2010 01 23 60.21 29.70 5271.41 300 3366.20 3128.59 12595.94 5792.92 5777 5277 4777 4277 3777 3277 090123 090423 090717 091015 100106 300 1 2010 2010.1.20 2 12, 2010.1.18 (8621)61038269 xieg@gjzq.com.cn (8621)61038271 zhuli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 200011 2010 1 20 2010 2010 1 5.2% 25% 1000, 2010 1000 200 4500-5500 4811 / 86 12 0.67% 0.82% 09 100 11% 10.5% 12-15 此报告仅供大成基金管理有限公司刘明 2 使用 1

1 38.75 2.262 87.65 0.554 0.749 1.053 1.264 51.74 36.80 30.66 13.02 2.439 31.76 0.188 0.241 0.295 0.388 54.02 44.14 33.56 10.00 6.336 63.36 0.196 0.137 0.272 0.446 72.99 36.76 22.42 27.16 4.1 111.36 0.491 0.5 0.824 1.142 54.32 32.96 23.78 28.75 1.511 43.44 0.574 0.799 0.957 1.07 35.98 30.04 26.87 18.70 4.385 82.00 0.504 0.474 0.774 1.081 39.45 24.16 17.30 13.20 7.567 99.88 0.302 0.426 0.504 0.61 30.99 26.19 21.64 21.47 2.866 61.53 0.094 0.39 1.056 0.751 55.05 20.33 28.59 14.38 2.017 29.00 0.372 0.122 0.349 0.572 117.87 41.20 25.14 11.07 6.875 76.11 0.154 0.281 0.356 0.359 39.40 31.10 30.84 17.76 1.66 29.48-1.436 0.439 0.534 0.603 40.46 33.26 29.45 18.22 2.026 36.91 0.775 0.841 0.981 1.147 21.66 18.57 15.88 14.36 17.145 246.20 0.343 0.316 0.433 0.519 45.44 33.16 27.67 14.79 10.056 148.73 0.33 0.48 0.56 0.67 30.81 26.41 22.07 1.28 12.222 15.64-0.048 0.112 0.156 0.383 11.43 8.21 3.34 7.13 8.801 62.75 0.09 0.028 0.135 0.145 254.64 52.81 49.17 1 2 10 1 22... 3 2010... 4... 4.5... 7... 7... 10... 10 12... 11... 11... 12... 12... 14... 17 2010 1000... 18 2

2010 1 20 2010 2010 1 5.2% 25% 1000, 2010 1000 200 4500-5500 4811 / 86 12 0.67% 0.82% 09 100 11% 10.5% 12-15 3040% 2010 10 1 22 1 3

1 2010 2010 1 20 2010 2010 220 190 / 47% 22% 4

170-200 2 190 / 3 220 / 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 WIND 2010 H1N1 09 5 15-20% 20-25% 170-200 / 4 15-20% 5 2030% 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2008-01 2008-03 2008-05 2008-07 WIND, 2008-09 2008-11 2009-01 2009-03 2009-05 2009-07 2009-09 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006-01 2006-05 50% 2006-09 2007-01 2007-05 2007-09 2008-01 2008-05 2008-09 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2 5.2% 138.65 / 3 35% 90% 55.8% 34.8% 08/09 06/07 10% 5

08/09 7.1% 16% 25% 2000/200012003/2004 50% 2004 25%2008/2009 24.93% 6 10% 708/09 7% 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 USDA 8 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 USDA 1000 2007 1800-1900 / 2000 / 1800-1900 / 2010 1000 6

9 5.2% 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Bloomberg 200 5000 4500-5500 21 09/10 900 1445 356537.32 4811 / 139 / 104 / 12 73 86 156 08/09 1390 1700 / 29.82 28.78 / 4.2% 3.1% 5605 / 5070 / 70 / 5070 / 5050 / 5060-5080 / 20 / 5020 / 80 / 5100 / 4950 / 7

10NYBOT / 11/ 33 28 23 18 13 8 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Bloomberg 12 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Bloomberg 12 73 86 159 20 3-5 8

13 09 12 205 180 -- 12 2 2009 11 13 307 76% 23.6 300 2009 12 2326 2.8 5232 3 2009 12 24-25 1957 4 1.7 4 1040 2009 12 24-25 0.73 12 22 0.9 1999 1 12 6.06 22.69 720 710-720 12 1 763 268 300 29 29 30 / 2 7448 / 7654 / 5050 / 50% 9

14 1163 15 1 21 36 () 500 12.10 1 14 0.01 / 14.55 / 14.55 / 30% 11.0020.009.00 / 16 17: / 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Wind 10

12 11 46900 0.67% 4910 0.82% 09 100 11% 10.5% 12-15 18 19 48000 47000 46000 45000 44000 43000 42000 41000 40000 5100 5000 4900 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 11.4% 11.2% 11.0% 10.8% 10.6% 10.4% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 20 4-6 11

6370 6400-6500 5100 300 690 WPI 2010/11 7850 2009/10 7750 WPI 2010/11 33.64 2009/10 33.61 7730 2009/10 7640 43.5 2009/10 44 / WPI 2010/11 13 2009/10 13.75 17.3 17.1 2010/11 4.13 2009/10 2.45 1 19 Somar 1 19 2 12 1 10 2009 12 478 11 289 1 12 4,255 2008 3,744 13.7%,2010, 4200, : 2009 2009 3 87.6%85% 79% 8 20 4.3% 18.4% 0.7 20% 15% 39.5% 2008 40% 38% 12

21USDA 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 90.73 96.28 101.49 101.81 2.44 2.19 2.47 2.49 221.14 210.86 250.25 253.38 3.13 1.25 25.96 30.22 31.01 30.92 2.81 2.67 2.91 2.96 72.86 80.75 90.34 91.47 1.14 1.26 21.30 21.70 22.70 23.10 2.86 2.63 2.78 2.81 61.00 57.00 63.00 65.00 2.00 3.17 16.37 16.00 18.80 18.80 2.82 2.00 2.82 2.82 46.20 32.00 53.00 53.00 0.00 0.00 8.75 9.13 8.80 8.80 1.60 1.70 1.65 1.65 14.00 15.50 14.50 14.50 0.00 0.00 18.35 19.23 20.18 20.19 1.48 1.33 1.46 1.46 27.08 25.61 29.41 29.41 0.00 0.00 USDA 22 23 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 62,885 52,945 42,407 42,872 465 221,141 210,863 250,254 253,380 3,126 78,132 76,468 77,790 78,905 1,115 79,519 76,733 79,609 80,611 1,002 52,945 42,872 57,093 59,798 2,705 2,700 4,245 9,008 9,008 0 14,000 15,500 14,500 14,500 0 37,816 41,098 41,000 42,000 1,000 453 400 500 500 0 4,245 9,008 8,998 9,698 700 USDA CBOT 951.5 / 2.3% 1 3872 / 1.4% 3700-3720 / 3680-3700 / 10-50 / 3310 / 24CBOT (/) 25 1 / 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 4400 4200 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 Bloomberg 13

26USDA- 1 / 27 2 / 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 4100 3900 3700 3500 3300 3100 2900 2700 2500 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Bloomberg 28/ 29/ 8300 8100 7900 7700 7500 7300 7100 6900 6700 6500 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 Bloomberg 30/ 31/ 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Bloomberg 7.96 384.7 WPI 2010/11 9000 136.62 2009/10 131.51 14

WPI 2010/11 8280 7960 165 / 165.2 WPI 2010/11 21 2009/10 20.5 113.7 2009/10 110.2 2010/11 44 2009/10 42 2010/11 19.56 17.64 Informa 2010/11 2% 1.599 1.569 3330 3190 240 210 1450 1340 880 870 Informa 2009/10 7.981 3.294 3.282 3.074 5270 5410 5100 1550 1300 1350 2009/10 1 7 310 89% 2008/09 2200 1310 2009/10 1750 900 2010 1 19 () 50.68 14.5 28.61% 07 7.9 4600 1860 / 5.82%08 42.77 14.04 1848 / 32.82% 1 13 12 31 10 2009 1,695.7 2008 361.5 372.9 22% 2008 709.2 2009 12 36243 1 ~12 129584 52.6% 2009 12 36243 11 4417 2009 1 ~12 129584 2008 273419 52.6% 9 650 g/l 96% 2008 2008 2008 15

1879 / 0.7%CBOT 364.75 / 1.8% 32CBOT / 33/ 500 450 400 350 300 1950 1900 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 1600 Bloomberg 34USDA 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 159.93 157.19 156.93 155.21 4.95 5.04 5.04 5.13 791.87 791.62 790.18 796.45 6.27 0.79 35.01 31.8 32.09 32.23 9.46 9.66 10.23 10.37 331.18 307.14 328.21 334.05 5.85 1.78 14.7 14.1 13.3 13.3 3.99 3.62 3.83 3.83 58.6 51 51 51 0 0 3.41 2.25 1.9 2 6.45 5.6 7.37 7.5 22 12.6 14 15 1 7.14 29.48 29.86 30 30 5.17 5.56 5.17 5.17 152.3 165.9 155 155 0 0 77.33 79.18 79.64 77.68 2.95 3.22 3.04 3.11 227.79 254.98 241.97 241.40-0.57-0.24 USDA 35 36 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 108,864 129,606 145,439 145,971 532 791,871 791,617 790,175 796,446 6,271 98,348 81,143 81,899 82,299 400 98,609 82,002 83,957 84,557 600 129,606 145,971 132,342 136,189 3,847 36,602 39,394 53,169 53,169 0 152,300 165,900 155,000 155,000 0 41 47 50 50 0 549 172 500 500 0 39,394 53,169 48,719 48,719 0 USDA 16

37USDA / 38 2 / 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Bloomberg 24% 1.64 20% 1.96 Informa 2010 2009 2% 2.22 2009 2.258 2,570 2009 2,540 2,800 2009 2,880 1,930 2009 2,020 680 2009 690 2,350 2009 2,400 2009/10 91% 18 11 2009 11 10 12 1 20 49.42 33.99 68.78% 17

39USDA 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 218.01 224.96 225.69 225.73 2.8 3.03 2.99 3 610.46 682.68 673.86 676.13 2.27 0.34 20.64 22.54 20.18 20.18 2.7 3.02 2.99 2.99 55.82 68.02 60.31 60.31 0 0 28 28.15 27.8 27.8 2.71 2.79 2.9 2.9 75.81 78.57 80.58 80.58 0 0 24.4 26.65 28.75 28.75 2.02 2.39 2.07 2.15 49.4 63.7 59.5 61.7 2.2 3.7 23.72 23.62 24 24 4.61 4.76 4.77 4.77 109.3 112.46 114.5 114.5 0 0 121.25 124.00 124.96 125.00 2.64 2.90 2.87 2.87 320.13 359.93 358.97 359.04 0.07 0.02 USDA 40 41 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 127,594 121,069 163,753 163,944 191 610,456 682,682 673,862 676,127 2,265 113,391 136,359 120,359 121,159 800 117,203 142,893 124,673 123,202-1,471 121,069 163,944 190,909 195,604 4,695 38,450 38,963 48,685 48,685 0 109,298 112,464 114,500 114,500 0 50 481 400 600 200 2,835 723 1,000 1,000 0 38,963 48,685 60,585 60,785 200 USDA 2267 / 0.5%CBOT 498.75 / 2.3% 42CBOT / 43/ 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 2320 2300 2280 2260 2240 2220 2200 2180 2160 2140 2120 Bloomberg 2010 1000 2009 10 1 2010 1 17 1814 1834 1% 9 30 3330 2009 1 1 12 30 8,568,343 2008 10,011,035 14.4% CP PrasitDamrongchietanon 2010 1000 2009 850 18

2010 5% 900 Prasit 2010 CP 100 150 45 55 1 10 6 2009 1174.6 213.2 524.6 45% 423.9 2009 12 31 0.2 7 2008 2008 1 14 9.9 06 4.76 2278 /07 3.93 2451 /08 1.21 2495 / 44CBOT / 45/ 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 2250 2200 2150 2100 2050 2000 Bloomberg 46:5%/ 47:5%/ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 WIND 19

48/ 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Mar-02 Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 WIND 49USDA 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 07/08 08/09 10 10 154.85 156.51 152.17 152.53 4.18 4.26 4.25 4.25 433.89 446.57 433.85 434.73 0.87 0.2 28.92 29.24 29.68 29.68 6.43 6.56 6.59 6.59 130.22 134.33 137 137 0 0 43.77 44 38.5 38.8 3.31 3.38 3.23 3.27 96.69 99.15 83 84.5 1.5 1.81 11.9 12.17 12 12 4.82 4.88 4.86 4.78 37 38.3 37.6 37-0.6-1.6 7.41 7.32 7.33 7.33 4.98 5.05 5.02 5.02 24.38 24.39 24.3 24.3 0 0 10.6 10.8 10.9 10.9 2.76 2.75 2.85 2.85 19.3 19.6 20.5 20.5 0 0 52.25 52.98 53.76 53.82 2.42 2.47 2.45 2.44 126.30 130.80 131.45 131.43-0.02-0.02 USDA 50 51 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 2007/2 008 2008/2 009 10 (Dec) 10 (Jan) 75,100 80,491 91,557 92,411 854 433,886 446,566 433,853 434,725 872 29,201 27,019 28,101 28,213 112 31,138 28,415 30,484 30,913 429 80,491 92,411 89,460 90,662 1,202 35,915 38,015 42,201 42,875 674 130,224 134,330 137,000 137,000 0 295 330 350 350 0 969 800 1,500 1,500 0 38,015 42,875 44,751 45,225 474 USDA 20

612 20% 612 10%20% 612-10%10% 612 10%20% 612 20% 36 5% 36-5%5% 36 5% 21