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The PRC s Taiwan Polices during the Chen Shui-Bian and Ma Ying-Jeou Government Analyzed by Rational Actor Model and Soft Power Theory 101 6 11

i

The PRC s Taiwan Polices during the Chen Shui-Bian and Ma Ying-Jeou Government Analyzed by Rational Actor Model and Soft Power Theory Abstract The purpose of the thesis is to study the PRC s Taiwan policies during the Chen Shui-Bian government and Ma Ying-Jeou Government. Theoretically, by adopting the rational actor model and soft power theory, this study tries to analyze and compare the PRC s policies toward Taiwan during the Chen and Ma government. By using the historical research approach and document analysis method, this research collects the related data systematically. The author found that the orientation of the PRC s Taiwan policies is rational. Meanwhile, after Hu Jing-Taou s taking power in China, the PRC government absorbs the concept of soft power developed by western scholar, and applies soft power in its Taiwan policies by way of economic means. The PRC s new strategies toward Taiwan have deepened Taiwan s reliance on Mainland China economically. Beijing s new strategies also put more pressure on Taipei s political leader to launch political negotiations with Beijing. Keywords: The PRC s Taiwan Policy, Rational Actor Model, Soft Power, Ma Ying-Jeou Government, Chen Shui-Bian Government ii

1 1 2 16 17 19 19 30 35 42 45 45 47 49 53 57 57 63 72 75 75 78 81 81 82 85 iii

28 39 51 60 61 65 71 82 iv

17 v

12 2000 5 2008 5 2008 5 10 2002 10 2008 3 11 2002 10 1

Graham Allison 1971 Essence of Decision 1 1999 1971 2 3 1 Graham Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little Brown, 1971). 2 Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2 nd ed. (New York: Longman, 1999), p. vii. 3 40 5 1997 5 36~58 31 4 1997 4 2

4 David Easton 5 6 7 Thucydides Peloponnesian War 8 99~111 7 1997 3 67~103 4 73 5 David Easton, The Political System (New York: Knopf. 1953), p.37. 6 James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr., Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, 3 rd,ed. (New York: Harper & Row, 1990), p. 469. 7 Ibid., Decision-Making Theories 8 Thucydides: The History of the Peloponnesian War. Richard Crawley. Trans. Revised by R. Eeetham. Encyclopedia Britannica Great Books of the Western World Vol. 6 (Chicago: Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc. 1990 [1952]). Cited by Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff. Contending Theories of International Relations, p. 469. 3

9 1950 10 11 12 Essence of Decision Rational Actor Model Organizational Process Model Bureaucratic Politics Model 13 the Cybernetic Model the Domestic Politics Model the Idiosyncratic Model 14 9 Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff. Contending Theories of International Theories, p. 468. 10 Angus Campbell. Paul E. Converse, William E. Miller, and Daniel Stokes, The American Voter (New York: Wiley, 1960). 11 Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff, Contending Theories of International Relations, p. 468. Paul Wasserman and Fred S. Silander, Decision-Making: An Annotated Bibliography (Ithaca, NY: Graduate School of Business and Public Administration, Cornell University, 1958). 12 John R. Oneal, Foreign Policy Making in Times of Crisis (Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1982), Chapter 2. 13 Graham Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little Brown, 1971). 14 Sheng-ping Hu, Unfinished Policy Change: Kennedy s China Policy from the Analytical Standpoint of Decision-Making Models (Taipei: Weber Publication International Ltd., 2005), pp. 17-30. 4

utility probability 15 Organizational Decision-Making Processes Model irrational 16 17 outputs 18 19 client 20 Merton dysfunctions 15 Graham Allison, Essence of Decision., p. 3. 16 Robert Simon, The Proverbs of Administration, Public Administration Review 6 (Winter 1946): 53-67. 17 Max Weber, Economy and Society: An Outcome of Interpretative Analogy. Edited by Guenther Roth and Claus Wittich. Vol. 2 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1978), p. 1393. 18 Weber, Economy and Society, p. 471. 19 Pfeffer, Organizations and Organization Theory, p. 325. 20 Elizabeth Chell. The Psychology of Behaviour in Organizations (London: The Macmillan Press, 1987), p.164. 5

21 22 Norbert WeinerCybernetics self-regulation 23 system of precedents internalization 24 21 Robert A. Ullrich and Geroge F. Wieland, Organization Theory and Design, Revised Ed. (Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin, Inc., 1980), p. 19. 22 Anthony Downs, Inside Bureaucracy (Boston: Little Brown, 1967), pp. 16-17. 23 Jay M. Shafritz and J. Steven Ott, Classics of Organization Theory, 2 nd. Ed., Revised and Expanded (Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole Publishing Co., 1987), p. 235. 24 James G. March and Herbert Simon, Organizations (New York: Wiley, 1958), pp. 53-54. 6

25 26 27 Kenneth LieberthalMichael Oksenberg Rationality model factional/power model fragmented bureaucratic structure 28 25 William P. Duandt, Decade of Decisions (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1977), p. 15. 26 Jaw-Lin Chang, The Process of Normalization of relations between the US and the PRC, 1969-1978: A Retrospective Evaluation of Decision-Making Models in US Foreign Policy (Ann Arbor, Michigan: University Microfilms International, 1985), p.231. 27 102 28 Kenneth Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structure, and Processes (Princetion, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1988). 7

Carol Lee Hamrin Sui Sheng Zhao 29 30 1980 31 1980 Doak A. Barnett 32 David Shambaugh 33 34 1990 29 Carlo Lee Hamrin and Sui Sheng Zhao, Decision Making in Deng s China: Perspectives from Insiders (N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 1995), pp. 233~241. 30 Ibid., pp. 242~244. 31 Yu, Bin, The Study of Chinese Foreign Policy: Problems and Prospect, World Politics, vol. 46, no. 2 (January 1994), pp. 236~244. 32 A. Doak Barnett, The Making of Foreign Policy in China (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1985). 33 David Shambaugh, Beautiful Imperialist: China Perceives America, 1972-1990 ( Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991); Chih-Yu Chih, The Spirit of Chinese Foreign Policy: A Psychocultural View (New York: St. Martin s Press, 1990). 34 2000 8

35 36 37 David Lampton 1990 38 39 40 2004 35 43 1 2004 1 2 105~124 36 2003 37 1999 38 David M. Lampton ed., The Making of Chinese and Security Policyin the Era of Reform Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2001. 39 67 2003 2 18~21 1 10 2001 12 5~13 153 1996 12 10 12~13 20 3 1994 3 8~19 1996 37 2 1994 2 46~56 1950-1989 1990 Lin, Chong-Pin, Beijing s Taiwan Policy: tactical Adjustment and Strategic Persistence, 2 1 2002 12 151~178 2003 Raoph N. Clough, Cooperation or Conflict in the Taiwan Strait (New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 1999). 40 37 5 1994 5 20~30 36~58 67~103 Michael D. Swaine, Chinese Decision-Making Regarding Taiwan, 1979-2000, in David M. Lampton ed., The Making of Chinese and Security Policyin the Era of Reform Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2001, pp. 289~336. 9

Joseph Nye 1990 41 42 Hans Morganthou hard power 43 power 44 41 Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Soft Power, Foreign Policy, Issues 80 (Fall, 1990), pp. 153-171. 42 Joseph S, Nye, Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004), p. 2Joseph S. Nye, Jr. 2006 20 43 20 90 Joseph Nye, Bound to Lead : The Changing Nature of American Power (NewYork.: Basic Books 1990); Joseph Nye, Soft Power :The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004). Joseph Nye, Soft Power, Foreign Policy (Fall 1990); Joseph Nye, The Changing Nature of World Power, Political Science Quarterly, vol.105, Issue 2 (Summer 1990); Joseph Nye, On the Rise and fall of American Soft Power, New Perspectives Quarterly,vol.22, no.3 (Summer 2005); Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S.Nye Jr., Power and Interdependence in the Information Age, Foreign Affairs (September/October 1998). 44 Joseph S.Nye,Jr, Slft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs 2004), p. 2, p, 11. 10

45 46 47 2005 45 Joseph S. Nye Jr., The Rise of China's Soft Power, The Wall Street Journal Asia December 29 2005 Bates Gill and Yanzhong Huang, Sources and Limits of Chinese Soft Power, Survival, vol.48, no.2(2007), pp.17-36 Joshua Kurlantzick, China's Charm: Implications of Chinese Soft Power, Carnegie Endowment, Policy Brief 47 (June 2006); Joshua Kurlantzick, China's Charm Offensive in Southeast Asia, Current History, vol.105 Issue 692 (September 2006), pp.270-276; Joshua Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China s Soft Power Is Transforming the World (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2007). 46 7 2007 6 47 Bonnie S. Glaser and Evan S. Medeiros, The Changing Ecology of Foreign Policy-Making in China: The ascension and Demise of the Theory of Peaceful Rise, China Quarterly, 190 (June 2007), pp. 291-310. 11

48 49 50 48 2004 5 12 A15 49 2004 8 61-622004 3 25-28 2004 4 55-62 2005 5 39-45 2004 19 19-21 2006 3 148-156 50 2006 101-115 116-133 134-140 2005 11 7 62 2006 1 2 63 2005 12 55-63 2005 12 64-71 2006 5 90-94 2006 1 15-20 2005 6 89-93 2005 2 30-33 12

51 52 51 Hongying Wang, Chinese Conception of Soft Power and Its Policy Implications, in Wang Gungwu and Zheng Yongnian, eds., China in the New International Order (London: Routledge, 2008). 52 2007 7 7-8 13

53 1990 54 53 2007 7 12 54 1990 1999 2009 6 2009 9 2009 14

utility 55 56 57 55 Graham Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little Brown, 1971), p 3); James E.Dougherty and Robert Pfaltzgraff, Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, Fifth Edition (New York: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc, 2001), pp. 560-1; Graham Evans and Jeffrey Newnham, The Penguin Dictionary of International Relations (New York, NY: Penguin Books, 1988), pp. 462-4. 56 1989 25-6 57 James E. Dougherty and Robert Pfaltzgraff, Contending Theories of International Relations, pp. 15

Documental Analysis 351-5. 58 1999 25~28 16

1-1 1-1 2000 5 2012 5 17

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1 2 2002 11 2003 3 2004 9 3 2003 1 1992 1999 162~165 2 1 10 2001 7-9 3 2005 14 2005 139 19

4 5 6 7 4 1995 17-25 5 6 2002 7 1980 20

asymmetric conflict symmetric conflict 8 1989 5 26 9 10 1992 10 1993 11 1993 6 12 1993 6 13 1993 2000 1995 8 Hugh iall, Oliver Ramsbotham and Tom Woodhouse, Contemporary Conflict Resolution (Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing Inc., 1999), pp. 12-14. 9 1990 159 10 Robert Lawrence Kuhn 2005 143 11 : 1993 5 29 4 12 37 2 1994 2 48~49 13 1 10 2001 12 11 21

1993 1992 1997 1992 10 150 F-16 1995 1996 1999 1990 1995 1999 7 2000 22

1993 9 1 1995 1997 2000 2 21 1 1993 14 1993 8 31 15 16 17 14 1994 321~323 15 1993 9 7 9 16 51 17 1993 9 1 9 2001 655 23

18 2 1995 1 30 19 20 3 1997 21 4 2000 22 2 21 18 1996 260 19 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 2000 ) 232~237 20 234 21 : 2001 698 22 2000 2 29 http://www.future-china.org/fcn-tw/200003/2000030113.htm 24

23 2000 24 25 8 26 27 28 2000 29 2000 8 8 2002 7 23 346~363 113 2000 5 1 15 24 5 2001 9 49~50 25 818~819 26 2001 12 495 27 2000 5 21 1 28 489 29 2000 8 9 26~29 46 2 2003 3 4 42 25

30 31 32 1993 33 34 1999 7 1996 35 1995 6 30 42~43 31 43 32 47 33 2009 2001 5 3 13 34 1995 2 22 2 35 26 9 2000 9 83~84 26

36 37 38 1996 3 39 2002 11 2003 3 10 2-1 36 77 1997 5 29 37 1996 36 371~372 38 : 1998 70 39 1998 7 3 3 27

2004 3 2005 3 2005 40 2-1 40 No. 940003 2005 1-10 28

41 2001 42 2000 2002 2003 2004 43 41 2003 36-44 42 43 2 2003 79-102 911 31 1 2003 84-92 43 2005 216 29

44 60 2003: 160 2004: 213 45 2003 46 21 20 2004 12 2005 4 44 2003 45 45 2003 160 1949-2000 4 2004 189-228 46 2004 4 22 2004 1~30 9 2005 43~84 30

de jure 47 2002 48 2002 10 2008 3 11 2004 5 17 2005 3 2005 3 2005 4 2005 4 2008 3 2000 3 18 William Jefferson Clinton 49 (American Institute in Taipei, AIT) (Raymond Burghardt) 47 Robert L. Suettinger, China s Foreign Policy Leadership: testing time, China Leadership Monitor, 9(Winter 2004), p. 2. 48 2005 506 49 2004 165-75 31

2000 5 20 50 2002 8 3 51 2002 9 28 2006 2008 2003 52 50 -- 2000 5 23 http://www.president.gov.tw/php-bin/prez/showspeak.php4?_section=4&_piecelen=50&_orderby= issuedate%2crid&_desc=1&_recno=2302 51 2002 8 3 http://www.mofa.gov.tw/newmofa/president/910803.htm 52 2003 9 29 2 32

2004 3 2003 3 2003 3 3 11 2003 53 2004 3 2004 5 17 53 2003 3 12 13 33

2004 54 2005 3 4 54 2004 5 17 A1 34

55 1949 2004 5 2008 3 2005 3 2005 4 2005 4 2008 3 2005 3 4 2005 3 14 56 55 2005 3 5 A1 56 2005 3 15 http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2005-03/14/content_2694168. 35

2005 4 2008 3 2005 4 29 56 57 2005 3 htm 2005 3 15 A2 57 2005 5 1 http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/tai_gang_ao/2005-04/29/content_2897082.htm 36

2006 1 29 2006 2006 Bradsher, 2006 58 2006 2 26 59 2006a 2006 4 16 58 2006 1 30 A1 2006 1 30 A1 Keith Bradsher, Taiwan Leader Calls for End of Unification Council, The New York Times, January 31 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/31/international/asia/31cnd-taiwan.html. 59 2006 3 2 http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/tai_gang_ao/2006-02/28/content_4237886.htm 37

2006b 60 2005 3 4 2005 4 29 61 2005 4 2006 4 2007 6 18 Heritage Foundation Edwin J.Feulner,Jr. 62 60 2006 4 18 http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/tai_gang_ao/2005-03/04/content_2649922.htm 61 2005 4 2006 4 paradigm shift 2006 5 1 A15 62 2007 6 18 13 2007 6 19 A4 38

2007 10 15 2006 4 16 63 2005 4 29 2-2 2005 4 2007 4 54 2005 2-2 2003 3 11 63 2007 10 24 http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2007-10/24/content_6938568_9.ht 2007 10 16 A3 39

2004 5 17 2005 3 4 2005 3 14 2005 4 29 40

2006 2 26 2006 4 16 2007 10 15 6 64 64 2005 8 1 2006 5 1 41

2006 4 15 2006 10 20 2007 4 13 54 28 9 4 4 3 3 2 1 1995 2006 65 2003 3 65 2009 221 42

66 2004 3 66 1996 2000 130 43

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