2004 4 4 100026788 (2004) 0420023211 21 (2001-2020), (, 361005) 1985 2000, ;, GD P 5000-10000, 21 (2001-2020) ; ; C94 A T he Sim u lating R elating2pattern of Population Indu stry Structu re, Environm en tal Po llu tion and Econom ic D evelopm en t in Early 21st Ch ina (2001-2020) M I Hong, CH EN Zh i2jian (A utom atic D epartm ent, X iam en U niversity, X iam en 361005, Ch ina) Abstract O n the basis of quantity2analysis research on Ch ina s population industry structure, environ2 m ental po llution, GD P and industry structure betw een 1985 and 2000, our paper w o rk s out one trans2 fo rm ation pattern of Ch ina s population industry structure and environm ental po llution. In addition, w e emp loy the population industry structure and environm ental po llution data of the five w estern developed countries w hen their average GD P w ere betw een U S 5000-10000 fo r cluster2 ing2analysiṡ Consequently, w e w o rk out the sim ulating relating- pattern of population industry struc2 ture, environm ental po llution and econom ic developm ent in Early 21st Ch ina (2001-2020). Key words population industry structure; environm ental po llution; sim ulation 1,,,,, 1) ; 2) 2 ; 3) ; 4), ; 5) [ 1 ],,, 2003204213 ( 012 ); (D 0210002) (1962- ),,,, ;,
24 2004 ;, 20,, [ 2 ],, 1985, ( ) GD P 5000 10000 CO 2,, 21 (2001-2020) 2, 50 60, 1949 5. 4 1972 8. 7, 2. 09% 20 70,, 1989 11, 1995 12, 2000 12. 6583, [ 1 2020-2030 15, ] 20 80,,,,, 1985 62. 42%, 3. 113 ; 2000 52%, 3. 5576 ; 1 [ 3 ] 2 1,,, 1994,, 1994,, 1 2
21 (2001-2020) 25 3 20 70,,, 90,,,, [ 2, 4, 5 ] 1),, 26. 9% ; 37. 7%,, 1989,, ( 3) [ 3 ]. 2) 3,, CO 2 ( 4) [ 3, 6 ] 4,,, 2000 138145, 1985 73970, 15, CO 2 4 CO 2, 1985,,, CO 2 2,
26 2004 [7 ] 5 CO 2 3) 6, 80,,, 90, 1997, 1990 57979, 1997 65750, 1. 6% 1998 2000,,,,, 1992 54233, [ 8 1998 65412, ] [6 ] 6 4,, X 1, X 2, X 3 ; Y 1, Y 2, Y 3, GD P GD P GD P Z 1, Z 2, Z 3 ; W 1, W 2 CO 2, W 3 SO 2, W 4, W 5, SPSS11. 0,, SO 2 SO 2
21 (2001-2020) 27 4. 1 1 2 B T S IG V IF 88. 266 7. 931 0. 000-2. 001 0. 411 0. 000 1. 092-0. 738 0. 298 0. 028 1. 092 W 1 = 88. 266-2. 0013 X 2-0. 7383 Y 3 (1) B T S IG V IF 88. 391 13. 096 0. 000-0. 850-4. 640 0. 000 1. 037-0. 864-8. 894 0. 000 1. 037 W 1 = 86. 391-0. 8503 Y 3-0. 8643 Y 2 (2),, (1), 1, 2. 001, 1, 0. 738 ; (2),, W 1,, 0. 864, 0. 850 1985 2000 16, 7. 8, 4. 7, 4. 2 CO 2 3 CO 2 4 CO 2 B T S IG V IF - 3. 631-5. 621 0. 000 0. 136 2. 156 0. 050 5. 244 0. 065 2. 685 0. 019 5. 244 W 2 = - 3. 631 + 0. 136g X 2 + 0. 0653 Y 2 (3) B T S IG V IF - 3. 924-5. 413 0. 000 0. 108 10. 072 0. 000 1. 037 0. 045 2. 231 0. 044 1. 037 W 2 = - 3. 924 + 0. 108g Y 2 + 0. 045g Y 3 (4) CO 2,,, ; (3),, 1, CO 2 0. 136,,,, 30%, 2000 25% (4), CO 2, 0. 108 0. 045, CO 2,, 4. 3 W 5 = - 17311. 4 + 686. 0173 X 2 + 332. 6793 Y 3 (5)
(5) 5 686. 017, 1 B T S IG V IF, 686. 017-17311. 4-4. 348 0. 001, 686. 017 1 4. 662 0. 000 1. 092,, 332. 679 3. 124 0. 008 1. 092, 1 1. 95%,,, 4. 4 28 2004 6 7 B T S IG 353. 747 5. 968 0. 000 8. 661 3. 206 0. 006 B T S IG 183. 975-1. 162 0. 265 32. 027 4. 585 0. 000 W 4 = 353. 647 + 8. 6613 X 3 (6) W 4 = - 183. 965 + 32. 0273 X 2 (7) (6) (7), (6), 1, 32. 027, 8. 661 g,,,, 5,,,,, GD P CO 2, [ 7 11,, ], 11 CO 2 ( ) GD P ( ) GD P (% ) (% ) (% ) (% ) (% ) (% ) (% ) [ 7, 9, 10 ] SPSS11. 0 CO 2 ( ) GD P ( ) (% ) (% ) (% ) (% (% ) (% ) 8, 8 8,, 8, 10%, 10%,, 3%, 50%, 64%,,,
21 (2001-2020) 29, 48%,, 27% 8 1 2 3 4 CO 2 ( ) 10. 40 9. 34 10. 94 12. 25 GD P ( ) 5445. 00 6951. 11 8272. 31 9410. 00 (% ) 4. 81 5. 02 4. 19 2. 74 (% ) 42. 19 42. 28 39. 33 39. 41 (% ) 49. 64 54. 95 56. 47 57. 86 (% ) 9. 35 10. 20 7. 50 3. 39 (% ) 35. 95 35. 79 33. 97 32. 43 (% ) 54. 69 54. 01 58. 53 64. 19,,,,, 49. 64% 57. 86%,,,, 2000 50. 90%, 33. 20%, 15. 90%,, 6, 21, ( GD P 5000 ), 2040 GD P5000,, GD P, GD P 2040 SPSS11. 0 21 [ 7 GD P ] 6. 1 2040, SPSS11. 0,, 70 LO G IST, S IG 0. 000, F 581. 17, 7,, 1985, 1985 X 1, 1896 2,, 2040 X 1 = 1g(1g70 + 0. 00193 1. 0749 t ) X 1, t 2001 2020 ( 9). 9 2001 2020 48. 14 47. 04 45. 91 44. 76 43. 58 42. 38 41. 17 39. 94 38. 69 37. 44 36. 18 34. 91 33. 65 32. 39 31. 14 29. 89 28. 66 27. 45 26. 25 25. 08 6. 2,,, LO G IST
30 2004 10, 42. 19, 50, S IG 0. 000, F 448. 83 X 2 = 1g(1g50 + 0. 02943 0. 9772 t ), X 2, 2001 2020 10. 10 2001 2020 25. 09 25. 37 25. 66 25. 95 26. 24 26. 52 26. 81 27. 10 27. 38 27. 67 27. 95 28. 24 28. 52 28. 80 29. 08 29. 36 29. 64 29. 92 30. 20 30. 47 7 8 6. 3, LO G IST ( 9) X 3 = 1g(1g65 + 0. 04813 0. 9506 t ) F 1315. 96, S IG 0. 000, 65 2001 2020 11 11 2001 2020 28. 00 28. 81 29. 63 30. 44 31. 27 32. 09 32. 91 33. 73 34. 56 35. 37 36. 19 37. 00 37. 80 38. 60 39. 39 40. 17 40. 95 41. 71 42. 46 43. 20 6. 4,, Y 1 = 29. 6034-0. 94433 t + 0. 00893 t 2 (F 211. 48, S IG 0. 000) Y 2 = 40. 5743-0. 81233 t - 0. 01403 t 2 (F 20. 60, S IG 0. 000) Y 3 = 29. 8223-0. 13203 t + 0. 00503 t 2 (F 98. 99, S IG 0. 000), 10 11 12, 2001 2020 12 13 14
21 (2001-2020) 31 12 2001 2020 16. 12 15. 48 14. 87 14. 27 13. 69 13. 13 12. 59 12. 06 11. 55 11. 06 10. 59 10. 13 9. 69 9. 28 8. 87 8. 49 8. 12 7. 78 7. 44 7. 13 9 10 13 2001 2020 50. 49 50. 82 51. 13 51. 40 51. 65 51. 87 52. 06 52. 22 52. 36 52. 46 52. 54 52. 59 52. 62 52. 61 52. 58 52. 52 52. 43 52. 31 52. 17 52. 00 14 2001 2020 33. 51 33. 82 34. 14 34. 46 34. 80 35. 15 35. 50 35. 87 36. 25 36. 63 37. 03 37. 44 37. 86 38. 28 38. 72 39. 17 39. 62 40. 09 40. 57 41. 05 6. 5 GD P, GD P 2040, 5700, LO G IST ( 13), Y 9 = 1g(1g5700 + 0. 00873 0. 8787 t ) (F 784. 69, S IG 0. 000) Y 9 GD P 2001 2040 GD P, 15 15 2001 2020 GD P GD P ( ) 876. 37 976. 62 1085. 76 1203. 99 1331. 37 1467. 83 1613. 11 1766. 77 1928. 16 2096. 44 GD P ( ) 2270. 56 2449. 31 2631. 34 2815. 18 2999. 31 3182. 20 3362. 36 3538. 38 3709. 00 3873. 10
32 2004 11 12 7 GD P,, 20, 16 16 2001 2020 GD P, GD P ( ) (t) CO 2 (t) (m 3 ) (kg) 2001 876. 37 13. 79 3. 00 10691. 86 607. 88 2002 976. 62 13. 12 3. 05 10893. 55 615. 87 2003 1085. 76 12. 45 3. 11 11089. 32 624. 06 2004 1203. 99 11. 79 3. 16 11280. 64 632. 22 2005 1331. 37 11. 12 3. 21 11466. 04 640. 45 2006 1467. 83 10. 46 3. 26 11642. 54 648. 49 2007 1613. 11 9. 81 3. 30 11817. 56 656. 68 2008 1766. 77 9. 16 3. 34 11983. 68 664. 88 2009 1928. 16 8. 52 3. 38 12147. 59 672. 95 2010 2096. 44 7. 88 3. 42 12299. 63 680. 67 2011 2270. 56 7. 25 3. 45 12453. 17 689. 14 2012 2449. 31 6. 61 3. 49 12597. 80 697. 29 2013 2631. 34 5. 99 3. 52 12736. 51 705. 24 2014 2815. 18 5. 38 3. 55 12867. 07 713. 19 2015 2999. 31 4. 76 3. 57 12995. 4 721. 09 2016 3182. 20 4. 14 3. 60 13118. 55 728. 96 2017 3362. 36 3. 55 3. 62 13236. 51 736. 82 2018 3538. 38 2. 95 3. 63 13345. 58 744. 59 2019 3709. 00 2. 35 3. 65 13452. 43 752. 32 2020 3873. 10 1. 77 3. 67 13550. 38 759. 85 16, (1) (2) ; CO 2 (3) (4) ; (5); (6) (7)
21 (2001-2020) 33 8 1), 20,, 2010, 37. 44%, 2020 25. 28% ;,, 2020, 30. 47% ; 43. 23%, 2) GD P, 2010 GD P 2001, 1903. 55, 2020 3396. 03, 2010 1. 78 3.,, 2010 11. 06%, 2020 7. 13% ;, 13 GD P 2013 52. 61%,, ;,, 2001 2010, 0. 312% ; 2020 41. 05% 4),,, 5) 20, CO 2, 2020 3. 68, 0. 68 CO 2 9. 37, CO 2,, 3. 68 CO 2,, 6), 2010 680. 67, 2020 759. 85,,,,,,,,, [1 ]. [M ]., 2001. [2 ]. [M ]., 2002. [3 ]. 1986 2001 [M ].. [4 ]. [M ]., 2000. [5 ]. ( ) [M ]., 2001. [6 ]. 1986 2001 [M ].. [7 ]. 1998 2000 [M ].. [8 ],. [M ]., 2001. [9 ]. 1988 1989[M ]. ; 1990 1999.. [10 ]. 1995, 1996 ;. 1997 1999.. [11 ]. SPSS fo r W indow s [M ]., 2002.