601002 021-68419393-1029 Yinhua.han@gmail.com 2007 01 24 :7.500.50 06 82% 06 200% 8.8 2009 8 2.4 1.32 2009 2.64 0.79 2006 3 40 07 08 48 2010 60 2020 93126 060708 12.46%15.57%21.15% 2006Q2 3.62 24.08 68.17 73,847/21,000 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 118,573 128,569 163,625 245,640 % 8.43% 27.27% 50.12% 20,083 15,934 25,365 51,791 % -20.66% 59.19% 104.18% 13645 9117 12769 29168 % -33.18% 40.05% 128.42% % 16.94% 12.39% 15.50% 21.08% % 11.51% 7.09% 7.80% 11.87% 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 0.185 0.123 0.173 0.395 0.266 0.334 0.053 0.118 1.065 2.400 2.573 2.968 % 17.35% 5.14% 6.72% 13.31% % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % 45.85% 35.66% 32.21% 33.01% P/E 23.05 34.50 24.64 10.79 P/B 4.00 1.78 1.66 1.44
...- 3-1.1...- 3-1.2...- 3 -...- 4-2.1...- 4-2.2...- 5-2.3...- 7-2.4...- 8 -...- 9-3.1...- 9-3..2 2-3...- 11-3.3...- 13 -...- 14-4.1...- 14-4.2...- 14-1....- 3-2...- 4-3. 07...- 6-4.2005...- 7-5....- 10-6....- 10-7.2007...- 11-8....- 12-9...- 14-10...- 15-11...- 15 -...- 16-1....- 3-2....- 4-3....- 5-4....- 6-5...- 8-6....- 8-7....- 8-8....- 9-9....- 9-10....- 10-11....- 11-12....- 12-13....- 12-14....- 13 - :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 2 -
1995 11 17 2003 9 4 QS-90001998 ISO-90012000 A2LA TUV 43,717 82.72% 43,717 59.20% 8,400 15.90% 8,400 11.37% 330 0.62% 330 0.45% 200 0.38% 200 0.27% 100 0.19% 100 0.14% 100 0.19% 100 0.14% 21,000 28.44% 52,847 100% 73,847 100% 100% 59.2% :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 3 -
06H1 2,126 72.34% -240.34 500 75% 08 500 90% 125.59 1200 75% 07 5000 75% 08 94.4% 2004 135 2009 166 31.5%5 4.2% 2004 111 2009 140 26.5%5 4.7% 1999 90 2004 135 2009 192 36.4%5 7.3% :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 4 -
2001-2005 14.32% 23.07% 24.91%.2005 390 7%-8% 3%-4% 4-5 10% 20% 2010 600 300 7000 2005 947 / 9200 / 10 2.2.1 7000 12500 2006 3 11 200 995 485 115 350 250 19 40 07 08 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 5 -
48 145 350 192.5 2.8 904.89 350 192.5 14.42 278.23 350 192.5 5.36 1318 350 192.5 25.4 Pandrol vossloh 07-08 12 06 7.5 2.2.2 8,500 2.2.3 8% 1999 2 500 /50 /4000 88 /7100 2004 500 2004 34 2010 4860 2020 93126 2.2.4 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 6 -
23% TRW 2000 140 20 30 10.9 10.9 7000 2000 200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 2005 4.5% :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 7 -
1991 4.891.01 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 8 -
3.1.1 2002 3.1.2 2005 67.99% 3.1.3 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 9 -
65% 2003 2006 11% 8% 2003.12 2004.12 2005.12 2006.6 3004.3 3784.6 3342.4 3258.6 2753.48 3642.49 3418.53 3082.28 3.1.4 50% 2005 % 8188.53 8.07 66081.44 7.75 63461.11-2620.33-3.97% 867.70 8.07 7002.34 7.75 6724.68-277.67-3.97% 485.87 8.07 3920.97 7.75 3765.49-155.48-3.97% 2007 2007 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 10 -
5% 2007 % 10681.67 7.8 83317 7.41 79151.15-4165.85 5% 867.70 7.8 6768.06 7.41 6429.66-338.4 5% 8541 7.8 66619.8 7.41 63288.81-3330.99 5% 3.1.5 50 20 500 30 3..2 2-3 81,981 8.8 1.32 20 08 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 11 -
/ 7,282 85.26% 8.8 9500 1,259 14.74% 1.32 25000 3.2.1 8.8 9500 /2009 8 2.4 3.2.2 8.8-12.9 1.32 25000 /2009 2.64 0.79 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 12 -
3.3.1 10 3 20 20000 2005 8 1200 11 1200 3.3.2 ERP 3.3.3 06 7.5 7.14 4 350 / 3 400 250 / 1 70 350 / 7 Vossloh 350 / 3 350 3.3.4 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 13 -
10% 3.3.5, 10-15% 20 11 4.5 4.5 85% 20% 19.7% 2007 3000 2008 7 07 1000 3% 30 10-15 1100 1000 350 250 5% 2% 15% 118,573.34 128,569.66 163,625.72 245,640.64 8.43% 27.27% 50.12% 20,083.34 15,934.65 25,365.89 51,791.17 16.94% 12.39% 15.50% 21.08% 13645.16 9117.81 12769.47 29168.03-33.18% 40.05% 128.42% 0.185 0.123 0.173 0.395 WACC8% 9% 2% 5.82-7.45 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 14 -
7.87 8.50 9.24 10.15 11.29 6.52 6.95 7.45 8.03 8.74 5.51 5.82 6.17 6.57 7.04 4.73 4.95 5.21 5.50 5.83 4.10 4.28 4.47 4.69 4.93 3.60 3.73 3.88 4.05 4.23 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 15 -
2006 2007 2008 9117.81 12769.47 29168.03 10735.40 10922.05 11014.12 464.96 81.95 274.13 895.73 465.98 211.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 108.55 152.02 347.24 1430.63-20566.04-32399.79 24684.67 3902.16 8741.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 91648.45-8327.98-3211.12 116333.12-4425.82 5530.30 7065.21 123398.33 118972.50 123398.33 118972.50 124502.80 2005 2006 2007 2008 118573.34 128569.66 163625.72 245640.64 98490.00 112545.01 138145.29 193677.52 0.00 90.00 114.54 171.95 20083.34 15934.65 25365.89 51791.17 4050.78 4253.32 4465.98 4689.28 4597.86 6428.48 9817.54 14738.44 3068.83 2571.39 4908.77 7369.22 1435.89 895.73 465.98 211.12 15031.54 10292.36 14639.58 34161.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 565.01 565.01 565.01 565.01 7.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 126.02 2.84 2.84 2.84 15478.53 10854.53 15201.75 34723.85 2232.95 1628.18 2280.26 5208.58-399.58 108.55 152.02 347.24 13645.16 9117.81 12769.47 29168.03 C 2005 2006 2007 2008 7065.21 123398.33 118972.50 124502.80 16727.21 45334.01 53256.81 79950.98 605.12 697.45 887.61 1332.52 4860.89 4860.89 4860.89 4860.89 54238.84 47854.75 58740.13 82352.74 84692.81 224814.36 240088.00 298010.28 511.42 511.42 511.42 511.42 106088.94 108644.41 109872.04 110485.85 42147.55 52881.71 63802.53 74815.41 63941.38 55762.70 46069.51 35670.44 5010.73 2405.15 1227.63 613.81 68484.80 57299.09 46638.21 36229.04 786.31 785.07 783.83 782.59 16.79 11.59 9.51 8.65 803.10 796.65 793.34 791.24 154492.12 283421.52 288030.97 335541.98 19862.62 19862.00 10000.00 5000.00 17809.69 32638.05 27629.06 38735.50 6964.53 20042.26 24601.22 34490.52 268.30 268.30 268.30 268.30 254.79 399.28 399.28 399.28 48.59 1128.58 1128.58 1128.58 44993.30 72151.55 61839.51 77835.26 3357.64 6442.44 8442.44 10442.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22479.11 22479.11 22479.11 22479.11 25836.75 28921.55 30921.55 32921.55 70830.05 101073.10 92761.06 110756.80 5009.27 5117.81 5269.83 5617.07 52847.00 73847.00 73847.00 73847.00 57.37 68517.37 68517.37 68517.37 5531.73 6899.40 8814.82 13190.03 20216.71 27966.84 38820.89 63613.72 78652.80 177230.61 190000.08 219168.11 154492.12 283421.52 288030.97 335541.98 :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 16 -
12 /, 12 /, :www.xyzq.com.cn E-mail:zhangym@xyzq.com.cn - 17 -