2008.4 影 响 中 国 农 户 采 用 节 水 灌 溉 技 术 行 为 的 * 因 素 分 析 1 2 2 Logit Logit 70% 一 农 户 节 水 灌 溉 技 术 采 用 行 为 研 究 综 述 1. Caswell et al. 1985 Caswell et al. 1986 Dinar et al. 1992 Green et al. 1996 Schuck et al. 2005 2. * 04CZZ015 211-44 -
Carey et al. 2002 Cai et al. 2004 SPM SPM Dridi et al. 2005 1. 1996 2. 2000 2001 2004 Logit 2005 2005 二 激 励 农 户 采 用 节 水 灌 溉 技 术 因 素 的 理 论 分 析 -45-
1. Saha et al. 1994 Khanna 2001 2005 2. 3. Fliegel et al. 1966 1993 Ervin & Evrin 1982 2005 4. Feder et al. 1985 Bonabana-Wabbi 1998 Saha et al. 1994 Maria 2005 Carchi Integrated Pest Management Technologies IPM 2005 1994 1998 2005 5.2005 6. 2005 7. -46-
Negatu et al. 1999 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. -47-
三 激 励 中 国 农 户 采 用 节 水 灌 溉 技 术 因 素 的 实 证 分 析 Logit 2 SPSS11.5 Logit 2006 48 2585 2452 1968 1 1 1968 364 213 118 41 420 380 355 37 40 31 1 6 8 10 11 23 29 30 2006 a 2 2 X 1 X 2 - X 3-1 1 2 =1 2 5 =2 5 =3 X 4 - X 5 =1 =0 X 6 3 =1 =0-48-
2 X 7 =1 =0 X 8 45 45 45 45 =1 45 =0 X 9 =1 =0 X 10 X 11 =1 =0 X 12 =1 =0 X 13 =1 =0 X 14 2005 / X 15 =1 =0 X 16 =1 =0 X 17 =1 =0 X 18 =1 =0 X 19 =1 =0 X 20 =1 =0 - -49-
3 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 0.7000 0.2134 0.2196 0.7166 0.8160 0.4302 0.2546 0.5000 0.40982 0.41410 0.45076 0.98319 0.49523 0.43573 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 10.00 1.00 127.00 12.00 0.8849 0.6687 0.8413 2.5545 0.2012 8.4372 1.7759 0.827613 0.30368 0.36546 2.63617 0.40101 10.98221 1.48519 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 150.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.1184 0.3607 0.4537 29.6895 0.7131 0.3781 0.3171 0.32316 0.48033 0.49798 24.08641 0.45243 0.48505 0.46548 P Ln B BiX i 1 1 n i = 0 P i i= 1 1 P i =1 =0 X i i B i i B 0 4 4 1% 4 Wald Exp B 0.487 ** 0.198 6.022 0.014 1.627 0.340 0.211 2.597 0.107 1.405 0.040 0.154 0.069 0.793 1.041-0.036 0.052 0.484 0.487 0.965 0.320 * 0.168 3.639 0.056 1.377-50-
4 0.201 0.195 1.064 0.302 1.223-0.039 0.126 0.097 0.755 0.961-0.425 0.344 1.527 0.217 0.654 0.053 0.193 0.075 0.784 1.054 0.105 *** 0.032 11.010 0.001 1.111 0.435 ** 0.199 4.789 0.029 1.545 0.018 ** 0.009 4.278 0.039 1.018-0.184 *** 0.049 13.878 0.000 0.832 0.807 *** 0.256 9.932 0.002 2.241 0.578 *** 0.187 9.553 0.002 1.783 0.870 *** 0.185 22.218 0.000 2.388-0.029 0.029 0.964 0.326 0.972 1.082 *** 0.150 52.380 0.000 2.952 0.396 * 0.161 6.018 0.014 1.486 0.169 0.163 1.082 0.298 1.184-0.689 0.522 1.742 0.187 0.502 χ 2 178.964-2 -2LL 1312.713 20 0.000 *** ** * 1% 5% 10% 4-51-
四 实 证 结 果 分 析 及 启 示 1. 2. 15.8% 19.2% 3. 4. 5. 2006 b 6. -52-
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