developments and holdings. For many of these developers which had focused on residential Chart 6: Estimated development schedule in Hongqiao CBD Core Area Phase I There is concern that the Hongqiao CBD will face stiff competition from the influx of new office supply over the coming three years. development, the Hongqiao CBD will introduce a new development strategy which may impact the project position, operation model and timeframe of the project. In addition, some of the interlinking public infrastructure, such as the passenger underground channel, the new metro line and public transfer system are still under construction and may not be aligned with the developers target timeframe. According to the public development schedule, excluding Shui On s The Hub, which will be completed before the end of 2014, most of the projects in Hongqiao Core Area Phase I are Plot No. Developer Development Schedule 1 Lihpao 2014Q3-2015Q3 3N 2 Macalline 2014Q3-2015Q3 9 1 2 4 3S 6 Hongqiao Transportation Hub 3N 3S 4 Kingdom Vanke Vantone Sunny World 2015Q3-2015Q4 2015Q2-2015Q3 2015Q2-2015Q4 5 Longfor 2014Q4-2015Q4 6 Shui On 2014Q1-2014Q4 5 7 Hongqiao Public Affairs building 7 AOC 2014Q2-2015Q1 7 Rainbow 2014Q2-2015Q3 8 7 Sanxiang 2014Q4-2015Q4 9 78 Source: Knight Frank Research, Shanghai Hongqiao Central Business District Administration Committee 07

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? scheduled to be completed from the mid of 2014 to the end of 2015, but we expect that the final handover of construction will likely be delayed 10 to 24 months based on our survey with the developers. Development focus shifted to Pudong Recently, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ) was officially launched in Pudong which has caught significant global attention. The government will open the foreign investment access to a variety of sectors including finance, shipping, trading, as well as professional, cultural and social services in Shanghai s FTZ. Shanghai s FTZ will also provide a more comprehensive range of tax friendly facilities than bonded zones, and is expected to offer foreign-denominated offshore banking, financial leasing, cross-border financing, and international trade settlements. Though the Hongqiao CBD may attract some tenants from Shanghai s FTZ due to their logistics concentration, Shanghai s FTZ will be more attractive for trading, service and manufacturing industries in the short-to-mid-term. In terms of preferential policies, economic position and international influence, we believe the Shanghai s FTZ will become a competitive threat for the Hongqiao CBD s ability to attract tenant demand. Financial pressure Most of the developers of Core Area Phase I have partnered with external investors and funds to lower overall project risk. With the government tightening lending policies, some developers are now considering selling their share of the project en bloc or by strata titling to investors and end-users upon completion of the projects to support cash flow. Selling of ownership to various private owners may lead to a mismatch in leasing and property management strategies, which will negatively impact the overall tenant mix, ambience and sustainability of the project. The tightened lending policy has also made it a challenge for developers to finance construction. The high average land price of the nine plots in Phase I ranged between RMB22.0 million and 26.8 million per mu due to optimistic market expectations. In the same timeframe, the land price in the adjacent outer-ring road area reached less than half the price of RMB10.7 million per mu on the Shanghai commercial land market. Furthermore, due to the massive development planning, most of the projects in Phase I have a total GFA exceeding 300,000 sqm and the total investment of each project will be between RMB4.0 billion and RMB6.0 billion respectively. *Terminal 2 of Shanghai Hongqiao Airport Building Restrictions Core Area Phase I has strict government guidelines which require all developers to achieve either LEED certification or China s 3-star sustainability rating. The construction costs resulting from adhering to the LEED sustainability guidelines will increase total average cost by an additional 8-13% depending on design and materials. Another restriction is the building height limit of 38-43 metres due to the proximity of the Hongqiao airport, and a required plot ratio of approximately 3.0. For a typical office design, standard slab-toslab floor heights range between 3.8 and 4.5 m, which translates to only 8 to 9 floors including A/C units located on the roof. This greatly diminishes the flexibility and efficiency on building designs. As such, given high land prices, limited floor area and office sustainability guidelines, we expect that many developers will be asking rental prices similar to those of Shanghai s CBD Grade-A office buildings. 08

KnightFrank.com.cn Softened demand versus huge supply Chart 7.1: Shanghai Grade-A office supply (2014-2016) The Hongqiao CBD will add approximately 990,000 sqm of Grade-A office space for lease or pre-lease to Shanghai s office supply in 2014-2016. This is on top of 1.64 million sqm becoming available in Shanghai s CBD areas and another 2.49 million sqm in secondary and emerging business districts. In addition to the completion of Shanghai s tallest building, the Shanghai Tower, Corporate Avenue Phase II, Century Grand Metropolis and Two ICC are to add approximately 210,000 sqm, 59,000 sqm, 110,000 sqm and 60,000 sqm respectively to the market. Secondary business district 17% CBD 32% Source: Knight Frank Research Emerging business district 51% Hongqiao CBD 23% Other emerging business district 28% Chart 7.2: Shanghai Grade-A office area Core CBD CBD Secondary business district Emerging business district Source: Knight Frank Research 09

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? On the demand side, the average annual absorption of Grade-A office space in the last three years was approximately 840,000 sqm in Shanghai. We believe unless there are new domestic or overseas stimulus factors, it will be a challenge to keep pace with the significant influx of new supply between 2014 and 2016. Commercial tenants seeking quality office space will have multiple options in a more tenant favored environment. Office rentals in Hongqiao CBD are therefore set to start in a competitive setting, giving occupiers the upper hand in lease negotiations, while landlords are likely to offer additional lease incentives such as discounted rents, and longer, more flexible lease terms to potential occupiers. (For more information about future office market in Shanghai, please refer to Knight Frank research report, Shanghai Office Market in 2020.) Relocation cost for tenants From a strictly financial point of view, the cost of tenants relocating outside of the Shanghai core CBDs may result in significant savings when one considers the average rental variance of Grade-A stock between CBD and emerging business districts such as Hongqiao CBD to be approximately RMB3.0-4.0 per sqm per day. Due to the influx of supply during 2014 to 2016, it is expected that the average Grade-A office rental in Shanghai will face a downward trend from RMB9.1 per sqm per day in 2013 to RMB8.7 per sqm per day in 2016. In the same timeframe, we expect the average rental in Hongqiao CBD will remain stable at RMB5.5-6.0 per sqm per day despite vacancy pressure due to their high development costs. Unless the landlords are willing to accept a substantial reduction on rent, the assumption that tenants from competing districts will come rushing into Hongqiao CBD, may be overstated. However, business decisions are not solely rental-focused. There will be those interested in the Hongqiao CBD because of other factors such as the close connectivity with YRD, proximity to their manufacturing and logistic facilities as well as the need to consolidate or develop an headquarter presence. The average rental in Hongqiao CBD will remain stable at RMB5.5-6.0 per sqm per day. Unless the landlords are willing to accept a substantial reduction on rent, the assumption that tenants from competing districts will come rushing into Hongqiao CBD, may be overstated. The other cost that corporates need take into account is to minimise attrition as staff to move to the emerging business district, particularly expatriate employees. The increasing demand from expatriates has raised the residential rental price to RMB175 per sqm per month and the inflow of expatriates into Shanghai is expected to remain stable. The Hongqiao area has traditionally been an important community for expatriates due to it containing 55% of the total number of international schools in Shanghai and easy access to the Shanghai core CBD areas. However, as the future residential supply in Hongqiao CBD is limited and corporate housing budgets have generally been tightened in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, finding suitable accommodation for the expatriates will become increasingly challenging. Chart 8: Estimated Rental Trend of Grade-A offices in Shanghai (2012-2017E) 10 8 6 4 2 0 RMB/sqm/day 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Source: Knight Frank Research Shanghai Overall Hongqiao Hongqiao CBD 10

KnightFrank.com.cn What companies can benefit from the Hongqiao CBD project? With a well-rounded development plan and direct access to the HTH, the Hub and other developing plots in Hongqiao CBD may attract MNC s seeking wellintegrated, high quality new office premise and firms seeking an alternative hub with a footprint throughout the YRD region. In October 2010, Shui On Land, one of the few experienced mixed-use developers of the Hongqiao CBD, was the first to secure a plot directly adjacent to the HTH, and will likely set the standard for pricing, design, infrastructure and target tenant mix for other developers. The development of Shui On, which is now being marketed as The Hub, has four office towers, in which three buildings are scheduled to be completed in early 2014, with the last building due to be completed by the end of 2014. There will also be a shopping mall which is scheduled to be completed in December 2014. Shui On has established an asset management company China Xintiandi that will oversee The Hub, which bodes well for long term property management qualityand project enhancement. Value-added services such as airport check-in and high-speed railway ticket bookings will be made available through the hotel and shopping mall components of The Hub, similar to the services provided by The Elements and Maritime Square in Hong Kong. With a well-rounded development plan and direct access to the HTH, the Hub and other developing plots in Hongqiao CBD may attract MNC s seeking wellintegrated, high quality new office premise and firms seeking an alternative hub with a footprint throughout the YRD region. Relocating offices from a downtown location to the Hongqiao CBD will shorten commute time to other YRD cities and lower business operation costs overall. *Aerial view of Hongqiao CBD Core Area 11

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? The area will provide unparalleled advantages for firms seeking to consolidate into second-tier cities which have direct HSR links to the HTH and will benefit directly from their integration with Hongqiao CBD. Firms with back offices in other YRD cities With rising production costs in firsttier cities across China, many firms are relocating or considering moving office operations to second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and Ningbo, where wages and rents are lower, in an effort to both expand into new markets and cut costs. Hongqiao CBD s integration with the HTH will make it desirable for firms either currently doing business or considering doing business in the greater YRD region. The area will provide unparalleled advantages for firms seeking to consolidate into second-tier cities which have direct HSR links to the HTH. This benefit will be felt in all sectors of the property market, though most substantially in the office, retail and residential markets. Currently, sectors with strong domestic growth in the YRD include the automotive, third party logistics, medium-to-heavy manufacturing, warehouse storage and commercial trading sectors. The burgeoning service sector, which has pushed occupancy rates for high quality space to over 95% in traditional business areas, is expected to have high interest in the Hongqiao CBD, as MNC s begin to settle into Hongqiao CBD and require professional services. Fast Moving Customer Goods (FMCG) and retailers, on the other hand, can benefit immediately from the customer flow that the HTH generates within Shanghai and across the country. *Interior of Shanghai Hongqiao Railway Station 12

KnightFrank.com.cn Multinational corporations We also anticipate significant tenant interest from Japanese and Korean corporates as they want to stay close to their traditional residential and corporate communities in Hongqiao. The 14 international schools within a 14km radius also add attractiveness to the Hongqiao CBD amongst foreign companies. By the end of 2013, Shanghai had a total of 283 foreigninvested enterprises, 445 regional headquarters and 366 foreign R&D centres. The total affiliated companies of MNC s reached almost 1,500. In Jiangsu Province, there were over 200 MNC s regional headquarters and R&D centres and in Zhejiang there were 166 fortune 500 enterprises registered. The amneities and logistics connectivity that the Hongqiao CBD provides will cater for these MNC s. In addition, the Government will provide special incentives to support the headquarters and modern service industry moving into the Hongqiao CBD including tax deductions and office rental subsidies. Given these demand fundamentals, it is likely that office rentals in Hongqiao CBD will increase in the medium run along with the absorption of space in the area. MNC s will then have to compete with stronger demand from domestic firms, which will increasingly come to appreciate the benefits of the Hongqiao CBD s high quality space, convenient transportation, and comprehensive amenities in aiding in their efforts of hiring and retaining qualified staff, a widely reported problem facing many firms operating in China. Conclusion Located in the west part of Shanghai, HTH links YRD region together firmly and anchors the Hongqiao CBD as China s gateway to the Shanghai and YRD region. The business synergies between these provinces and cities will become easier and more efficient. The Hongqiao CBD is poised to become one of the most influential business districts and will be a positive balancing factor for the broader property market. However, we believe the completion timeframe, design quality and marketing strategy of the Hongqiao CBD may face challenges related to tightened lending policies, building specification restrictions, expected delays in interlinking infrastructure and many of the developers limited experience of building mixed-use properties. Furthermore, the overall demand will also face the huge inflow of new office supply in 2014-2016. During this timeframe, there will be over 4.0 million sqm of Grade-A office space added to the market on top of Hongqiao CBD. we are encountering the third construction boom after the last two peaks in 2008 and 2012 and we believe that Shanghai s Grade-A office vacancy rate will increase to 13%-16% during this period. Thus, the Hongqiao CBD will face pressure on asset performance from the other competitive business districts. In the medium to long term, despite these challenges and uncertainty amidst a slow global recovery, the Hongqiao CBD s underlying demand fundamentals and its proximity to the HTH will make it an appealing destination for international and domestic firms seeking to do business in Shanghai and the YRD region. Government policies will benefit key industries and help sustain demand over the next few years, calming fears of a market oversupply. The reduction in logistics costs and unparalleled selection of connectivity options link the Hongqiao CBD regionally and internationally which will be welcomed by all businesses in China. 13

HONGQIAO CBD: READY TO TAKE OFF? Knight Frank Knight Frank is the world s leading independent real estate consultancy, specialising in all aspects of the prime residential and commercial markets of the world. Founded in London in 1896 as a valuations, surveying and auctions business, Knight Frank now provides lients with global coverage via over 330 offices and 12,500 staff throughout Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas. Knight Frank had a presence in the Greater China property market since 1972, with offices in Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Macau offering high quality professional advice and solutions across a comprehensive portfolio of property services. Today the firm is the leading owner-operated real estate consultancy practice in Greater China, covering the residential and commercial markets in over 110 cities. Our services include: Acquisitions, Sales & Leasing Asset Management & Investment Building and Facilities Management Corporate Residential Services Development Consultancy Government Negotiation International Project Marketing Investment Landlord Project Services Portfolio Optimisation Project Management Research & Consultancy Retail Services Valuation As an independent consultancy, Knight Frank has a partnership culture that puts our clients first. Our team of surveyors, appraisers, planners, architects, engineers, and experts in marketing, investment, operations and property management, hotel management provide clients with tailored professional advice. We back this up with industry leading technology and market research. 14

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虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞?

虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞? 概述 作为上海最重要的战略发展区域之一, 虹桥商务区的建设一直是上海政府工作的重中之重 虹桥商务区项目有望依托紧邻虹桥交通枢纽的优势, 成为上海区域交通网络的支柱 虹桥商务区由两个主体部分组成 主功能区和扩展区 主功能区为新规划的开发区块,2014-2015 年预计新增约 170 万平方米的办公 商铺和酒店面积,2015 年到 2020 年间计划再建 130 万平方米的商务面积 巨大的供给竞争 建筑上的限制以及竣工日程的不确定性都给虹桥商务区带来诸多挑战 对于很多开发商而言, 虹桥商务区将引入新的开发策略, 可能会对项目定位 运营模式及项目进程产生影响 长远来看, 毗邻虹桥交通枢纽 成熟的设施和基建优势将会吸引来自汽车 第三方物流 仓储业 服务型公司 商品贸易等各个行业的国际及国内企业 对那些希望进驻上海 / 长三角地区 节省成本 有合并及升级物业需求的企业来讲, 这无疑是个好消息 * 虹桥商务区核心区一期能源中心图片来源 : 上海虹桥商务区管理委员会 02

KnightFrank.com.cn 简介 尽管全球经济形势尚存在不确定性, 经常账户 ( 外贸净收入 ) 急剧恶化, 但 2013 年, 中国国内生产总值成功保持 7.7% 的强劲增长, 使过去八年复合年增长率 (CAGR) 稳居 10% 以上的高速 中国国内生产总值中的 20% 是由长三角地区贡献的,2013 年该地区共实现总产值人民币近 12 万亿元 作为毗邻长三角腹地的主要金融中心, 上海自然成为长三角的商业枢纽 近年来, 很多工业企业都选择 西迁, 这一迁移有诸多优势 : 租金和人工成本更低 离企业制造基地更近 去往其它长三角主要城市的交通时间减少 土地供给更为充足, 当地政府也为制造 物流 贸易等行业提供更优惠的税收政策 写字楼市场的发展也顺应这种趋势, 越来越多的公司选择离开主要商务区域 由于政府大力发展虹桥交通枢纽, 虹桥商务区将成为西向扩张的原点 虹桥商务区有望发展成为上海西部的新中心以及长三角地区的枢纽地 但鉴于同期上海其它区甲级写字楼供给预计也会大幅增加, 人们对该地区的需求情况有所担忧 为进一步拉近与长三角其它城市的距离并将地理优势转变成发展优势, 上海政府于 2006 年开始建设虹桥交通枢纽项目 打造集航空 高铁 本地地铁及磁悬浮于一体的综合交通枢纽 该项目于 2011 年正式运营 扩展后的虹桥交通枢纽最终将成为世界最大的交通枢纽, 总建筑面积达 150 万平方米 2011-2013 年年间, 利用该枢纽出行的乘客从 1.82 亿猛增至 2.5 亿 图 1: 虹桥商务区在长三角的位置图 随着浦东和浦西主要商务区域的发展成熟, 商业区不断向外围拓展 依托虹桥交通网络的升级及靠近多个长三角制造基地的地理优势, 上海西部将成为未来商业发展的重要区域 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部, 上海虹桥商务区管理委员会 03

虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞? 政府有哪些规划? 战略发展区域 虹桥商务区的开发在十二五计划 (2011-2015 年 ) 期间全面展开, 旨在改造该地区, 吸引对上海长期持续增长起到重要作用的产业 这与中央政府在当前劳动力成本上升 专业技术将中国带入世界供应链的背景下, 要求调整经济结构的计划相一致 该计划的重点目标在于降低出口和投资占国内生产总值的比重 促进国内和国际贸易增长 提高内需 扶持生产高附加值产品及服务 政府已针对提高可支配收入, 增加城镇就业, 发展现代服务行业 先进制造业和 战 略新兴行业 等方面制定了具体目标 这些政策都将推升对写字楼的需求, 而虹桥商务区大量的写字楼可谓应运而生 虹桥交通枢纽将高铁 航空 地铁 公路交通完美结合在一起, 未来还计划增加磁悬浮 如今, 这一交通枢纽每天服务逾 60 万名旅客, 到 2020 年日客流量将增加至 110 万 目前, 地铁 2 号线和 10 号线均可到达,5 号线 17 号线 20 号线在 2018 年前将会投入运营 高铁系统的发展将上海到邻近城市的交通时间缩短一半, 现在, 到南京最快只需 90 分钟, 到杭州仅需 45 分钟 虹桥交通枢纽也提高了上海与全国的连通性, 它将成为国家高铁网络的核心组成部分, 连接沿海城市中心与内陆省份 图 2: 虹桥商务区在上海的位置 核心中央商务区中央商务区虹桥商务区 * 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部, 上海虹桥商务区管理委员会 * 虹桥指的是长宁区虹桥经济技术开发区, 是上海第一个中央商务区 04

KnightFrank.com.cn 发展规划 虹桥商务区占地 86.6 平方公里, 跨闵行 长宁 青浦和嘉定四个区, 分为两个部分 :27.3 平方公里的主功能区 ( 由核心区和虹桥交通枢纽组成 ) 和 59.3 平方公里的扩展区 扩展区包括北虹桥 南虹桥和西虹桥三个区块 面积将达 170 万平方米, 其中 58% 为写字楼,23% 为商铺,19% 为酒店和会展面积 核心区一期以高质量写字楼 高端零售和高档酒店为主 所有建筑地块均由地下通道和空中廊道相连, 直接通往虹桥交通枢纽 已经售罄, 南片区几乎全部用于建设写字楼 北片区被规划为集写字楼 商铺和住宅为一体的综合建筑群 扩展区计划用于高科技制造 物流服务 现代服务和其它企业总部等享有政府优惠政策 ( 参见十二五计划 ) 的高价值行业 核心区由一期 北片区 南片区和国家会展中心这四个多功能区组成, 地上总建筑面积达 532 万平方米, 地下总建筑面积为 260 万平方米 核心区一期将于 2014-2015 年竣工, 届时其地上总建筑 国家会展中心是商务部和上海市政府的联合项目, 总建筑面积达 200 万平方米, 其中地上展区超过 50 万平方米 核心区南片区和北片区地块在过去两年 图 3: 虹桥商务区地图 嘉定区 京沪高速 (G2) 北虹桥 虹桥商务区 主功能区 占地面积 ( 平方公里 ) 竣工年份 南虹桥 长宁区 虹桥交通枢纽 N/A 2011 北翟高架路 外环路 (S20) 核心区 - 一期 1.43 2014-2015 核心区 - 南片区 0.80 2015-2020 青浦区 沈海高速 (G15) 国家会展中心 西虹桥 外环路 核心区北片区 核心区一期 核心区南片区 虹桥交通枢纽 沪渝高速 (G50) 闵行区 核心区 - 北片区 1.44 2015-2020 国家会展中心 1.04 2014-2015 扩展区西虹桥 ( 青浦 ) 19 升级改造中 南虹桥 ( 闵行 ) 28 升级改造中 北虹桥 ( 嘉定 ) 13 升级改造中 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部, 上海虹桥商务区管理委员会 05

虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞? 发展规划 ( 续 ) 图 4: 核心区一期各部分建筑面积细分图 与虹桥交通枢纽毗邻并互相贯通将使虹桥商务区项目从中大大受益, 从而形成上海区域交通网络的支柱 截至 2020 年, 虹桥机场的货运量有望从 2012 年的四十三万吨增至逾百万吨 便利的交通 高质量的空间和环保的设计等基础优势都将吸引更多商机, 减少准租户的间接成本 商业 386,397 平方米 23% 会展 328,598 平方米 19% 写字楼 988,524 平方米 58% 注 : 最终建筑面积取决于实际开发规划资料来源 : 莱坊研究部, 上海虹桥商务区管理委员会 图 5: 虹桥交通枢纽 西交通中心 / 地铁 高铁磁悬浮东交通中心虹桥机场 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部, 上海虹桥商务区管理委员会 06

KnightFrank.com.cn 面临哪些挑战和不确定性? 项目竣工时间不确定 图 6: 虹桥商务区核心区一期预计开发日程表 有人担忧随着未来三年新写 字楼源源不断投放市场, 虹 桥商务区将面临激烈竞争 参与核心区一期建设的十个开发商中 ( 除了冠捷投资开发该地主要作为自用 ), 六个之前都主营住宅开发 因此, 虹桥商务区项目对这些公司来说是迈向商业地产开发的重要一步 开发商 作出多样化投资的部分原因是由于 2010 年住宅房产降温政策, 同时也由于这些 公司认识到了扩大业务范围和持有多种 物业的益处 对于之前专注于住宅的开 发商而言, 虹桥商务区将引入新的开发 策略, 希望藉此对项目定位 运营模式 及项目进程产生积极影响 除此之外, 地下人行通道 新地铁线和公共换乘系统等一些互连公共基础设施仍在建设之中, 可能无法和开发商的计划进程保持一致 根据公共开发计划, 虹桥商务区核心区一期大多数项目计划于 2014 年年中至 2015 年年底完工 ( 瑞安的虹桥天地将于 2014 年年底前完工 ) 但基于对开发商的调研, 我们预计最终竣工将延误 10-24 个月 通虹路 3N 地块号开发商开发日程表 1 丽宝建设股份有限公司 2014Q3-2015Q3 2 红星美凯龙 2014Q3-2015Q3 9 1 2 4 3S 6 虹桥交通枢纽 3N 3S 4 金臣地产 万科 万通新地 2015Q3-2015Q4 2015Q2-2015Q3 2015Q2-2015Q4 5 龙湖集团 2014Q4-2015Q4 6 瑞安集团 2014Q1-2014Q4 嘉闵高架路 5 7 虹桥公共事务大楼 7 冠捷投资有限公司 2014Q2-2015Q1 7 申虹 2014Q2-2015Q3 8 97 上海三湘股份有限公司 2014Q4-2015Q4 78 来源 : 莱坊研究部, 上海虹桥商务区管理委员会 07

虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞? 开发重点转向浦东 建设限制 近期, 中国 ( 上海 ) 自由贸易试验区 ( 自贸区 ) 在浦东正式启动引得全球瞩目 政府将会打开该自贸区内包括金融 海运 贸易以及专业服务 文化和社会服务等多个领域的外资进入渠道 上海自贸区也将提供比保税区更为广泛优惠的税收措施, 同时有望设立外资控股离岸银行 融资租赁 跨境融资和国际贸易结算 尽管虹桥商务区可能因其物流集中优势而吸引一些来自于上海自贸区的租户, 但短期到中期来看, 对于贸易 服务和制造行业来说, 自贸区依然更具吸引力 从优惠政策 经济定位 国际影响力来看, 我们相信上海自贸区会对虹桥商务区在吸引租户方面构成威胁 资金压力 贷款政策收紧也对开发商的工程融资带来考验 市场的乐观预期使得核心区一期九个地块以每亩人民币 2,200 万元 -2,680 万元的高价成交 同期, 在上海商办用地市场上, 周边外环路附近的地价只有不到其一半, 每亩仅约合人民币 1,070 万元 除此之外, 因为大规模的开发规划, 大多数核心区一期项目总建筑面积超过 30 万平方米, 每个项目总投资将达人民币 40 亿元 -60 亿元之间 核心区一期项目严格受制于政府的规划要求 所有开发商必须达到 LEED 认证或中国三星可持续评级 根据设计和材料使用的不同, 为达到 LEED 可持续性标准所增加的工程成本将总体成本平均推高 8-13% 由于地理上与虹桥机场十分靠近, 另一个条件是建筑限高在 38-43 米之间, 容积率需在 3.0 左右 典型的写字楼层高为 3.8-4.5 米, 这意味着即便包括屋顶空调机组, 也只能建 8-9 层 这大大减少了建筑设计上的灵活性和效率 在高地价 有限的空间和写字楼可持续性要求的影响下, 我们估计很多开发商很可能会开出和上海中央商务区甲级写字楼相近的租金价格 大多数核心区一期开发商都与外部投资者和基金寻求合作以求降低整体项目风险 如今政府收紧贷款政策, 一些开发商正考虑在项目竣工后向投资者及客户整售或者散售项目份额来支持现金流 将所有权出售给各类私人所有者可能会导致租赁和物业管理策略的不协调, 影响整体租户的品质 环境和项目的可持续性 * 上海虹桥机场 2 号航站楼 08

KnightFrank.com.cn 需求疲软而供给过多 图 7.1: 上海甲级写字楼供给预测 (2014-2016) 根据当前建筑进度,2014-2016 年间虹桥 商务区将有约 99 万平方米甲级写字楼可 供租赁和预租, 而届时上海中央商务区也将有 164 万平方米新增供应投放市场, 次级商务区 17% 且次级和新兴商务区还会新增 249 万平方米 上海第一高楼上海中心 企业天地二期 世纪大都会 环贸广场二座在竣工后将分别为市场增加约 21 万平方米 5.9 万 中央商务区 32% 新兴商务区 51% 虹桥商务区 23% 其他新兴商务区 28% 平方米 11 万平方米和 6 万平方米的办公 空间 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 图 7.2: 上海甲级写字楼区域分布 核心中央商务区中央商务区次级商务区新兴商务区 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 09

虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞? 在需求层面上, 过去三年上海市场平均每年能够吸纳约 84 万平方米的甲级写字楼面积 除非有新的国内或海外刺激因素, 否则很难消化 2014-2016 年间大量投放的新写字楼 在租户占据主导地位的大环境下, 商业租户在选择优质写字楼时拥有多种选择 因此, 虹桥商务区的写字楼租赁势必面临挑战 在租约谈判时, 租户占上风, 业主可能需要提供更多的租赁优惠, 比如租金折扣或是更长期更灵活的租期 ( 欲了解更多未来上海写字楼市场信息, 请参阅莱坊研究报告 2020 年上海写字楼市场 ) 租户搬迁成本 严格从财务角度来讲, 考虑到上海核心中央商务区甲级写字楼的租金比虹桥等新兴商务区的租金平均高出每天每平方米人民币 3.0-4.0 元, 搬离市中心商务区会大大节约成本 随着 2014-2016 年间新写字楼涌入市场, 甲级写字楼平均租金预计将从 2013 年的每天每平方米人民币 9.1 元降至 2016 年的每天每平方米人民币 8.7 元 同时, 尽管高开发成本带来空置压力, 我们认为上海虹桥商务区整体租金将会稳定在每天每平方米人民币 5.5-6.0 元 当然, 除非虹桥商务区的业主愿意大幅削减租金, 否则租户从竞争区域蜂涌入驻虹桥商务区的设想似乎也有些言过其实 但租金并不是吸引租户的唯一决定因 公司需要考虑的另一项成本是如何将员 素 和长三角的紧密连通性 毗邻自身 工 ( 尤其是外籍员工 ) 搬至新兴商务区 生产制造基地 优越的物流设施以及合 所产生的损耗降至最低 日益增加的外 并业务或设立总部的需求也会吸引一些 企业入驻虹桥商务区 我们认为上海虹桥商务区整体 租金将会稳定在每天每平方米 人民币 5.5-6.0 元 当然, 除非 虹桥商务区的业主愿意大幅削 减租金, 否则租户从竞争区域 图 8: 上海甲级写字楼租金预期走势 (2012-2017 预计 ) 蜂涌入驻虹桥商务区的设想似 乎也有些言过其实 籍人员租赁需求将上海的住宅租赁价格推高至每月每平方米人民币 175 元, 而进入上海的外籍人员数量也将继续保持稳定 由于上海 55% 的国际学校都聚集于虹桥地区周边, 去往市中心的交通也十分便利, 虹桥一直是外籍人士首选的居住社区之一 不过, 未来虹桥商务区的住宅供给有限, 加之全球金融危机背景下公司住房补贴普遍收紧, 公司为外籍 人员找到合适住所将难上加难 每天每平方米人民币 上海平均 虹桥 虹桥商务区 10 8 6 4 2 0 2012 2013 2014 预计 2015 预计 2016 预计 2017 预计 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 10

KnightFrank.com.cn 哪些公司能够从虹桥商务区项目中获益? 全面的开发计划 直达虹桥交 通枢纽的便利, 使得虹桥商务 区内虹桥天地及其他开发项目 能够吸引正在寻找设施完善 高品质办公地点的跨国企业, 也能吸引那些在长三角多地拥 有办公室的公司 2010 年 10 月, 作为虹桥商务区内少数拥有综合性物业开发经验的开发商, 瑞安地产首先拿下了与虹桥交通枢纽直接相连的地块, 并极有可能为其他开发商在价格 设计 基建 目标租户群方面树立标准 瑞安的开发项目 虹桥天地 共有四座写字楼, 其中三座将在 2014 年年初竣工, 最后一座计划于 2014 年尾竣工 这一项目还包含了一座购物中心, 计划于 2014 年年末完工 瑞安建立了一个资产管理公司 中国新天地, 由其负责 虹桥天地 的运营管理, 为长期管理质量 提升项目形象保驾护航 虹桥天地将通过酒店和购物中心为用户提供增值服务, 包括办理机场登机手续和高铁票务预订, 与香港圆方广场 青衣城所提供的服务类似 全面的开发计划 直达虹桥交通枢纽的便利, 使虹桥天地及虹桥商务区的其它开发地块能够吸引正在寻找设施完善 高品质办公地点的跨国企业, 也能吸引那些在长三角多地拥有业务而又希望设立区域总部的公司 将办公室从市中心搬至虹桥商务区将会大幅缩减前往其它长三角城市的交通时间, 减少整体运营成本 * 虹桥商务区核心区鸟瞰图 11

虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞? 在其它长三角城市设立后勤部门的公司 对于那些希望进军二线城市的 公司, 与虹桥交通枢纽相连的 虹桥商务区具有无可比拟的优 势, 此类企业将从虹桥商务区 所处的便捷地理位置中直接获 益 伴随着中国一线城市生产成本的不断攀升, 很多公司已经或是正在考虑将办公室搬至二线城市, 如杭州 南京 苏州和宁波 在这些城市, 薪资和租金更为低廉 这一举措不仅能节约成本, 同时也有助于开拓新市场 虹桥商务区与虹桥交通枢纽的结合恰符合现在正在或考虑在长三角地区开展业务的公司之需求 对于那些希望进军二线城市的公司, 与虹桥交通枢纽相连的虹桥商务区具有无可比拟的优势, 此类企业将从虹桥商务区所处的便捷地理位置中直接获益 整个物业市场, 尤其是写字楼 商铺和住宅市场也都将体会到这一优势 当前, 长三角地区内汽车 第三方物流 中型重型制造业 仓储和商业贸易等行业的国内增长最为迅猛 蓬勃发展的服务业已将传统商务区的高品质写字楼入住率推高至 95%, 由于跨国公司已经开始入驻虹桥商务区, 并对专业服务产生需求, 专业服务类企业将对入驻虹桥商务区产生很大兴趣 ; 另一方面, 快速消费品行业和零售商也可直接受益于虹桥交通枢纽在上海乃至全国范围内带来的巨大客流 * 上海虹桥火车站内部图 12

KnightFrank.com.cn 跨国公司 我们预计, 因想要靠近其在虹桥的既有住宅及公司群体, 日本和韩国公司也会对虹桥商务区表现出浓厚兴趣 14 公里内的 14 间国际学校更是增加了对于外资公司的吸引力 截止 2013 年底, 上海共有 283 家外资公司 445 个地区总部和 366 个外资研发中心 近 1,500 家跨国公司的分支机构 江苏省共有逾 200 家跨国企业的区域总部和研发中心, 浙江省亦录得 166 家五百强企业落户 虹桥商务区完善的设施以及物流交通的便利贯通将更能满足这些跨国公司的需求 除此之外, 政府也将提供包括税收减免和办公室租金补贴等特殊奖励, 以支持企业总部和现代服务行业入驻虹桥商务区 总结 虹桥交通枢纽位于上海西部, 将长三角各地区紧密连接在一起, 并使虹桥商务区成为中国进入上海和长三角的门户 这些省份和城市间的商业协力发展将会变得更加容易 更加高效 虹桥商务区蓄势待发, 将成为最有影响力的商务区块之一, 同时也会给整个房地产市场带来积极的平衡效应 但由于贷款政策收紧 建筑规格限制 基础设施的竣工延误和开发商建造综合用途建筑的经验有限, 虹桥商务区的交付时间 设计质量和营销策略均面临挑战 尽管存在这些挑战 不确定性及世界经济的缓慢复苏, 中长期来看, 虹桥商务区的潜在需求基本面和毗邻虹桥交通枢纽的地理优势将会吸引众多想要在上海及长三角地区开展业务的本土公司 政府政策将会造福主要产业, 帮助稳定接下来几年的需求, 安抚市场供给过剩的恐慌 物流成本的降低和无可匹敌的区域内及国际连通性会受到中国企业的欢迎 考虑到这些需求基本面, 随着市场存量被不断吸纳, 从中期来看虹桥商务区写字楼的租金可能会有所上升 但之后, 跨国公司将不得不面临来自国内公司强劲需求的竞争, 因此也会逐渐认识到虹桥商务区内高质量的办公空间 便利的交通和完善的设施对于企业雇佣并留住优质人才所起的重要作用 除此之外,2014-2016 年间会有大批新写字楼供给涌入市场, 除虹桥商务区外, 还将新增 400 万平方米甲级写字楼, 这是继 2008 和 2012 年之后的第三次建设高峰 我们相信, 在此期间上海甲级写字楼空置率将攀升至 13%-16% 因此, 在资产表现方面, 虹桥商务区将面临来自其它商务区的竞争压力 13

虹桥商务区 : 正欲蓄势腾飞? 莱坊 莱坊是全球领先的私营房地产顾问服务公司, 专注于全球所有豪宅市场和商用物业市场 莱坊在 1896 年在英国成立时, 主要从事估值 测量和拍卖业务, 现今在欧洲 非洲 中东 美洲和亚太区共有 330 多家办事处和 12,500 多名员工, 为客户提供环球服务 自 1972 年起, 莱坊开始向内地市场拓展业务, 并在北京 上海 广州和澳门开设全资办事处, 为客户提供优质的专业建议和一站式房地产服务 今天, 莱坊是大中华地区领先的私营房地产顾问公司, 服务覆盖在 110 个城市的住宅和商业市场 作为一家独立的咨询公司, 莱坊秉承着客户至上的合作理念 我们的专业团队中不乏测量师 评估师 规划师 建筑师 工程师 营销 招商 运营 物业管理和酒店管理专家, 并拥有行业一流的科技与市场研究, 为客户提供量身定制的专业建议 我们的服务范围包括 : 收购 买卖及租赁 资产管理及投资 物业及设施管理 企业住宅服务 发展顾问 政府洽商 国际项目营销 投资 综合项目顾问及代理服务 组合优化 项目管理 研究及顾问 零售服务 估值 14

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研究报告 最近的市场研究报告 上海 葛汉文董事总经理 +86 21 6032 1700 graham.zink@cn.knightfrank.com 香港 齐良德执行主席 +852 2846 9522 alan.child@hk.knightfrank.com 财富报告 2013- 中文版 大中华物业市场报告 2020 年上海写字楼市场 中国商铺市场观察 可从 www.knightfrank.com/research 获取莱坊研究报告 研究及咨询部 杨悦晨董事, 研究及咨询部主管, 上海 +86 21 6032 1728 regina.yang@cn.knightfrank.com 商业物业代理部 杨松中国区董事 +86 21 6032 1768 benny.yang@cn.knightfrank.com 综合项目顾问及代理服务部 孙俊安中国区董事 +86 21 6032 1758 alan.sun@cn.knightfrank.com 投资与资本市场 曹建中国区董事 +86 21 6032 1708 nick.cao@cn.knightfrank.com 估值 韩艳雯副董事 +86 21 6032 1778 sunny.han@cn.knightfrank.com 林浩文董事, 研究及咨询部主管, 大中华 +852 2846 4819 thomas.lam@hk.knightfrank.com 北京 何金亮董事总经理 +86 10 6113 8011 hengky.nayoan@cn.knightfrank.com 广州 梁伟明执行董事 +852 2846 9593 clement.leung@hk.knightfrank.com 莱坊研究团队向众多商业和住宅物业客户, 包括发展商 投资者 金融机构和企业机构提供策略性建议 市场预测和顾问服务 客户均认为我们按其特定需要提供的专业和独立意见能切合他们的需要 Knight Frank LLP 2014 本文件及其内容只提供一般资料, 可能随时变更而不作另行通知 所有图片只供展示用途 本文件并不表示 意图或暗示任何性质的代表或担保 因使用此资料而直接或间接引致的损失或损毁, 莱坊恕不负责 客户应自行确保数据或内容的完整和准确性 本文件及其内容属莱坊所有, 使用者知悉其中的观点, 概念及建议均属莱坊的知识产权所有, 并受版权保护 除了对上述文件作出评估外, 若非已与莱坊达成协议, 任何人不得以任何原因使用这些内容或其部分 本文件在保密的情况下提供予使用者, 除参与评估此文件的人员外, 恕不得向任何人透露