No. C2005010 2005-12 No. C2005010 2005 12 30 1
No. C2005010 2005 12 30 2
1 2005 1,, 2001, 2003 3
1998 5 Zeng Yi, James W. Vaupel, and Wang Zhenglian. 1997. A Multidimensional Model for Projecting Family Households -- With an Illustrative Numerical Application. Mathematical Population Studies 6: 187-216. Zeng Yi, James W. Vaupel and Wang Zhenglian 1998. Household Projection Using Conventional Demographic Data. Population and Development Review, Supplementary Issue: Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Volume 24: 59-87. Zeng Yi, Kenneth C. Land, Zhenglian Wang, and Gu Danan. 2006. U.S. Family Household Dynamics and Momentum -- Extension of ProFamy Method and Application. Forthcoming in Population Research and Policy Review. 4
15,2003 5 16 t i TFR * i(t)t i r i (t) t i TFR i (t) 1998TFR i (t)= TFR * i (t)1- r i (t)r i (t)<1 2004 1 17, 2000 1 1991 2000 2003 2 Bongaarts, John and Griffith Feeney (1998) On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review, 24 (2): 271-291. Zeng, Yi and K. C. Land (2001). A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaarts- Feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates. Demography 38 (1): 17-28. Zeng Yi and Kenneth C. Land (2002). Adjusting Period Tempo Changes with an Extension of Ryder s Basic Translation Equation. Demography, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 269-285. 5
18 6
% 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 65+ 80+ 65+ 80+ 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 7
8
GDP 27% 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 9
5 10
2000 2002 2005 124.7 26% 6% B, 27% 29 27 2005 1 28 11
2000 2015 2030 2050 2080 118.7 114.2 110.5 106.4 106 105 106 105 106 105 118.7 114.2 116.45 111.95 114.2 109.7 114.2 109.7 114.2 109.7 30 2003 31 2000-2080 15-49 4 2 2000-2080 20-51 18-49 22-51 20-49 () 0 ( 50 2000 403020100 20102020203020402050 50 ) 32 12
14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 % 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 33, 5 13
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 () 0.12 0.43 0.78 1.30 1.96 2.67 3.45 4.20 (%) 0-14 100 94.7 66.5 54.0 49.20 39.4 33.6 29.6 15-34 0 5.3 33.5 44.3 37.6 38.6 38.2 33.8 35-54 0 0 0 1.7 13.2 21.5 21.2 23.8 55-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 6.6 7.5 15-64 0 5.3 33.5 46.0 50.8 60.6 65.9 65.1 65-79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 5.3 80+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 5.7 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 14
15
16
1984 1987 1984 4.55 1984-1987 1987 1984 4.55 1987 55.8% 80 70 1987 1984 32.3% 21.1% 0.96-9% 34 1987 1984 4.55 20102015-2020 2025 20-39 2005 3%6% 11% 2000 17
1990 1 1.6 3.1 15-20 35 51 36 37 1997 2001 80 2000 20022005 18
( ) 38 39, 4 2 31 3 2 2.51 2 1 1.51 23/1.5 1.672.5/1.5 38 19
20