T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract : T_PricingInfo 20.00 22.00 23.00 25.00 2009-12-14 T_IPOInfo 7,700 2,600 520 2,080 2009-12-18 T_ShareInfo T_Analyst 54.14% 29.34% 5.45% 5.01% 1.98%.48%.45%.40%.33%.27% 021-68765110 zhaoml@essence.com.cn 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 590.2 680.8 824.1 1,066.9 1,407.6 Growth(%) 40.8% 15.3% 21.1% 29.5% 31.9% 58.4 65.7 82.8 101.3 127.2 Growth(%) 72.8% 12.7% 26.0% 22.3% 25.6% (%) 37.5% 45.0% 45.4% 45.7% 46.5% (%) 9.9% 9.7% 10.1% 9.5% 9.0% () 0.76 0.85 0.80 0.98 1.24 () 2.22 2.87 6.83 7.62 8.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - (%) 34.2% 29.7% 11.8% 12.9% 14.4% ROIC(%) 48.8% 39.8% 39.7% 41.5% 46.0% EV/EBITDA - - - - - 1
1. 1.1. 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 2006 2007 2008 1H2009 0% 2006 2007 2008 1H2009 2
1.2. 2. 3
3. 3.1. 3.2. 4
3.3. 5
2006 2007 2008 1H2009 194.77 1.22 177.54 0.60 179.41 0.91 188.32 0.43 50.07 1.33 47.78 1.19 53.09 1.13 48.86 0.67 59.33 1.31 81.80 0.86 88.09 0.98 83.28 0.54 139.33 0.32 133.55 0.40 158.54 0.33 133.17 0.16 56.85 0.53 62.31 0.60 66.72 0.56 62.01 0.29 109.92 0.36 105.61 0.45 120.46 0.38 104.61 0.19 96.48 0.52 98.12 0.55 110.22 0.53 98.94 0.27 4. 1 12,184.20 12,184.20 24 2 10,472.80 10,472.80 11 3 5,139.10 5,139.10 11 4 ERP 3,000.00 3,000.00 12 5 5,000.00 5,000.00 35,796.10 35,796.10 6
5. 5.1. 5.2. 7
5.3. 6. 6.1. 6.2. 8
EPS PE 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E 002269 SZ 0.50 0.66 0.93 44.58 33.77 23.97 002154 SZ 0.67 0.88 1.14 32.46 24.72 19.08 002029 SZ 0.72 0.85 1.05 30.04 25.45 20.60 002293 SZ 0.97 1.08 1.23 42.42 38.10 33.46 A 0.72 0.87 1.09 37.38 30.51 24.28 6.3. 9
T_FSAndVS 2009-12-14 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 590.2 680.8 824.1 1,066.9 1,407.6 369.1 374.5 450.0 579.3 753.1 40.8% 15.3% 21.1% 29.5% 31.9% 2.1 1.7 2.5 3.2 4.2 68.4% 27.7% 30.1% 25.4% 29.0% 120.8 171.9 222.5 298.7 408.2 72.8% 12.7% 26.0% 22.3% 25.6% 28.8 44.4 45.3 58.7 77.4 EBITDA 68.3% 26.6% 14.3% 21.6% 28.2% 6.0 6.9-2.3-5.9-6.8 EBIT 71.4% 26.6% 17.3% 22.4% 29.6% 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.9 NOPLAT 75.9% 12.7% 11.6% 19.3% 26.3% - - - - - 38.2% 12.0% 14.1% 13.9% 12.3% - - - - - 48.0% 29.5% 218.0% 11.5% 13.0% 63.1 80.6 104.9 131.5 169.6-0.0-1.4 - - - 37.5% 45.0% 45.4% 45.7% 46.5% 63.1 79.2 104.9 131.5 169.6 10.7% 11.8% 12.7% 12.3% 12.1% 4.7 13.4 22.0 30.3 42.4 9.9% 9.7% 10.1% 9.5% 9.0% 58.4 65.7 82.8 101.3 127.2 EBITDA/ 13.1% 14.4% 13.6% 12.8% 12.4% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 11.7% 12.8% 12.4% 11.8% 11.6% 79.0 78.5 516.4 565.0 634.1 - - - - - 40 49 46 44 39 36.5 32.1 40.6 52.6 69.4 15 19 22 20 18 - - - - - 149 161 249 293 260 8.2 4.8 0.3-5.5-13.0 15 15 13 12 12 145.8 219.1 246.5 317.4 412.6 82 96 102 95 93 3.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 230 246 325 359 316 - - - - - 96 102 96 84 72 - - - - - - - - - - ROE 34.2% 29.7% 11.8% 12.9% 14.4% - - - - - ROA 13.5% 13.2% 8.4% 8.9% 9.6% 92.9 93.9 118.0 140.7 161.9 ROIC 48.8% 39.8% 39.7% 41.5% 46.0% 5.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 53.2 51.3 48.0 44.9 42.0 20.5% 25.3% 27.0% 28.0% 29.0% 7.0 14.7 16.0 19.0 19.0 4.9% 6.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 431.2 497.9 989.5 1,137.8 1,329.7 1.0% 1.0% -0.3% -0.6% -0.5% 41.5 25.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 / 26.4% 32.8% 32.2% 32.9% 34.0% 72.8 104.5 127.0 163.5 212.5 60.0 72.8 87.5 112.7 146.5 60.4% 55.6% 28.9% 31.0% 33.3% 36.6 33.4 39.1 44.6 51.9 152.4% 125.1% 40.7% 45.0% 50.0% 40.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 1.24 1.36 3.14 2.88 2.67 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.58 0.47 2.18 1.90 1.67 260.4 276.7 286.0 353.3 443.4 11.50 12.72-45.23-21.23-23.95 - - - - - 77.0 77.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 DPS() - 0.20 0.16 0.20 0.25 93.8 144.2 600.5 681.5 783.3 0.0% 23.4% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 170.8 221.2 703.5 784.5 886.3 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 58.4 65.7 82.8 101.3 127.2 EPS() 0.76 0.85 0.80 0.98 1.24 9.7 12.8 9.3 10.5 11.7 BVPS() 2.22 2.87 6.83 7.62 8.60 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.9 PE(X) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - PB(X) - - - - - 3.5 5.0 5.3-2.3-5.9 P/FCF - - - - - - - - - - P/S - - - - - 0.1 - - - - EV/EBITDA - - - - - -25.6-15.8 9.2-14.2-16.2 CAGR(%) 20.1% 24.6% 26.2% 50.6 67.1 100.4 93.0 117.8 PEG - - - - - -45.7-11.7-30.1-30.1-30.1 ROIC/WACC 11.1 9.1 9.0 9.4 10.5 29.8-55.9 386.7-14.3-18.6 REP - - - - - Wind.NET 10
T_AuthorInfo T_Sales 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 021-67865293 zhuxian@essence.com.cn 021-68765237 lingjie@essence.com.cn 021-68766067 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 010-66581676 zhourong@essence.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essence.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essence.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 11