27 5 Vol. 27, No. 5 2005 9 (551560) ACTA SEISMOLO GICA SIN ICA Sep., 2005 : 025323782 (2005) 0520551210 3 1) 1) 2) 1) 100875 ; 2) 100875 ; 1990 2000 20, 4 ( 2) ;, 2002,,.,, 30 %. 886 2002 398., 4. 1, GDP 2 232. 32 0. 18 %.,,. : P315. 9 : A, (, 1991, 2002).,,,.,,., 70 %, (, 1995 ;,, 2003)..,. 5,. 1900 2000, 5. 0 MS < 7. 0 72. 8 / 10 5 m 2 ; MS 7. 0 2. 86 / 10 5 m 2,.,, 1833 8 ; 20, 1970 1 5 7. 8, 1976 5 29 7. 3, 7. 4, 1988 11 6 7. 4, 7. 2 3 (40301003),. 2004209213, 2005206208.
552 27. 5 7 3, (, 2002).,,. 2002, 16 (), 9, 10, 109.,, 9, 2 (), 7, 30 %(, 2003).,, 15 581 961, 1 557,. 1, (, 2003). ( scenario eart hquake lo ss model) (, 1999 ;,, 2003 ;, 1997 ;, 2000),,.,.,,.,., Risk Management Solutions,, 1923 9 1 8. 3, 10 000.,,. t E t Et = P ( Ii B k) B k Ii d f j P (d f j Ii, B k) (d f j B k) V B k (1), Et, B k, Ii, d f j, V B k B k, P( Ii B k) t B k I i, P(d f j Ii, B k) B k Ii d f j.,, Et = B k k i D k, (2) d f j P (d f j I, B k) (d f j B k) V B k (2) D k = d f j P (d f j I, B k) (d f j B k) (3) Risk Management Solutions. 1995. What If t he 1923 Eart hquake Strikes Again? A Five Prefecture Tokyo Re2 gion Scenario, 84.
5 : 553 Et = B k ( Dk V B k ) (4) n ( ), E = [ n B k ( D k) n (V B k ) n ] (5), (V B k ) n n ; ( D k) n n k, ( Dk) n : ;. (5),,. 1 1.,,,,..,,. 4 : 1) (portfolio). (exposure),,,. 2) (vulnerabilty).,., 2. 3) (scenario eart hquake record).,,,. 4) (losses and yearly exceedence f requency). (5),,,.
554 27 2 2. 1 (23 1911 ) ( MS 4. 0) (1912 1990, MS 4. 7) (, 1995 ;, 1999),,,, ().,,,,,.,, (, 2002),, MS 5 398, 886 2002. 1990,, ( ),. (1990 1995 ) (1996 2000) 10 (, 1996 ;, 2001),, 1990 2002 20. 1 557 2002,. : () () () ( ) () ().. 2. 2, 87 % (, 2002).,. (1990 1995 ) (1996 2000 ),,.,., 4 :. 1990 2000 1, 100200,,. 1996. 2003. 2002, 246.. 2002..
5 : 555,, 600 / m 2 1 200 / m 2., 1996 2000, 300 450 750 1 000. 1 : / m 2 1990 1995 300100 480250 550450 750600 1996 2000 380200 520350 750450 1 200850 300 450 750 1 000 1985, 20,.,.,,.,,, 2,., 15, 1991 2001 ( x) ( Pg ) 159 ( 1997 2001 ), 2., R 2 0. 752 5. 100 %, (7) Pg, max = 100. 2 ( x) ( Pg) Pg = 0. 011 3 x + 1. 338 7 (7), 30 % 70 %, 15 % 85 %. 4 P1 = 0. 3 Pg (8) P2 = 0. 7 Pg (9) P3 = 0. 15 (1 - Pg) (10) P4 = 0. 85 (1 - Pg) (11) 1 557 ( x) (7) Pg, (8) (11) 1 4, 1 557 4. 2. 3 20 4, 4, 4 D, 3. 1990, 1996 6. 9,
556 27. (1995),,. 3,,,, 35 %.,, 55 %,,,. 3 4 (a) ; (b) ; (c) ; (d).,.,,, (, 1997).,,,.,,, ;,,,., ;,,,.,,,,,. 2. 4,,., 1990 (, 1991) (12) ; (2000), [(1321), (1322) ].
5 : 557 I = 4. 524 + 1. 443 M - 1. 844 ln ( d + 16) 2 = 0. 610 (12), M, I d km. Ia = 5. 253 + 1. 398 M - 4. 164 lg ( d + 26) = 0. 632 (1321) Ib = 2. 019 + 1. 398 M - 2. 943 lg ( d + 8) = 0. 632 (1322), (12),. 2, (13). 25, 21 (12). (12) 105 E, 105 E, 105 E,., (12). 2. 5,,, 398, (5) 1 557., 1993 2002 5 (2). 2, 79 12, 2 1993 2002 MS 5 22 N / ( ) E / ( ) / km 3 / / 3 1 1993201227 101. 08 22. 93 6. 2 14 21347 (37391) 5 521 286. 7 %(577. 3 %) 2 1993202201 101. 35 25. 87 5. 3 10 3517 (6051) 703 400. 3 %(760. 7 %) 3 1993207217 99. 70 27. 78 5. 6 10 8247 (9906) 1 554 430. 7 %(537. 5 %) 4 1993208214 101. 25 25. 45 5. 3 8 9327 (15088) 1 270 634. 4 %(1088 %) 5 1995204225 102. 73 22. 77 5. 6 20 4123 (12636) 547 653. 7 %(2210. 1 %) 6 1995210224 102. 32 25. 83 6. 5 15 86199 (186558) 45 116 91. 1 %(313. 5 %) 7 1996202203 100. 22 27. 30 6. 9 10 68702 (116365) 196 081-64. 9 %( - 40. 7 %) 8 1996207202 100. 10 26. 92 5. 2 10 5455 (7241) 1 882 189. 9 %(284. 8 %) 9 1996209225 100. 40 27. 32 5. 7 23 1770 (6240) 1 400 26. 4 %(345. 7 %) 10 2 1997201225 101. 10 21. 90 5. 1 10 718 (1535) 670 7. 2 %(129. 1 %) 11 2 1997201230 101. 40 22. 40 5. 5 9 852 (1414) 2 100-59. 4 %( - 32. 7 %) 12 1997210223 100. 30 26. 80 5. 3 10 8137 (11126) 1 660 390. 2 %(570. 2 %) 13 1998211219 100. 90 27. 30 6. 2 10 9561 (19927) 25 255-62. 1 %( - 21. 1 %) 14 1999211225 102. 80 24. 50 5. 1 10 4545 (11121) 5 320-14. 6 %(109 %) 15 2000201215 101. 12 25. 58 6. 5 30 94722 (167861) 81 204 16. 7 %(106. 7 %) 16 2 2000201227 103. 63 24. 15 5. 5 10 7938 (18339) 8 010-0. 9 %(129 %) 17 2000210206 97. 60 24. 30 5. 8 18 6286 (10592) 5 532 13. 6 %(91. 5 %) 18 2001203212 99. 82 22. 30 5. 0 10 1445 (3655) 3 431-57. 9 %(6. 5 %) 20 2001204212 99. 02 24. 83 5. 9 6 45826 (70595) 33 660 36. 1 %(109. 7 %) 21 2001206208 99. 00 24. 83 5. 3 5 10928 (17789) 2 440 347. 9 %(629. 1 %) 22 2001207210 101. 38 24. 93 5. 3 13 1332 (3336) 1 287 3. 5 %(159. 2 %) 23 2001207215 102. 63 24. 40 5. 1 8 4357 (8556) 3 016 44. 5 %(183. 7 %) 24 2001209204 100. 55 23. 63 5. 0 8 1705 (3693) 2 507-32 %(47. 3 %) 25 2001210227 100. 57 26. 23 6. 0 15 22606 (48322) 27 367-17. 4 %(76. 6 %) : = ( - ) /,. 3 (13).
558 27 13, 21, 1996 60 %. 1996 2 6. 9, 6. 9,,. 2 13 5. 3 5. 2,. 21 20, 20,,. 1993 1995 ( 15),. 1, 1996 4, 100.,. 1996.,,.,, 60 %..,,,,. 398, 372. 368 1400 2002, 4 1400, 90, 4. 600, 1/ 6000. 167 %, 2/ 6000. 333 %., (4). 4 4, 500 a 240, 100 a 57. 6. 361, 3. 28. (,, 1996), 80 %. 4. 1, 2002 GDP 2 232. 32 0. 18 %.,,,.. 7,.,. 7. 7, 2002, 207, 2002 GDP 9. 27 % ; 1970, 7. 7 3 (, 1996), GDP 38. 52 7. 79 %. 1970 2002,,
5 : 559. 32 a,.,?, 1970 2002,,,.,,.,,.,.,,,. 3 1990 2002 20, 4 ;, 2002,,.,, 30 %. 398., 4. 1, 2002 GDP 2 232. 32 0. 18 %.,,.,,,., 80 %..,,,,.,,,.,.. 2000. [J ]., (10) : 11,,. 1997. [J ]., 19 (6) : 640649,,,. 1999. [J ]., 15 (2) : 97105,. 2003. [J ]., (1) : 26. 1995. [J ]., 4 (1) : 4750. 1996. (1990) [ M]. :, 137144,. 1996. (1990 1995) [ M]. :, 210. 1995. (23 1911 ) [ M ]. :, 490494. 2002. (2002) [ M]. :, 413
560 27,,,. 2002. 20 [ M ]. :, 1719. 1996. [ M ]. :, 210. 2002. [J ]., 11 (3) : 19. 1991. [J ]. (),, 1720,,,. 2000. [J ]., 16 (2) : 99103. 2003. [J ]., (2) : 16,. 2003. [J ]., (11) : 510,,,. 1997.. 1995. [ M]. :, 5866. 2003. 2003 [ M]. :, 415 [ M]. :, 8184. 2001. (1996 2000) [ M]. :, 390. 1999. ( 1912 1990, M S 4. 7) [ M ]. :, 511523 THE HOUSING LOSS ASSESSMENT OF RURAL VILLAGES CAUSED BY EARTHQUA KE DISASTER IN Y UNNAN PROVINCE Wang Ying 1) Shi Peijun 1) Wang Jingai 2) 1) Key L aboratory of Environmental Change and N atural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China ; College of Resources Science and Technology, Bei j ing N ormal Universit y, B ei j ing 100875, China 2) College of Geog rap hy and Remote S ensing S ciences ; Key L aboratory of Regional Geography of Beijing N ormal Universit y, Bei jing 100875, China Abstract : Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more t han 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990 2004, t he vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural resident s in Yunnan province are set up. The scenario eart hquake disaster lo ss simulation model are used to simulate the housing loss if t he historical eart h2 quakes t hat occurred in since AD in 886 Yunnan Province reoccurs in 2002. The analysis of deviation shows t he simulation deviation of t he usual eart hquakes is less t han 30 % and t he met hod is high practicality. Meanwhile, t he simulation result of 398 historical eart hquakes in Yunnan Province shows t hat t he annual economic loss caused by eart hquake is about RMB 0. 41 billion Yuan t hat is t he 0. 18 % of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Be2 cause t he average living area of everybody and t he p rice of t he housing increase year by year, if t he historical destructive eart hquake reoccurs in today, t he loss of Yunnan Prov2 ince will be greater t han in t ho se year s. The government of Yunnan Province must pay more attention to t he improving capability for disaster prevention and reduction in rural ar2 eas. Key words : eart hquake disaster ; loss assessment ; scenario eart hquake ; rural village ; Yun2 nan Province
. 1996,.... 1999, ; 2004,.,,,... 1988,..,. 1996 ; 2004,..... 1969.. 1975 ;..,.... 2002, : ; 2005 : Vol. 25, No. 2 ; Vol. 20, No. 4 ; Vol. 25, No. 4 ; Vol. 21, No. 3 ; Vol., 20, No. 2 ; Vol. 22, No. 5.., 22 2.