强 Narasimhan 1995 supply-demand theory assimilationism Portes & Borocz 1989 爲 幷 産 1999 8 15 451 2000 11-12 752 493 2001 5-12 2002 3-4 504 307 1 push and pull theory 衆 (Lee, 1966) (Bagne, 1969) Myrdal, 1969:2139 Trewartha, 1969 爲 况 爲 爲 爲 産 2 1999-2002 50 3% 1995-1998 29 6% 1990-1994 13 5% 1979-1989 6 6% 麽 麽 2000 2002 1 2 1 (2002 ) % 1 54 8 2 52 1 3 48 5 4 43 9 5 38 7 1
6 34 1 7 31 1 8 27 5 9 27 2 10 25 2 11 24 6 12 23 3 13 18 4 14 14 8 15 2 0 2 2000 % 1 62 6 2 62 3 3 58 5 4 57 5 5 54 9 6 37 2 7 35 4 8 34 3 9 26 6 10 25 2 11 21 3 12 16 1 13 5 9 14 2 0 15 0 4 2002 2000 2002 爲 2000 爲 爲 1 2 爲 爲 20 爲麽 1978 2000 况爲 1979 19.91% 1980 19.41% 1981 16.78% 1982 20.90% 1983 14.70% 1984 14.69% 1985 11.91% 1986 6.59% 1987 9.16% 1988 17.79% 1989 10.39% 1990 14.10% 1991 3.25% 1992 10.64% 1993 17.55% 1994 32.49% 1995 29.21% 1996 22.08% 1997 8.52% 1998 3.44% 1999 2.23% 2000 1.94% 2001 304 産 2
30% 2000 1999 1.94% 麽 却 2.9 2.2 2.3 3.6 况 况 爲 麽 3 2002 24000 16 5 9 10000 23999 38 13 9 6500 9999 43 15 8 5000 6499 46 16 8 3000 4999 52 19 0 1000 2999 47 17 2 200 999 4 1 5 16 5 9 11 4 0 273 100 0 2002 8738.3 90.1% 20% 10000 52.4% 5000 爲 麽 Jenkins Jenkins 1977 2000 2002 却 3
noneconomic factors Doshchitsin,-Yu.-P. & Lapin,-N.-N. 1995.1 2 80 90 1 2 50% 6 7 爲 34-35% 麽 麽 3 15 26.6% 7.0% 66.4% 麽 爲 麽 爲 强 1996 2 4 4 Sig. 1.113*.016 455 2000 2.152**.009 290 2002 *p<0.05 **p<0.01 (2-tailed) E. Ravenstien 幷 2000 爲 61.1% 爲 38.9% 2002 爲 63.2% 爲 36.8% 却 5 Sig..191**.002 455 2000 4
.136*.020 290 2002 *p<0.05 **p<0.01 (2-tailed) 30 69.3% 6 Sig. -.298****.000 455 2000 -.192***.003 236 2001 -.294****.000 290 2002 ***p<0.001 ****p<0.0001 (2-tailed) 4 麽 7 幷 7 # 1 2 3 4 5 减 6 7 8 # 1995 12 18 况却 况 况 况 况 8 2000 5
0 439 90.5 1 14 2.9 2 10 2.1 3 8 1.6 4 6 1.2 6 1.2 7 1.2 8 1.2 9 5 1.0 485 100.0 9 2000 0 392 80.3 1 59 12.1 2 22 4.5 3 8 1.6 4 2.4 5 2.4 6 2.4 12 1.2 488 100.0 8 况 9 况 9.5% 却 19.7% 况 况况 况 95% 爲 80 80 20 産 爲 况 幷 60-70 6
爲麽 踪 80 80 爲 够 80 産 爲 况 1984 1985 80 幷 爲 1 爲 1994 11 幷 2001 1-5 爲 够 够 ABC A B C 2001 60-61 1997 4 200 10 麽 2002 7
1 144 2 129 3 90 4 84 5 74 6 61 7 54 8 51 9 48 10 41 10 爲 幷 爲 爲 爲 2 爲 1989 260 衆 却 决 幷爲 爲 幷 却 迹 爲 爲 11 1999 210 89 7 24 10 3 234 100 0 12 2002 8
% 62 20.3 84 27.5 27 8.8 38 12.4 61 19.9 决 17 5.6 17 5.6 306 100.0 12 70% 决 却 life cycle 却 够 爲 綫够爲 3 况 爲 13 16 13 况 2002 % 139 45 4 167 54 6 306 100 0 14 麽 2002 % 45 33 3 67 49 6 9 6 7 9
14 10 4 135 100 0 15 2002 % 111 36 3 195 63 7 306 100 0 16 麽 2002 % 13 12 4 7 6 7 74 70 5 11 10 5 105 100 0 爲 6.7% 爲 够 够 况 life cycle 却 爲 爲 4 Kusuda,-Kyu Kusuda, 1971 154-173 爲 麽 爲强 却 爲 麽 爲 爲 爲 却 幷 却 爲 10
爲 1997 286-290 1 産 Hamilton, 1985 爲 况 爲 爲 爲 爲 爲减 幷爲 爲决 决 爲决 况 幷 2 爲 爲産 爲麽 爲 麽 爲 爲 17 17 2002 Sig. 1.191**.002 260 2 决.141*.021 260 11
3.181**.004 260 4.170*.020 260 *p<0.05 **p<0.01 (2-tailed) 够爲 况 爲 况 爲 118 L 18 L 爲 爲 L 114 G 22 厨 够 128 M 24 M M 幷 M 爲 爲 够 Wu, 1971 44 H 40 H H H 爲 H 麽 爲 89.7% 12
1999 76.7% 23.3% 2002 4 78.3% 3 82% 1000 72.1% 2000 60.1% 爲 够 3 産 爲 爲 麽 麽 爲麽 爲 麽 决 1 爲决 6 爲 19 2002 Sig. A.181**.003 303 B.278****.000 289 C.167**.004 289 D.243****.000 289 E.163**.009 259 F.162**.006 286 G.174**.003 286 **p<0.01 ****p<0.0001 (2-tailed) A. 爲 却 决 强 2001 70-73 B. 况 1997 45 69 107 1996 3 幷 19 却 C. 19 强 13
90 D E F G 够 强 却 爲 爲 爲 爲 强 爲 却 life cycle 幷 却 産 爲 爲 爲 爲 14
爲 1997 2001 2001 9 1997 强 1996 3 1996 6 强 2001 4 64-76 2001 7 2001 6 9 1996 1996 6 1989 Bagne, D.J. Principles of Demography, New York, 1969. Doshchitsin,-Yu.-P. & Lapin,-N.-N.1995 Forced Migration in a Large Industrial City of Siberia Sotsiologicheskie-Issledovaniya, 9 (Total Volume 22), 96-99. Hamilton,-Gary-G. 1985 Temporary Migration and the Institutionalization of Strategy International-Journal-of-Intercultural-Relations 4(Total Volume 9), 405-425. Jenkins, J. Craig 1977 Push/Pull in Recent Mexican Migration to the U.S. International-Migration-Review 2, summer, (Total Volume 11), 178-189. Kusuda,-Kyu 1971 Surplus Population and Mobility of Labor Developing-Economies, 2, Jun, (Total Volume 9), 154-173, Japan. Lee, Everett S. : A Theory of Migration Demography 1966(3), 54, 47-57. Myrdal, G. Asian Drama, Vol. III, 1969. Narasimhan,-S. 1995 Labour Out-Migration to Cities: Search for an Appropriate Theory Man-and-Development 1, Mar, (Total Volume 17) 78-88. Portes,-Alejandro; Borocz,-Jozsef 1989 Contemporary Immigration: Theoretical Perspectives on Its Determinants and Modes of Incorporation International-Migration-Review 3, fall, (Total Volume 11) 606-630. Trewartha, T.J. Mobility and Migration, A Geography of Population: Word Patterns, John Willey, New York, 1969. Wu,-T.-S. 1971 A Framework for the Study of Urban Adaptation in the Process of Rural Migration National-Taiwan-University-Journal-of-Sociology 7, Apr, 43-53. : 100084, : 6279-2601 : 1391-079-0306 15