(002409) 2011 11 16 2009 85% 10 2010-2014 3.5% 9 43 50 9%2015 68 2011-2013 0.680.84 1.08 2011 11 15 28.00 PE 4133 26 2011 2012 PE 36 17 2010 11% 2% -7% -15% -24% -33% -41% 11/5/16 11/6/30 11/8/14 11/9/28 11/11/12 2011/11/15 28.00 52 45.28 52 24.32 33.55 2011Q3 11,088 A 11,088 0.53 10.08-0.03 2.78 () (%) () (%) EPS () ROE (%) () 2010 892.64 56.43% 66.91-6.58% 0.60 46.7 2011E 953.58 6.83% 74.91 11.96% 0.68 41.2 2012E 1135.68 19.10% 92.77 23.85% 0.84 33.3 2013E 1319.88 16.22% 119.36 28.66% 1.08 25.9 (%) : S0550511010010 TEL: (8621)6337 4944 FAX: (8621)6337 3209 Email: qinc@nesc.cn : 45 20 : 200002
1.1 2009 85% 1 68.55% 2 2
1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 1.2 2011 1-9 74605.54 13.50% 5909.60 2011 0-30% 3 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 20% 11 12 3
4 5 8.0% 50 7.0% 40 6.0% 30 5.0% 20 4.0% 10 3.0% 0 2.1 2009 2010 2011 20 80 4
2007 170 2008 195 2010 230 2014 262 2010-2014 3.5% 6 Freedonia 2005 35 2008 41 2010 50 2014 61 2010-2014 5.5% 7 Freedonia 2005 38% 33% 11% 18%2008 34%29%10% 27% 5
8 European Plastics News 2.2 9 A 1986 32000 / 24500 / 2010 16800 / 6
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120 2 TCPPBDP 80% (J.M. Huber Corporation) Kyowa Chemical Industry Nabaltec GmbH 3 Albemarle Chemtura ICL Industrial Products 100 (TASE) 2010 6.87 2008 16 2007 2008 5 3 8
10 2 1.5 1.5 BDP/RDP 1.2 TCPP TCEPBDP 2.78 1 RDT-3-5000 5000 7800 A 2.6 40000-60000 / 2.3 85% 12 TCPPTDCPTEP 9
BDPRDPTPPHPP TCPP TDCP() 6-7% 35-40% 4-5% 70-80% 2010 1365 2016 1794.62 4.7%2010 95% 30 2015 40 PC PC/ABSHIPSPPO/HIPS / PC/ABS 10% BDPRDPTPP PC/ABS PC/ABS HIPS 20 2015 25 2-3 50 5 9%2015 68 2.4 2011 39 2007 24 62.5% 18% 13 10
() 40% 2% () 60 20 / 15-17 20 14 2.5 GB20286-2006 GB8624-2006 800010000 2 10%15% 20003000 GB20286-2006 20 80% 400 95% 40% 2004 50% 65% 25% 11
15% 10%2009 2009 23.65% 55% (EPS)(XPS) TCPPTDCPTEP 3.1 70% 2010 76.22% 2010 6.89 2006 6.80 2010 41% 2011 15 2010 2010 9 ( 6.346 )43 12
16 () 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 176 6.35 CFR 31-32% P 2 O 5 1276-1365 / 31% 630-650 / 17 2003-2010 8000 25% 7000 6000 20% 5000 15% 4000 3000 10% 2000 5% 1000 0 0% 2 --- 13
3.2 115000 TCPP5000 TDCP16000 TEP25000 BDP5000 RDP 15000 TPP310000 PEPA5000 Trimer 5000 PEPA Trimer 100000 50000 80000 10% 29% 2.7 / 18 4 () TCPP 1.5 TDCP 2.8 0.5 TEP 1.6 6.4 BDP 0.5 0.2 RDP 0.5 TPP 1.5 2.7 PEPA 1 0.5 Trimer 0.5 0.5 3 10.1 10 5 (10%) 8 8 2010 6 TEPTPP 1 30% TEPTPP 14
/ PEPA Trimer 1-2 5 2011 2011 (%) 68.81% 2012 7 31 80.49% 2011 10 31 92.20% 2012 06 30 10 3.3 PC/ABS PBT TDCP 1 PEPA Trimer PEPA PBT PEPA Trimer 21% 2-3 / PEPA Trimer 2-3 / 6 () 79426.56 32017.97 3187 115 9631.31 4000 6250 12000 12225.28 15
1 2 3 7 2010A 2011E 2012E 2013E 759750000 812580000 930680000 1040880000 628921050 683379780 769931040 839616000 17.22% 15.90% 17.27% 19.34% () 88200000 96000000 96000000 96000000 () 78074640 76512000 76800000 76800000 11.48% 20.30% 20.00% 20.00% () 37020000 45000000 45000000 45000000 () 28394340 34938000 34875000 34875000 23.30% 22.36% 22.50% 22.50% / () 54000000 108000000 () 49950000 99900000 7.5% 7.5% () 10000000 30000000 () 8500000 25500000 15% 15% 884970000 953580000 1135680000 1319880000 735390030 794829780 944106040 1084791000 16.90% 16.65% 16.87% 17.81% 2011-2013 0.680.84 1.08 2011 11 15 28.00 PE 4133 26 2011/11/15 2011 2012 PE 36 17 2010 16
8 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E () 892.64 953.58 1,135.68 1,319.88 741.14 795.83 944.11 1,084.79 5.42 5.44 6.47 7.92 18.55 15.35 18.17 20.72 47.29 56.26 62.46 69.95-3.97-11.44-9.31-8.32 4.07 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 () 80.13 87.64 109.78 141.81 1.71 2.50 2.00 2.00 0.77 0 0 0 () 81.07 90.14 111.78 143.81 14.16 15.23 19.00 24.45 () 66.91 74.91 92.77 119.36 0 0 0 0 66.91 74.91 92.77 119.36 0.60 0.68 0.84 1.08 Wind 9 () X 2011/11/15 2010 2011E 2012E 2010 2011E 2012E 300121 15.42 0.59 0.26 0.92 26 58 17 300214 20.59 0.81 0.86 1.39 25 24 15 300243 30.06 1.09 0.99 1.42 28 30 21 002068 8.24 0.21 0.25 0.40 39 33 21 300108 20.73 0.56 0.53 1.38 37 39 15 002442 10.33 0.41 0.36 0.64 25 29 16 30 36 17 Wind 1 2 3 17
: 6 12 6 12 6 12 : 6 12 15% 6 12 5 15% 6 12 ±5% 6 12 5% 18