1980 1980 WTO * 1
1998 SDPC SETC World Trade Organization WTO 1982 1988 1993 1998 2001 1 决 1990 -- (SETC) 2001~2005 2
1 1949 1950 1954 1958 1970 1975 1978 1979 1982 1988 1993 1998 2000 2002 10 ( ) 産 2000 産爲 10.90 1996 産 13.97 2000 産爲 9.98 産 1990 1.38 153 2000 1.63 270 1990 6,212 2000 13,500 1990 1,267 2000 2,400 2000 164 産 産 ( ) 1990 76.2% 爲 2000 61.03% 1990 23.8% 爲 2000 38.97% 産 産 3
1990 19.0% 2.0% 4.8% 爲 2000 20.94% 3.3% 9.64% 2002 (SETC) 1. 2. 3. 爲 4. 5. 6. IEA 2000 11% 1990 2% 28% 7% 9% 2 2 1971 1990 2000 23 22 21 13 24 28 2 4 7 3 5 9 5 9 11 IEA World Energy Outlook, 2002.9 4
2002 6 2050 (1) a. b. (2) (3) (4)2050 2050 30 37.5 1.2 2 16 22 2000~2050 2.2 2.6 1970 30,990 2000 109,000 3 1998 3 2000 67.2% 1970 29,291 1996 138,948 2000 128,000 4 2000 67% 23.6% 6.9% 2.5% 3 産 産 産 ( ) ( ) 1970 30,990 81.6 14.1 1.2 3.1 1980 63,735 69.4 23.8 3.0 3.8 1990 103,922 74.2 19.0 2.0 4.8 1991 101,490 74.1 19.2 2.0 4.7 1992 107,256 74.3 18.9 2.0 4.8 5
1993 111,059 74.0 18.7 2.0 5.3 1994 118,729 74.6 17.6 1.9 5.9 1995 123,519 75.3 16.6 1.9 6.2(0.4) 1996 127,404 75.2 17.0 2.0 5.8(0.4) 1997 126,380 74.1 17.3 2.1 6.5(0.4) 1998 118,124 71.9 18.5 2.5 7.1(0.5) 1999 103,542 68.4 21.0 3.1 7.5(0.5) 2000 109,000 67.2 21.4 3.4 8.0(0.6) ( ) 2002 7 4 ( ) ( ) 1970 29,291 80.9 14.7 0.9 3.5 1980 60,275 72.2 20.7 3.1 4.0 1990 98,703 76.2 16.6 2.1 5.1 1991 103,783 76.1 17.1 2.0 4.8 1992 109,170 75.7 17.5 1.9 4.9 1993 115,993 74.7 18.2 1.9 5.2 1994 122,737 75.0 17.4 1.9 5.7 1995 131,176 74.6 17.5 1.8 6.1 1996 138,948 74.7 18.0 1.8 5.5 1997 138,173 71.5 20.4 1.7 6.2 1998 132,214 69.6 21.5 2.2 6.7 1999 130,119 68.0 23.2 2.2 6.6 2000 128,000 67.0 23.6 2.5 6.9 3 ( ) 産 2/3 1996 13.97 1997 2000 9.98 1995 13.61 3.63 7,255 6
( ) 1989 1993 2000 8,832 5 30 5 1982 102.12 14.68 4.30 18.98 18.59 0.64 0.93 1.57 82.03 1.91% 1985 124.90 30.03 6.21 36.30 29.02 0.90 0.90 1.32 91.96 1.44% 1990 138.36 23.99 5.26 31.10 21.14 7.56 2.70 5.53 116.43 4.75% 1995 150.04 18.85 0.42 24.55 12.84 36.73 14.39 31.48 160.65 19.64% 2000 160.86 10.31 0.83 11.14 6.93 70.27 18.05 88.32 211.45 41.77% 2001 163.84 7.55 0.92 8.47 5.17% 60.26 21.45 81.71 237.08 34.47% 2001 ( ) 38 29.8 8.2 2000 29,041 20 2020 62,946 6 1996-2000 2000 262 41 19 7
15 2002 2003 3 産 2004 産 6 20 2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2020 6,871 3,300 2,500 3,250 15,916 7,504 2,500 1,500 2,250 10,089 5,150 3,400 3,600 5,100 17,366 1,472 1,500 1,000 1,700 5,872 2,592 3,000 2,050 4,100 13,703 29,041 13,700 10,650 16,400 62,946 2000 near & medium term supply sources ALNG Shenzhen receiving BP/Tangguh Fujian LNG receiving terminal Sakhalin 2005 CNOOC LNG ( ) 1995 12 28 1996 4 1 1986-1990 8
1991~1995 1,500 8% 2000 31,600 74.9 7 2000 0.252 1,063.8 1996-2000 1997 l 16 1998 3 7 1996~2000 ( ) % % % 1996 1,079.4 186.9 17.32 878.1 81.35 14.3 1.33 1997 1,134.2 194.6 17.15 925.2 81.57 14.4 1.27 1998 1,157.7 204.3 17.65 938.8 81.09 14.1 1.22 1999 1,233.1 212.9 17.27 1,004.7 81.48 14.8 1.20 2000 1,350.0 340.0 17.70 1,092.0 80.80 16.4 1.20 2002 7 9
5 2 爲 ( ) 1980 50~200 産 2000 2,600 産 産 (2011 2015 ) 産産 産 4,300 2% 8 10
8 1998-2015 1998 2005 2010 2015 ( m 2 ) 1,500 6,400 12,900 23,200 (MWp) 13 53 174 320 (MW) 223.6 3,000 4,900 7,000 (MW) 17* 35 63 105 ( m 2 ) 800 1,450 2,250 3,000 (MW) 25 45 87.5 110 ( m 3 ) 3.2 12.8 24.0 40.0 ( m 3 ) 0.59 1.2 2.9 4.5 / ( m 3 ) 0.7 6.1 12.9 20.3 2001 4 WTO 爲 WTO WTO 16 2002 WTO WTO 産 WTO WTO 11
WTO DRCCGE WTO WTO 2010 GDP 2.1% WTO GDP 0.5 0.6 1985 1999 2,963.21 1,833.16 61.9% 706.32 23.8% 7.2% 4.9% 2.2% 9 WTO 12
9 87.16 130.29 126.21 22.75-336.41 1985 (25.9) (38.7) (37.5) (2.1) (0) (100) 1990 164.46 231.13 372.23 78.92-846.74 (19.4) (27.3) (44.0) (9.3) (0) (100) 1995 282.26 499.68 1,042.71 161.64 38.99 2,025.28 (13.9) (24.7) (51.5) (8.0) (1.9) (100) 1996 319.44 565.46 1,293.06 186.05 55.25 2,419.26 (13.2) (23.4) (53.5) (7.7) (2.2) (100) 1997 363.96 697.39 1,534.97 257.89 59.79 2,914.00 (12.5) (23.9) (52.7) (8.9) (2.0) (100) 1998 262.78 726.30 1,601.15 199.82 72.04 2,862.10 (9.2) (25.4) (55.9) (7.0) (2.5) (100) 1999 213.22 706.32 1,833.16 145.76 64.75 2,963.21 (7.2) (23.8) (61.9) (4.9) (2.2) (100) 2001 7 1970 30,990 2000 109,000 3 1998 2000 67.2% 23.6% 2.5% 6.9% 2002 6 2050 30 37.5 1.2 2 16 22 13
WTO ( ) ( ) ( ) LNG 1. WTO 2002 2. 2002 2002 12 3 14
3. 2002 2002 12 3 4. 2002 5. 2002 2002 6. 2002 2 7. 2001 8. 2001 9. 2001 10. 1999 11. 1998 34 4 12. 1998 13. 1997 1 31-34 14. 1997 12 27 15. 1997 7 16. 1996 6 17. Fesharaki, F. et al.(1998), The Outlook for Energy Suply and Demand in Northeast Asia, internet:http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu. 18. Fesharaki, F.(1998), Oil Markets and Energy Security in Northeast Asia, internet:http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu. 19. Koyama, K. (1998), Oil Supply Security in Asian Economies: Growing Oil Imports and their Response Measrues, Energy in Japan, 149 (1):31-46. 20. IEA(2002),World Energy Outlook 2002. 15