DANIEL H. ROSEN
DANIEL H. ROSEN 2014 10
2014 The Asia Society. AsiaSociety.org/Policy-Institute Twitter @asiapolicy policyinstitute@asiasociety.org 725 10021 +1 212 288 6400 1526 20036 +1 202 833 2742
2013 11 (ASPI) 2014 ASPI (ASPI) Daniel H. Rosen Dan ASPI Debra Eisenman Anubhav Gupta Josh Rosenfield Susan Shirk Orville Schell
5 ASPI Henrietta H. Fore Ronnie C. Chan Jack Wadsworth ASPI Josette Sheeran Marshall M. Bouton
2013 11 35 2013 2020 2013
7 GDP GDP 2020 6% (TFP) 2020 GDP 3% GDP 1% 2020 1978 (WTO)
8 1 (FDI) 2013 11 2020 1978 2013 11
9 16 300 - - 2014 2014 6 2016 - -
10 IPO (PBOC) 2016 2014 PBOC (negative lists) (SOE)
11, 2014 8 (SASAC) 20 70% 3 2 2014 8 2014 2015 2016 2017
12 GDP 1982 2013 15 64 3.75 10 35 1950 2014 200 1978 GDP GDP
13 (IPR) IPR GDP IPR 2017 - FDI
14 2020-2016 2015-35 1978 GDP 2% GDP 15.4% 1978 1989 4% 1997 11% 28% GDP 2020 TFP GDP 6% 3% 1% 1
15 1 GDP GDP % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 2020 2 2020 1-3% 2020 GDP 2% 1370 2013 1450
16 2 2020 2013 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 2,425 2,190 3,544 3,680 3,475 3,138 3,197 2,582 1,500 1,000 500 235 337 615 0-500 2013-137 2 2013 5% GDP 2005-2008 FDI FDI 2020 1600 2020 1.1 3.5 2.4 3.5 20% NYSE
17 3 2020 2013 12,000 10,000 11,204 8,684 10,833 10,548 8,000 6,000 4,000 5,937 3,965 5,789 5,044 4,549 5,999 2,000 1,972 2,520 0 2013 3 2020 10.8 11.2 5.8 8.6 GDP FDI GDP 2020 5.9 35
18 1. 2013 11 2. (Middle Kingdom) 3.
19 4. 2020-2.35 5. GDP
20 35 1 1. 2. 53
21 OECD 3. 4. 5.
DANIEL H. ROSEN 2014 Jack Wadsworth Fellow Rosen 2000 2001 Rosen Rosen 1992 Rosen 2013 Jack Wadsworth Jack Wadsworth Jack Jack Jack Anna Snyder 21500 Cassie Gao Beibei Bao Thilo Hanemann Trevor Houser Zheng Zhu Marshall Bouton Marshall Josh Rosenfield Debra Eisenman Anubhav Gupta Josette Sheeran Tom Nagorski Christine Davies
23 Barry Naughton Susan Shirk Scott Rozelle Claire Reade Menzie Chinn Donald Clarke Zha Daojiong Erin Ennis David Fagan Gary Hufbauer Jamie Horsley Jacob Kirkegaard JeffSchott John Garnaut Keith Maskus Mark Cohen Mark Duval Evan Greenberg Matt Ferchen Nick Lardy James O Connell J. Michael Evans Markus Rodlauer Lestor Ross Susan Finder Wei Tan Xiaobo Lu Wu Jingchao Yao Yang Stephen Green Anna Annabelle Josephine 2001
AsiaSociety.org/ChinaEconomy High Tech: The Next Wave of Chinese Investment in America Sustaining Myanmar s Transition: Ten Critical Challenges Chinese Direct Investment in California Delivering Environmentally Sustainable Economic Growth: The Case of China Advancing Myanmar s Transition: A Way Forward for U.S. Policy Pakistan 2020: A Vision for Building a Better Future 2020 Current Realities and Future Possibilities in Burma/Myanmar: Options for U.S. Policy North Korea Inside Out: The Case for Economic Engagement 1956