2002.12.1 intention 1
capability 1 2 1 Michael E. Brown, et. al, eds., 2000, The Rise of China, The MIT Press. 510 2002 2000 15 121-151 2-2002 Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J., Tellis, 2000, Interpreting China s Grand Strategy: Past, Present and Future Santa Monica, CA: Rand 2
2050 3 3 Zbigniew Brzezinski, 1997, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its 3
Normal State 2050 Geostrategic Imperatives, NY: BasicBooks. 4
1894 1900 1949 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 4 4 2002 2001/2002 2002/9 911 2002 2002/5 2010-2012 54 34-45 2001 2000 1997-1998 Michael Pillsbury, 2000, China Debates the Future Security Environment, Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press. 455 (2001) 5
1. 2. 3. WTO 6
4. WTO APEC ASEAN WTO IGO NGO 300 5 5. 911 911 5 2002 911 37-58 7
6 911 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (1) (2) (3) (4) 1. 6 2002 180-200 8
2. 3. 9
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 7 (6) (7) 4. 8 7 2000/10 39 1216 8 Thomas J. Christensen, 2001, China, in Richard J. Ellings and Aaron L. Friedberg, eds., Strategic Asia: Power and Purpose. 499 2002 10
1. (1) 11
12
(2) 13
(3) 9 9 2002 43-9 14
2. (1) 2001 6 16 15
(2) 1994 ARF 1997 2001-16
(3) APEC ASEM 2001 2000 2001 2002 3. 1978 17
WTO FTA (1) (2) / / 18
(3) WTO FTA GDP 4% 33% WTO FTA FTA 30 19
10 (1) (2) (3) 11 realist 10 2002/9 911 11 20
12 13 12 13 21
2001 3 2001 10 2002 2 2002 APEC 2002 22
14 15 WTO 14 2002 9 15 2002/10/25 23
24
2006 25
16 1. 16 2002/10/1 26
1996 2. red line 3. 27
4. 5. 28
2. 1993 1995 17 2002 29
1950 1996 1999 4. 18 18 2002/10/17 30
31
32
33
19 2002/11/3 34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41