2008 12 31 1
1 1.1 2009 3 27 2008 1 1 12 31 1.2 1... 2 1.1... 2 1.2... 2 2... 4 2.1... 4 2.2... 4 2.3... 5 2.4... 6 2.5... 6 3... 6 3.1... 6 3.2... 7 3.3... 9 4... 10 4.1... 10 4.2... 11 4.3... 11 4.4... 11 4.5... 12 4.6... 12 4.7... 12 2
4.8... 13 5... 13 5.1... 13 5.2... 13 5.3... 13 6... 13 7... 15 7.1... 15 7.2... 16 7.3... 17 7.4... 18 8... 34 8.1... 34 8.2... 34 8.3... 34 8.4... 35 8.5... 35 8.6... 36 8.7... 36 8.8... 36 9... 37 9.1... 37 9.2... 37 10... 37 11... 37 11.1... 37 11.2... 37 11.3... 38 11.4... 38 11.5... 38 11.6... 38 11.7... 38 11.8 0.5%... 38 11.9... 38 12... 39 13... 39 3
2 2.1 370010 2005 4 13 6,098,144,498.21 A B 370010 370010 658,893,075.19 5,439,251,423.02 2.2 ( Money-supply Expectations Effect) (Fisher Effect) (Flow of Funds) 4
/ / 2.3 021-38794999 010-67595003 peter.zhu@jpmf-sitico. yindong@ccb.cn com 400-889-4888 021-38794888 010-67595096 5
021-68881170 010-66275853 99 20 25 99 20 1 1 200120 100140 2.4 www.51fund.com 2.5 202 11 99 20 3 3.1 3.1.1 2008 2007 2006 A B A B A B 18,521,337.00 169,411,606.08 19,658,019.03 94,519,338.37 2,594,911.48 12,819,420.72 18,521,337.00 169,411,606.08 19,658,019.03 94,519,338.37 2,594,911.48 12,819,420.72 2.6698% 2.9159% 3.3267% 3.5741% 1.4773% 1.7199% 3.1.2 2008 A B 2007 A B 2006 A B 658,893,075.19 5,439,251,423.02 557,299,674.84 4,542,785,658.70 342,165,141.04 1,020,171,368.33 6
3.1.3 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 2008 2007 2006 A B A B A B 8.3660% 9.3356% 5.5481% 6.2379% 2.1499% 2.5720% 3.2 3.2.1 A B A B A B A B A B 0.7154% 0.1002% 0.3935% 0.0005% 0.3219% 0.0997% 0.7761% 0.1072% 0.3935% 0.0005% 0.3826% 0.1067% 1.3696% 0.0755% 0.8019% 0.0003% 0.5677% 0.0752% 1.4919% 0.0810% 0.8019% 0.0003% 0.6900% 0.0807% 2.6698% 0.0568% 2.4264% 0.0027% 0.2434% 0.0541% 2.9159% 0.0608% 2.4264% 0.0027% 0.4895% 0.0581% 7.6524% 0.0994% 6.5797% 0.0021% 1.0727% 0.0973% 8.4274% 0.1003% 6.5797% 0.0021% 1.8477% 0.0982% 8.3660% 0.1028% 7.7730% 0.0019% 0.5930% 0.1009% 9.3356% 0.1037% 7.7730% 0.0019% 1.5626% 0.1018% 2005 4 13 3.2.2 7
1 A 2005 4 13 2008 12 31 2 B 2005 07 13 2005 04 13 2005 04 13 2008 12 31 3.2.3 8
2005 4 13 2005 4 13 2008 12 31 3.3 2008 2007 A 18,521,337.00 B 169,411,606.08 A 19,658,019.03 B 94,519,338.37 A 2,594,911.48 2006 B 12,819,420.72 A 40,774,267.51 B 276,750,365.17 9
4 4.1 4.1.1 2004 5 12 2007 10 8 1.5 2008 12 2004 9 15 1,669,305,034.88 2005 4 13 991,360,522.73 2005 10 11 767,620,088.15 2006 04 26 6,435,738,977.50 2006 09 20 5,480,692,618.04 2007 04 13 9,884,799,607.98 2007 10 22 29,572,160,439.53 2008 5 21 1,423,318,139.20 4.1.2 10 2006-02-14 2008-11-29 2008-11-29-5 1975 2005 9 2003 5 2003 2007 2007 6 10
2008 6 1. 2. 4.2 4.3 4.3.1, 4.3.2 4.3.3 4.4 2008 2008 CPI PPI PMI CPI 200BP 02 100BP -- AAA 75 120 3 11
2008 75 2008 B A 2.9159% 2.6698% 4.5 2009 2009 2009 4.6 1 2 3 4 5, 4.7 12
4.8 25,, 2008 A 18,521,337.00,B 169,411,606.08 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 6 (2009) 20171 2008 12 31 2008 () 13
(1) (2) (3) 2008 12 31 2008 2009 3 26 14
7 7.1 2008 12 31 2008 12 31 2007 12 31 7.4.7.1 1,820,743.94 560,378,605.61 27,585,000.00 90,648,521.37 - - 7.4.7.2 4,660,136,855.21 3,431,596,859.83 - - - - 4,660,136,855.21 3,431,596,859.83 - - 7.4.7.3 - - 7.4.7.4 1,109,900,000.00 979,822,344.00 298,887,385.00 50,116,500.00 7.4.7.5 8,247,810.03 5,092,444.72 - - - - - - 7.4.7.6 - - 6,106,577,794.18 5,117,655,275.53 2008 12 31 2007 12 31 - - - - 7.4.7.3 - - - - - - 2,356,467.68 13,024,991.75 2,188,658.45 1,308,548.77 663,229.83 396,529.94 199,255.09 160,511.09 7.4.7.7 54,824.22 59,714.72 - - - - 2,856,360.70 2,305,145.72 15
- - 7.4.7.8 114,500.00 314,500.00 8,433,295.97 17,569,941.99 - - 7.4.7.9 6,098,144,498.21 5,100,085,333.54 A 658,893,075.19 557,299,674.84 B 5,439,251,423.02 4,542,785,658.70 7.4.7.10 - - 6,098,144,498.21 5,100,085,333.54 6,106,577,794.18 5,117,655,275.53 2008 12 31 1.000 6,098,144,498.21 7.4 7.2 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 219,047,270.30 129,339,787.26 1. 209,228,721.62 129,351,580.01 7.4.7.11 5,229,039.69 3,308,095.03 173,512,707.71 42,252,362.75 - - 30,486,974.22 83,791,122.23 - - 2. - 9,768,548.68-11,792.75 7.4.7.12 - - - - 7.4.7.13 9,768,548.68-11,792.75 - - 7.4.7.14 - - 7.4.7.15 - - 3. - 7.4.7.16 - - 4. - - 5. - 7.4.7.17 50,000.00 - - -31,114,327.22-15,162,429.86 1-21,677,884.59-9,912,465.32 2-6,569,056.01-3,003,777.24 16
3-2,351,409.35-1,801,139.87 4 7.4.7.18 - - 5 - - - - 6 7.4.7.19-515,977.27-445,047.43-187,932,943.08 114,177,357.40 - - - - 187,932,943.08 114,177,357.40 7.4 7.3 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 5,100,085,333.54-5,100,085,333.54-187,932,943.08 187,932,943.08 998,059,164.67-998,059,164.67-1. 44,392,537,889.97-44,392,537,889.97 2. - -43,394,478,725.30 - -43,394,478,725.30 - -187,932,943.08-187,932,943.08-6,098,144,498.21-6,098,144,498.21 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 1,362,336,509.37-1,362,336,509.37-114,177,357.40 114,177,357.40 3,737,748,824.17-3,737,748,824.17 17
- 1. 22,245,180,349.51-22,245,180,349.51 2. - -18,507,431,525.34 - -18,507,431,525.34 - -114,177,357.40-114,177,357.40-5,100,085,333.54-5,100,085,333.54 7.4 7.4 7.4.1 ( )( )[2005]15 () 991,196,238.02 (2005)38 2005413 991,360,522.73 397 200861 6200861 () 2009 3 26 7.4.2 2006 2 15 38 ( )[2009]4 XBRL 3 <> 2007 5 15 7.4.4 7.4.3 2008 2008 12 18
31 2008 7.4.4 7.4.4.1 1 1 12 31 7.4.4.2 7.4.4.3 (1) (2) 7.4.4.4 7.4.4.5 0.25% 19
(1) (2) (3) 7.4.4.6 7.4.4.7 1.00 AB 7.4.4.8 7.4.4.9 /() 7.4.4.10 20
7.4.4.11 1.00 7.4.4.12 7.4.5 7.4.5.1 7.4.5.2 7.4.5.3 7.4.6 [2002]128 [2004]78 (1) (2) (3) 20% 7.4.7 7.4.7.1 2008 12 31 2007 12 31 1,820,743.94 560,378,605.61 - - - - 1,820,743.94 560,378,605.61 : 2008 12 31 (2007 12 31 ) 21
7.4.7.2 2008 12 31 - - - - 4,660,136,855.21 4,678,075,000.00 17,938,144.79 0.2942% 4,660,136,855.21 4,678,075,000.00 17,938,144.79 0.2942% 2007 12 31 - - - - 3,431,596,859.83 3,430,023,000.00-1,573,859.83-0.0309% 3,431,596,859.83 3,430,023,000.00-1,573,859.83-0.0309% 1 2/ 7.4.7.3 / 7.4.7.4 7.4.7.4.1 2008 12 31 1,109,900,000.00 - - - 1,109,900,000.00-2007 12 31 979,800,000.00 - - - 979,800,000.00-7.4.7.4.2 7.4.7.5 22
2008 12 31 2007 12 31 90,124.32 240,265.14 - - - - 13,378.78 44,870.98 8,080,004.58 4,270,025.37 64,302.35 537,283.23 - - - - 8,247,810.03 5,092,444.72 7.4.7.6 7.4.7.7 2008 12 31 2007 12 31 20,764.72 45,764.72 34,059.50 13,950.00 54,824.22 59,714.72 7.4.7.8 2008 12 31 2007 12 31 110,000.00 90,000.00-220,000.00 4,500.00 4,500.00 114,500.00 314,500.00 7.4.7.9 A 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 A A 557,299,674.84 557,299,674.84 17,315,251,856.96 17,315,251,856.96-17,213,658,456.61-17,213,658,456.61 658,893,075.19 658,893,075.19 23
B 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 B B 4,542,785,658.70 4,542,785,658.70 27,077,286,033.01 27,077,286,033.01-26,180,820,268.69-26,180,820,268.69 5,439,251,423.02 5,439,251,423.02 1. 2. 170,507,508.57 168,202,362.85 2007 12 31 2,305,145.72 7.4.7.10 A - - - 18,521,337.00-18,521,337.00 - - - - - - - - - -18,521,337.00-18,521,337.00 - - - B - - - 169,411,606.08-169,411,606.08 - - - - - - - - - -169,411,606.08 - -169,411,606.08 - - - 7.4.7.11 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 4,462,946.11 2,614,404.92 24
- - - - 766,093.58 693,690.11 - - 5,229,039.69 3,308,095.03 7.4.7.12 7.4.7.13 20081120081231 20071120071231 5,440,020,801.54 7,162,104,132.72-5,428,438,210.34-7,115,955,717.24-1,814,042.52-46,160,208.23 9,768,548.68-11,792.75 7.4.7.14 7.4.7.15 7.4.7.16 7.4.7.17 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 50,000.00-50,000.00-7.4.7.18 7.4.7.19 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 25
110,000.00 90,000.00 240,000.00 220,000.00 100,000.00 99,885.24 47,977.27 17,162.19 18,000.00 18,000.00 515,977.27 445,047.43 7.4.8 7.4.8.1 7.4.8.2 2009 1 2009/02/02 2008/12/25-2009/02/01 2 2009/02/25 2009/02/02-2009/02/24 3 2009/03/25 2009/02/25-2009/03/24 7.4.9 ( ) () ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 7.4.10 7.4.10.1 7.4.10.1.1 7.4.10.1.2 26
7.4.10.1.3 7.4.10.2 7.4.10.2.1 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 21,677,884.59 9,912,465.32 19,489,226.14 8,603,916.55 2,188,658.45 1,308,548.77 : 0.33% X 0.33% / 7.4.10.2.2 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 6,569,056.01 3,003,777.24 5,905,826.18 2,607,247.30 663,229.83 396,529.94 : 0.10% X 0.10% / 7.4.10.2.3 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 A B 1,332,828.45 123,461.20 904,794.67 551,494.98 592,708.00 50,159.27 635,745.35 7,121.92 12,173.79 1,311.84 13,428.81 56.82 23,861.79 2,256.90 24,857.55 1,261.14 1,961,572.03 177,189.21 1,578,826.38 559,934.86 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 27
A B 942,720.64 86,124.17 827,016.84 201,827.97 528,812.33 56,092.02 579,981.79 4,922.56 6,408.36 1,077.38 6,998.86 486.88 19,460.04 2,065.97 21,510.61 15.40 1,497,401.37 145,359.54 1,435,508.10 207,252.81 A B 0.25% 0.01% X / 7.4.10.3 () 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 1,245,168,592.62 - - - - - 147,998,279.51 - - - - - - 199,560,603.28 - - - - 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7.4.10.4 7.4.10.4.1 7.4.10.4.2 7.4.10.5 2008 1 1 2008 12 31 2007 1 1 2007 12 31 1,820,743.94 4,462,946.11 560,378,605.61 2,614,404.92 : 28
7.4.10.6 7.4.11 A 18,521,337.00 B 169,411,606.08 187,932,943.08 : 187,932,943.08 168,202,362.85 16,874,219.53 2,856,360.70 7.4.12 2008 12 31 7.4.12.1 / 7.4.12.2 7.4.12.3 7.4.12.3.1 7.4.12.3.2 7.4.13 7.4.13.1 29
7.4.13.2 10% 10% 7.4.13.3 () 120 40% () 30
2008 12 31 2008 12 31 3 3 1 1 5 5-1,820,743.94 - - - 1,820,743.94-27,585,000.00 - - - 27,585,000.00-2,891,244,000.00 1,569,216,000.00 258,656,500.00-4,719,116,500.00-1,110,131,473.00 - - - 1,110,131,473.00-298,887,385.00 - - - 298,887,385.00-4,329,668,601.94 1,569,216,000.00 258,656,500.00-6,157,541,101.94-2,356,467.68 - - - 2,356,467.68-2,188,658.45 - - - 2,188,658.45-663,229.83 - - - 663,229.83-199,255.09 - - - 199,255.09-54,824.22 - - - 54,824.22-2,856,360.70 - - - 2,856,360.70-114,500.00 - - - 114,500.00-8,433,295.97 - - - 8,433,295.97-4,321,235,305.97 1,569,216,000.00 258,656,500.00-6,149,107,805.97 2007 12 31 3 3 1 1 5 5-560,378,605.61 - - - 560,378,605.61-90,648,521.37 - - - 90,648,521.37-2,644,779,250.00 680,957,750.00 154,938,750.00-3,480,675,750.00-981,634,799.00 - - - 981,634,799.00-50,116,500.00 - - - 50,116,500.00-4,327,557,675.98 680,957,750.00 154,938,750.00-5,163,454,175.98-13,024,991.75 - - - 13,024,991.75-1,308,548.77 - - - 1,308,548.77-396,529.94 - - - 396,529.94 31
- 160,511.09 - - - 160,511.09-59,714.72 - - - 59,714.72-2,305,145.72 - - - 2,305,145.72-314,500.00 - - - 314,500.00-17,569,941.99 - - - 17,569,941.99-4,309,987,733.99 680,957,750.00 154,938,750.00-5,145,884,233.99 7.4.13.4 7.4.13.4.1 7.4.13.4.1.1 2008 12 31 6 6 1 1 5 1,820,743.94 - - - 1,820,743.94 27,585,000.00 - - - 27,585,000.00 4,530,483,636.32 129,653,218.89 - - 4,660,136,855.21 1,109,900,000.00 - - - 1,109,900,000.00 - - - 298,887,385.00 298,887,385.00 - - - 8,247,810.03 8,247,810.03 5,669,789,380.26 129,653,218.89-307,135,195.03 6,106,577,794.18 - - - 2,356,467.68 2,356,467.68 - - - 2,188,658.45 2,188,658.45 - - - 663,229.83 663,229.83 - - - 199,255.09 199,255.09 - - - 54,824.22 54,824.22 - - - 2,856,360.70 2,856,360.70 - - - 114,500.00 114,500.00 32
- - - 8,433,295.97 8,433,295.97 5,669,789,380.26 129,653,218.89-298,701,899.06 6,098,144,498.21 2007 12 31 6 6 1 1 5 560,378,605.61 - - - 560,378,605.61 90,648,521.37 - - - 90,648,521.37 3,135,478,303.16 296,118,556.67 - - 3,431,596,859.83 979,822,344.00 - - - 979,822,344.00 - - - 50,116,500.00 50,116,500.00 - - - 5,092,444.72 5,092,444.72 4,766,327,774.14 296,118,556.67-55,208,944.72 5,117,655,275.53 - - - 13,024,991.75 13,024,991.75 - - - 1,308,548.77 1,308,548.77 - - - 396,529.94 396,529.94 - - - 160,511.09 160,511.09 - - - 59,714.72 59,714.72 - - - 2,305,145.72 2,305,145.72 - - - 314,500.00 314,500.00 - - - 17,569,941.99 17,569,941.99 4,766,327,774.14 296,118,556.67-37,639,002.73 5,100,085,333.54 7.4.13.4.1.2 2008 12 31 2007 12 31 1. 25 280 180 2. 25 279 180 7.4.13.4.2 7.4.13.4.3 7.4.14 33
8 8.1 % 1 4,660,136,855.21 76.31 4,660,136,855.21 76.31 - - 2 1,109,900,000.00 18.18 - - 3 29,405,743.94 0.48 4 307,135,195.03 5.03 5 6,106,577,794.18 100.00 8.2 1 - - - - 2 - - - - 20% 20% 8.3 8.3.1 64 72 26 180 180 8.3.2 % % 1 30 25.56-397 1.15-34
2 30 () 60 14.09-397 2.97-3 60 () 90 41.76-397 - - 4 90 () 180 16.47-397 - - 5 180 () 397 2.13-397 - - 100.01-8.4 1 - - 2 3,747,707,578.25 61.46 3 912,429,276.96 14.96 912,429,276.96 14.96 4 - - 5 - - 6 - - 7 4,660,136,855.21 76.42 8 397 251,253,441.84 4.12 8.5 () 1 0801034 08 34 5,600,000 555,805,897.29 9.11 2 0801025 08 25 5,500,000 547,324,722.54 8.98 3 0801031 08 31 5,100,000 506,613,153.33 8.31 4 0801028 08 28 5,000,000 496,917,271.63 8.15 5 0801049 08 49 3,500,000 348,277,513.03 5.71 6 0801019 08 19 3,300,000 328,963,440.08 5.39 7 040220 04 20 2,600,000 260,539,960.46 4.27 8 0801046 08 46 2,600,000 258,305,971.87 4.24 9 0801037 08 37 2,000,000 199,036,949.59 3.26 35
10 070413 07 13 1,800,000 180,999,086.64 2.97 8.6 0.25()-0.5% 17 0.3184% -0.0531% 0.0602% 8.7 8.8 8.8.1 8.8.2 397 397 20% 8.8.3 8.8.4 1-2 298,887,385.00 3 8,247,810.03 4-5 - 6-7 - 8 307,135,195.03 8.8.5 36
9 9.1 2007 12 31 A B () () 8,089 68,895.99 21,602,471.64 3.88% 535,697,203.20 96.12% 77 58,997,216.35 4,464,288,217.52 98.27% 78,497,441.18 1.73% 2008 12 31 A 9,315 70,734.63 23,574,804.84 3.58% 635,318,270.35 96.42% B 113 48,134,968.35 5,265,757,317.38 96.81% 173,494,105.64 3.19% 9.2 10 A B 2005 4 13 577,965,478.90 413,395,043.83 557,299,674.84 4,542,785,658.70 17,315,251,856.96 27,077,286,033.01 17,213,658,456.61 26,180,820,268.69 - - - 658,893,075.19 5,439,251,423.02 11 11.1 11.2 37
2008 11 12 90 2008613 11.3 11.4 11.5 2007 90,000 4 11.6 11.7 1 59,772,900,000.00 100% 100,000.00 100% () 11.8 0.5% 0.5% 11.9 1. 2008 1 30 38
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. "" "" 2008 3 17 2008 4 25 2008 5 28 2008 6 2 2008 11 12 12 1.2008 5 27 2005 6 17 2. 2008 9 23 3. 2008 11 17 4. 2008 12 2 13 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. www.51fund.com 39