T_ReportDate 2010 2010 V 2010 GDP GDP 2010 25-30% 20-25%30-35% ROE 20092010 37002700 2009-12-16 (%) 30 90 300 5.49 18.41 6.03 15.92 50 3.38 15.63 180 4.88 17.23 7.38 20.53 9.21 25.42 (%) 1 A ROE(%) T_Analyst 021-68766193 chengdh@essences.com.cn 021-68766135 zhangzhi@essences.com.cn 021-68766170 zhuhb@essences.com.cn 021-68765053 fanyan@essences.com.cn T_RelatedReport 2009 10 12 2009 9 4 2009 8 10 2009 7 6 2009 6 1 2009 4 8
1. V V 1-2 20 90 ( 1) ( 234) 1 GDP (%) Bloomberg 2 GDP (%) Bloomberg 3 GDP (%) 2
Bloomberg 4 GDP (%) Bloomberg 1999 5 1994 6 2001 7 5 GDP (%) CEIC 6 GDP (%) Bloomberg 7 GDP (%) 3
Bloomberg (2009 6 1 ) GDP 2009 ( 89)( 1011) ( 12) 8 GDP(%) 9 (%) 10 (%) 11 PPI(%) 12 OECD (%) 4
OECD 2010 7080 GDP 1990 ( 13) 13 GDP (%) 14 GDP (%) CEIC CEIC GDP 1997 ( 14) GDP V ( 15) ( 16) 15 GDP (%) 16 GDP (%) 5
CEIC CEIC 30 GDP V ( 1718) 17 GDP (%) 18 GDP (%) 2008 GDP 50% 2009 2010 GDP GDP 2007 10% 2. : GDP ( 19) 19 (%) 6
Wind PPI ( 20) 2004 40-50%( 21) PPI 2010 35%( 22) 20 *PPI (%) 21 /(%) 22 (%), 2010 25-30%( ) 20-25% 30-35%( 1) 1A 2008 2009 2009 2010 17.07 17.00 16.40 20.00-0.17 2.03-20.00 45.45 25.00 46.65 25.00 37.65 13.00 34.93 35.00 7
100.00 21.80 100.00 27.80 2010 ROE ( 23) 23 A ROE(%) Wind 2008 ROE 2007 ( 24) ( 25) 2008 GDP ( 26) 24 (1993=100) Wind 25 (%) 26 Wind Wind 8
3. 2009 2005-2007 ( 27) 27 (%) 282930 28 M1 M2 (%) 29 (%) 30 (%) 9
Wind 2010 ( 2) 2010 8 11.5% 13600 2000 2010 8 2010 8 8 2() 1 2 3 10% 10% 10% 8% 10% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0% 1% 1% 2010 10.50% 11.50% 11.50% 973,875 1,362,373 1,362,373 2008 2010 8 1,364,689 1,364,689 1,447,333 (09-10 ) 34.00% 772,398 34.00% 772,398 21.00% 855,042 12 2008 3 25% (09-10 ) 252,491 550 1000 (09-10 ) 339,800 2400 1000 390,814 2,316 84,960 2010 8 2010 GDP 7 15 ( 31) 31 GDP (%) GDP A 2H19992H20034Q2007( 34) 10
4. 2005-2007 9 ( 32) 32 () ( 33 2009 11 3 ) 33 () CEIC 349 Libor 34 Libor (%) 11
Bloomberg ( 35) 35 (%) Bloomberg 361970 40 40% 2007 60% 36 (%) Fed ( 37-39) 500 2010 2007 12
37 Bloomberg 38 ISM 4 Bloomberg ISM 20%80% 39 Bloomberg 2005-2007 200-2007 2009 2010 ( 40) 40 13
CEIC 2010 A 16-22PE 2700-3700 5. 5.1. 2010 5.1.1. 41 2004 41 (%) CEIC ( 42) 42 (%) 14
CEIC 5.1.2. 2004 ( 43) 2005 ( 44) 29 (%) 30 (%) CEIC CEIC 5.1.3. 2000 ( 45) 45 (%) CEIC 5.1.4. 15
2000 ( 46) 2005 1 2005 2008 46 () CEIC 5.1.5. 2010 ( 4748) ( 49) 47 (%) Wind 48 (%) Wind 49 (%) CEIC 5.2. 16
V ( 50) 50 () CEIC ( 5152) OECD ( 53) 2010 51 () Bloomberg 52 Bloomberg 53 OECD (%) 17
OECD 5.3. 2010 ( 5455) 54 () 55 () 5.4. ( 56) 56 300 (%) 18
Wind 5.5. 2010 6. 3 3 1.37 2.05 4.37 4.37 10.50 8.40 3.42 5.13 3.85 1.93 3.51 5.27 4.53 4.53 1.45 2.90 3.68 2.95 1.65 1.65 1.45 2.90 3.68 3.68 1.07 1.07 1.03 0.50 4.21 4.21 3.75 1.875 5.34 6.41 6.24 6.24 27.71 27.71 3.07 4.35 0.45 0.615 2.73 1.36 0.97 0.00 2009 12 4 19
T_AuthorInfo 2007 4 CFA2007 4 2007 5 2008 9 T_Sales 021-67865293 zhuxian@essence.com.cn 021-68765237 lingjie@essence.com.cn 021-68766067 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 010-66581676 zhourong@essence.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essence.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essence.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 20