G-1006-12625 2011 5
项目支持 : 美国能源基金会项目编号 :G-1006-12625 负责人 : 王万兴联系人 : 袁静 项目研究单位 : 华北电力大学负责人 : 董军项目顾问 : 杨昆孙耀维范必项目组成员 : 张晓春任静唐宇希徐晓琳蒋雪李娜 II
1 1 1... 1 1 1 2... 6 1 1 3... 7 1 2 1... 13 1 2 2... 14 1 2 3... 15 2 1 1... 20 2 1 2... 22 2 1 3... 22 2 1 4... 24 2 1 5... 25 2 1 6... 26 2 2 1... 29 2 2 2... 32 2 2 3... 34 2 2 4... 37 2 3 1... 37 2 3 2... 38 2 3 3... 40 2 3 4... 40 2 4 1... 41 I
2 4 2... 43 2 4 3... 48 2 5 1... 49 2 5 2... 49 2 5 3... 53 2 5 4... 53 2 6 1... 54 2 6 2... 54 2 6 3... 56 2 6 4... 56 2 7 1... 58 2 7 2... 59 2 7 3... 61 4.1.1... 79 4.1.2... 81 II
1 1 1 / CO 2 2020 GDP 2005 40% 45% CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 2010 2015 2.64 6.55 565 248 2015 2020 2.73 6.76 584 256 1 1 1 1 1
1980 2008 102 / 2006 2008 11 / 2000 2008 1.1 g/kwh 400.0 390.0 380.0 370.0 360.0 350.0 340.0 330.0 320.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1.1 2000-2008 2008http: //www. serc.gov.cn 2 1992 7% 2007 5.83% 1.1 1980 6.44% 1980 2008 1992 7% 2008 6000 5.90% 2007 0.07 2008 2007 1.1 1.1 2008 2007 % 2008 2007 2008 2007 5.90 0.36 6.79 5.83 0.42 6.62 0.07 2
% 2008 2007 2008 2007 7.02 1.40 7.14 7.40 1.39 7.51-0.38 7.05-7.05 6.64-6.53 0.41 6.89 1.85 6.90 6.66 1.96 6.67 0.23 8.12 0.36 8.22 7.88 0.45 7.99 0.24 7.79 0.58 7.96 7.67 0.39 7.77 0.12 7.00 1.99 7.18 6.83 1.87 7.00 0.17 7.04 0.98 7.76 6.89 0.85 7.68 0.15 7.33 0.80 7.53 7.55 1.48 7.67-0.22 4.97-4.88 4.80-4.72 0.17 5.56 1.33 5.51 5.61 1.44 5.55-0.05 5.59 0.51 5.77 5.66 0.59 5.83-0.07 5.66 0.81 5.72 5.85 0.66 5.92-0.19 4.33 0.10 5.61 4.36 0.15 5.59-0.03 5.90 1.04 6.50 7.14 1.07 7.72-1.24 7.13-7.14 7.22-7.23-0.09 6.97 0.43 7.22 7.22 0.54 7.55-0.25 2.10 0.12 6.62 2.50 0.13 6.29-0.40 4.55 0.50 6.46 5.12 0.50 7.18-0.57 5.57 0.53 6.18 5.48 0.55 6.01 0.09 2.89 0.34 7.14 3.95 0.40 7.42-1.06 7.46 0.57 8.18 7.94 0.60 8.47-0.48 - - - 7.79 0.73 9.20-4.62 0.41 10.21 3.78 0.46 8.68 0.84 5.76 0.21 7.04 5.74 0.32 6.62 0.02 3.66 0.24 7.29 4.30 0.37 7.23-0.64 3
% 2008 2007 2008 2007 3.55 2.02 9.15 - - - - 6.55 0.44 6.95 6.27 0.41 6.77 0.28 4.89 1.01 6.40 4.27 0.68 5.89 0.62 2.90 0.73 7.14 2.90 0.79 7.19 0.00 7.25 0.46 7.57 - - - - - - - 8.02 1.20 9.20-2008http://www.serc.gov.cn 14 2008 1.2 1.2 20082007 2008http://www.serc.gov.cn 16 2008 1.3 4
1.3 2008 2008http://www.serc.gov.cn 3 2008 6.79% 2007 0.18 2000 1.02 2000 2008 1.4 1.4 2000-2008 2008http://www.serc.gov.cn 5
1 1 2 1 1 SO 2 2008 9712 2008 3.79 66% 2007 73.2% 78.7% 5.5 2010 SO 2 2005 1300 502 61.4% 2 99% 50 / 99% 1980 16.5 / 2008 1.3 / 3 10% 2007 1797.70 14.29% 2007 695 38.7% 549.65 6
30.6% 2015 10 1116 2012 1 1 100 / 2014 1 1 100 / 2 3 60% 1 1 3 1 70% CO 2 95% 2 CO 2 1 2007 8 CO 2 2 2010 7
10% CO 2 CO 2 3Clean Development Mechanism- CDM CO 2 CDM 50% CDM CO 2 3 1 1000 2009 1 42 8.56 30.39 CO 2 17 SO 2 243 2011 2012 2010 8
2020 53 3.36 4.45 2000 2000 2009 5 2020 2011 2020 CO 2 105 61.7% 2.4% 31.8% 4.1% 105 2020 16.5 2020 40% 45% 20% 2 1327 731 55% 9
2008 5314 16 3 IGCC 1065 24.05 19.1 2010 7 75 33 4.95 2015 25% 4 2010 2009 10017.23 60 2002 2 63 47.98% 2219.4 27.13% 40.29 1451.74 343.56 2009 17.95% 2010 330 / 5.5% 16 / 15.23 10
55% 2010 100% CO 2 4000 SO 2 63% 73% 70% 30% 5 2009 12 8203 637.6 0.39 7.77% 534.52 6.52% 5.4 0.07% CO 2 6 2009 7550.73 6239 1235.96 75.43 0.3432 17.37% 30 80% 100 60 60 39.5 4 2015 2600 7000 11
7 CDM 2009 30% AP100 2020 1500 CDM 2010 3 72 8 50% 2008 7 4 3 585 120 465 2008 1853 2010 3000 2010 2007 1433 2008 1613 2007 76% 90% 30 12
8 10 346 20% 15 2008 36 9 19363 2008 45 98% 50% 100% 100% 2010 2 400 2100 130 10 58.7 62 112 2020 1 6000 2000 3000 1000 500 1 2 1 2 1 1.2 13
1.2 1 7 1 1 16 1 2 2 1 2 3 14
2010 4 1 4 5 1 2 3 4 6 1 2 3 2007 8 GDP 2008 3 15
2008 4 3 2009 12 1 3 2011 4 15 2011 16
1 2009 0.638kW 2659.2 333.6 2009 282.19g/kWh 343g/kWh 2020 320g/kWh 312g/kWh 2 ( ) 320 / 20 / 2.0% 2.5% SO 2 17
CO 2 3 10 4 5 2011 4 18
6 19
2 2 1 2007 8 [2007]53 2 1 1 1 GDP 20
20% 10% 2 80 3 1.7 4005 1000 220 3.5 21
1.89 5150 1460 2015 500 3.6 9620 500 2.16 2720 2 1 2 7000 3.15% 11.4% 16% 17% 2 1 3 22
1 2 34 5 6 7 23
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 1 4 1 1 2 3 4 24
2 2 1 5 25
2.1 / / 2.1 2 1 6 1 26
CO 2 2 1 2 3 41 11.4% 2/3 4, 27
5, 3 1 2 3 28
4 2 2 2 2 1 1 17.6 3793 2.86% 2010 4 2567 1654 913 2009 1171 963.24 207.76 637 441 2 2010 1 9% 12% 2020 1370 2010 1400 1490 1570 20 21 2006 0.86 0.743 0.7 29
2010 2020 0.84 0.81 0.686 0.65 0.657 0.62 2.2 11 12 3 4 11 12 87% 90% 5 6 5 6 7 11 12 30
2.3 2010 2007 2 1620 730 890 23 2010 40 2009 180 240 2010 3119 1118 36 2001 64 3 3 3 31
360 400 1000 800 200 2010 1291 1000 15% 2634 2 2 2 2007 12 30 [5] 1 2007 12 1 12 31 2 1 2 3 4 9 1 32
10 31 50% 3 2007 12 4 33
5 6 20 20 2 2 3 2011 341 CO 2 1048.38 SO 2 20.85 95.4% SO 2 373 2009 5.7% 2008 5.9% 0.2 322 / 2008 5 / 347 / 2008 6 / 34
2009 2008 2.1 2.1 2008-2009 2009 2008 % t t 322 327-1.53 347 353-1.70 % 5.60 5.80-3.45 2007 12 2010 12 309 CO 2 950 SO 2 18.89 95.4% SO 2 360 2010 GDP 4.39% 1 17 35
2 2008 5 1 2 2007 7 SO 2 3 2008 4 17 58 2010 5 36
4 2 2 4 1 2 2009 4 3 2010 2 3 2 3 1 37
2010 4 30 68 211 5733.5 5144.1 120 589.4 3424.2 745.6 192 394.8 87.5 300 300.9 222.4 66.2 2009 6360.8 2070.9 180.2 2 3 2 2008 11 17 2008 [7] 2008 1 2 3 45 6 7 8 3 38
2009 10 12 SO 2 2009 108 EMS 5 EMS 39
2 3 3 2009 2010 2009 90.1 1.1% CO 2 198.22 SO 2 1.43 94.26% 2010 1 4 13 CO 2 28.6 SO 2 0.21 93.74% 12 29 2 3 4 1 2 3 40
4 5 2.4 2 4 1 1 2009 135013MW 53327MW 13188 MW 19893MW 18128 MW 41
3427MW 37.7% 32.4% 2.9% 2.0% 0.4% 62.3% 53.0% 9.3% 32.4% 50% 53.0% 2 500kV 400kV 220kV 13 2300 2009 500kV 77 500kV 145 500kV 118000MVA 500kV 269 220kV 540 1147 188622MVA 220kV 1479 2009 95902MW 5859.2 kwh 60.1% 11.9% 12.5% 12.6% 2% 2009 20700MW 1043.87 kwh 3 42
2 4 2 2010 7 21 126.6 62 124 40 80 11 22 761.4 43
88.7% SO 2 2010 7 2 2010 2010 332 / 14 / 11.97 18.26 1.1 2.57 2.77 1.9 6.4 3.55 1.6 2.2 2.2 100 40 100 5 5 100 44
100 100 100 2010 12 27 2010 12 45
1 2 1 2 3 46
4 5 47
6 2011 3 2 4 3 2008 2009 2010 11 87.79 kwh 33.98 kwh 44.68 kwh 280.1 107 138.5 2008 2009 2010 11 48
633 2008 2009 2010 11 CO 2 1393 SO 2 12 94 SO 2 478.6 2 5 2 5 1 2009 12 31 5128.675 60 29 2009 39.17% 30 60 63 2124.4 41.42% 30 128 995.275 19.41% 500 96 7614 220 2 5 2 2008 1 9 0 [8] 1 1 2 49
3 4 5 6 78 9 20 11 20 12 00 2 50
3 30 [2007]2 51
4 2011 2 1 2 20 3 30 30 4 30 40% 52
2 5 3 2010 2010 302 120 2010 42.8 61.9% 2010 60 6358 30-35 5868 12.5-22 2954 2 5 4 1 2 3 53
2 6 2 6 1 2008 2683 1546 1137 1 6 2 3 4 2 6 2 2008 12 3 1[9] 2 54
3 2 2009 2008 10 2 2008 2008 2008 183 1 2007 10 5.12 2007 7%5.12 1 2008 183 55
2 2008 183 3 [2008]183 2 6 3 2008 2007 11.6 81.3 SO 2 1.56 2008 33.31 1.118 7 2009 5 600 2255 864 300 1286 91 200 580 338 200 1458 495 4.5 2 6 4 1 2 56
500 220 3 4 5 6 57
7 2009 2 7 2 7 1 500 500 220 1000 2009 12 4679.8 365.28 7.8% 4293.79 91.76% 20.73 0.44% 4.88 15.6 2009 1 8 348 2010 1200 542010 2042 58
2030.5 2010 4521 2011 3960 3830 2011 119.8 2011 6160.6 2011 31.0 40.7 2011 2011 4270 2010 251 2 7 2 1 [10] 1 2 3 59
4 5 2 12 5500 450 0.1 / 450 0.1 / 5500 0.1 / 3 2009 2009 60
30 60 3700 30 3400 20 3000 30 3500 20 3400 50 2500 60 20 2 7 3 61
2009 6 27 62
3 3 1 2007 1438 60% 1 3.1 3.1 / () 63
2 600 300 600 200 300 100 200 / / 2009 1 23 4 567 8 9 3-2 3.1 3.2 64
g/kwh 360.0 350.0 60% 340.0 330.0 320.0 310.0 300.0 290.0 280.0 270.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3.1 [1] [2] [3] 2009 www.sc.gov.cn 3 3.3 3.3 65
AGC AGC 4 3.4 3.4 1 66
9 2 50% 3 67
80 SO 2 400 / 1200 / 70 4 5 3.5 3.5 MIS UC/EDC 2010 5 68
3.6 3.6 2008 4 2010 4 56-44 5 % 79-2007 7 2008 10 112 37 112 37 % 100 100 100% 112 12 135 125 44 40 71% 6 69
10 20 30 60 100 100 100 7 2007 3.7 3.7 1 2007 6 2007 124 33 91 2007 2010 6 70
8 2007 8 2010 6 1 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.3 2 2010 6 1 0.017 2009 5 7 3 2010 6 1 2005 0.25 2009 5 22 4 2010 6 1 8 3.8 71
3.8 20 20 50% 60 2008 162.6 325 / 25 / 81 SO 2 1.62 7 2009 7 23.10 2008 3 77 77 900 300 SO 2 12 210 2006 2008 9 210 350.4 100 SO 2 5 9 2005 2007 240 2 5 72
900 1000 2007 220 2008 385 2009 301 ( ) 2008 3 2 [11] 1, 2 11.28 8.56 0.44 / 0.58 / 0.455 / 0.90 / 73
1.71 1.5 / 289 1202.7 3.79 1218.5 786 624.5 4.36 3 4 5 6 74
7 3 3 1 1 2 2005 3 4 75
2 1 2 3 76
3.2 / DMIS EMS 3.2 4 5 77
78
4 4 1 4.1.1 1 3 2 79
3 80
4 1 K 4-3 2 K K 4-4 K 0.95 4.1.2 81
1 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 2 0.2% 0.4% 3 0 1 4 2 82
0.02 0.03 / 1 2 3 83
4 5 6 7 8 9 4 3 1 84
2 300 300 600 200 85
3 4 5, 86
6 7 87
5 1 2 3 4 5 88
[1] 2008 2009 http://www. serc.gov.cn [2] 2010 http://www.sgcc.com.cn [3] 2009 [4] 2007,2009 [5],2007 [6],2009 [7],2007 [8],2007 [9],2007 [10],2007 [11],,..,36(6):54 56. 2008. [12],,..,20(6):52 56. 2008. 89