bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats bp.com.cn/energyoutlook2017
BP 1
4 9 23 45 46 50 54 58 63 2
70 72 76 82 86 88 90 92 95 3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 10
11
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 18 15 12 9 0% 6-1% -2% 3-3% 1965-1975 1975-1985 1985-1995 1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 12 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
13
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 50% 40% 30% 20% 4 2 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 14 10% 0% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 15
8 7 6 5 4 3 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 2 40 1 20 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 16
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 17
50% 10 8 40% 6 Coal 30% 4 2 Hydro Gas Renew. 20% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 18
19
40 2.5% 30 2.0% 1.5% 20 10 1.0% 0.5% 0 0.0% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1995-2015 2015-2035 20
21
22
23
110 105 100 95 90 85 80 24
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 25
120 2.0 100 80 60 40 1.5 1.0 0.5 20 0.0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 26-0.5 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 27
40% 30% 3.0 2.5 2.0 20% 1.5 1.0 10% 0.5 0.0 0% 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035-0.5 1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 28
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 29
1.6 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.4-0.2 0.2-0.4 0.0 1995-2015 2015-2035 -0.6 30
31
140 500 120 100 400 80 60 40 300 200 20 100 0 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 32
33
60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 34
35
5 4 3 LNG Russian pipeline 2 1.5 1.0 0.5 1 Conventional 0.0 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035-0.5 1965-1975 1985-1995 2005-2015 2025-2035 36
37
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400-600 1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 -200-400 -600 1995-2005 2005-2015 2015-2025 2025-2035 38
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 39
40% 40% 30% 30% 1995-2015 20% 20% 2015-2035 10% 10% 0% 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 40 0%
41
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2015 2025 2035 2015 2025 2035 42
43
44
45
2.0 250 1.5 200 1.0 0.5 150 100 50 0.0 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 46
47
45 40 35 30 23 17 25 20 0.2 1.2 15 10 5 19 23 0 48
49
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2015-2035 2015-2050 50
51
70 60 50 65% 60% 40 55% 30 50% 20 45% 10 0 40% 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 52
53
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 54
55
5 22 17 9 44 2 7 17 17 56
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 57
10% 8% 5% 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 3% 0.2 0.1 0% 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 0.0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 58
59
140 120 100 80 60 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 40 30% 20 0 20% 10% -20 1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2035 60 0% 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
61
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63
300 200 15.0% 1.5 1.0 100 7.9% 0.5 0-100 -0.9% -200-300 -5.6% -0.2% -1.9% -2.5% 64 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-3.7% CO₂ (RHS)
65
5 4 400 300 200 GDP 3 100 2 1 0-100 -200-300 Fuel mix Base case growth 0 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035-400 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 66
67
10% 10% 5% 5% GDP 0% 0% -5% -10% -15% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030-5% -10% Fuel mix Base case growth -15% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 68
69
70
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 71
15 10 5 15 10 5 0 0-5 -5-10 -10-15 0 100 200 300 400 500 72-15 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
73
25 25 20 20 15 15 74
75
40 8 30 7 20 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 76
77
50% 40% 30% 20% 250 200 150 100 50 0 10% -50-100 CO2 0% 2035 78-150 2015-2035
79
80
81
2.0% 1.5% 40% 35% 30% 1.0% 25% 0.5% 20% 15% 0.0% 10% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 82
83
90% 20 60% 15 Coal 30% 10 5 0% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 0 84
85
86
Base case: Fuel by fuel detail 87
120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 88
89
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1975 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 90
91
55% 50% 100% 80% 60% Coal 45% 40% Gas 40% 20% Hydro Renew. 35% 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 0% 1995-2015 2015-2035 2035-2050 92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 水电和其他可再生能源 1.0% 核能 0.8% 0.6% 煤炭 0.4% 0.2% 天然气 0.0% -0.2% 石油 100
101
IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2016, Paris, France, November 2016 EIA: US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2016, Washington, D.C., United States, May 2016 MIT: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2016 Food, Water, Energy and Climate Outlook, Cambridge, MA, United States, 2016 IEEJ: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016, Tokyo, Japan, October 2016 IHS: IHS Energy, Rivalry: the IHS Planning Scenario, July 2016 PIRA: PIRA Energy Group, Scenario Planning Guidebook, Appendix, February 2016 XOM: ExxonMobil, 2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, December 2016 CNPC: CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, Energy Outlook 2050, 2016 Greenpeace, Energy Revolution, September 2015 BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2016 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2016 UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, New York, United States, 2016 102
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