2009 8 5 ( ) * (%) A50 5 11 100 1 12 91 180 1 13 108 1 15 108 1 14 45 (2) 11 55 BOCI (%) (000677.SZ) 27 62 252 (601991.SS) 25 35 80 (600299.SS) 20 43 125 (002097.SZ) 18 27 90 (600559.SS) 17 102 211 (%) (600383.SS) (15) (7) 241 (000069.SZ) (11) (14) 162 (600268.SS) (11) 6 50 (000402.SZ) (11) (4) 88 (600555.SS) (11) (11) 213 ()...2 (3993.HK/ 7.66; 11.47 ) 8 18...7 (2888.HK/ 182.20; 170.40), CFA 09 19.3 4.8% 16 170.40 (%) (0023.HK) 25.65 (1) (0293.HK) 12.71 1 (2600.HK) 10.09 1 (0001.HK) 97.73 0 (2628.HK) 34.77 1 (0941.HK) 81.61 1 (1055.HK) 3.01 1 (0728.HK) 4.15 1 (0762.HK) 11.45 2 (0002.HK) 52.78 0 (0883.HK) 10.88 1 (0525.HK) 3.88 1 (0012.HK) 52.47 (1) (0003.HK) 16.82 (0) (0006.HK) 42.01 (1) (0005.HK) 84.44 2 (0902.HK) 6.48 1 (0013.HK) 56.96 1 (0179.HK) 2.36 1 (0992.HK) 3.91 (1) (0008.HK) 2.19 2 (0857.HK) 9.31 1 (0016.HK) 119.74 0 (0386.HK) 7.15 1 (0981.HK) 0.44 4 (0019.HK) 87.27 0 (0669.HK) 6.59 (1) (0168.HK) 26.20 (1) (1171.HK) 12.83 1 (BOCR <go>) Firstcall.com Multex.com www.bociresearch.com
2009 8 5 ( ) 3993.HK 7.66 H : 11.47 ( 2.36) +8621 6860 4866 (8559) yukun.le@bocigroup.com 8 18 2.36 11.47 09 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 04/08/08 04/09/08 04/10/08 04/11/08 04/12/08 04/01/09 04/02/09 04/03/09 04/04/09 04/05/09 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 04/06/09 04/07/09 1 3 12 (%) 118 36 81 24 (%) 70 25 54 28 () 4,876 (%) 23 ( ) 8,479 3 ( ) 125 (%) (%) 38 04/08/09 4.5 2010 ( ) 11.47 1. 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E ( ) 5,898 5,563 3,522 4,587 7,463 (%) 54 (6) (37) 30 63 ( ) 2,241 1,641 692 1,251 1,883 ( ) 0.524 0.337 0.142 0.257 0.386 (%) 24.1 (35.7) (57.8) 80.7 50.5 ( ) - - 0.121 0.173 0.192 ( ) - - 0.142 0.18 0.24 (%) - - 0.0 41.6 61.0 ( ) 0.524 0.337 0.142 0.257 0.386 (%) 24.1 (35.7) (57.8) 80.7 50.5 ( ) 12.9 20.1 47.6 26.3 17.5 ( ) 12.9 20.1 47.6 26.3 17.5 ( ) 0.23 (0.22) 0.34 0.29 0.51 / ( ) 28.9 (31.1) 20.1 23.3 13.1 (%) 7.4 11.4 23.2 15.0 10.3 ( ) 0.266 0.158 0.047 0.086 0.129 (%) 3.9 2.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 BOCR <GO> firstcall.com, Multex.com ( www.bociresearch.com.) (BUY)() 6 10%(SELL)() 6 10% (NR) (HOLD) () 6 10%
12.42 78% 2.7 7 31 6.5% 40.3% 15.50 / 11 4 7 31 7.3% 21.5% 2,200 / () 2. 14% 6% 32% 6% 6% 5% 31% 3. 40 ( / ) 5,000 35 30 4,000 25 20 3,000 15 10 2,000 5 06-06 10-06 03-07 08-07 12-07 05-08 09-08 02-09 07-09 1,000 2009 8 5 3
09 23% 81,967 25% 38% 26.7% 4. 09 ( ) (%) 19,958 (38) 13,608 (25) 9,979 (27) 23,000 0 15,422 (23) 81,967 (23) 50% 3 70% 4 40% 53% 1 35-40% 70-80% 10% 5. 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E / 4.88 4.86 5.37 5.5 5.62 5.82 2,204.6 2,204.6 2,204.6 2,204.6 2,204.6 2,204.6 / 7.9723 7.6069 6.9494 6.83 6.83 6.83 / (100% ) 85,770 81,503 82,272 82,816 84,623 87,634 / (51% ) 43,742 41,567 41,959 42,236 43,158 44,693 2 2009 10 70% 30,205 (08 34,400 ) 23,000 (08 24,987 ) 13,200 (08 14,750 ) 2009 8 5 4
33 09 10 0.77 4.5 2010 () 2.36 11.47 9 H 39 10 6. 25 20 15 10 5 9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 0 04-07 09-07 01-08 05-08 10-08 02-09 07-09 7. 25 20 15 10 5 0 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 04-07 07-07 10-07 01-08 04-08 07-08 10-08 01-09 04-09 07-09 2009 8 5 5
( ) 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 5,898 5,563 3,522 4,587 7,463 (2,278) (2,844) (2,449) (2,634) (4,516) 105 5 223 73 (84) 3,725 2,725 1,295 2,026 2,863 (157) (232) (269) (280) (300) 3,567 2,493 1,026 1,747 2,563 /() (20) (3) (12) (12) (12) /() 13 15 15 15 15 3,560 2,505 1,028 1,750 2,565 (1,053) (656) (231) (394) (577) (266) (208) (105) (105) (105) 2,241 1,641 692 1,251 1,883 2,241 1,641 692 1,251 1,883 () 0.524 0.337 0.142 0.257 0.386 () 0.524 0.337 0.142 0.257 0.386 () 0.266 0.158 0.047 0.086 0.129 (%) 54 (6) (37) 30 63 (%) 43 (30) (59) 70 47 (%) 45 (27) (52) 56 41 (%) 24 (36) (58) 81 51 (%) 24 (36) (58) 81 51 ( ) 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 5,683 2,548 3,513 3,219 3,988 1,381 654 414 539 877 355 650 560 602 1,033 677 3,677 3,679 3,699 3,716 8,096 7,529 8,166 8,060 9,614 3,018 4,068 4,687 5,451 5,993 671 759 748 738 729 83 380 179 179 179 3,772 5,207 5,615 6,368 6,901 11,867 12,736 13,780 14,428 16,515 583 681 587 631 1,082 125 228 228 228 228 382 120 887 648 1,021 1,090 1,029 1,702 1,507 2,331 25 0 0 0 0 46 62 18 18 18 975 975 975 975 975 9,394 10,262 10,723 11,557 12,813 10,369 11,237 11,698 12,532 13,788 338 408 362 370 378 11,867 12,736 13,780 14,428 16,515 () 2.13 2.30 2.40 2.57 2.83 () 1.99 2.15 2.25 2.42 2.68 () (1.13) (0.48) (0.67) (0.61) (0.77) ( ) 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3,560 2,505 1,028 1,750 2,565 157 232 269 280 300 20 3 12 12 12 (1,726) (2,730) 1,001 (382) 39 (999) (1,053) (656) (231) (394) (13) (15) (15) (15) (15) 999 (1,058) 1,640 1,414 2,508 (1,528) (1,313) (1,000) (800) (800) / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1,528) (1,313) (1,000) (800) (800) 7,568 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1,730) (1,299) (770) (231) (417) (459) 534 1,096 (676) (522) 5,378 (765) 325 (907) (939) 4,849 (3,136) 965 (293) 769 834 5,683 2,548 3,513 3,219 (158) (2,243) 640 614 1,708 (198) (2,244) 630 601 1,696 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E (%) 63.2 49.0 36.8 44.2 38.4 60.5 44.8 29.1 38.1 34.3 60.4 45.0 29.2 38.1 34.4 ( 38.0 29.5 19.7 27.3 25.2 ( ) 7.4 7.3 4.8 5.3 4.1 ( ) 179.5 848.3 84.4 143.7 210.8 (%) ( ) 7.1 6.7 4.5 4.9 3.7 ( ) 12.9 20.1 47.6 26.3 17.5 12.9 20.1 47.6 26.3 17.5 19.3 30.0 71.2 39.4 26.2 ( ) 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 / 28.9 (31.1) 20.1 23.3 13.1 / 7.4 11.4 23.2 15.0 10.3 46.1 64.5 90.2 80.6 66.1 63.8 66.7 55.3 37.9 34.6 42.8 41.5 65.7 48.4 41.9 (%) 58.0 47.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 36.6 15.2 6.0 10.3 14.3 30.6 15.0 6.0 9.6 12.8 50.8 21.9 8.5 13.7 18.6 2009 8 5 6
2009 8 5 HK ( ) 2888.HK 182.20 : 170.40, CFA * (8610) 6622 9070 lin.yuan@bocigroup.com 09 19.3 4.8% 16 9.7% 170.40 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 04/08/08 04/09/08 04/10/08 04/11/08 04/12/08 04/01/09 04/02/09 04/03/09 04/04/09 04/05/09 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 04/06/09 04/07/09 1 3 12 (%) 98 25 43 (7) (%) 53 11 17 0 () 1,896 (%) 81 ( ) 280,201 3 ( ) 138 (%) 19 04/08/09 170.40 12.9 09 1.7 3.3% 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E ( ) 2,813 3,298 3,254 3,283 3,666 () 1.995 1.739 1.716 1.731 1.933 (%) 22.3 (12.8) (1.3) 0.9 11.7 () - - 1.22 1.05 1.14 (%) - - 40.7 64.9 69.6 ( ) 11.8 13.5 13.7 13.6 12.2 ( ) 14.8 11.7 12.7 13.7 14.8 ( ) 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 (%) 13.5 14.9 13.6 12.7 13.1 () 0.851 0.742 0.732 0.739 0.825 (%) 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.5 BOCR <GO> firstcall.com, Multex.com ( www.bociresearch.com.) (BUY)() 6 10%(SELL)() 6 10% (NR) (HOLD) () 6 10%
27% 134% 9.7% 56.6% 60% 50.2 37% 36%( ) (MESA) 61% 43% 16 ( 10 ) ( 90%) 10% 4% 2009 8 5 8
09 7.6% 10.5% 16 80-90 90% 10% 21.23 / 2009 8 5 9
( ) 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 6,265 7,387 6,841 6,115 6,073 4,802 6,581 6,105 6,633 7,231 11,067 13,968 12,947 12,748 13,304 (6,215) (7,611) (6,850) (6,731) (6,627) 4,852 6,357 6,097 6,017 6,677 (761) (1,321) (1,348) (1,208) (1,321) 4,091 5,036 4,749 4,809 5,356 (57) (236) 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4,035 4,801 4,749 4,809 5,356 (1,046) (1,290) (1,276) (1,292) (1,439) 2,989 3,511 3,473 3,517 3,917 (148) (103) (113) (125) (137) 2,813 3,298 3,254 3,283 3,666 % 25 17 (1) 1 12 ( ) 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 4,035 4,801 4,749 4,809 5,356 1,341 1,746 1,782 1,658 1,790 7,251 (6,862) (9,869) (10,881) (11,996) 12,448 (80) (3,339) (4,413) (4,850) (961) 24,164 (2,395) (887) 1,906 11,487 24,084 (5,734) (5,300) (2,944) (1,284) (1,752) (1,494) (1,510) (1,678) (1,046) (1,290) (1,276) (1,292) (1,439) 9,157 21,042 (8,503) (8,103) (6,061) (12,599) (2,615) 5,173 9,355 7,359 (3,442) 18,427 (3,330) 1,252 1,298 (89) (149) 3 16 34 (3,531) 18,278 (3,327) 1,268 1,332 6,008 (4,292) 4,535 0 0 /( ) 2,477 13,986 1,208 1,268 1,332 ( ) 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 10,175 24,161 25,369 26,638 27,969 37,679 47,969 1,855 (305) (5,176) 15,062 19,420 20,391 21,411 22,481 158,788 180,470 166,746 171,239 177,378 (1,806) (1,958) (2,361) (2,474) (2,627) 58,140 59,650 53,685 43,485 35,223 269 511 511 511 511 2,887 3,586 3,945 4,339 4,773 9,536 10,458 10,817 11,211 11,645 329,205 436,454 382,655 388,238 395,923 179,760 234,008 182,668 186,100 191,370 25,880 31,909 24,318 24,447 24,589 68,757 72,342 69,286 69,415 69,557 577,722 742,804 634,609 643,753 656,851 59,236 106,023 106,023 106,023 106,023 307,753 412,373 357,977 361,538 366,950 () 705 948 948 948 948 () 0 0 0 0 0 10,373 9,287 9,287 9,287 9,287 20,851 22,140 24,006 25,888 27,990 601 555 672 813 983 21,452 22,695 24,677 26,701 28,973 329,205 435,068 382,655 388,238 395,923 (%) 12 31 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 6.3 5.4 5.5 6.0 6.2 4.6 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 56.2 54.5 52.9 52.8 49.8 25.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 11.3 13.7 (7.6) 2.7 3.6 22.0 30.2 (21.9) 1.9 2.8 23.7 32.6 (12.3) 1.5 2.0 88.3 77.1 91.3 92.0 92.7 76.7 70.1 79.2 80.0 80.9 48.2 41.5 43.6 44.1 44.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.3 5.1 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.6 12.7 14.6 16.7 15.2 15.6 20.7 22.6 24.7 8.8 10.1 10.4 12.0 13.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 13.5 14.9 13.6 12.7 13.1 14.6 15.4 14.2 13.2 13.0 2009 8 5 10
/ (i) 1%(ii) (iii) (iv) 12 2009 8 3 2009 8 5 ( ) 11
(), () ( ) / ( )() ; ( ) (BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.) Financial Advisers Act (FAA) Financial Advisors Regulation (FAR) ( 110 ) Regulation 2 BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (1) FAR Regulation 34 FAA 27 ; (2) FAR Regulation 35 FAA 36 ( ) 2009 200 39 200121 : (8621) 6860 4866 : (8621) 5888 3554 :(852) 2867 6333 : 10 10800 8521065 21 10800 1521065 800 852 3392 :(852) 2147 9513 :(852) 2867 6333 :(852) 2147 9513 28 2 15 :100032 : (8610) 6622 9000 : (8610) 6657 8950 () 90 EC4N 6HA : (4420) 7022 8888 : (4420) 7022 8877 () 1270 202 NY 10020 : (1) 212 259 0888 : (1) 212 259 0889 ( ) 199303046Z (049908) : (65) 6412 8856 / 6412 8630 : (65) 6534 3996 / 6532 3371