% 30% - PDF Free Download

1993 70% 30%

1895 1920-1930 1930-1950 1960 OPEC 1973-1974 1976 1978

30-600 >44) (34-44) (23-34) (<23) (<0.5%) (0.5-1.5%) (>1.5%)

40, 400 1 2 3 4

<5 <150 <235 <350 <500 >350 >500

( ) ( CABINDA) (<150) (150-235) 10.95 10.71 17.26 60.67 (235-350) (>350)

( CABINDA) + LPG 7.51 27.81 10.71 345-565 >565 26.38 23.28

/ ( CABINDA) + LPG 9.86 33.55 10.71 33.04 1.74 4.91

- - - - - -

30 ~ 205 C 180~370 350~410 60~280 150~315 180 380

1.2 70% 8360 / 2003 7900 32% 60% 40% 3 3800

8360 / 8200 / 160 / 98%

2003 2004 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2002 2003 2004 79.1 76.1 78.3 80.7 80.4 78.0 80.1 82.3 77.0 78.6 80.2 OECD 49.4 47.2 48.0 49.3 49.3 47.4 48.6 49.8 47.7 48.5 48.8 29.8 28.9 30.3 31.5 31.1 30.7 31.5 32.5 29.2 30.1 31.4 78.9 78.1 78.9 80.7 81.4 80.5 80.4 81.9 76.4 79.2 81.1 OPEC 48.8 48.2 48.7 49.8 50.1 50.1 50.1 50.9 48.0 48.9 50.3 OPEC 30.1 29.9 30.2 30.9 31.3 30.4 30.3 31.0 28.4 30.3 30.8 OPEC 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.7 28.0 27.1 27.0 27.7 25.4 27.2 27.5 (OPEC10 ) 25.0 26.5 26.0 25.9 26.0 24.8 24.5 25.0 23.4 25.9 25.1 ( ) 2.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.0 1.3 2.4 OPEC NGLs 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.3-0.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.3-0.4-0.6 0.6 0.9 1 NGLs 2 IEA ARGUS 3 /

2004 / 2003 2004 2463 2513 50 1598 1616 18 863 850-13 549 619 70 784 824 40 355 351-4 520 546 26 260 264 4 467 473 6 7858 8055 197 / IEA

2001-2004

5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 / oil prodution oil consumption 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

CFD

+/- Dated Brent WTI Dubai Oman Tapis Minas

*BRENT 65% # BRENT - DTD BRENT 10-21 # BFO( 15-DAY BRENT 1981 3-4 # CFD DTD VS BFO #EFP IPE BRENT VS BFO # B-WAVE

* WTI * DUBAI OMAN * TAPIS * MINAS

PLATTS ARGUS

95 CABINDA +/- 5% 2004 5 27-28 MALONGO FOB MALONGO DTD BRENT 1 / SONANGOL OMAN+DUBAI +/- IPE BRENT B-WAVE - WTI

20 80

BRENT BRENT 1000 0.01 / / 2150 / 1200 / 36 12 12

WTI /1000 1 / 0.42%, API 34-42 30, 36,48,60,72,84 20,000, 3 1000

/100 OMAN+DUBAI /2 / 700 / 6 1200

/ / SPREAD ARBITRAGE,CRACK / CONTANGO BACKWARDATION

/ JAN (F) FEB (G) MAR (H) APR (J) MAY (K) JUN (M) JUL (N) AUG (Q) SEP (U) OCT (V) NOV (X) DEC (Z)

(

- -

23% 6% 34% 15% 22%

4 5 30 100 BONNY LT B/L 5 DTD BRENT+50 / 4 30 8 BRENT100 33 / 6 1-5 200

= -

SWAP 1000 6 BRENT SWAP @ 36 / 6 1-30 IPE BRENT 30 /,

CFD EFP ( CRACK OPTION SWAPTION

WTI 10 IPE BRENT 10 DATED BRENT 5 DUBAI 1.5 TAPIS 1.5

3 3 5 1-2 :

OPEC

22-28 2001 1 22 / 22-28 28 /

OPEC 2 1 2 4 120 78.2 36.8 115 116 75 110 127-29 98 98 121.8 400 359.7 25.3 385 388 345 230 196.6 20.4 217 220 188.6 150 131.2 12.8 144 145 125.8 250 201.8 32.2 234 235 193.6 85 63.5 12.5 76 76 60.9 950 796.3 53.7 850 855 763.8 245 213.8 11.2 225 225 205.1 235 281.9-25.9 256 256 270.4 OPEC 10 2775 2450 150 2600 2614 2350 280 N.A. N.A. 196 190 N.A. OPEC 3055 N.A. N.A. 2796 2804 N.A. ARGUS /

2004 OPEC / 2003 2004 2169 2182 13 1470 1493 23 633 628-5 66 61-5 2541 2666 125 1031 1104 73 18 17-1 341 340-1 250 260 10 393 408 15 199 191-8 309 346 37 181 183 2 OPEC 4891 5031 140 / IEA

2002~03 1990~91 1980 2002 1978~79 1973 1956~57

GDP % 1970-2004 3.3%

: 95 10 : %

400 350 300 250 200 6 6 6 2002 2003 2004

500 480 460 440 420 400 380 6 6 6 2002 2003 2004

2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 5 5 5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2200

14 12 10 8 6 4 5 5 5 2002 2003 2004

650 600 550 500 450 400 350 ( / ) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

16 ( / ) 4000 3000 2000 1000 5 5 5 2002 2003 0000

( / ) 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2800

( / ) 980 940 900 860 820 780 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 740

480 450 420 390 360 330 300 ( / ) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

1 2 3

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

WTI 2001 8 / 1 =1000-80000 -60000-40000 -20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 01-8-7 01-8-28 01-9-25 01-10-16 01-11-6 01-11-27 01-12-18 02-1-8 02-1-29 02-2-19 02-3-12 02-4-2 02-4-23 02-5-14 02-6-4 02-6-25 02-7-16 02-8-6 02-8-27 02-9-17 02-10-8 02-10-29 02-11-19 02-12-10 02-12-31 03-1-21 03-2-11 03-3-4 03-3-25 03-4-15 03-5-6 03-5-27 03-6-17 03-7-8 03-7-29 03-8-19 03-9-9 03-9-30 03-10-21 03-11-11 03-12-2 03-12-23 04-1-13 04-2-3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 WTI

WTI

WTI 9 LIBOR

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