6 1053 1981 2030 VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity 2001 2030 1981 2000 1 1. 1 6 16 94% 88% 8 28-1 Fig. 1 1 Main paddy rice cropping regions in China

26 6 Vol. 26 No. 6 2011 6 JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES Jun. 2011 1 2 3 1* 1 1 4 5 1 1. 100101 2. 3. 100081 4. 100097 5. 100086 PRECIS B2 VIC 2001 2030 1981 2000 28-48. 5 ~ 269. 1 mm - 6. 1%~ 29. 6% VIC P467 S162. 5 A 1000-3037 2011 06-1052 - 13 1 75% ~ 80% 1 2 3 22% 21% 16% 4 50 ~ 100 a 5 23 ~ 145 mm 6 2011 2040 3% ~ 5% 7%~ 10% 7 2009-12- 10 2011-03- 01 KZCX2 - YW - 305 2007BAC03A02-05 2007BAC03A07 1980- E-mail max@ ami. ac. cn * 1961- E-mail wush@ igsnrr. ac. cn 1. 2010. 2009 22-25.

6 1053 1981 2030 VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity 2001 2030 1981 2000 1 1. 1 6 16 94% 88% 8 28-1 Fig. 1 1 Main paddy rice cropping regions in China

1054 26 2 700 m 160 m 180 ~ 365 d 10 C 2 900 ~ 9 300 C 700 ~ 1 800 h 500 ~ 2 000 mm 9 1. 2 VIC 1 km DEM 1981 2000 Maryland 1 km 10 1 100 VIC 2 MATLAB 11 1981 2030 B2 1981 2000 271 PREC TMAX TMIN WIND PRECIS IPCC SRES 1981 2030 12-14 1. 3 VIC 1. 3. 1 VIC 1992 Wood Lettenmaier Liang Nijssen 15-19 - - - 15-17 VIC 11 50 km 50 km 20 VIC - 3L VIC 2 604 1980 1990 21 1981 2030 1981 2000 271 VIC 50 km 50 km VIC 0. 5 0. 5 ArcGIS NEAR 0. 5 0. 5 2 http www. hydro. washington. edu /Lettenmaier /Models /VIC /VIChome. html

6 1055 1. 3. 2 Nash-Sutcliffe E ns E ns = 1 - n Q 0 - Q p 2 i = 1 n i = 1 Q 0 - Q avg 2 1 Q 0 Q p Q avg n Q 0 = Q p E ns = 1 E ns 22 Fig. 2 2 VIC model calibrated watersheds in the main paddy rice cropping regions in China 5 28 B Ds Ds max n Ws 2 3 d2 d3 16 2 1981 1982 1983 1985 5 a 1 2 041 610. 3 km 2 3 227 352. 7 km 2 63. 2%

1056 26 Table 1 1 Results of calibrated parameters for different watersheds /km 2 /km 2 159 463. 4 0. 80 161 875. 5 0. 73 127 576. 5 0. 87 0. 07 32 952. 7 0. 87 151 193. 4 0. 60 77 200. 2 0. 32 164 632. 0 0. 29 340 752. 6 0. 51 133 272. 3 0. 92 30 780. 0 0. 82 155 777. 5 0. 79 47 656. 5 0. 79 260 206. 7 0. 91 77 482. 6 0. 51 86 254. 4 0. 52 34 534. 3 0. 56 2 041 610. 3 0. 68 1981 1982 1981 1985 1 1 0. 29 ~ 0. 92 0. 68 2 0. 8 0. 32 23 VIC - 3L VIC 1981 1982 1983 1. 3. 3 B2 1981 2000 1981 2000 B2 Re = P t - O t O t 100% 2 Re P t B2 O t 1981 2000 Re Re Re = 0 1981 2000 B2 3 1981 2000-0. 65~ 1. 20 0. 132 13. 2% 10% 51. 8% 20% 72. 9% 30% 89. 6% 4

6 1057 Fig. 3 3 a B2 b Runoff depth based on observed climate data a and based on B2 scenario data b

1058 26 4 Fig. 4 1980 2000 B2 Relative runoff depth differences calculated between observed and B2 scenario data 1981 1982 VIC 1983 1993 1994 1996 1997 2000 1981 2000 20 a 9. 3% 5 5 1980 2000 B2 Fig. 5 Relative runoff depth differences calculated between observed and B2 scenario data during 1980 to 2000 VIC 0. 29 ~ 0. 92 0. 68 B2 13. 2% 9. 3% B2

6 1059 2 2. 1 2001 2030 B2 2001 2030 6 6 2001 2030 B2 Fig. 6 Average annual runoff based on B2 scenario during 2001-2030 2001 2030 931 ~ 1 529 mm 1 132 mm 2. 2 B2 1981 2000 2001 2030 7 1981 2030 50 a B2 1981 2000 2001 2030 8 2 B2 2001 2030 1981 2000 28-48. 5 ~ 269. 1 mm - 6. 1% ~ 29. 6. 1% + 190. 522 mm + 15. 0% + 269. 100 mm + 21. 3% + 236. 889 mm + 16. 1% + 251. 600 mm

1060 26 7 1981 2030 Fig. 7 General water resource in the main paddy rice cropping region in China during 1981-2030 + 18. 8% + 254. 007 mm + 21. 8% + 242. 846 mm + 16. 2% - 14. 053 mm - 1. 0% - 14. 967 mm - 1. 7% - 12. 400 mm - 2. 0% - 11. 930 mm - 1. 7% - 0. 979 mm - 0. 1% 3 B2 2011 2040 1961 1990 23 ~ 145 mm 2%~ 10% 7 2011 2040 3%~ 5% 7%~ 10%

6 1061 30 a Fig. 8 8 Impact of climate change on water resource increase / decrease in the main paddy rice cropping regions in China during 1981-2030 Table 2 2 Impact of climate change on water resources in main paddy rice cropping regions /mm /% /mm /% - 12. 400-2. 0 190. 522 15. 0 125. 000 29. 6 122. 510 10. 2 56. 923 10. 0 109. 433 11. 5 70. 053 8. 7 104. 271 7. 0-0. 979-0. 1 269. 100 21. 3-11. 930-1. 7 236. 889 16. 1-48. 591-6. 1 63. 754 5. 5 0. 158 0. 001 251. 600 18. 8 10. 800 1. 4 254. 007 21. 8 54. 000 5. 0 169. 588 12. 4 19. 047 2. 3-14. 967-1. 7 60. 062 5. 4-14. 053-1. 0 32. 378 3. 0 84. 375 5. 3 25. 308 2. 6 242. 846 16. 2

1062 26 3 1 B2 1981 2030 50 a 1981 2000 850 ~ 1 220 mm 1 051 mm 2001 2030 931 ~ 1 529 mm 1 132 mm 2 2001 2030 1981 2000 28-48. 5 ~ 269. 1 mm - 6. 1% ~ 29. 6% 3 References 1 IPCC. 2007 M. 2007 31-33. IPCC. Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report. 2007 31-33. 2. J. 2006 4 26-27. LIN Yan-zhi FU Li-dong CHEN Li-yan et al. Progress on aftereffect of rice subjected to water stress. Reclamation and Rice 2006 4 26-27. 3. M. 2007 195-201. Committee of China s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. China s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Beijing Science Press 2007 195-201. 4. J. 2003 14 1 17-25. ZHOU Yi-hui ZENG Guang-ping TANG Lin et al. Weather and climate characteristics during summer in Southern China. Journal of Applied Meteorology 2003 14 Supp 1 17-25. 5. M. 2007 17-18. National Development and Reform Commission. China s Address Climate Change Programme. 2007 17-18. 6. J. 2005 16 2 11-17. WANG Guo-qing ZHANG Jian-yun ZHANG Si-long. Review on venerability and impact of water resource of China under the global climate change. Journal of Water Resource and Engineering 2005 16 2 11-17. 7. M. 2007 228-233. REN Guo-yu. Climate Change and China s Water Resource. Beijing China Meteorological Press 2007 228-233. 8. J. 2007 12 5 659-666. YAO Feng-mei ZHANG Jia-hua SUN Bai-ni et al. Simulation and analysis on climate change impact of yield of rice in southern China. Climate and Environmental Research 2007 12 5 659-666. 9. M. 1989 5-17. China National Rice Research Institute. China s Rice Planting Zoning. Hangzhou Zhejiang Science and Technology Press 1989 5-17. 10. VIC J. 2005 10 22-28. HU Cai-hong GUO Sheng-lian PENG Ding-zhi et al. VIC model into runoff simulation. Yellow River 2005 10 22-28.

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1064 26 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Main Paddy Rice Cropping Regions in China MA Xin 1 2 3 WU Shao-hong 1 DAI Er-fu 1 ZHANG Xue-yan 1 4 KANG Xiang-wu 5 PAN Tao 1 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China 2. Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development CAAC Beijing 100081 China 3. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment and Climate Change Ministry of Agriculture Beijing 100081 China 4. State Medicine Exam Center Beijing 100097 China 5. China Institute of Science and Technology Information MOST Beijing 100086 China Abstract Based on both observed climate data and B2 climate scenario s data from PRECIS the impact of climate change on water resources was simulated by using the VIC model. Comparison of runoff-depth between the average of 2001-2030 B2 near term and the average of 1981-2000 B2 baseline period shows that water resources would increase generally in the main paddy rice cropping regions with a distribution trend of higher in south-east and lower in north-west. Calculated based on 28 second class watersheds in China s main paddy rice cropping regions water resources increased from - 48. 5 mm to 269. 1 mm as such relative variation from - 6. 1% to 29. 6%. Water resources would increase in the coastal areas of Qiantangjiang Wajiang Minjiang Hanjiang Mindong Yuedong Dongjiang and the watersheds of Taiwan s and would decrease in coastal areas of west Guangdong Guangxi and Hainan watersheds as well as in watersheds of Yuanjiang - Red River mainstream of the upper reaches of Huanghe River Jialingjiang mainstream of Huaihe River. But the absolute decrease would not be much. Key words climate change impact paddy rice water resources main cropping regions in China