28 1 2010 3 : 1006-7639 (2010) - 01-0096 - 06 Journal of A rid M eteorology Vol. 28 No. 1 March, 2010,,,, (, 050081) : 2008, 3, 10 a 2008 12 3 5 3 T213 ( EC),, : T213 EC, T213, : ; ; : P458. 1 + 22 : A,,, [ 1-7 ] [ 8 ] [ 9 ] 2008, 2008 12 3 5 ( : 081203 ) 12 20 22 ( : 081220 ) 2009 1 22 23 ( : 090122 ) 3,, 3 4,, 10%, 10 a, 500 hpa 850 hpa EC T213 3, 1 1. 1, [ 10 ] : 5 ; 24 h 6, 48 h 8 ; 24 h 8, 48 h 10,,, 17 1. 2 081203,, 3 4 4, 5-7. 1-12. 3 081220, 20 21 6, 21-8. 5-11. 3, 22-9. 1-16. 2, 21 22 090122 : 2009-08 - 10; : 2010-01 - 11 : (1958 - ),,,.. E - mail: wlr_wzy@163. com 96 Journal of A rid M eteorology, 2010, 28 ( 1) : 96-101
1 : 97,,, 21 16. 5 ; 22 23 8, 22 1. 3, 23-3. 5 ; 23-10. 3-13. 8 :, 22 24 h 15. 2, 23 48 h 20. 0 16. 2 3,, 1,, 3, : 1 1 d, 2 2 d;, 090122, 081203, 081220, 2008 ( - 10. 6 ) 1 3 Tab. 1 The meteorological elements during three cold wave p rocesses in Shijiazhuang meteorological station 081203 081220 090122 24 h / 9. 4 (5 ) 8. 7 (21 ) 7. 8 (23 ) 48 h / 10. 8 (5 ) 10. 0 (22 ) 9. 8 (23 ) / - 7. 6 (5 ) - 9. 3 (21 ) - 10. 6 (22 ) - 2. 5 (22 ) - 10. 3 (23 ) / 6. 0 (5 24h) 9. 0 (5 48 h) 6. 9 (21 24 h) 8. 8 (22 24 h) 7. 4 (23 24 h) 16. 2 (23 48 h) 24 h /hpa 16. 2 (4 24 h) 20. 5 (21 24 h) 10. 9 (23 24 h) 48 h /hpa 19. 4 (4 48 h) 27. 5 (21 48 h) 26. 7 (23 48 h) 3 4 4 20 21 6 22 5 ; 23 3, : 2008 11 28 12 1, 15 ; 2008 12 16 16. 1, 12 13. 3 ; 2009 1 21 16. 5, 17 15, 3 08 1 035 1 050 hpa, 24 h 10 hpa, 48 h 20 hpa 1. 3 2, :,,, : 090122, ( 23 ) - 3. 5, 24 4. 3, 8,, ; 35 50 N 90 100 E, > 1 060 hpa;, 500 hpa, - 47-52 ; 850 hpa, - 32-39 ;, 2 2. 1 500 hpa 1 500 hpa, EC T213, 500 hpa 1 1, 100 E, 3 090122 ;, 3 : 081203 ; 081220 ; 090122, 50 N,, 090122 Journal of A rid M eteorology, 2010, 28 ( 1) : 96-101 97
98 2 3 Tab. 2 The characteristic values on the outbreak day of three cold wave p rocesses 08. 12. 03 08. 12. 20 09. 01. 22 500 hpa / (58 N, 79 E) /552 hpa 500 hpa / (63 N, 118 E) /496 hpa (51 N, 109 E) /502 hpa (47 N, 120 E) /504 hpa 500 hpa - 47-52 - 47 28 / (37 N, 97 E) /1065. 5 hpa (45 N, 96 E) /1062. 0 hpa (50 N, 92 E) /1069. 6 hpa 850 hpa / (62 N, 115 E) / - 39 (53 N, 108 E) / - 32 (50 N, 108 E) / - 32, 081203 65 N, 120 E, 500 hpa, EC T213 504 hpa, ; EC, T213 4 081220 090122 48 N, 114 E, 508 hpa, EC,, T213, 504 hpa 3, :, EC T213 ;, 4 hpa EC T213 500 hpa ( ) : EC T213 T213 T213, 98 Journal of A rid M eteorology, 2010, 28 ( 1) : 96-101
1 : 99 2. 2 2, 3 : (1) 40 60 N, 60 120 E,, ; ( 2), 2 2 ( 1) Fig. 2 The surface synop tic charts before the cold wave outbreaks ( same as Fig. 1, but for surface synop tic situation),, 2 1 1. 5, 3, 2 2 2. 5 ; (3) 3, 081203, 090122 2, 2 1, 3 2 EC T213, 081203 090122 2,, 3 10 hpa; 081220 EC,, 4 hpa, T213 EC T213 ( ) : 2. 3 850 hpa 2. 3. 1 (38 N, 114. 5 E), 3 5 20 EC T213 850 hpa (37. 5 N, 112. 5 E) (37. 5 N, 115. 0 E) (40. 0 N, 112. 5 E) (40. 0 N, 115. 0 E) 4, T213 (37. 0 39. 0 N, 113. 0 116. 0 E) 12 850 hpa, 2 850 hpa,, 3,, 850 hpa - 15, 24 h 11 3 5 d 2 3 850 hpa 3, 081203 EC, 081220 T213 EC, 090122 T213 EC 850 hpa 2. 3. 2 4, 081203, - 36 ; 40 N, 2 / 081220, - 32 ;, 2. 8 / Journal of A rid M eteorology, 2010, 28 ( 1) : 96-101 99
100 3 3 5 d 850 hpa 24 h Tab. 3 The 850 hpa forecast temperature of five days average before the three cold wave outbreaks and 24 hours temperature drop 08. 12. 03 08. 12. 20 09. 01. 22 EC T213 EC T213 EC T213 850 hpa / - 16. 5-18. 1-20. 5-20. 9-21. 2-20. 5 24 h / 22. 5 23. 4 11. 3 16. 1 22. 1 21. 5 28 3 5 d 3 850 hpa 3 Fig. 3 The difference between the forecast and reality of average temperature (polylines) and the average anomaly values of 5 days before the three cold wave outbreaks ( columnar) at 850 hpa 090122, - 32 ; 37 45 N,, 3 / 1 : 850 hpa,,, 2 : 2, 2. 4 081203 500 hpa,,, 2,,, 081220 500 hpa 40 N,,,,,,, 090122 500 hpa 40 N,, 2,,, 4 850 hpa ( 1) Fig. 4 The temperature fields at 850 hpa before the cold wave outbreaks ( the same as Fig. 1) 100 Journal of A rid M eteorology, 2010, 28 ( 1) : 96-101
1 : 101, T213 EC,, T213 EC, T213 ( 6 h),, 081203, EC 08 20 3, ; T213, 4 02,, 3 (1),, (2) T213 EC,, (3) 3 : 500 hpa, 508 hpa, - 47 ; 850 hpa 500 hpa 1, - 32 ;, > 2 / ; 850 hpa - 15, 24 h 11 (4) T213 EC, T213, 2, 2, T213 2009 2 13, T639, T213,, : [ 1 ],,,. [ J ]., 2004, 22 (1) : 49-52. [ 2 ],,. 2001. 4. 9 [ J ]., 2002, 28 (3) : 54-55, 65. [ 3 ],,. [ J ]., 2009, 27 (2) : 142-147. [ 4 ],,,. [ J ]., 2008, 31 (1) : 60-65. [ 5 ],,,. [ J ]., 2009, 27 (1) : 34-39. [ 6 ]. 2 [ J ]., 2004 (2) : 4-6. [ 7 ],,,. [ J ]., 1999, 17 (4) : 6-9, 16. [ 8 ],. 46 [ J ]., 2007, 31 (6) : 1266-1276. [ 9 ],. 53 [ J ]., 2006, 30 (6) : 1068-1075. [ 10 ]. [M ]. :, 1987. 40-79. Foreca sting Capab ility Test of Cold W ave Process by Num er ica lw ea ther Pred iction Products ZHANG B ingxiang, WANG L irong, YANG Rongzhen, YAN Ruishu, SU Yuntao ( Shijiazhuang M eteorological B ureau of Hebei P rovince, Shijiazhuang 050081, China) Abstract: Three wide range cold waves occurred in winter of 2008 in Hebei Province, which were the most in the past 10 years, espe2 cially the cold wave appeared from 3 to 5 December 2008 was serious at the same period in the history. In this paper, the observed and forecasted by numerical p rediction p roducts including T213 and EC were compared from the atmospheric circulation features, intensity and moving path of the cold air and weather elements, etc. in order to test the capability of forecasting cold wave based on different nu2 merical weather p rediction p roducts, and offer more forecasting reference in future. The results suggest that both T213 and EC can fore2 cast the typ ical characteristics of cold wave outbreak, but T213 has a higher temporal and spatial resolution, and would be more help in imp roving refined cold wave weather forecast. Key words: numerical p rediction p roducts; cold wave forecast; capability test Journal of A rid M eteorology, 2010, 28 ( 1) : 96-101 101