2004 15% 500 7-8 70 10 1 40% 60% 2002 / 1
2004...1...1...2...3...3...3...4...5...6...6...7...8...10...12...13...15...17...18...20...21...23...24...25...25...26 1
2004...27...28...31...33...35...36...39...40...40...41...43...45...46...47...49...50...52...53...55...56...57...57...58...60...61...62 2
2004...63...63...65...67...68...68...68...70...72...74...77 3
2004 1.1...2 1.2...4 2.1 2002...11 3.1 8...19 5.1...27 5.2 3...28 5.3 3...28 5.4 5 10...29 5.5...31 5.6...31 5.7...34 6.1...36 6.2...39 7.1 30...41 7.2 2002...44 8.1 %...47 10.1...55 10.2...56 11.1 2002...58 11.2 2002...60 13.1 2003 5...70 4
2004 2.1 GDP...7 2.2...8 2.3...9 2.4...10 4.1 %...22 4.2 %...22 5.1...26 5.2...27 5.3...30 5.4...30 10.1 GDP...54 10.2 GDP...55 10.3 GDP...56 12.1...63 12.2...64 12.3 3...65 12.4 3...65 12.5...67 5
2004 6
2004 1
2004 1.1 / / / / / 2
2004 3
2004 1.2 4
2004 5
2004 GDP 2002 6
2004 GDP 1985 GDP 1985 2.1 GDP % 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002-10 -20 GDP 2001 7
2004 1998 6348 2002 9791 13.5% 1998 319 2002 1007 54% 700 6 21.6% 42.2% 2.2 1200 1000 1007 800 600 400 319 426 563 695 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002 8.78 2001 12% 2001 10.1% 2002 740 442 8
2004 2.3 1000 500 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 9
2004 (Time Sensitive Cargo) (Time Insensitive Cargo) (Courier Service) 1990 1990 37 2002 202 1990 8.22 2002 51.55 1996 2.4 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2002 10 6 10
2004 2.1 2002 2001 % 27 Shanghai Pudong China 80.1 136 Brasilia Brazil 76.7 111 Macau China 46.2 130 Moscow Vnukovo Russia 45.9 6 *Seoul Incheon Korea 43.2 115 Xiamen China 37.5 59 Shenzhen China 36.5 98 Ho Chin Minh Vietnam 29.8 135 Bangalore India 29.3 1 Memphis USA 28.8 73 Istanbul Turkey 24.6 21 Dubai UAE 24.2 105 San Antonio USA 22.7 122 **Calgary Canada 21.9 166 Recife Brazil 21.4 82 Nairobi Kenya 21 183 Burbank USA 20.9 144 Greensboro N.C. USA 20 175 Vitoria Spain 20 Airports Council International 11
2004 12
2004 2001 4 2002 3 3 ( [2002]6 ) 6 2002 10 23 ( ) () ( ) 2003 23 () () 13
2004 (1999 2001 ) 2005 2003-05 14
2004 2002 8 1 25% 1994 49% 35% 25% 25% 2 15
2004 3 16
2004 11 [ ] FAA 17
2004 1995 2002 650 1992 87 70 59 1980 / 1991 300 000 1998 420 000 80% 2003 5 8 18
2004 3.1 8 ( ) ( ) 19
2004 40 2005 150 2002 143 GDP ( ) 20
2004 20 21
2004 2002 0.1% 2002 1268.7 8.9% 4.1 % % 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978 1985 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 4.2 % 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 22
2004 2004 4 18 160 200 160 7700 2020 10 50% 3 1.2 2002 3000 5000 23
2004 1.6 2005 2.5 2010 3.5 2.2 24
2004 2002 141 2002 6 40% 60% 25
2004 50 70 20 70 1979 1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 122.09 60.87 16 27 1996-2000 17 35 2001 14 2002 141 5.1 160 140 120 100 80 60 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 26
2004 2002 1.71 401.83 211.7 2001 15.2% 18.4% 9.08% 6 5.1 2002 1.71. 401.83 211.7 2001 15.2% 18.4% 9.08% 6 9.7% 10.3% 10.7% 5.2 2500000 2000000 万次 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 27
2004 2002 141 17137.3 401. 8 211. 7 2001 15.2% 18.4% 9.1% 5.2 3 2002 2001 2000 1000 4 3 3 500-1000 4 5 4 100-500 23 20 21 50-100 12 14 11 10-50 24 23 24 5-10 14 13 15 1-5 49 54 44 1 11 11 17 5.3 3 % 2002 2001 2000 50 2 2 2 20-50 4 4 3 10-20 2 2 2 5-10 7 7 6 1-5 20 20 22 0.5-1 8 8 8 0.1-0.5 16 16 13 0.1 82 84 83 7-8 500 70 10 1 10 5 10 5 28
2004 1/3 45% 60% 10 50% 60% 75% 5.4 5 10 5 10 2002 45.1% 62.0% 34.1% 62.0% 74.7% 50.2% 2001 44.7% 60.8% 33.0% 61.8% 73.7% 48.3% 2000 43.8% 60.1% 31.6% 61.0% 73.0% 47.5% 1999 47.8% 60.8% 34.1% 62.3% 72.8% 47.5% 1998 47.1% 59.2% 33.1% 61.5% 71.9% 46.2% 1997 46.5% 57.0% 33.0% 61.1% 70.0% 45.9% 1996 45.9% 57.2% 37.8% 60.3% 69.6% 52.9% 2002 40% 60% 1996-2002 29
2004 5.3 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0 10 20 30 40 50 5.4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 30
2004 2002 141 1 123 18 139 130 9 2 5.5 % 4E B747 23 12 4D B767/B757/MD82 36 19 4C B737 40 21 3C B737 27 14 17 9 143 74 30 16 20 10 193 100 : 2002 5.6 1 800 A 5 4.5 2 800 1200 B 5 24 4.5 6 3 1200 1800 C 24 36 6 9 4 1800 D 36 52 9 14 % % E 52 60 9 14 1 % 2002 31
2004 4C 4C 4D 4.92 8.99 2.2 3800 32
2004 1 35% 1993 5% 2% 2 3 3 4 33
2004 2001 143 16 88.8% 127 8 8-9 2003 6 12 38 12 9 6 38 37 5.7 2 2.5 3 7.5 8.4 9.4 47.6 57.1 61.4 2 50 2002 143 50 98 98 50 34
2004 2002 35
2004 2002 9 1994 128 1995 240 6.1 1992 1995. 50 55 25 4 25 100 5 100 200 7 200 8 851 100 558 9X T 50 101 200 1008 10X T 100 200 2008 12X T 200 T 23 20% 10% 4 4 24 10% 24 24 15% 1 T 30 390 30 T 45 585 45 T 65 845 65 13 / 14 / 50 50 36
2004 125 10 125 200 20 200 400 30 400 40 2 40 30% 1 2 1 8 10 45 10 50 40 20 40 40 150 60 150 80 35 35 50 15 100% 1 6 2 5 50 0 20 50 100 0 30 100 0 40 25 4 25 100 5 100 200 7 200 8 37
2004 38
2004 2002 9 1 2002 179 25 4 / 16.9 / 4 2 2 24 15% 2 24 24 15 / 30 6.2 25 4.4 16.9 26-100 5.5 22.0 101-200 7.7 29.7 201 8.8 33.8 737-500 61 80% 65% 19% 15% 2 2 39
2004 40
2004 2002 30 35% 7.1 30 41
2004 2002 2001 1 Atlanta ATL 76,876,128 1 Atlanta Hartsfield ATL 75,849,375 2 Chicago O Hare ORD 66,565,952 2 Chicago O Hare ORD 66,805,339 3 London Heathrow LHR 63,338,641 3 Los Angeles LAX 61,024,541 4 Tokyo Haneda HND 61,079,478 4 London Heathrow LHR 60,743,154 5 Los Angeles LAX 56,223,843 5 Tokyo Haneda HND 58,692,688 6 Dallas/Ft Worth DFW 52,828,573 6 Dallas/Ft Worth DFW 55,150,689 7 Frankfurt FRA 48,450,357 7 Frankfurt FRA 48,559,980 8 Paris Charles de Gaulle CDG 48,350,172 8 Paris Charles de Gaulle CDG 47,996,223 9 Amsterdam Schiphol AMS 40,736,009 9 Amsterdam Schiphol AMS 39,538,483 10 Denver DEN 35,651,098 10 Denver DEN 36,086,751 11 Phoenix Sky Harbor PHX 35,547,167 11 Phoenix Sky Harbor PHX 35,481,950 12 Las Vegas McCarran LAS 35,009,011 12 Las Vegas McCarran LAS 35,195,675 13 Madrid Barajas MAD 33,913,456 13 Minneapolis/St Paul MSP 35,170,528 14 Houston Intercontinental IAH 33,905,253 14 Houston Intercontinental IAH 34,794,868 15 Hong Kong HKG 33,882,463 15 San Francisco SFO 34,626,668 16 Minneapolis/St Paul MSP 32,628,331 16 Madrid Barajas MAD 33,984,413 17 Detroit Metro DTW 32,477,694 17 Hong Kong HKG 32,553,000 18 Bangkok BKK 32,182,980 18 Detroit Metro DTW 32,294,121 19 San Francisco SFO 31,456,422 19 Miami MIA 31,668,450 20 Miami MIA 30,060,241 20 London Gatwick LGW 31,182,361 21 New York John F Kennedy JFK 29,943,084 21 Bangkok BKK 30,623,764 22 London Gatwick LGW 29,628,423 22 Newark EWR 30,500,000 23 Newark EWR 29,202,654 23 24 Singapore SIN 28,979,344 24 New York John F Kennedy JFK 29,400,000 Orlando International MCO 28,166,612 25 Tokyo Narita NRT 28,883,606 25 Singapore SIN 28,093,759 26 Beijing PEK 27,159,665 26 Toronto Pearson YYZ 28,042,692 27 Seattle-Tacoma SEA 26,690,843 27 Seattle-Tacoma SEA 27,036,074 28 Orlando International MCO 26,653,672 28 St Louis Lambert STL 26,719,022 29 Toronto Pearson YYZ 25,930,363 29 Rome Fiumicino FCO 25,563,927 30 St Louis Lambert STL 25,626,114 30 Tokyo Narita NRT 25,379,370 Airports Council International 42
2004 ( ) ( ) 2002 2003 43
2004 7.2 2002 % 2 Hong Kong (HKG) 2,516,441 19.9 4 Tokyo Narita (NRT) 2,001,824 19.1 6 Seoul (ICN) 1,705,880 43.2 7 Singapore (SIN) 1,660,404 8.5 13 Taipei (TPE) 1,380,748 16 17 Bangkok (BKK) 957,176 13.7 20 Osaka (KIX) 805,432 7.5 23 Tokyo Haneda (HND) 707,074 2.6 25 Beijing (PEK) 668,733 14.4 27 ShanghaiPudong (PUG) 634,966 80.1 29 Guangzhou (CAN) 592,554 11.5 31 KualaLumpur (KUL) 523,133 17.3 36 Shanghai Honqiao (SHA) 439,905 2.7 39 Manila (MNL) 386,508 8.3 53 Jakarta (CGK) 313,399 8.6 57 Jeju (CJU) 294,438 1.7 59 Shenzhen (SZX) 288,534 36.5 63 Seoul Gimpo (GMP) 257,927 56.9 74 Chengdu (CTU) 204,329 14.6 75 Penang (PEN) 197,897 12 Tokyo Haneda Hong Kong Bangkok Singapore Tokyo Narita 44
2004 45
2004 1 2 3 46
2004 8.1 % 59.46 18.02 22.52 54.49 37.37 8.14 47.62 26.1 26.29 45.12 30.68 24.2 42.86 21.9 35.24 40.07 17.55 42.38 39.32 34.6 26.08 38.95 26.4 34.65 38.71 25.68 35.61 38.04 32.53 29.43 37.29 22.4 40.32 37.28 24.12 38.6 35.73 43.88 20.38 35 16.67 48.33 30.98 43.92 25.1 41.39 28.12 30.48 47
2004 1988-2008 58% 36% 42% 64% (BAA) 1998-1999 29% 98% 74% 48
2004 1997 49
2004 1997 (StarAlliance) (OneWorld) (WINGS) (SkyTeam) (Qualiflyer) 11000 8500 1998 1.5% 2000 1996 10 7 (1 7 ) 3 2002 Oneworld 10 seamless travel 5 17 4 7 3 3 Pantares 50
2004 51
2004 6 6 2000 8 2001 10 25% 60% 4 4 30 2 25% 35% 40% A 20% 10 20% 52
2004 GDP 8.5% 14.6% 13.7% 53
2004 1987 1987 100 GDP 1987 GDP 10.1 GDP 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1987 1988 GDP 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 54
2004 LN(GDP ) LN( )=1.5713* LN(GDP )-2.6108 10.2 GDP LN( ) 7 6.5 6 5.5 y = 1.5713x - 2.6108 R 2 = 0.9618 5 4.5 4 LN(GDP ) 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 2002 2003 GDP 8% 9.1% 2004 2005 2006 8.5% 10.1 GDP 2003 ( 2004 ( 2005 ( 2006 ( % % ) 8 12.85 21593 24368 27499 31033 8.2 13.18 24439 27660 31306 8.5 13.67 24545 27900 31714 8.8 14.17 24653 28146 32134 9 14.5 24724 28309 32414 ) ) ) 55
2004 LN( )=1.6725* LN(GDP )-3.1697 10.3 GDP LN( 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 y = 1.6725x - 3.1697 R 2 = 0.9848 4.5 4 4 4.5 LN(GDP 5 ) 5.5 6 10.2 GDP 2003 2004 2005 2006 % % 8 13.7 5115348 5816150 6612963 7518939 8.2 14.1 5836049 6658290 7596376 8.5 14.6 5863155 6720284 7702716 8.8 15.15 5890292 6782636 7810165 9 15.5 5908227 6824002 7881722 GDP 56
2004 20 cepa 57
2004 14 2002 23836 22.7% 20 2002 11.1 2002 3 % 3 13667094 439904.7 117875 4 11047695 634965.7 107335 11 3879259 86734.2 44912 16 3170346 52197.7 37776 22 1913201 28386.9 25747 28 1265057 18660.7 16325 52 301909 1888.2 5148 60 148848 2339.5 2232 62 134338 2368.1 2178 63 129394 1605.7 1830 73 68712 945.8 1587 89 35341 415.4 1446 90 35143 0 398 101 28035 0 390 107 22142 342.2 588 116 16196 0 220 122 12297 0 164 124 11750 0 160 137 2612 14.4 76 138 2526 9.9 47 % 35891895 1270779 366434 % % 20.9 31.6 17.3 3 58
2004 15 3 2 7 1 4 59
2004 14 2.68 5 5 11.2 2002 % 33451466 2478822 206707 4170000 111268 % 16014411 496880 147740 9352662 288644 106718 744110 8160 23260 % 63732649 3383774 484425 2 5 1.4 200 5 CEPA 5 60
2004 2002 15.8% 15.6% 2002 170 3800 35 2007 61
2004 62
2004 A 600009 000089 600897 600004 0694 0357 2002 2716 2464 12.1 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 1732 1819 1371 1433 515 525 2169 1768 642 2417 2066 778 2716 2464 932 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 63
2004 12.2 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 131.2 80.4 75.2 70.8 66.9 62.8 57.2 55.7 59.1 51.1 33 24.7 20.3 15.5 11.4 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002 1998 30% 2002 0694 4 30% 40% 64
2004 12.3 3 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 12.4 3 0.32 0.3 0.28 0.26 0.24 2000 2001 2002 2002 30% 2002 7 23% 14% 2.87 16.32% 38.62% 2 110% 0.16 65
2004 66
2004 / 2001 24.89% 37% 52% 45.7% 12.5 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 A % 0 20 40 60 80 100 67
2004 2003 11694 GDP 9.1%2002 8% GDP 1 1090 3 GDP 8.5% GDP 1.57 1.67 68
2004 69
2004 9 11 3 7.7% 11.4% 15% 9 11 25% 13% 8% 8% 2003 100 2003 2003 5 40.6% 155 76% 13.1 2003 5-37% -33% -10% -11% -25% 10% 70
2004 71
2004 2002 193 17% 2002 92 17.3% 16 2002 2.5-3 3-5 15% GDP 8.5% 7-8 500 70 10 1 10 / 72
2004 1997 2003 73
2004 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. = { } = 2001 90 7. = { } 8. = + + 9. 74
2004 10. = { } 11. 12. 13. = [ ] 14. 15. 5% 10% 2% 4-6% 16. = / 17. = / 75
2004 18. = / 19. = / 20. = / 21. = / 22. = / 23. = / 76
2004 % % % 2000 IATA 6 23 45 77
2004 %% % IATA IATA IATA IATA useorlose 78
2004 %% IATA 79
2004 80
2004 1998 2002 Air Bus For the full Global Market Forecast 2001-2020 www.cninfo.com.cn 81