2010 03 22 002377.SZ ()13.95 () 19.80 A () 27.00 () 107.00 13127.72 300 3302.63 5986.05 14380 13380 12380 11380 10380 9380 8380 7380 090323 090617 090907 091204 100304 300 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E () 0.346 0.368 0.439 0.465 0.571 0.665 N/A 6.43% 19.24% 41.72% 22.75% 16.50% EPS () N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A () 51.84 14.6 35.92 35.92 N/A N/A () 45.72 15.55 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A 23.38% 19.92% 21.55% 10.41% 11.51% 11.82% () 1.48 1.85 2.03 4.46 4.96 5.62 A() N/A N/A N/A 21.60 21.60 21.60 () 80.00 80.00 80.00 107.00 107.00 107.00 EPS 2010~2012 0.500.61 0.71 41.72%22.75%16.50% 2700 1.07 EPS 0.465 0.571 0.665 2010 30 PE 13.95 / : (8621)61038234 hegw@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 200011 此报告仅供国信证券股份有限公司使用 1
... 3... 3... 3... 4 SBS... 4... 6 10%... 7... 7... 8... 8... 8... 8... 9... 9... 9... 9 1... 3 2... 3 309 58%... 4 409 68%... 4 5... 4 6... 4 7... 5 8SBS... 5 9SBS... 5 10... 6 11... 6 12 10%... 7 13 10%... 7 14 40%... 7 15... 8 16... 9 2
1 8000 2700 10700 2 09 58%68 3
309 58% 409 68% 0.17% 1.53% 0.30% 0.98% 37.92% 28.13% 57.76% 67.54% 2005-2007 15% 5 6, 3.48%, 14.58%, 81.94% SBS SBS 4
SBSSBRPEEVA 7 ( 4cm 6cm 8cm ) SBS SBS SBS 8SBS 9SBS 1.41% 0.47% 4.30% 17.06% 76.76% 5
10 11 SBS SBS 6
10% 12 10% 13 10% 8 90% 50 60% 7 6 5 4 3 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 40 30 20 50% 40% 30% 20% 2 1 0 20% 10% 0% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 10% 0% WIND 14 40% 10000 120% 8000 100% 80% 6000 60% 4000 40% 2000 20% 0% 0-20% 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 WIND 68.80 35.64% 25 57 7
15 6070% 20052007 15% SBS Anti-Seperation SBS SBS 8
36 / 16 08 2010~2012 14.7%14.6%14.6% 2010~2012 1.6%1.6%1.6% 3.5%3.5%3.5% 2010~2012 7.619.091.05 24.0%19.4%15.8% 2010~2012 0.500.61 0.71 41.72%22.75%16.50% 2700 1.01 EPS 0.465 0.571 0.665 2010 30 PE 13.95 / 9
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 472 608 614 761 909 1,052 122 89 108 200 150 150 28.8% 1.0% 24.0% 19.4% 15.8% 137 189 229 227 271 314-390 -514-527 -650-776 -899 85 59 99 96 115 133 % 82.6% 84.6% 85.8% 85.3% 85.4% 85.4% 15 9 32 41 49 56 82 94 87 112 133 153 360 346 468 565 585 653 % 17.4% 15.4% 14.2% 14.7% 14.6% 14.6% % 77.0% 74.8% 81.3% 61.5% 56.2% 57.6% -5-4 -5-6 -8-9 0 0 0 1 0 0 % 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 104 99 89 324 418 433-7 -11-9 -12-14 -16 % 22.1% 21.3% 15.4% 35.3% 40.2% 38.2% % 1.6% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 4 17 17 26 36 46-21 -22-19 -27-32 -37 108 116 107 353 456 480 % 4.4% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% % 23.0% 25.2% 18.7% 38.5% 43.8% 42.4% EBIT 49 57 53 67 79 91 468 463 576 918 1,041 1,134 % 10.4% 9.4% 8.6% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7% 145 129 148 170 196 172-15 -18-12 -9-10 -11 122 100 176 169 201 233 % 3.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 24 38 54 65 78 90-3 -4-4 -2 0 0 291 267 377 404 475 496 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 41 30 30 30 31 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 % 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 344 309 407 434 505 527 36 35 37 55 68 80 118 148 163 478 530 602 7.6% 5.7% 6.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 6 6 6 6 6 6-2 1 2 2 2 2 468 463 576 918 1,041 1,134 34 35 39 57 70 81 7.2% 5.8% 6.3% 7.5% 7.7% 7.7% -6-5 -5-7 -9-10 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 17.7% 15.4% 11.8% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 28 30 34 50 61 71 0.346 0.368 0.439 0.465 0.571 0.665 0 1-1 0 0 0 1.478 1.846 2.035 4.464 4.957 5.622 28 29 35 50 61 71 0.335 0.471 0.581 0.835 0.884 1.080 5.9% 4.8% 5.7% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 23.38% 19.93% 21.56% 10.41% 11.51% 11.82% 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 5.91% 6.36% 6.10% 5.42% 5.86% 6.27% 28 30 34 50 61 71 12.59% 14.88% 13.50% 8.54% 9.09% 9.86% 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 17 18 28 46 56 25.64% 28.83% 0.97% 24.02% 19.35% 15.80% 9 18 10 12 13 13 EBIT 33.97% 16.11% -7.11% 25.86% 18.70% 15.29% -24-28 -16-1 -25-25 38.54% 6.44% 19.25% 41.72% 22.75% 16.50% 27 38 46 89 95 116 0.09% -1.15% 24.40% 59.41% 13.46% 8.89% -37-23 -4-272 -148-79 -7-2 0-1 0 0 77.1 78.8 107.4 95.0 95.0 95.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 74.8 51.2 54.7 54.0 54.0 54.0-44 -26-4 -273-148 -79 65.9 53.5 78.4 75.0 75.0 75.0 1 0 0 265-8 0 59.7 59.3 52.7 116.4 115.4 97.7 76-27 8 22 25-23 -44-19 -31-13 -14-14 60.00% 52.73% 41.44% 0.06% 14.11% 8.69% 33-46 -23 275 3-37 EBIT 3.4 3.1 4.5 7.1 7.6 8.2 16-34 19 92-50 0 73.47% 66.68% 70.76% 47.35% 48.53% 46.45% 10
612 11