2 1,2014) , ,, , (2005), ( ),, ;,, ; Mol(2014),,,,

3 1 ChinaJournalofEconomics Vol.3,No.11-31 March2016 1 2 3,,,,,, ;,,,,, ; ; DOI10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20160318.001 0, (, 2005;,2010;,2010), (,2011; 1 (71525006) (14ZDB144) (12AZD047) (71173048) 2,,E-mailshiyichen@fudan.edu.cn 3 ( ),,E-mail13110680005@fudan.edu.cn

2 1,2014) 1 1998 2007, 1 1998 2003,,2007 1998, (2005), ( ),, ;,, ; Mol(2014),,,,

3 1, 3 ;, Mol(2014),,,, 1, ; 2, ; 3 ; 4, 2, ; 5, ; 1,,, (2005) (DEA), (,2007;, 2008),Arestisetal. (2006) (2012) (2010) (DEA), Méonand Weil(2010) (SFA), (2004) Liang(2006) GDP GDP (2004), Liang(2006), GuarigliaandPoncet(2008) GDP GDP,, (2009) (2007) (2005),,,

4, (2010) GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, (,2015;,2012), Mol(2010), (,, ),, MidriganandXu(2014), ;,,,Mol(2014) MidriganandXu(2014), ;, ( ),,,,,,,

3 1, 5,,, ( ),,, ;,, ;,,, ;,,, 2 2.1 Mol(2014) MidriganandXu(2014), φ a ; φ a t ft( φ ) gt(a), t ht( φ,a);,, ;, e -ρt log(ct)dt (1) 0, ρ,ct t yt = ( φ tkt) α n 1-α t (2),α (0,1),kt t,nt t, t πt = ( φ tkt) α n 1-α t -wtnt - (rt +δt)kt (3) wt,rt δt Kiyotakiand Moore(1997) Mol(2014) MidriganandXu(2014),

6 kt η tat η t 1 (4) (4),kt t,at t at kt,, η,, η, η +, ;, η =1,,, π t * ( φ,a)= Max {( k t,n t φ tkt) α nt 1-α -wtnt - (rt +δt)k s.t. kt ηat} (5), ( ), at =π * t ( φ t,at)-ct +rtat (6), (1),, Mol(2014), 2.2 (, ) Max π = ( k,n φ k) α n 1-α -wn- (r+δ)k (7) k ηa k 0,l 0, φ 0 (8) L = ( φ k) α n 1-α -wn- (r+δ)k+μ ( ηa-k) (9), Kuhn-Tucker, dl dk =α φ ( φk) α-1 n 1-α - (r+δ+μ ) 0, k 0 dl dn = (1-α)( φ k) α n -α -w 0, n 0 dl dμ = ηα-k 0, μ 0 dl dk k =0 (10) dl dn n =0 (11) dl dμ μ =0 (12) Mol(2014),

3 1, (10)~(12) ( A ) k * 烄 = η a φ >φ 烅烆 0 (13) n * 烄 = φ[( 1-α)/w] 1/α ηa φ >φ 烅烆 0 (14) (13) (14) (3) π * = Max{ φ [w/(1-α)] (1-α )/αηa- (r+δ) η a,0} (15) 2.3 ( ) 1, ( ) U * = Max c e -ρt log(c)dt s.t. a =π * ( { 0 φ,a)-c+ ra (16) } c c = ( dπ* φ,a) da +r- ρ (17) ( ) (17) π * ( φ,a) a, (6), c a, a c c=θ1+θ2a, (6) (17) c=ρa (18) (18) (6) a =π* ( φ,a)-ρa+ra (19) (15) π * ( φ,a) φ, (19) 1 ( ) a φ, a/ φ>0,, 2.4 TFP Φt t, (13) (14) 7 1, 0,, 0

8, 1 φ Φt = φ 1 ah t ( 0 K t φ,a)d [ a α 熿 ] dφ 燄 = α 熿 φ ωt( φ )dφ 燄 φ = E ω [ φ φ φ 1 ]α ah t ( K t φ,a)d 燀 a d φ 1-Ξt( φ 燅燀 ) 燅 φ [ 0 ] (20),ωt( φ )= (1/K t )ah t ( 0 φ,a)da, φ,ξt( φ )= 0ωt( φ φ )dφ, ( 13) (14) η [1-Ξt( t φ )]=1 (21) (21) η ( ),1-Ξt( φ ) ; (20), 1-Ξt( φ ),Φt ;, η,φt, (20) (21) 2 Φ η, Φ/ η>0; η, Φ η,, 2 ωt( φ ) η Φ ωt( φ ), ωt( φ ) ( ) 1, a/ φ>0,,,,,, ( ), φ i(t)=φ, i i TFP 1,, ( t + ), φ珔, ω( φ 珔 ) =1, 0,, (20) Φ= φ珔 α, Φ Mol(2014) 1 Mol(2014)

3 1, 9,,,Mol(2014),,,, Φ= 珔 φ α, 3, ;, (20), Φ, η 1 η t = Kt (22) K t -D t,k ;,D,, (22) D ( ), η ( ) 3 TFP (1) TFP, TFP ;(2) TFP,, TFP (1), TFP it =α0 +α1 FinancialCons it +Θ X it +u i +μ it (23),i ( );t ;TFP it ; FinancialCons it, FinancialCons it ;X it ;u i, ; μ it FinancialCons it, (1), FinancialCons it α1 1

10 (2), (23) TFP it =β 0 + β 1 FinancialCons it +β 2 Persistent it +β 3 Cross it + Λ X it +u i +μ (24) it TFP it FinancialCons it X it u i μ it (23) Persistent it,cross it FinancialCons it Persistent it, Cross it=financialcons it Persistent it, (2),Cross it β 3 (24), FinancialCons it TFP it β 1+ β 3 Persistent it, Persistent it, ( Persistent it ), (24) TFP it =β 0 +γ1 FinancialCons it +β 2 Persistent it +β 3 Cross * it + Λ X it +u i +μ it (25),Cross it * =FinancialCons it (Persistent it-persistent it ), (24), FinancialCons it ^γ1 Persistent it, (, Cross it * (23), (24), γ1 =β 1 + β 3 Persistent it ),^γ1, Persistent it (24) β 1 β 3 β 1 +β 3 Persistent it,, (25), 4 4.1 1998 2007 30 ( )

3 1, 11, ( 500 ), ( ) 60 ; ( )GDP GDP CPI,,, (,2012), CaiandLiu(2009) ; 1000 1000 30 ; 0 0 0 ; 0.5% 0.5%,, Brandtetal.(2012), 1 1 Brandtet al.(2012) Brandtetal. (2012), 1,, 1998 81% 2007 90%, ( 1998 165118 1997 336768 ), 9% 1,,, ( ) ;,,, A, C C B, A B C ;, 1998 2007

12 1 Brandtetal.(2012) Brandtetal.(2012) Brandtetal.(2012) 1999 80.85% 80.6% 4.24% 4.1% 85.09% 84.7% 2000 82.48% 81.9% 2.44% 2.4% 84.92% 84.3% 2001 73.80% 73.8% 4.64% 4.6% 78.44% 78.3% 2002 84.83% 84.5% 3.00% 2.9% 87.83% 87.3% 2003 82.64% 82.5% 4.49% 4.0% 87.13% 86.6% 2004 73.34% 73.5% 8.31% 8.0% 81.65% 81.5% 2005 83.20% 82.2% 1.85% 1.7% 84.05% 84.1% 2006 90.13% 90.1% 1.60% 1.5% 91.73% 91.6% 2007 90.46% 1.25% 91.71% 4.2 TFP it (20), TFP it φ (OLS) OP (OleyandPakes,1996) LP (LevinsohnandPetrin,2003), (2005) (SFA) OLS (,2014),,,, OleyandPakes(1996), OP, 65.25%;, LevinsohnandPetrin(2003),,, LevinsohnandPetrin(2003) (, 0.82% ),, LP,OP (,,2013;,2015),

3 1, 13 (,,2013;,2013), OP (2012), = - + 1,, ;,,,,,, Brandtetal.(2012), 2 Yasarand Raciborski(2008),, 1,, (20),,, ( ), ( ) 5% 3,, α LP OP φ ( 20), ( ) ( ) α, 1 LP ( )α, LP 0.42, LP 0, 1 (2008) = - + - + 2 3, 10%

14 ( 847 ); φ ( 20), HsiehandKlenow(2009) BrandtandZhu(2009) α 0.5, (20) K t,a, (23)~(25) TFP it 2 LP, (20),, 2,,, (20), ( ),,, LP OP 1.53%,3.24%,3.54%, (2015) 1,, 2 1 (2015) OP 3.83%

3 1, 15 4.3 FinancialCons it,,,,, (22), η =K/(K-D),, K/(K-D) η,, (22),, ( 1978, 1978 ),, PerkinsandRawski(2008), ( ), PerkinsandRawski(2008),, 1,, 1 100, (22) η, η 3 1998 2007 η, η 4.98 5.35, 5.2, 1998 5.35 2007 5.01, 3 1 Brandtetal.(2012), 9%

16, ;, η,, -η 3 η, GDP (,2005;,2010),, GDP 4.4 Persistent it, AR(1), φ t=c+ρφ, ( ) t-1+εt ^ρ ( ) 1 ^ρ,, ( )^ρ, ( ),, 1 Mol(2014)

3 1, 17, AR(1) Mol(2014),,, ( ),, ( 90% ),,, (23)~(25) X, GDP (FDI), ( ), (2008) (2006); GDP (FiscalExp); (HumanCap) (PhisycalCap), (,2008;,2008) 2 2 TFP LP TFP OP TFP Labor FiniancialCons Persistent AR Persistent 2Period Cross1 Cross2 HumanCap PhsicalCap FDI FiscalExp LP OP 90% 90% GDP GDP

18 5 5.1,, ;, ; ;,,,, 3~ 5 (23)~(25),, LP, 3 (23) 3 (1) (2), 3, 1%, (2005) (2010) (2010),,,HumanCap, 4 (24), (1) (2) AR(1) ; (3) (4) 90%, AR(1), ( ), (24), 4 (1) (2) 4, 1%,,, (1) (2),

3 1, 19 ( 1 ),,, (3) (4),, ( ), ( ) 3 (23) TFP LP (1) (2) FiniancialCons HumanCap PhsicalCap FDI FiscalExp Cons -0.2325 *** -0.1767 *** (0.0370) (0.0318) 0.0170 *** (0.0053) -0.0767 (0.2541) 1.2508 (1.8736) 0.1958 (0.8911) 1.2649 *** 1.3481 *** (0.1920) (0.1964) N 280 243 adj.r 2 0.0394 0.0443,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 4 (24) TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) FiniancialCons Cross1 Cross2 Persistent 2Period -0.8205-1.4390 ** -0.6420 *** -0.4946 *** (0.7358) (0.6538) (0.0638) (0.0528) 0.6840 1.4648 * (0.8548) (0.7578) 1.0297 *** 0.8018 *** (0.1578) (0.1374) 4.8071 *** 3.5756 *** (0.8310) (0.7123)

20 TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) HumanCap PhsicalCap FDI FiscalExp Cons 0.0199 ** 0.0096 * (0.0055) (0.0055) -0.0771-0.0732 (0.2524) (0.2345) 1.1875-1.4313 (1.8618) (1.7365) 0.2941 0.8983 (0.8868) (0.8167) 1.2420 *** 1.2239 *** -0.6158 * 0.0371 (0.1943) (0.2055) (0.3414) (0.2892) N 280 243 252 216 adj.r 2 0.0381 0.0565 0.2500 0.2646,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1) (2) AR(1) ;(3) (4) 90% 5 (25) TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) FiniancialCons Cross1 Cross2 Persistent 2Period HumanCap PhsicalCap FDI FiscalExp Cons -0.2387 *** -0.1932 *** -0.1682 *** -0.1257 *** (0.0378) (0.0328) (0.0399) (0.0358) 0.6840 1.4648 * (0.8548) (0.7578) 1.0297 *** 0.8018 *** (0.1578) (0.1374) 4.8071 *** 3.5756 *** (0.8310) (0.7123) 0.0199 ** 0.0096 * (0.0055) (0.0055) -0.0771-0.0732 (0.2524) (0.2345) 1.1875-1.4313 (1.8618) (1.7365) 0.2941 0.8983 (0.8868) (0.8167) 1.2420 *** 1.2239 *** -0.6158 * 0.0371 (0.1943) (0.2055) (0.3414) (0.2892)

3 1, 21 TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) N 280 243 252 216 adj.r 2 0.0381 0.0565 0.2961 0.2646,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p < 0.01 (1) (2) AR(1) ;(3) (4) 90% 5 (25), (1)~ (4) 4 (25), FiniancialCons,,,,,,,, (70% ),,, 6 6 70% TFP LP (1) (2) FiniancialCons Cross Persistent 2Period Humancap PhsicalCap FDI -0.3610 *** -0.2909 *** (0.1029) (0.0802) 0.1266 0.1109 (0.2311) (0.1833) 1.2288 0.8215 (1.1318) (0.8910) 0.0160 *** (0.0059) 0.0330 (0.2597) 0.9304 (1.8395)

22 TFP LP (1) (2) Fiscalexp cons -0.3284 (0.8665) 0.3146 0.7084 * (0.5227) (0.4144) N 252 216 adj.r 2 0.1209 0.1284,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 5.2,,,,, (2005), (23)~(25),, (23)~(25), 7~9 7 (1) (2) 4, 8 9 (1)~(4) 4 5 (1)~(4) 7~9,,, ; ( 8, );,, GDP, (24) 1, 10 10,, ( 1,

3 1, 23 ), ( ), 7 (23) ( ) TFP LP (1) (2) FiniancialCons HumanCap PhsicalCap FDI FiscalExp Cons -0.1970 *** -0.1896 *** (0.0301) (0.0329) 0.0177 *** (0.0058) -0.1037 (0.2572) 1.9348 (1.8498) -0.0706 (0.8707) 1.4742 *** 1.3167 *** (0.1567) (0.2025) N 252 216 adj.r 2 0.0555 0.0531,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 8 (24) ( ) TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) FiniancialCons Cross1 Cross2 Persistent 2Period HumanCap PhsicalCap -0.7966-1.4022 ** -0.4164 *** -0.3415 *** (0.6098) (0.6824) (0.0522) (0.0567) 0.6967 1.4048 * (0.7078) (0.7909) 0.6488 *** 0.4827 *** (0.1291) (0.1474) 3.4714 *** 2.5288 *** (0.6795) (0.7734) 0.0202 *** 0.0117 * (0.0060) (0.0059) -0.1025-0.1371 (0.2557) (0.2517)

24 FDI FiscalExp Cons TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) 1.8647 0.4720 (1.8395) (1.8634) 0.0538 0.6391 (0.8685) (0.8764) 1.4464 *** 1.1959 *** 0.2981 0.5053 (0.1592) (0.2091) (0.2791) (0.3104) N 252 216 252 216 adj.r 2 0.0554 0.0641 0.1495 0.1002,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1) (2) AR(1) ;(3) (4) 90% 9 (25) ( ) TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) FiniancialCons Cross1 Cross2 Persistent 2Period -0.2039 *** -0.2053 *** -0.1179 *** -0.1194 *** (0.0309) (0.0338) (0.0326) (0.0384) 0.6967 1.4048 * (0.7078) (0.7909) 0.6488 *** 0.4827 *** (0.1291) (0.1474) 3.4714 *** 2.6011 *** (0.6795) (0.7644) HumanCap PhsicalCap FDI FiscalExp Cons 0.0202 *** 0.0117 * (0.0060) (0.0059) -0.1025-0.1371 (0.2557) (0.2517) 1.8647 0.4720 (1.8395) (1.8634) 0.0538 0.6391 (0.8685) (0.8764) 1.4464 *** 1.1959 *** 0.2981 0.5053 (0.1592) (0.2091) (0.2791) (0.3104) N 252 216 252 216 adj.r 2 0.0554 0.0641 0.1495 0.1002,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1) (2) AR(1) ;(3) (4) 90%

3 1, 25 10 (24) TFP LP (1) (2) (3) (4) FiniancialCons Cross1 Cross2 Persistent 2Period HumanCap PhsicalCap FDI FiscalExp Cons -0.23956-0.3527-0.0440-0.0451 (2.2624) (1.9749) (0.0972) (0.0791) 2.7577 0.3923 (2.6097) (2.2788) 0.1086 0.1697 (0.2528) (0.2348) 0.0464 0.1841 (0.7703) (0.6754) 0.0129 *** 0.0156 * (0.0058) (0.0071) -0.3308-0.3003 (0.2742) (0.2955) 1.2058 1.4405 (2.0383) (2.1138) 1.3409 0.8444 (1.0475) (1.0814) 2.3597 *** 2.1317 *** 2.4382 *** 2.1990 *** (0.1351) (0.2134) (0.3179) (0.3129) N 275 239 248 213,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1) (2) AR (1) ;(3) (4) 90% LP,, OP (,, 2013;,2015), (,,2013;,2013),, LP, LP OP, 1%,,,

26,, 5%, (20), 10%,,, (23)~(25),, 1 6,,,,,,, ;,,,,, 1, LP,

3 1, 27 ( ), (,2005); 1 3,1998 2007 10,,,,,, k>0 n>0 μ >0, (12), μ >0,k=ηα; (11), n>0,n=φ [( 1-α)/w] 1/ α k( φ,a); (10), k>0,αφ ( φk) α-1 n 1-α =(r+δ+μ ), n= φ [( 1-α)/w] 1/ α k( φ,a) αφ [( 1-α)/w] (1-α )/α =r+δ+μ (1) μ >0, (1), r+δ φ α [(1-α)/w] (1-α )/α =φ (2), φ φ, k=ηα l=φ [( 1-α)/w] 1/ αηa (10)~ (12) k=0,n=0 μ =0, (12), μ =0,Kuhn-Tucker dl/dμ 0, k=0, ; n=0,kuhn-tucker dl/dn 0, n=0, ; k=0,kuhn-tucker dl/dk 0, k=0 μ =0,k=0 n=0 (10)~(12), 6, Kuhn-Tucker 1, (10)~(12) k * 烄 = η a φ >φ 烅烆 0 n * 烄 = φ[( 1-α)/w] 1/α ηa 烅烆 0 φ >φ (3) (4) 1 6 k=0 n=0 μ >0,k=0 n>0 μ >0,k>0 n=0 μ >0,k>0 n>0 μ = 0,k=0 n>0 μ =0 k>0 n=0 μ =0

28 1 ( ) (LP ) 11 0.3972 0.0613 41 0.4016 0.0105 12 0.5951 0.0233 42 0.3809 0.0348 13 0.3162 0.0510 43 0.2406 0.0171 14 0.5362 0.0947 44 0.3251 0.0088 15 0.4219 0.0555 45 0.5644 0.0504 21 0.3870 0.0544 46 0.7055 0.0214 23 0.3570 0.0076 51 0.3793 0.0318 31 0.6546 0.1156 52 0.4075 0.0080 32 0.3606 0.0110 53 0.4846 0.2952 33 0.4074 0.0301 54 0.0000 0.1210 34 0.3580 0.0465 61 0.4010 0.0261 35 0.3010 0.0285 63 0.8789 0.1368 36 0.3384 0.0212 64 0.3640 0.0378 37 0.2697 0.0138 65 0.4788 0.1953,,.2015. [R]..,.2014. [J].,(9)53-76.,.2011. [J].,(5)61-73.,.2013. [J].,(6)85-99.,.2008. [J].,(9)31-45.,.2008. (2000 2004)[J]. ( ),(3)843-869.,.2004. [J]., (1)42-55.,.2014. [J].,(10) 77-103.,.2013. [J].,(4)16-29.

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3 1, 31 FinancialConstraints,StabilityofFirms Productivity andtheaggregatetfp ShiyiChen,DengkeChen (Schoolof Economics,Fudan University) Abstract Financialconstraintsaresupposedtobeoneofthe mostimportant factorsthatinfluence macro-economyproductivity.usingeconomicstheory,this paperderivesthestructuralexpressionsoffinancialconstraintsand macro-economy productivity.based on this, weinvestigate the relationship between financial constraints and macro-economy productivity from theoretical and empirical perspectives.moreover,thispaperisthefirstonethatexaminestheroleofthe persistenceoffirms productivityintheprocessoffinancialconstraintsinfluencing China s macro-economy productivity. The results suggest while the financial constraintssignificantlyreducechina s macro-economyproductivity,thenegative efectsoffinancialconstraintsonchina smacro-economyproductivitydecreasewith theincreaseofthepersistenceoffirms productivity.besides,theresultsalsoimply that,onaverage,thepersistenceoffirms productivityisnotstrongenoughtoofset the negative influences of financial constraints on China s macro-economy productivity.thefindingsaboveprovidesnewideasforreducingthenegativeefects offinancialconstraintsonchina smacro-economyproductivity,thatis,apartfrom aleviatingfinancialconstraints,thegovernmentcanraisethepersistenceoffirms productivitytolessenthenegativeefectsbycreatingstablebusinessenvironmentfor firms. JELClasification O47,G31,C23