31 1 2007 1 Vol131, No11 January 2007 19 Population Research 1990 1990,, 2000, 1990,2000 0 9 ; 2000 0 9 1991 2000, 1990,1991,, 1990 1. 7 1. 8 : ; ;,:100872 1 30, 1980, 1990,, 1990,, 1990, 1990, 1. 8, 2000 1990 2000,, 2000,, 1990 1990,, 2000, 1990 1. 1 2000 1990 2002 2000,,2000 2000,20 0 9 : (1) 0 9 1991 2000,,1995 1. 62, 1. 5,1999 1. 09 1996 2000 5 1. 31, 1. 3,, 0 9 (2) 2000 10 19
20 31 4 1990 0 9,,2000 10 19 (18 ) 1990 0 9, 1990 0 9, 5. 81 %2000 1990,,; (3) 1996 2000,a 100 %,b, 6 (, ),c 11 1 9 1, 5 1208, 6 10 1208, 2000 ; (4),2000 20,,20,0 9 (,2002) 2004,1997 2002,2002 (3),,4 9 1996, 18. 94 %, 0 3, 1018 2000 0 9 3014 (,2004) b, 6,,,,4 9 1996, 0 3,0 9 3014, 1990 2000,10 4,1. 315,, 10,2000 71. 0, 69. 0, 72. 5, 35 %, 2000 0 14 3. 22, 0 14 2. 90, 3200 (,2002) 2004,,,, 0,, : 0 9 15913, 2000 0 9 18918,3005 (,2004) :, 2000 2000 1990, 0 507. 6, 27. 98 %,2000 11 1 0 27. 98 %, 0 538. 65, 0, 2000 (,2004) Robert D. Retherford (own - children) (birth history recon2 struction) 1990 2000, 16 %, 1. 36 1. 58, 2000 2000 1996 2000, 10 %, 1. 35 1. 48, 1996 2000 (Robert D. Retherford,2004),,,,
1 1990 21,, 2000 1, 0 10,,, 1990 2000 50 1990,,,0 10 18, 82. 1 %,, 80 %,,,, 1990 2000 :2. 73,1. 80,1. 68, 1157,1. 47,1. 48,1. 36,1. 31,1. 31,1. 23,1. 23 ;, 2000 1. 23, 1999 11 2000 10 1. 229,, 1. 5,1. 7 (,2004),,,1970 30 1. 625, 1990 1. 6 (,2004), 1990 ;, ;,(,2004) 1. 2 :1990?, 2000, 1990, : (1),, ; (2), ; (3),2000 0 9 ; (4) 2000 0 9 1991 2000, 1990 1. 3 2000 0 22,6 10,1982 1990,;, ;, 0 9,,,,3,, 4 0
22 31 9, 1991 2000 5 2 :,,,,,, 2004 7 6 :; ; 2. 1, :9,,, 8, 3 1 3 1,( ), (,, ),,,,,,, ( ), 2. 2 2. 2. 1,,,,,,,,,, (1),,,,,,, 10 20 %,,,, (2),,,
1 1990 23,, 1980 0 17,, :,, 2. 2. 2 (1),, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,, (2),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (3),,,,,,,,,, (4),, ( 200 ),,,,,,, 2. 2. 3 (1),,,,,,,,,,, 6 (2)
24 31,,, :,,,, (3),(),,,,,,,,,, 2. 2. 4 (1),, ( ),,,,,,, (2),2001,,, 2001,,,, (3),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,2000 3 1982 1990 2000, 1982 1990 2000 1982 1990 2000 1988 1990 2003 1982 1990 2000 0 5 0 13 0 23 1988 1990 2003 8 11,, 3. 1
1 1990 25, : (1), 5 23,, (2) ( ) 9 1,1982 1990 7 1,2000 11 1,,, (3),, (4), 3. 2 (1),,, 1,1990/ 1982 2000/ 1982, 1982 0 1 2 4 6 1, 1982 0 1 2 4 6, 1990 2000,1990 0 6 8 9 2000,,,,,,,,,,, 1 1982 1990 2000 1982 1990 2000 1990/ 1982 2000/ 1990 2000/ 1982 1990 23220851 (0 ) 26210044 (10 ) 1. 129 1989 23331877 (1 ) 25137678 (11 ) 1. 077 1988 24180595 (2 ) 24576191 (12 ) 1. 016 1987 24294365 (3 ) 26282644 (13 ) 1. 082 1986 21410731 (4 ) 23190076 (14 ) 1. 083 1985 19982290 (5 ) 20429326 (15 ) 1. 022 1984 19056078 (6 ) 20313426 (16 ) 1. 066 1983 20196487 (7 ) 20065048 (17 ) 0. 993 1982 20809347 (0 ) 22015342 (8 ) 23100427 (18 ) 1. 058 1. 049 1. 110 1981 17375778 (1 ) 18086546 (9 ) 19122938 (19 ) 1. 041 1. 057 1. 101 1980 18273841 (2 ) 19224062 (10 ) 18393809 (20 ) 1. 052 0. 957 1. 007 1979 19625509 (3 ) 19310091 (11 ) 18924822 (21 ) 0. 984 0. 980 0. 964 1978 18619886 (4 ) 18864678 (12 ) 18831591 (22 ) 1. 013 0. 998 1. 011 1977 19421300 (5 ) 19367292 (13 ) 17931155 (23 ) 0. 997 0. 926 0. 923 1976 20432542 (6 ) 20460569 (14 ) 20491799 (24 ) 1. 001 1. 002 1. 003 1975 21779429 (7 ) 21643791 (15 ) 21136635 (25 ) 0. 994 0. 977 0. 970 1974 24032967 (8 ) 23487567 (16 ) 22874423 (26 ) 0. 977 0. 974 0. 952 1973 25069633 (9 ) 24536599 (17 ) 23630435 (27 ) 0. 979 0. 963 0. 943 1972 25222513 (10 ) 24496002 (18 ) 24800391 (28 ) 0. 971 1. 012 0. 983
26 31 (2) 9 10,,8, 8 ;,11,11 9 10,1 9 10, (3) :, 1 8 11 : 8 11 10 1 ( ),10 1 2000 10 1,; 10 1, 2,2000 10 1, ;2000 10 1,,2000 0 10 1990, 2000 0 10 1990 1990 [ 0. 903, 11068 ], 11009,2000 [1. 034, 1. 133 ], 1. 083 2 2000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1979 0. 984 1980 0. 994 0. 962 1981 0. 993 0. 997 0. 956 2000 1982 0. 894 0. 904 0. 904 0. 860 10 1983 0. 978 0. 983 0. 980 0. 937 1984 0. 952 0. 958 0. 960 0. 919 1985 0. 993 1. 002 1. 007 0. 962 1986 0. 964 0. 972 0. 971 0. 928 1987 0. 935 0. 944 0. 943 0. 898 1988 0. 993 0. 997 0. 995 0. 949 1989 0. 981 0. 985 0. 984 0. 939 1990 0. 938 0. 945 0. 946 0. 886 1991 1. 084 1. 094 1. 098 1. 034 2000 1992 1. 064 1. 079 1. 093 1. 041 10 1993 1. 061 1. 087 1. 099 1994 1. 115 1. 133 1995 1. 074 (4) 1988 1982,1 ; 1982, 3 1988 1982, 1,
1 1990 27, 100 %, 1982,, 3 1988 1982 1982 1988 1988/ 1982 1977 19421300 (5 ) 18673297 (11 ) 0. 961 1978 18619886 (4 ) 18807623 (10 ) 1. 010 1979 19625509 (3 ) 19471521 (9 ) 0. 992 1980 18273841 (2 ) 18459450 (8 ) 1. 010 (5),, 4, 9 10,,, 4 2000 2000 9 11478047 10674963 1. 08 10485888 9407063 1. 11 10 12941475 13811030 0. 94 11848945 12399014 0. 96,, ; 10,, 4,,,, 9 10, 9 10,, 9 10, 2000 0 9, 0 9, 1990, 1990 4. 1 0 9, 9 1, 2000 11 1, 2000 9 1 (B,11 1 A ), :
28 31 p x = p x - 1 6 p x + 1 6 p x + 1 p x 9 1 x (B ), p x 11 1 x (A ), 9 10 2000 9 10 2000 n 9 10,m,: n < m : n > m : ( B ) 2000 B 2 2 : (1) 10,,; (2) 10 16,; (3) 15,, 1980 ; (4) 19,,1980 2 (B) (B)
1 1990 29,2003 9 2000 6,6 (0 5 ),,6 22,, 3 3, 10, 6 9, 4, 5 2000 0 9, 98 %,, 97 % 96 % 95 %0 9 2967 3783, 1390 1782, 1577 2001
30 31 4 5 2000 0 9 = 97 % 87952997 103590838 15637841 87952997 101854028 13901031 75080525 93131287 18050762 75080525 90853947 15773422 163033522 196722125 33688603 163033522 192707975 29674453 = 96 % 87952997 104669909 16716912 87952997 102915007 14962011 75080525 94101405 19020880 75080525 91800343 16719818 163033522 198771313 35737791 163033522 194715350 31681828 = 95 % 87952997 105771697 17818700 87952997 103998323 16045326 75080525 95091946 20011421 75080525 92766662 17686137 163033522 200863643 37830121 163033522 196764985 33731463 4. 2 1991 2000 0 9,, 0, : B M = L 0 l 0 = l 1 + a 0 d 0 l 0 = l 1 + d 0 (0. 0425 + 2. 875 q 0 ) l 0 B F = L 0 l 0 = l 1 + a 0 d 0 l 0 = l 0 + d 0 (0. 05 + 3 q 0 ) l 0 1 9, : B = P x l 0 L x,
1 1990 31,,,,?, 5 1990 2000, 1990 1990 2000 1991 2000, 2000, 5 1990 2000, 2000 15 58 2000 7 1, : W x = W x - 1 3 W x + 1 3 W x + 1, W x 7 1, W x 11 1 2000 15 58, 1991 1999 15 49, 95 %, 6 1990 7,1991,, 1990 1. 7 1. 8 5 6 1991 2000 1991 12888276 11720247 24608523 12888276 11720247 24608523 1992 12021563 10862187 22883750 12021563 10862187 22883750 1993 11563508 10413890 21977397 11563508 10413890 21977397 1994 10964348 9866097 20830445 10964348 9866097 20830445 1995 11278831 10234336 21513167 11301055 10173089 21474144 1996 10699753 9687125 20386878 10663451 9578578 20242029 1997 10537372 9436995 19974367 10322121 9175437 19497558 1998 10364552 9176659 19541212 9984248 8780116 18764364 1999 10044619 9028763 19073382 9629674 8605172 18234847 2000 9731033 8874384 18605417 9274307 8418043 17692350 2000 0 9,1991 2000 2000 :
32 31 (1),,,,,,,,, ; (2) 2000 0 9 3000 3800, 1400 1800, 1600 2000 95 97 % ; 7 1991 2000 1991 2. 24 2. 24 1992 2. 05 2. 05 1993 1. 94 1. 94 1994 1. 82 1. 82 1995 1. 86 1. 86 1996 1. 78 1. 77 1997 1. 77 1. 73 1998 1. 77 1. 70 1999 1. 77 1. 69 2000 1. 77 1. 68 (3) 2000 0 9, 1990, 1990,1990 1. 7 1. 8 : 1. 2000.,2002 ;4 2. 2000. 2000,2004 3..,2002 ;3 4.. 2000,2004 5. 2000.,2004 ;2 6 Robert D. Retherford. :?,2004 ;4 7. 1990.. 2004 ;2 8. 1990.,2004 ;4 9. 1990. ;2004 ;2 Chinese Fertility in the 1990s Abstract : It has been a mystery how high Chinese fertility is in the 1990s. Using education statistics from Ministry of Health, which are independent of statistics from population - related departments, this paper assesses levels and patterns of underreporting in the 2000 census, thus estimating China s fertility in the 1990s. Upon adjust2 ment according to the education statistics, age - sex structure of population aged 0-9 of the 2000 census is re2 constructed, which is then converted into annual number of births in 1991-2000, and fertility rates in the 1990s are reproduced. Estimates show that China reached replacement fertility in 1991, and had below - replacement fertility after that. China s total fertility rate in the late 1990s stood at 1. 7-1. 8. Key words : Education statistics ; Census data ; Total fertility rate Authors : Zhai Zhenwu is professor of Center for Population and Development Studies and dean of School of Soci2 ology and Demography ; Chen Wei is professor of Center for Population and Development Studies, People s Uni2 versity of China. ( : :2007-01)