ISSN 1019-2441 1694 http://www.cepd.gov.tw( ) 981210 ( ) (1) WTO (2) WTO (3) (4) (5)
2 1694 Abstract Barack Obama Copenhagen 2020 2005 17% Obama 2010 2010 2.4% WB Robert Zoellick WB 15 2008 10 The US president Barack Obama will go to Copenhagen for global summit on climate change and will offer to reduce the US s greenhouse gas emissions by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020. Although the president will not formally be able to commit to the target because Congress will not have mandated it, he hopes that his pledge will help propel forward efforts to secure a new international climate change agreement. And he hopes to lay the foundation for a new, sustainable and prosperous clean energy future. The UN s official said that Asia is in danger of reverting to an unsustainable reliance on exports for economic growth. There are worrisome signs that many Asian countries ignore the old growth model with all their imbalances is unsustainable. Those countries all concerned about how quickly would the western economies recover, how quickly could they go back to those export markets. The UN s economists warned that there is a possible hard landing for the US dollar, and although the world economy is expected to return to modest growth in 2010, it still remains fragile. Every government made bold stimulus policies for having averted a new great depression but it was too early to adopt exit strategy and return to normal conditions. Global economic growth is expected to reach mild 2.4% in 2010, but the recovery is uneven and the sustainability remains fragile. Robert Zoellick, the World Bank (WB) president said that the WB will launch a trust fund to boost agriculture in poor countries with an initial US$1.5 billion dollars, and warned of the risk of another food price crisis. Crop shortages in India and the Philippines, combined with increasing speculation in commodity markets by investment funds have increased the risk that food prices could spike. Food prices have been slow to fall from 2008 record highs, and as nations grapple with the global economic downturn, more than 1 billion people are now chronically hungry.
1694 3 5 1. 17 2010 OPEC 2009 Obama 11OPEC 5. 37 2009/10 2. 21 2009 1,350 2009 3. 30 6. 42 15 OECDEIB ADB 4. 33 450
4 1694 10. 57 7. 45 2010 11 10 2014 8 ECB 8. 48 14 10 10 24 9. 52 11 66 67 68
1694 5 / WTO
6 1694 1. GDP 1970 GDP 1981 9,065 GDP 50.0% 42.9%1993 3.69 60.0%2001 6.96 70%2002 GDP 70%73% 2008 9.05 GDP 73% 1 - - 55% 60% 2004 58% 20052007
1694 7 2008 58% 2008 58.0% 29.3% 12.5%( ) 11.4% 10.2% 10.0% 6.8% 5.9% 5.7% 5.3% 1.6% 1.2% - - ( ) - 2. 20052008 5.3% 7.8% 3.1% 2008 3.0% 684.2 8.2% 338.7 1.6% 345.5 2008 2006 7.9%2007 6.0% 2008 8.4% 11.9% 1.6% 10.1% 5.9% - 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 4.6% 27.5% 17.5% - -
8 1694 3. GDP GDP 199243.5% 2001 45.2% 2008 48.6% GDP 199238.2% 2001 39.7%2008 40.1% 1992 9,357 3.7 2001 4.44 2008 1.7 12.05 74% 72%30% - 100% 61% 55% 41% 48% 1992 2008 8,045 1.13 1.94 65% 1.26 35% 30% 1.98% 1.68% 1.38% 1% 217 120 78 64-57 46 36-33 - 22-21 14 6 5 121-13 - 3 4. 2008 3,044.5 2007 21.3% 1,465 2007 20.4% 2007 2008 1,580 2007
1694 9 22.2% 2007 2008 2007 2007 30.9% 2008 21.3% 2007 33.1% 2008 20.4% 2007 28.8% 2008 22.2% 2008 115.5 200776 39.5 60% 1997 119.1 113.6 2.5 97.5 59.7 46.9 46.1 30.9 28.9 2008 1,657.5 2007 17% 7.6% 2007 56.4% 2008 54.4% 2008 181.4 2007 56.6% 8.8% 1. (1). (i) - (ii) - (2). (i) CPC84 (ii) (3). (i) (ii)
10 1694 (4). (i) (ii) (5). (i) (ii) (6). (i) (ii) 2. (1). (i) (ii) (2). (i) (ii) (3). (i) (ii) (4). (i) (ii) 3. (i) (ii) CPC518
1694 11 4. (i) (ii) 5. (i) (ii) 6. (i) (ii) 7. (i) (ii) (a) (b) (c) (d) 8. (i) (ii) 9. (i) (ii)
12 1694 10. (i) 4 (ii) 3 11. (i) (ii) 12. (i)wto (ii) 1.
1694 13 2. / 50% 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
14 1694 12. 1. (1) 2001 315 33% 2008 1,054 27% 70% 29% 62% 30% 13% (2) 2001 27.8 36% 2008 98.4 19522008 756 65% 0.5% 88.1% 11.4% 7.3% 1.3%37.0%61.7% 59.2% 2008 476.6 (3) 2001 331 6% 2008 467 5.4% 93.8% 16.5% 6.2% 2008 5,142 2008 215
1694 15 2. 2009630 WTO 113 22% (1) (i) ( )(ii) (iii) (iv) ( )(2) (3) 51 35 (4) (5) (6) 20091116 3. (1) WTO (2) WTO (3)
16 1694 (4) (5) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 1 200911 95 2008 GDP 68.9%
1694 17 1. 70% 59% 100 Obama Barack Obama 12 Copenhagen 2020 2005 17% Obama
18 1694 Obama Copenhagen Copenhagen 65 Gordon Brown Angela Merkel Obama Obama Copenhagen Obama 2020 17% 20096 2020 2005 17% 20% Obama 2050 80% 2025 2005 30% 2030 42% 12 Copenhagen Obama 40% 200911 25 UAE 2009 1129 UAE Dubai World 20105
1694 19 UAE UAE UAE UAE 2008 Nakheel 800 UAE UAE Nakheel 12 40 590 UAE Marios Marathefits EFG-Hermes Raj Madha 200911 29 Ajay Chhibber Chhibber 5.4% Chhibber
20 1694 Chhibber Dubai W 800 W 2009122 WTO 2001 Jorge Taiana WTO 2010 WTO Rachid Mohamed
1694 21 26 2008 70% 2009123 2. 20091123 1241 / 87.37 2.03% / 0.6634 1.07% / 0.6023 0.58% / 0.9999 1.34% 1 112327 1130 124 2-1 Fed Beige Book 10 11 11 10% 1124 2009 2.8% 3.5% 2.9% 11 1.1 10 11.1 12.5 10 CPI 2.2% 10 14 0.9%9 1.3% 11 3 11 88.810 82.8 8 11 10 1.79 1.56 10CPI 0.1% 11CPI 0.6%10 PPI 0.2% 6.7%10 0.37 7.43% 10 7 69.6% 70.7% 10 9.8%ECB Jean-Claude
22 1694 2-1 (1) (2)(1)(2) % 11/3012/4 11/2311/27 + - 87.37 87.98-0.6866 0.6634 0.6663-0.4471 0.6023 0.6023-0.0091 0.9999 1.0057-0.5756 1.0489 1.0555-0.6291 1.0827 1.0854-0.2521 1.3824 1.3835-0.0825 7.7500 7.7497 +0.0046 1156.89 1157.18-0.0247 32.145 32.238-0.2880 CEIC 2009126 2-2 04 1.315 0.516 0.752 1.157 1.226 1.644 104.280 7.780 1,060.00 32.350 05 1.362 0.582 0.844 1.315 1.166 1.663 117.880 7.753 1,010.00 32.800 06 1.268 0.511 0.758 1.220 1.165 1.534 119.020 7.777 930.00 32.590 07 1.139 0.504 0.685 1.133 0.988 1.436 111.710 7.798 935.80 32.430 08 1.432 0.684 0.718 1.067 1.224 1.438 90.790 7.750 1,262.00 32.760 08-081.168 0.550 0.682 1.102 1.063 1.417 108.690 7.804 1,089.00 31.550 08-091.265 0.562 0.710 1.119 1.060 1.433 105.940 7.766 1,206.30 32.230 08-101.521 0.619 0.789 1.167 1.216 1.484 98.280 7.750 1,277.50 32.970 08-111.528 0.652 0.788 1.217 1.236 1.508 95.460 7.750 1,468.00 33.290 08-121.432 0.684 0.718 1.067 1.224 1.438 90.790 7.750 1,262.00 32.760 09-011.567 0.694 0.781 1.161 1.237 1.511 89.830 7.754 1,380.00 33.700 09-021.558 0.700 0.790 1.167 1.271 1.546 97.740 7.755 1,532.80 35.000 09-031.444 0.699 0.754 1.140 1.261 1.521 99.150 7.750 1,372.30 33.870 09-041.367 0.676 0.755 1.140 1.194 1.477 98.760 7.750 1,277.00 33.060 09-051.326 0.659 0.740 1.111 1.176 1.469 95.184 7.751 1,252.81 32.921 09-061.241 0.608 0.713 1.087 1.163 1.448 96.420 7.750 1,273.50 32.770 09-071.199 0.598 0.700 1.067 1.079 1.439 94.540 7.750 1,222.20 32.800 09-081.185 0.613 0.697 1.057 1.097 1.441 92.820 7.751 1,248.00 32.910 09-091.133 0.625 0.684 1.038 1.072 1.409 89.490 7.750 1,175.00 32.030 09-101.106 0.607 0.678 1.024 1.077 1.398 90.500 7.750 1,182.00 32.610 09-111.100 0.606 0.668 1.006 1.062 1.387 86.870 7.750 1,173.40 32.230 09-1127 1.100 0.606 0.668 1.006 1.062 1.387 86.870 7.750 1,173.40 32.230 09-1204 1.093 0.606 0.676 1.014 1.052 1.387 89.870 7.750 1,151.00 32.160 CEIC
1694 23 Trichet 2-3 3 1216 12 7 12 12 2010 7 Trichet 0.35% 98 5.066 6.258 0.539 3.239 3.239 99 6.001 6.078 0.194 3.339 3.339 02 1.400 4.023 0.064 2.924 0.647 03 1.152 4.038 0.061 2.123 0.260 04 2.564 4.885 0.053 2.153 0.717 05 4.536 4.639 0.066 2.487 1.010 06 5.360 5.320 0.568 3.723 2.103 07 4.703 5.994 0.895 4.679 2.757 08 1.425 2.770 0.833 2.894 0.662 08-08 2.811 5.753 0.881 4.959 2.745 08-09 4.053 6.300 1.015 5.274 2.955 08-10 3.026 5.841 0.941 4.769 2.718 08-11 2.217 3.910 0.935 3.851 1.255 08-12 1.425 2.770 0.833 2.894 0.662 09-01 1.170 2.167 0.675 2.104 0.528 09-02 1.264 2.049 0.638 1.828 0.495 09-03 1.192 1.649 0.603 1.506 0.403 09-04 1.010 1.450 0.557 1.380 0.397 09-05 0.656 1.278 0.519 1.269 0.397 09-06 0.595 1.186 0.473 1.095 0.390 09-07 0.479 0.888 0.413 0.862 0.360 09-08 0.348 0.690 0.391 0.799 0.317 09-09 0.287 0.542 0.345 0.707 0.288 09-10 0.281 0.591 0.326 0.672 0.262 09-11 0.256 0.614 0.301 0.680 0.250 09-1127 0.256 0.614 0.301 0.680 0.250 09-1204 0.257 0.608 0.284 0.681 0.253 CEIC 201062 2008 2009 GDP 0.4% 4.75% 20094 3.5% 2010 1%1.5% 2011 2012 3.5% 1.5% 2% King
24 1694 23 0.5% Nationwide Building Society 11 1 73 IMF 10 IMF 918 403.3 202 201.3 20091120 1,140.0 30% 45% 1,140.001,212.50 124 1,190.25 50.25 20091123 126 10 121 0.1% 10 115 7 4
1694 25 3 James McCormack 2009 1.3%2010 0.6% 200911 25 123 80 20 State Bank of Vietnam1125 5.4% 17,034 17,961 5% 3% 12 8% Societe Generale Patrick Bennett 2009 220 165 11 4.4% Standard Chartered Bank 20091126-27 1117 23 78.98 0.8% 10,388.90 500 14.49 1.3% 1,105.98 55.91 2.6% 2,194.35
26 1694 2-4 DAX 225 100 20091130 10,344.84 9,345.55 21,821.50 5,190.70 5,625.95 20091201 10,471.58 9,572.20 22,113.15 5,312.20 5,776.61 20091202 10,452.68 9,608.94 22,289.57 5,327.40 5,781.68 20091203 10,366.15 9,977.67 22,553.87 5,313.00 5,770.35 20091204 10,388.90 10,022.59 22,498.15 5,322.40 5,817.65 (1) 10,309.92 9,081.52 21,134.50 5,245.70 5,685.61 (20091127) (2)(+)(-) +78.98 +941.07 +1,363.65 +76.70 +132.04 (3) (%) +0.8 +10.4 +6.5 +1.5 +2.3 2009121 2009125 / %/ +76.70/+1.5%/5,322.40 DAX +132.04 /+2.3%/5,817.65 +125.17 /+3.4%/3,846.62 225 +941.07/+10.4%/10,022.59 11ISM 53.6 4 50 3.7% 1011 11 1.1 200712 10.2% 10% 10 3.7% ICSC 12 2.6% 2 15 193 4 1.7% Fed
1694 27 20106 43% 55% NBER 1930 3.9% 15 193 2.4% 2.3% Altera Kindle 1.3% 11 ING 2010 11 ISM 4 11 55.7 20044 11 53.7 51.2 50 7,000 10 0.5% 3 11 46.2 47.0 Hometrack 11 1.2% 9.4% 9.5% 9.9% 0.4% 11ISM 11GfK -17 20091 10 17 9.8%10 0.1%
28 1694 2-1 2006/01/032009/12/04 14500 12500 10500 8500 6500 06/0106/04 06/07 06/10 07/0107/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 08/0708/10 09/0109/04 09/07 09/10 225 2006/01/042009/12/04 19000 16000 13000 10000 7000 06/01 06/04 06/07 06/10 07/01 07/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 08/07 08/10 09/01 09/04 09/07 09/10 2006/01/032009/12/04 32000 26500 21000 15500 10000 06/0106/04 06/07 06/10 07/0107/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 08/07 08/10 09/0109/04 09/07 09/10 100 2006/01/032009/12/04 7000 6100 5200 4300 3400 06/0106/04 06/07 06/10 07/0107/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 08/07 08/10 09/0109/04 09/07 09/10 DAX 2006/01/022009/12/04 8300 7100 5900 4700 3500 06/0106/04 06/07 06/10 07/0107/04 07/07 07/10 08/01 08/04 08/07 08/10 09/0109/04 09/07 09/10 DRI Asia Database
1694 29 17 225 11 21% 14.5% 9.4% 2009 1124 2010 6.3% 8.8%6.5% 5.0% 411.67 2.9% 3.2% 2010 4.6% 11 18.8% 13 +100.26/+6.6%/1,624.76 1 3.75% 11 51.2 2.9% ASX +124.0/+2.7%/4,721.20 10 6.6% 11 50 GDP 7.9% 6.3% 2010 8%9% BSE30 +469.53/+2.8%/17,101.54
30 1694 / %/ +1,363.65/+6.5%/22,498.15 +23.51 /+3.5%/701.58 +28.79/+1.0%/2,791.01-0.41/-0.03%/1,270.20 +118.02/+4.9%/2,511.54 +17.02/+0.6%/3,061.99 2009128 3. 15 WB Robert Zoellick WB 15 2008 2008 10 200 30 Zoellick 200 WB G209 Zoellick WB 200 WB WFP Josette Sheeran 2008 Sheeran WFP 72 100 2009 64 37 WFP 6 10 2,000
1694 31 2009 1124 OECDEIB OECD EIB OECD Angel GurriaEIB Philippe Maystadty 1126 Gurria EIB OECD Maystadty EIB OECD OECDEIB 1. 2. 3. SMEs PPPs 4. 5. OECDEIB EIB OECD OECD EIB OECD OECD 20091126 2010 2010 2.4%
32 1694 W double-dip Rob Vos 2010 GDP 4.1% 6.4% G20 2009122 ADB ADB UNFCCC ADB IMF UNFCCC Copenhagen 2012
1694 33 ADB 2009122 4. 20091123 27 1120 1130 124 11 20088 EIA 1127 11 2009124 1 1127 76.05 75.47 0.8% 20091241 0.4% 77.52 1130 124 OPEC Brent WTI Fateh 77.13 77.36 77.39 78.72 1123 27 1.77%1.16%1.34%2.21% 4-1 2009127 75
34 1694 4-1 11/23-11/27 2 11/30-12/4 1 / % 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 OPEC7 75.79 77.13 1.77 Brent 76.47 77.36 1.16 WTI 76.37 77.39 1.34 Fateh 77.02 78.72 2.21 Petroleum IntelligenceWeekly 2009127 4-1 2009/6/52009/12/4 6/5 6/19 7/3 7/17 7/31 8/14 8/28 9/11 9/25 10/9 10/23 11/6 11/20 12/4 EnergyInformationAdministrationU.S.Dept.ofEnergy. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/crude1.xls 20091123 124 (1) (2) 2.8% 3.5% (3) 10 6.2% 43 20089 (4) 1121 50.1 46.6 20089 (5) EIA 1120 100 3.38 120 (6) 590 Dubai World (7) 11
1694 35 10 54.2 56.1 20088 (8) (9) (10) EIA (11) Institute for Supply Management 11 10 50.6 48.7 (12) 11 1.1 200712 20091123 2009124 2010 2010 75.40 4 65.95 Thorsten Fischer 2009 73.70 69.73 2009 60.80 10 60.60 2009 15 2010 130 8,590 20091125 OPEC OPEC 1222 OPEC
36 1694 70 80 OPEC 2009 135% 9 65 2009 80 2009 85 2010 95 IEA11 10 2009 2020 100 2030 115 OPEC IMF Kahn 10.2% 2010 2.8% 3.5% 2.9% EIA 5 2,120.5 4.5% 11OPEC 3 89% 60% OPEC12 20091127 2009 2009 Platts 2009 40 2009 6.4% 1970 530 2004 10 500 600
1694 37 Platts 2009 Bakken Kansas City Star2009 1128 11OPEC 11OPEC 2009 OPEC 11OPEC 11 2,652 10 2,643 11OPEC 10 62% 60% 2008 9 OPEC 420 2009 OPEC 12 11 2,891 200812 PFC Energy Paul Tossetti OPEC 20091130 5. 1130 124 CRB DJ-AIG Reuters 276.79136.332,280.97 1123 27 0.77%0.65%0.88% 5-1 124 1127 122 1,212.5 4 1127 2.0%
38 1694 124 1127 LME 1.4 124 11 27 3 3 11 (1) 276.79 136.33 2,280.97 11/30-12/04 27 2,016 (2) 274.68 135.45 2,260.96 6.4%124 11/23-11/27 (1)(2) % 0.77 2,146 3 0.65 0.88 1.CRB= DJ-AIG= 15 Reuters= 2.7%2.1126 LME 5-2 LME 2009/11/272009/12/4 124 11 27 4 5-1 CRB DJ-AIG Reuters (1967=100) (1991=100) (9/18/1931=100) 2006 307.26 166.51 2,228.64 2007 358.71 184.96 2,592.90 2008 229.54 117.24 1,746.52 200901 220.37 110.93 1,913.30 02 211.57 105.99 1,844.78 03 220.40 109.78 1,897.52 04 222.39 110.57 2,014.55 05 253.05 124.93 2,144.61 06 249.96 122.54 2,093.50 07 257.45 126.48 2,114.57 08 253.68 125.72 2,182.31 09 259.39 127.69 2,150.25 10 270.38 131.86 2,243.25 11 277.40 136.49 2,268.06 20091123 274.95 135.27 2,268.17 1124 272.26 133.96 2,261.82 1125 278.41 137.24 2,259.91 1126 - - - 1127 273.09 135.32 2,253.95 1130 277.40 136.49 2,268.06 1201 279.34 137.58 2,276.77 1202 276.80 136.64 2,298.71 1203 276.55 136.13 2,281.68 1204 273.87 134.79 2,279.63 2009/11/272009/12/4 84,860 84,600-260 4,600,375 4,594,100-6,275 435,075 446,075 11,000 137,275 139,575 2,300 135,480 142,770 7,290 26,805 26,850 45 455,100 458,775 3,675 (LME)
1694 39 2009/10 5-4 2009128 Oil World 2010 200910 12 400 3,020 600 2009 2010 4,800 200912 2010 20091124 2009 2009 1,550 2009 90 175 2009 2009 4.3 2009 55% 6 1,550 1,280 20091125
40 1694 5-3 / / 04 435.60 6.82 859.0 184.0 1,964.0 3,279.5 15,205.0 1,056.0 7,765.0 1,270.0 05 513.00 8.83 964.0 253.0 2,285.0 4,584.5 13,380.0 1,100.0 6,600.0 1,915.0 06 635.70 12.90 1,117.0 324.0 2,850.0 6,290.0 34,205.0 1,775.0 11,900.0 4,331.0 07 833.75 14.75 1,530.0 364.0 2,350.5 6,676.5 25,805.0 2,532.0 16,380.0 2,290.0 08 869.75 10.79 898.0 183.0 1,455.0 2,902.0 10,810.0 949.0 10,355.0 1,120.5 08-11 760.86 9.87 840.3 207.4 1,852.4 3,717.0 10,701.5 1,291.1 13,643.5 1,152.6 08-12 814.42 10.29 834.8 175.9 1,490.4 3,072.0 9,686.4 962.9 11,240.0 1,100.6 09-01 858.69 11.29 949.8 188.4 1,413.1 3,220.6 11,306.9 1,132.7 11,372.9 1,187.4 09-02 943.16 13.41 1,035.7 206.2 1,330.2 3,314.7 10,408.8 1,100.5 11,039.3 1,112.1 09-03 924.27 13.12 1,081.2 202.3 1,335.8 3,749.8 9,696.4 1,238.9 10,675.9 1,216.8 09-04 890.20 12.51 1,162.5 226.8 1,420.9 4,406.6 11,166.0 1,383.1 11,743.5 1,378.9 09-05 928.64 14.03 1,130.4 229.8 1,460.4 4,552.8 12,634.7 1,440.2 13,793.4 1,483.8 09-06 945.67 14.65 1,217.9 245.5 1,573.7 5,014.0 14,960.5 1,674.5 14,985.7 1,557.3 09-07 934.23 13.36 1,162.3 248.6 1,668.0 5,215.5 15,984.6 1,678.6 14,038.9 1,578.6 09-08 949.38 14.35 1,244.6 275.8 1,933.8 6,165.3 19,641.8 1,900.1 14,869.8 1,821.7 09-09 996.59 16.39 1,288.7 293.3 1,834.1 6,196.4 17,473.2 2,204.5 14,863.0 1,884.0 09-10 1,043.16 17.24 1,332.8 322.1 1,878.6 6,288.0 18,525.2 2,240.8 15,008.9 2,071.6 09-11 1,127.04 17.82 1,400.6 351.9 1,949.3 6,675.6 16,991.2 2,308.8 14,942.4 2,193.4 09-11271,166.50 17.98 1,426.0 358.0 1,957.0 6,755.0 16,125.0 2,289.0 14,825.0 2,198.0 09-12041,190.25 18.83 1,472.0 378.0 2,106.5 7,026.0 15,905.0 2,345.0 15,050.0 2,353.5 LBMA LPPM (LME) 5-4 Metricton lbs lb lb bushel bushel bushel 04 1,547 103.75 9.04 44.77 5.47 3.07 2.07 05 1,504 107.10 14.68 54.19 6.02 3.37 2.16 06 1,599 124.12 11.70 53.87 6.62 4.99 3.76 07 2,035 136.20 10.82 68.01 11.99 8.85 4.56 08 2,665 112.05 11.81 49.02 9.72 6.11 4.07 08-112,081 112.06 11.83 42.17 8.96 5.33 3.74 08-122,461 108.70 11.32 44.79 8.68 5.35 3.63 09-012,582 116.53 12.24 49.04 9.94 5.89 3.91 09-022,651 113.76 13.03 45.90 9.34 5.35 3.63 09-032,441 110.93 12.93 42.63 9.08 5.21 3.77 09-042,480 115.88 13.12 49.24 10.20 5.27 3.87 09-052,391 129.37 15.47 57.44 11.50 5.86 4.18 09-062,621 126.18 15.48 54.15 12.11 5.84 4.16 09-072,703 118.21 17.81 58.59 10.91 5.14 3.32 09-082,863 128.04 21.72 58.81 11.05 4.86 3.27 09-093,035 128.28 21.76 60.32 9.50 4.52 3.23 09-103,254 137.02 22.58 65.34 9.66 4.97 3.72 09-113,184 137.22 22.19 68.61 10.09 5.40 3.91 09-1127 3,232 137.95 22.20 69.74 10.53 5.49 3.97 09-1204 3,361 141.10 21.95 70.21 10.43 5.37 3.74 (CBOT) (NYBOT)
1694 41 2009/10 ISO 2010/11 ISO 2010/11 50 100 2008/09 2009/10 1,130 720 ISO 2009/11 2009/10 1,500 2,400 20091126 2009 ICAC 2009/10 13%1,070 ICAC 2009/10 2,220 2008/09 5% 2009/10 16%680 5%520 8%210 270 ICAC 2009/10 2,380 2% 70% 2009/10 6%700 180 15% 180 21%230 2009121 1,350 12 41% 1,350 Fed 2011 2010 2011 Fed
42 1694 12 7,530 7,755 2,050 2,305 2,160 2,565 18,780 17,140 2009124 2009 GFMS 2009 432 GFMS Philip Klapwijk GFMS 2009 432 422 83 53 Klapwijk 2009124 6. 122 1120 2008
1694 43 2009122 26 7,870 100 1130 Christina Romer Peter Fenn 100 Market Watch 11
44 1694 10 23 Dispatch Politics2009123 Ron Paul Pual 96 1913 1 4 96 Paul Paul Infowars.net2009123 450 123 Troubled Asset Relief Program, TARP 450 Bob Stickler 188 2008 1,825 AIG 25.4 Warrants
1694 45 1031 50 723 6 TARP TARP 67.9 29 Philly.com2009123 7. 11 11 ECB eurostat 11 0.6% 4 2008 11 12 ECB 2% Barclays Capital Kerri Maddock 201010 1.7% ECB ECB 1% 2010 ECB 2008 9 ECB 20091130 1010 10 10 20082 10 9.8%
46 1694 10 4% 1,560 1980 300 11 0.7 8.2% 8.1% 3 100 Goldman Sach Nick Kojucharov Angela Merkel 2010 2010 ECB 2009121 Merkel 2010 Merkel 100 2009 Commerzbank Deutsche Bank Mittelstand Merkel Wolfgang Schauble Rainer Bruderle Bruderle 2009122
1694 47 ECB ECB Jean-Claude Trichet ECB2010 Trichet ECB Trichet ECB 12 ECB 1% Trichet ECB ECB3 1%Trichet 16 1.5140 0.3%1.5080 Trichet ECB GFT Forex Boris Schlossberg Trichet ECB ING Carsten Brzeski ECB Trichet 6 2010 ECB 20104 2009124 EBRD Erik Berglof 90% 50%
48 1694 EBRD EBRD IMF EBRD Manfred Schepers 2009126 8. 1116 200 93 2,500 10 1.7 8,000 20103 230
1694 49 500 1119 3 11 300 2009 5% 10% 810% 12% 20091121 14 1127 84.82 1 14 9 抛 LIBOR 6
50 1694 11 1 90 80 20091128 10 10 121 11 11 1120
1694 51 1127 1 85 14 1130 121 2009122 24 123 2009 24 4 3 7.1 4,000 124 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 2009 3 1.7 6,000 8,000 20103 Eco Point 1,000 2009124
52 1694 9. 6.4% 1. 4 2. 3. 4. 5.
1694 53 20091123 20091126 2.5 2008128 2008116
54 1694 20091127 2008 20099 20 19 11 2009 19 102 116.8 1 17 G20 20091130
1694 55 2008 6.6 5 4.7 12 2008 20% 15%2009 37% 15% 2009 1130 200910 2.3 2 2006 26% 9 2005 38% 50% 90% 2 50% 300
56 1694 200910 9,100 60% 3.1 26% 1,600 111% 1.2 20% 1.59 85% 2009124 2009 315 2,500 2009 2007 20091125
1694 57 20091126 10. 2010 BOK 20072009 1126 2010 3.0±1% 20102012 2%4% 20072009 2.5%3.5% 0.5 ±1 3% 3 20091126 1127 2018 3,000 10 40 12% 80% 25 100 35
58 1694 LED 80% 5 1. 2. 3. 3 2018 (1) 10 3,000 40 (2) M&A (3) (4) R&D (5) 5 2015 1,800 (6) 2016 60 (7) 6 (8) 10 20 21 LCD 20091111
1694 59 10-1 19502009 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2009 19 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 85 88 43 26 11 12 12 20091130 20148 1130 46 2014 8 5 5 30% 40% 2014 1 200 3% 2014 1.3 6,500 12.5% 2009 10 338 400 9 10-1 3% 1948 27.4% 61 10 1971 10 20099 9 1950 2 10 9 22 2010 13% 4,100 21% 3,900 200
60 1694 2009 1130 0.2% 2020 16% 2020 16% 20091129 12
1694 61 3 40 1990 20 2009122 2009123 2009 0.8% 1.6%1.8% 1.5% 20090.8%1.8% 20091127
62 1694 Marasigan Marasigan 200910 18 87 9513 Marasigan 20091130 10 10 70% 85% 10 1.7% 2010 10%15% 18% 2009121 BOI BOI Atchaka Sibunruang Brible 2009 2010 2009
1694 63 20093 1,160 2012 1.4 GDP16% 2009 2009 V 25 10.2% 10 9.7% G7 20%G7 53% 200911 25 The Nation 20091130 2010 2010 2011 2009123
64 1694 200912 2 Bappenas Bambang Prijambodo 2006 2006 2006 5.5% 5.3% 2007 5.2% 6.3% 1997 2008 3.0% 6.12009 2009 2008 1.3% 2009 BKPM Gita Wirjawan 2009 150 1,500 20091110 10 10 1999 10 4%
1694 65 10 5 2009124 World Bank 2010 200910 12 200910 2009123 2009 20103 2009 2009 11 36% 30% 5% 1 2009 5.5% 2008 6.2% 2008 2008 20088 28% 2008 2010
66 1694 4 2009123 11. 200810 50% 260 UAEs 4,300 Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum 6 Burj Bubai Sheik Mohammed 7.5 1980 2002Mohammed 2004 Nakheel Palm Jebel Ali Mohammed 2006 Jumeirah Park 65.4 120 14 200 49 2007 2008 2008 2009124
1694 67 1. 2. -40-22 -4 14 32 700 1050 1400 1750 2100-5 15 35 55 75 95 650 800 950 1100 1250 1400-50 -30-10 10 30 50 300 480 660 840-1 1 3 5 7 9 9,800 10,000 10,200 10,400 10,600 10,800-40 -20 0 20 40 600 800 1000 1200 1400-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 1,200 1,350 1,500 1,650 1,800-50 -25 0 25 50 200 250 300 350 400 450-25 -10 5 20 35 50 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800
68 1694 1. 1995 1,133.4 1,040.1 5,752.1 7,493.7 4,431.1 3,360.4 5,238.0 4,642.7 1,250.6 1,351.2 1996 1,175.8 1,029.2 6,121.1 8,031.1 4,109.2 3,491.6 5,242.0 4,587.8 1,297.2 1,503.4 1997 1,241.7 1,149.6 6,783.6 8,767.9 4,209.6 3,387.5 5,124.3 4,456.2 1,361.6 1,446.2 1998 1,126.0 1,052.3 6,704.2 9,186.4 3,879.4 2,804.9 5,417.6 4,704.1 1,323.1 932.8 1999 1,237.3 1,112.0 6,839.6 10,317.8 4,193.5 3,112.4 5,388.7 4,700.0 1,436.9 1,197.5 2000 1,519.5 1,407.3 7,719.9 12,266.8 4,793.0 3,797.3 5,479.8 4,936.0 1,722.7 1,604.8 2001 1,263.1 1,079.7 7,187.1 11,486.1 4,032.4 3,492.0 5,689.5 4,839.1 1,504.4 1,411.0 2002 1,353.2 1,132.4 6,851.7 11,680.0 4,167.3 3,376.0 6,201.1 4,938.7 1,624.7 1,521.3 2003 1,506.0 1,280.1 7,158.5 12,648.6 4,718.2 3,833.0 7,593.5 6,107.9 1,938.2 1,788.3 2004 1,823.7 1,687.6 8,061.6 14,779.9 5,656.7 4,551.9 9,120.3 7,180.6 2,538.4 2,244.6 2005 1,984.3 1,826.2 8,923.4 16,831.9 5,948.6 5,158.1 9,718.0 7,756.1 2,844.2 2,612.4 2006 2,240.2 2,027.0 10,158.1 18,630.7 6,467.3 5,790.4 11,289.1 9,279.1 3,254.6 3,093.8 2007 2,466.8 2,192.5 11,383.9 19,693.8 7,142.1 6,221.3 13,327.1 10,631.1 3,714.9 3,568.5 2008 2,556.3 2,404.5 12,770.0 21,172.4 7,820.6 7,625.9 14,517.6 11,868.3 4,220.1 4,352.7 2008 12 136.3 117.7 891.9 1,423.5 529.0 564.2 928.5 826.4 271.2 265.8 2009 1 123.7 89.7 824.4 1,300.5 384.7 490.3 818.7 727.9 211.3 249.3 2 125.9 109.2 843.6 1,215.7 381.2 372.3 807.7 695.5 254.0 225.9 3 155.6 121.7 825.7 1,218.0 426.2 425.3 923.8 770.1 278.8 239.0 4 148.4 127.1 800.0 1,199.3 423.8 417.1 838.1 709.9 303.3 248.0 5 161.7 130.1 820.8 1,193.1 417.5 386.7 847.6 711.0 278.1 233.3 6 169.5 152.0 840.5 1,223.9 476.5 424.0 950.8 776.4 325.6 256.0 7 172.6 152.5 867.7 1,295.2 512.6 472.6 988.4 786.1 319.8 276.4 8 190.0 170.4 868.5 1,288.5 475.6 456.3 845.7 730.5 289.4 274.1 9 190.7 165.2 903.4 1,379.5 558.5 501.1 1,025.7 870.4 340.7 297.5 10 198.2 165.8 587.9 498.7 339.6 303.3 11 200.2 179.0 342.7 302.2 IMF IFS 2. 1995 903.1 858.3 1,828.2 850.1 327.1 1996 900.8 842.7 1,998.8 831.8 351.2 1997 835.0 699.5 2,207.9 775.9 204.1 1998 903.4 817.6 2,159.5 740.2 520.4 1999 1,062.0 715.2 2,880.8 610.4 740.5 2000 1,067.4 676.5 3,616.4 872.9 962.0 2001 1,222.1 686.5 4,019.6 821.5 1,028.2 2002 1,616.6 790.1 4,697.3 891.4 1,214.1 2003 2,066.3 859.4 6,735.3 968.5 1,553.5 2004 2,417.4 868.2 8,445.4 971.7 1,990.7 2005 2,532.9 651.3 8,469.0 1,016.7 2,103.9 2006 2,661.5 659.0 8,953.2 1,116.4 2,389.6 2007 2,703.1 705.7 9,733.7 1,362.4 2,622.2 2008 2,917.1 776.5 10,306.5 1,380.4 2,012.2 2008 12 2,917.1 776.5 10,306.5 1,380.4 2,012.2 2009 1 2,926.8 753.6 10,109.6 1,409.3 2,017.4 2 2,941.9 732.0 10,093.5 1,435.2 2,015.3 3 3,001.2 749.6 10,185.5 1,434.7 2,063.4 4 3,046.6 751.2 10,114.7 1,401.5 2,124.8 5 3,126.4 817.4 10,240.1 1,513.8 2,267.7 6 3,175.6 814.9 10,191.8 1,479.7 2,317.3 7 3,210.9 829.3 10,226.6 1,483.5 2,375.1 8 3,254.2 1,268.5 10,423.4 1,645.7 2,454.6 9 3,322.4 1,343.0 10,526.0 1,710.1 2,542.5 10 3,412.2 1,346.9 10,567.7 1,769.8 2,641.9 11 3,471.9 1,371.3 10,737.1 2,708.9 IMF IFS