2010 1 : 3 George J. Gilboy : 2005,,,,, 2005, : 11 2005 ( ICP2005) 2005 2008 2, ( International Comparison Program) (purchasing power parities, PPP) PPP PPP ( ),PPP : ( 1 ) ( Hill,2007) GDP GDP PPP 1, :2005,1 ( GDP ) 3145 ;1 3146, 1 3170 PPP, 1, (http :ΠΠwww. worldbank. orgπdataπicpπ) 21 GDP PPP 3145 3146 3170 :ICP2005 Final Results,, PPP GDP 2, PPP PPP 2005 2005 GDP PPP, 3 George J. Gilboy, (MIT), :ggilboy @mit. edu ;,, :ninghua. zhong @gmail. com World Bank (2008a), World Bank (2007a), PPP GDP GDP GDP GDP, GDP GDP GDP GDP(,2008) 27
Gilboy : : PPP, PPP, 40 %(World Bank,2008b), GDP 40 %, 2 PPP 1986 (World Bank,2007b) ICP2005, PPP 11, 2005 GDP ( ) ICP2005 PPP PPP 5333 8819 2244 2341 3779 779 1000 (,2008),,,ICP2005 31 PPP, ( ) : 214 %, 2000 418 %, 116 %,,,, PPP GDP, PPP,,, PPP PPP, :, PPP(Ahya et al.,2006),2005, 1514 % 519 %, 21 %, 3 PPP 2005, GDP 10 %, ; 4 %,,,,, 10, GDP, 3 (2005 ),,,,, ( ), PPP 41 PPP 2005, 60 %, ( ), ( ), 1 2005 GDP( PPP ), 2215 %, 2 PPP GDP, 41674, 4091, 11 :,, (World Bank,2007b) Economics Focus, The Economist, 4 August, 2001 Datuk R. Chander (2002) 28
2010 1 2126 3 GDP (2005 ) PPP GDP GDP GDP GDP = 100 = 100 9170 % 2 45160 % 86 5106 % 5 23180 % 88 4126 % 5 23169 % 108 1176 % 12 9180 % 115 1 51 2,,PPP PPP,, GDP, PPP PPP 1978 (World Bank,2008b) :http :ΠΠddp2ext. worldbank. orgπextπ,world Development Indicators, World Bank 3 3 ICP2005 1997 2006 GDP, 7173 %,, 4164 %,, 29
Gilboy : : 11, : (1) ( ),,, (2),,,, ( ),,,, (World Bank, 2007b) 4, 2005, ( ) ;,,,,,,, (Chander,2002) 21,,PPP,PPP,PPP, ( ), PPP (World Bank,2007a) PPP,,, PPP : (1), ; (2),,PPP, PPP, PPP ( ) World Development Indicators, GDP PPP :2005, 3145 ;2006,3141 ;2007,3135 ( 111 1) 31 PPP 2005 GDP PPP, PPP PPP 5 PPP,, ( ) PPP, PPP, PPP 6186 PPP 8179, 2005,8117 http :ΠΠddp2ext. worldbank. orgπextπddpqqπmember. do? method = getmembers&userid = 1&queryId = 135 30
2010 1 4 5 11 (rule of thumb) GDP, 214, ( PPP ) GDP ( ) 2005 3 2008 7, ( ) 18 %,, 8127 1 6180 1,, 2138 1197, PPP GDP, PPP GDP, 21 GDP PPP PPP 2138, (2006 ) 11124 21717 217 (Tkacik,2007) PPP, 2006 7177, 8174 11124,, PPP (Preeg, 2008),,, (Council on Foreign Relations,2007), PPP PPP 6186,, PPP,,, Preeg(2008),PPP,, Castles(2009) PPP, OECD(2006) PPP, 9 %,PPP 31
Gilboy : :, PPP ( 2), PPP 31 PPP PPP PPP, : PPP,, PPP 4 World Bank PPP Level 2000 75 % Big Mac Index The Economist 2003 4 56 % Preeg MAPI 2002 9 40 % Yang and Bajeux2Besnainou Is the Chinese Currency Undervalued? 2003 11 27199 % Williamson ΠΠE Lecture 2003 10 25 % AndersonΠUBS The Complete RMB Handbook 2003 10 25 % Goldstein Testimony to Congress 2003 10 15 % 25 % O Neill and Wilson Goldman Sachs Rpt. 2003 9 10 % 15 % Bhalla Chinese Mercantilism :Currency Wars and How the East Was Lost 1998 7 10 % 15 % :http :ΠΠwww. ssci. orgπnewsπarchivesπdetails. aspx? ArticleID = 43 PPP 4 MSCI China s Currency is Undervalued : Second Report from the Fair Currency Alliance, PPP, 75 % The ICP 2003 2006 Handbook :,PPP 11 PPP GDP( PPP ) 6 GDP 2005, GDP( PPP ) 4091,,, 10 %,, 21 %,, GDP The ICP 2003 2006 Handbook, Chapter 1, 2007,, The ICP 2003 2006 Handbook, 2007 32
2010 1 : PPP GDP 6, 21 6 7 ( PPP ),, 7 2005, 1752 ; 6095, 315 ; 1455,, ( 100 ), 100, ;, 100,,, ( ) GDP,, 20 %, GDP 69 %,2005, GDP 4218 %, (Ahya,et al. 2006) 31 PPP, 8 2005,2005, GDP 10 %,, 18 %,, GDP 9 GDP,, GDP 130 %,, The ICP 2003 2006 Handbook, 2007 2005 ICP Preliminary Results, 2007 2005 ICP Preliminary Results, 2007 33
Gilboy : : 8 9 30 %,,, 80 %(2005, GDP 45 %) GDP,, GDP 41 (price level indexes, PLI) PPP ( ) GDP PLI,,,, PLI 10 PLI GDP 2005 PLI, GDP GDP,,,PLI GDP,PLI 1, PPP, PPP PLI,, PLI (World Bank,2008b) 11 GDP PLI, GDP PLI, PLI PLI 51 PPP, PPP : (1) (Hill,2007) 132 PPP, 0192 (2) GDP, 136 ( PLI) log ( GDP) log ( GDP) 2158 ( 383 ) 4185 ( 70014 ), PLI 0165 1135 (1) 12 2005 8 %,,, 1Π3 2005 ICP Preliminary Results, 2007 34
2010 1 10 :World Bank (2008b) 11 (2) 12 13 PPP,, PPP PPP :,,,,, ;,,, 13 12 7 113 5 2154,,, 2171, GDP, 14 131, - 0174 11 PPP 15,, PPP ( 3 ), 2005, GDP( PPP ) 10 % : 35
Gilboy : : 10 %,2005, 30 %, 2005, ( ) 5 % 2005, GDP( PPP ) 4 %, : 4 % 4 %, 15,, 2005 5 2005,, ICP2005 15 2005, GDP ( PPP ) 15 14 45 % ; 140 % ;, 20 %, 15 21 16 (PLI, 4 ) 2005, GDP PLI 5212 ( = 100), GDP PLI 4112 16,, GDP PLI, PLI PLI, PLI PLI,,, :,,, PLI 1 36
2010 1, 3, PPP,,,, PPP, 2005 (PPP), 16 GDP, GDP,,,, 2005,,,, GDP ;,,, 2005,,2008 : 2005 ICP, 25 6 Ahya Chetan, et al, 2006, India and China : New Tigers of Asia, Part II, http :ΠΠibef.orgΠdownloadΠindiaandchina. pdf., : PPP GDP,,, ICP,GDP PPP PPP, PPP, PPP,,,, ( ) ( ) ICP, PPP,,,, 37
Gilboy : : Council on Foreign Relations, 2007, Does China Pose a Military Threat? Council on Foreign Relations Online Debate, http :ΠΠwww. cfr.orgπ publicationπ12901πdoes - china - pose - a - military - threat. html. Chander Datuk R., 2002, The International Comparison Program and the System of National Accounts, http :ΠΠsiteresources. worldbank.orgπ ICPINTΠResourcesΠChander. doc. Castles Ian, 2009, Measuring China s Size and Power, East Asia Forum, 10 May, http :ΠΠwww. eastasiaforum.orgπ2009π05π10πmeasuring2 chinas2size2and2power2correctlyπ. Hill Peter, ed., 2007, Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures, 2005 International Comparison Program : Methodological Handbook, Chapter 1, http :ΠΠgo. worldbank.orgπmw520nnfk0. Tkacik John, 2007, A Chinese Military Superpower, http :ΠΠwww. heritage.orgπresearchπasiaandthepacificπwm1389. cfm. OECD, 2006, China Will Become World s Second Highest Investor in R&D by End of 2006, Finds OECD, announcement of OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2006, http :ΠΠwww. oecd. orgπdocumentπ26π0,2340,en - 2649-201185 - 37770522-1 - 1-1 - 1,00. html. Preeg Ernest H., 2008, India and China : An Advanced Technology Race and How the United States Should Respond, Washington, D. C. : Manufacturers AllianceΠMAPI and Center for Strategic and International Studies. World Bank, 2007a, 2005 International Comparison Program : Preliminary Results. World Bank, 2007b, 2005 ICP Regional Summary, East Asia and Pacific. World Bank, 2008a, Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures : 2005 International Comparison Program, http :ΠΠsiteresources. worldbank.orgπicpintπresourcesπicp2final. pdf. World Bank, 2008b, China Quarterly Update, http :ΠΠsiteresources. worldbank. orgπintchinaπresourcesπ31886221121421293578πcqu - jan - 08 - en. pdf. Measuring China s Economy : The Proper Use of PPP Methods George J. Gilboy and Zhong Ninghua (Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ; Department of Finance, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) Abstract: This article uses Purchasing Power Parities ( PPP) price data from the World Bank 2005 International Comparison Program to compare China with other major countries in terms of real economic size, economic structure, as well as development level. The article presents the proper usage of PPP prices and Market Exchange Rates, and points out several common misuses of PPPs in measuring and comparing China s relative international wealth and power. Using the PPP data, the article examines differences in real aggregate productivity, living standards, investment expenditures, and price level of major countries in the world. Furthermore, we have constructed a variable, the Relative Manufactured Goods Price, to characterize the industrialization level of one country. Employing sector2level PPP data, the article compares the total expenditure within various sectors by China and India in 2005, offering insights on both the utility and the limits of PPP analysis in comparing relative development level and comparative advantage in the two economies. Key Words :Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) ; International Comparison Program ; China s Economy JEL Classification : E100,O500 ( : ) ( : ) 38