T_RankInfo T_ReportDate T_Graph T_ReportAbstract 2010 TDIPVC -A 2009 2010 TDI PVC 09 201010%15% TDI09 TDI5TDI PVC 2010 PVC 30%3 CDM -A -A -A -A -A -A 2009-12-03 600409 13 -A 002092 22.25 -A 002064 22.5 -A 600230 34 -A 600872 17.6 -A 600478 23 -A 600481 26.25 -A 600309 25 -A 002165 29.4 -A 12 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 2009-11-27 2009-11-05 2009-10-26 1
1. 1.1. 10 34183 6121.7 9.9% 6.6 3569.1 21.2% 9.3 696.1 16.6% 7.1 1715.7 5.1% 3.9 10 70 9 12.7% 62 87.3% 10% 73.2% 1625.5 1.8% 71.9 10.2% 3328.6 10.4% 2003.4 9.4% 100.4 100 19%551.3 20.8% 16.9 26.8% 5902.3 19.5% 29.7% 9.6% 17% 23.4%52.5% 41.7% 1.2. 2010 10 87.4% 84.6% 81% 78.6% 58% 53% 71.2% 88% 10 332.8 7.6% 6.9 110 2918.5 19.8% 1.1 2431.18 19.3% 26.6% 20.9% 38.8% 33.3% 6.4% 10 110 7699.5 10.7% 19 0.9 1488.6 885.4 14.9% 14.4% 5145.2 66.8% 26.6% 19 1.4 2. 2.1. 2009 110 5126.03 16.73% 3814.02 11.03% 8207.93 4.22% 2
3449.1 17.1% 1132.7 29.8% 908.2 19.8% 816.5 9.7% 301.5 3.5%ABS 290.2 3.8% 1 2 2009 10 131.09 78.56%110 1089.14 37.71% 110 223.6 5.4% 5.4 14.5% 3
3 2.2. PEPPPSABS 4 4
5 6 5
7 2.3. 2196 1.9% 568 6.3% 593 7.3% 671 6.4% 3449.1 17.1% 1132.7 29.8% 908.2 19.8% 816.5 9.7% 301.5 3.5%ABS 290.2 3.8% 8 6
9 10 3. 2010 TDI PVC 3.1. 3.1.1. 2009 09 09 10 08 25 7
11 09 09 10 43.44% 62.58%, 10 15.7510 37.97 90 7080 60 12 8
13 3.1.2. 2010 2010 10%15% 14 CEIC 2010 09 10%15% 3.1.3. 3.1.3.1. 90 1000 9
15 3.1.3.2. 2010 09/10 57.8% 49.8% 8 10 02-04 02-04 2001 NYBOT 2001 11 30 / 2003 11 82 / 2009 16 Bloomberg 5.4 / 7 / 16000 / 2010 20,000 / 10
17 USDA 3.1.3.3. 07 4329 20000 07 19500 18 3.1.4. 3.1.4.1. 08 V 09 90%09 15 2010 60000 / 11
19 % 3.1.4.2. 2001 2.51 2008 31.21 43.34% 60% / 2007 77.48% 20072008 2007 9.5 / 2009 4 / 09 3 0.8 0.7 1.2 65000 / 2010 2010 5000 2011 2010 20 % 1 2008 2009 HYOSUNG 38700 INVISTA 36400 6000 42000 12000 12
30000 22000 20000 11500 8500 12000 3.1.4.3. 3-4 GDP 06 07-08 1 60000 / 09 40D 48000 / 7500 / 18% 40D 60000 / 18000 / 35% 21 / 22 / 3.1.5. 3.1.5.1. 13
27 39.87% PVC 3.1.5.2. 08-09 2 4.2 14% 99% 2 2009 8 1.2 3.2 2.634 2007 2006 2.5 4300 2010 5000 1000 3.2. TDI 3.2.1. 09 TDI 2010 23 14
3.2.2. TDI 09 7 TDI 22500 / 29000 / 9 TDI 2010 2010 TDI 3.2.3. TDI 5 2008 11 21 2009 11 21 2009 11 21 2003 11 22 TDI 5 16 TDI 25 2010 TDI TDI TDI 2 3 TDI 3.2.4. TDI TDI 08 5 53000 09 3 18800 TDI 15
24 TDI 3.2.5. TDI TDI 08 25000 5800 25 TDI 3.2.6. TDI TDI 5 TDI 2009 8 31 TDI 3 8 1.5 6.5 2010 5 TDI 40 2010 3.3. 3.3.1. 10 PVC 2010 16
26 % 3.3.2. 3.3.2.1. 3 6mm 8mm 2008 2 8 27 % 3.3.2.2. 3 6mm 8mm 17
28 26 1.05 5300 2010 29 3.3.2.3. 09 85 18
30 31 3.3.2.4. 2010 08 100 50 2010 19
32 33 08 3.3.3. PVC 3.3.3.1. PVC 2009 PVC 70 PVC 20
34 PVC 3.3.3.2. PVC PVC 35 PVC 3.3.3.3. PVC PVC PVC 21
36 37 PVC 38 PVC 08 22
3.3.3.4. PVC PVC PVC 3.3.4. 2010 4. 4.1. 4.1.1. 11 25 2020 2005 40 45 "" 4.1.2. 11 12 7 12 18 6 2010 4.1.3. 12 4.1.4. 4.2. 4.2.1. 4.2.2. 23
50% 10% 25% 15% 2010 50% 30% 3 4.2.3. EPSXPSPU 50 EPS XPS,PU 39 4.2.4. 10 23 24
4.2.4.1. 4.2.5. 2070 C 4.3. 4.3.1. 2005 2008 1263.5 2007 630 100.6%2008 CDM 65 2007 74 ()2008 CDM 262 2007 54 2008 CDM 327 2007 128 CDM 4.3.2. 1/3 2 2012 50 70% 30 CDM 4.3.3. 4.3.3.1. ( CCS) CO 2 CCS CO 2 CO 2, CO 2 CO 2 : CO 2, CO 2 CO 2, CO 2,, CO 2 25
4.3.3.2.,,, CO2, CO2 CO2, CO 4 EOR) ECBM) ( CO2 2 : CO2, 1000m, CO2 3000m, CO2, CO2 CO2, CO2,, CO2 CO2,(MgO)(CaO),, CO2 (MgCO3)(CaCO3,),,, CO2,, 4.3.3.3. 1575 / 525 /,,, 10, 20% 30%, 26
2530 / CO2, 5 CO 2 (/) 15--75 5--25 5--115 0.5--8 2--6 1.2--3 5--10 6--31 12--16 50--100 0.1--0.3 1--8 4.3.3.4. 2008 7 3000 10 2009 3 100 CO2 4.3.4. CDM CDM CDM 4.4. 4.4.1. 4.4.1.1. 2010 27
2010 20% 3.6 4.4.1.2. 4.4.1.3. 28
T_ReportAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo PU 10065% 6 PU 40% 40%~65% 59 20%2 4 PU20095 PUMDI MDI PU PUPU -A 5.271.82.3 0.50.7520092010EPS0.730.98 20103029.4-A T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 736.5 889.9 821.0 1,149.6 1,496.4 Growth(%) 32.5% 20.8% -7.7% 40.0% 30.2% 55.8 67.0 115.5 154.5 188.1 Growth(%) 80.3% 20.1% 72.3% 33.8% 21.7% (%) 19.7% 17.4% 25.2% 25.1% 25.5% (%) 7.6% 7.5% 14.1% 13.4% 12.6% () 0.35 0.43 0.73 0.98 1.19 () 2.63 2.94 3.59 4.42 5.41 77.9 64.9 37.6 28.1 23.1 10.5 9.4 7.7 6.2 5.1 (%) 14.4% 15.6% 22.2% 24.0% 23.9% ROIC(%) 32.1% 13.9% 19.7% 26.7% 25.2% EV/EBITDA 21.0 29.2 25.3 19.7 15.3 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% T_RankInfo -A -A 29.40 6 29.40 29.17 2009-12-03 T_MarketInfo () 4,594.28 () 2,438.61 () 157.50 () 83.60 12 / 10.00/29.58 (%) 57.00% 11,032 12 % 11.33 28.99 179.50 15.85 46.65 263.40 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 2009-11-04 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 736.5 889.9 821.0 1,149.6 1,496.4 591.4 734.7 614.1 860.7 1,114.3 32.5% 20.8% -7.7% 40.0% 30.2% 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.9 5.0 98.7% 3.8% 72.3% 33.8% 33.1% 15.1 16.8 16.3 22.8 29.7 80.3% 20.1% 72.3% 33.8% 21.7% 29.8 34.1 36.7 51.5 67.0 EBITDA 58.3% 4.7% 55.2% 30.8% 30.6% 10.7 12.1 3.9 5.6 7.5 EBIT 73.5% 4.8% 55.5% 33.9% 33.1% 1.5 1.1-5.5 1.0 1.0 NOPLAT 61.3% 20.3% 52.1% 33.9% 21.8% - - - - - 177.3% 7.4% -0.9% 28.8% 25.4% - - - - - 176.4% 11.8% 22.0% 23.3% 22.4% 85.4 88.7 152.7 204.3 271.8 0.7 1.4 - - - 19.7% 17.4% 25.2% 25.1% 25.5% 86.1 90.1 152.7 204.3 271.8 11.6% 10.0% 18.6% 17.8% 18.2% 26.6 17.7 27.5 36.8 68.0 7.6% 7.5% 14.1% 13.4% 12.6% 55.8 67.0 115.5 154.5 188.1 EBITDA/ 14.7% 12.7% 21.4% 20.0% 20.1% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 13.0% 11.3% 19.1% 18.3% 18.7% 214.9 188.9 122.4 135.0 169.6 - - - - - 59 50 68 57 43 76.2 84.5 158.8 222.3 289.4 129 186 186 151 166 69.3 98.5 88.9 124.4 162.0 177 191 210 191 202 30.2 11.2 65.9 142.7 242.1 30 34 53 59 61 102.0 60.2 72.9 102.2 132.3 46 33 29 27 28 0.0 7.1-1.1-12.6-27.5 250 260 311 273 263 - - - - - 202 254 284 231 225 - - - - - - - - - - ROE 14.4% 15.6% 22.2% 24.0% 23.9% - - - - - ROA 9.3% 11.3% 16.2% 17.3% 16.8% 120.5 127.2 183.8 180.6 174.7 ROIC 32.1% 13.9% 19.7% 26.7% 25.2% 0.5 0.8 18.2 14.1 12.0 23.3 62.7 60.6 58.6 56.6 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.3 2.1 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.0% 3.8% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 641.1 643.2 773.3 970.6 1,214.8 1.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 110.0 100.0 120.0 153.8 208.9 / 7.5% 7.1% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 43.0 36.7 42.3 59.3 76.8 30.3 11.1 34.1 47.8 61.9 35.3% 28.0% 26.9% 28.2% 29.8% 12.5 26.0 20.1 21.4 23.1 54.6% 38.8% 36.8% 39.3% 42.5% - - - - - 2.18 2.59 2.51 2.66 2.72 0.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 1.73 2.24 2.15 2.28 2.34 226.5 179.8 208.1 273.9 362.2 8.99 8.34 39.72 37.75 37.04 11.2 15.4 24.2 35.9 50.1 75.0 112.5 157.5 157.5 157.5 DPS() - 0.14 0.22 0.29 0.36 328.4 335.5 383.5 503.3 645.0 0.0% 33.6% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 414.7 463.4 565.2 696.7 852.7 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 59.5 72.4 115.5 154.5 188.1 EPS() 0.35 0.43 0.73 0.98 1.19 12.0 12.5 19.0 19.9 20.7 BVPS() 2.63 2.94 3.59 4.42 5.41 1.5 1.1-5.5 1.0 1.0 PE(X) 77.9 64.9 37.6 28.1 23.1 - - - - - PB(X) 10.5 9.4 7.7 6.2 5.1 12.0 8.3 14.0 3.9 5.6 P/FCF -14.1-247.4 30.7 1,638.5 135.4 - - - - - P/S 5.9 4.9 5.3 3.8 2.9 3.7 5.3 9.7 13.0 15.8 EV/EBITDA 21.0 29.2 25.3 19.7 15.3-128.4-5.1-96.3-161.7-186.0 CAGR(%) 41.2% 41.2% 27.4% -100.0% -100.0% -46.6 96.6 46.4 32.3 47.1 PEG 1.9 1.6 1.4-0.3-0.2-35.6-44.9-91.0-11.0-11.0 ROIC/WACC 2.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.3 221.0-77.7-18.6-18.1-8.9 REP 1.3 4.0 3.8 2.2 1.9 Wind.NET 2
T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract 100 100093.05 39.87% 16 902010 10 2010 80722000 19500 20030PVC. PVC2010 20090.14 20100.65 A 201020PE 13 T_RankInfo -A -A 13.00 6 9.60 9.75 2009-12-09 T_MarketInfo () 9,156.58 () 9,156.58 () 939.14 () 939.14 12 / 3.26/10.34 (%) 59.50% 89,442 12 % 26.34 37.30 62.78 30.01 50.73 140.35 T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3,874.3 5,084.2 3,965.7 9,450.9 11,813.6 Growth(%) 47.5% 31.2% -22.0% 138.3% 25.0% 370.0 232.2 146.9 716.6 881.4 Growth(%) 110.1% -36.3% -36.6% 366.0% 28.8% (%) 10.5% 5.3% 14.4% 19.3% 19.3% (%) 8.4% 4.1% 3.3% 6.4% 6.6% () 0.34 0.22 0.14 0.65 0.84 () 1.94 2.88 3.59 4.10 4.73 27.8 43.7 68.8 14.8 11.5 4.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0 (%) 20.3% 8.6% 4.4% 18.6% 19.8% ROIC(%) 31.9% 11.2% 6.1% 15.8% 16.4% EV/EBITDA 57.3-124.6 23.0 8.5 6.7 0.7% 3.5% 0.7% 2.0% 2.6% T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 2009-11-17 PVC 2009-07-30 2008 2009-02-16 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 3,874.3 5,084.2 3,965.7 9,450.9 11,813.6 3,468.3 4,815.7 3,392.7 7,630.8 9,538.5 47.5% 31.2% -22.0% 138.3% 25.0% 30.3 33.6 58.3 138.9 173.6 102.7% -38.9% -40.9% 430.5% 31.2% 194.6 224.6 138.7 330.5 408.5 110.1% -36.3% -36.6% 366.0% 28.8% 222.4 271.7 136.6 325.5 406.9 EBITDA -172.5% -173.1% -705.5% 180.6% 24.0% 61.8 69.4 69.0 106.8 105.5 EBIT -84.0% 932.3% -196.7% 321.5% 27.7% 44.1 1.5 1.5 22.5 5.4 NOPLAT 96.9% -32.0% -29.4% 298.3% 19.8% - - - - - 93.8% 29.7% 53.9% 14.9% 5.0% 61.6 17.0 - - - 19.8% 48.1% 24.5% 14.5% 15.4% 467.6 285.5 168.8 895.8 1,175.2-7.0 17.1 17.1 - - 10.5% 5.3% 14.4% 19.3% 19.3% 460.6 302.6 185.9 895.8 1,175.2 12.1% 5.6% 4.3% 9.5% 9.9% 90.6 70.4 39.0 179.2 293.8 8.4% 4.1% 3.3% 6.4% 6.6% 370.0 232.2 146.9 716.6 881.4 EBITDA/ 2.8% -1.5% 12.0% 14.2% 14.0% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ -0.6% -4.8% 6.0% 10.6% 10.8% 585.6 1,055.1 991.4 756.1 945.1 - - - - - 205 190 242 122 120 217.5 156.0 314.8 776.0 679.0-56 -31-2 34 39 182.6 244.7 217.3 388.4 485.5 140 118 186 94 89 175.1 318.7 322.1 329.7 339.3 20 12 17 14 15 229.8 155.6 325.3 522.7 653.3 20 14 22 16 18 0.0 0.0-3.5-3.5-3.5 385 359 571 269 234 28.3 - - - - 179 207 381 208 183 - - - - - 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 ROE 20.3% 8.6% 4.4% 18.6% 19.8% - - - - - ROA 8.6% 4.0% 2.2% 9.7% 11.0% 2,647.7 2,728.3 2,606.3 3,781.0 4,071.5 ROIC 31.9% 11.2% 6.1% 15.8% 16.4% 140.7 1,025.5 1,686.8 614.7 611.8 22.2 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.6 5.0% 4.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 65.0 80.2 241.1 142.4 148.0 5.7% 5.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4,314.6 5,818.0 6,755.9 7,362.0 7,984.5 1.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 461.2 397.6 586.2 1,026.9 1,047.1 / 12.4% 11.1% 8.7% 8.1% 7.8% 996.1 1,093.8 808.7 836.3 966.9 211.8 650.8 836.6 627.2 784.0 57.7% 53.5% 50.2% 47.6% 44.3% 350.8 309.0 145.6 185.4 178.0 136.3% 115.1% 100.6% 91.0% 79.6% 444.0 642.8 992.8 812.8 542.8 0.69 0.79 0.91 1.03 1.04 24.7 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 0.57 0.72 0.77 0.84 0.82 2,488.6 3,113.0 3,388.8 3,507.5 3,537.7-0.39-3.54 3.45 9.38 12.13 218.0 221.7 235.5 326.8 409.2 546.0 939.1 939.1 939.1 939.1 DPS() 0.06 0.34 0.07 0.19 0.25 1,062.0 1,533.8 2,192.6 2,588.5 3,098.4 18.6% 153.8% 50.0% 30.0% 30.0% 1,826.0 2,705.0 3,367.2 3,854.5 4,446.8 0.7% 3.5% 0.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 370.0 232.2 146.9 716.6 881.4 EPS() 0.34 0.22 0.14 0.65 0.84 132.5 171.6 239.2 336.2 378.8 BVPS() 1.94 2.88 3.59 4.10 4.73 44.1 1.5 1.5 22.5 5.4 PE(X) 27.8 43.7 68.8 14.8 11.5 - - - - - PB(X) 4.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.0-64.7 77.7 69.0 106.8 P/FCF - -27.2-7.6 73.9 46.8-61.6-17.0 - - - P/S 2.3 1.8 2.3 1.0 0.8 46.4 26.2 16.2 107.5 97.0 EV/EBITDA 57.3-124.6 23.0 8.5 6.7-718.1-396.1-513.5-989.7 189.8 CAGR(%) 24.7% 56.0% 69.6% -100.0% -100.0% 281.9 156.5-40.7 300.0 1,657.8 PEG 1.1 0.8 1.0-0.1-0.1-313.0-539.4-920.1-360.1-675.1 ROIC/WACC 3.5 1.2 0.7 1.7 1.8-354.4 852.4 936.8-18.9-640.7 REP 0.7 2.4 3.2 1.1 1.0 Wind.NET 2
T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract PVC 80% PVC2009 PVC2009 PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC5000/ 4000/ 80%98%2009 53000/2000/ 2010 2600/ 46 PVC35 20 PVC20102011 402010201130 2010201120 147 3000 / PVC -A2010PVC7300/ 2550/PVC64412010EPS 0.8925622.25-A T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2,408.6 3,432.1 3,356.3 4,875.1 6,911.6 Growth(%) 45.2% 42.5% -2.2% 45.3% 41.8% 218.4 122.0 49.5 479.6 863.2 Growth(%) 71.0% -44.1% -59.4% 869.1% 80.0% (%) 25.5% 17.7% 14.1% 25.9% 28.2% (%) 9.1% 3.6% 1.5% 9.8% 12.5% () 0.41 0.23 0.09 0.89 1.61 () 4.44 4.65 4.74 5.65 7.07 49.5 88.6 218.5 22.5 12.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.6 2.8 (%) 9.3% 4.8% 2.0% 16.6% 23.9% ROIC(%) 16.2% 6.6% 3.6% 11.9% 17.5% EV/EBITDA 12.7 30.0 25.9 11.0 7.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 2.4% T_RankInfo -A 22.25 6 19.59 2009-12-06 T_MarketInfo () 10,517.09 () 8,380.04 () 536.86 () 427.77 12 / 5.78/21.60 (%) 37.93% 50,786 12 % 16.83 6.67 102.03 21.44 25.08 183.01 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2,408.6 3,432.1 3,356.3 4,875.1 6,911.6 1,794.5 2,824.0 2,882.1 3,614.2 4,960.8 45.2% 42.5% -2.2% 45.3% 41.8% 16.5 18.5 8.4 12.1 17.2 101.2% -54.8% -58.3% 1184.7% 80.0% 136.1 225.8 201.4 292.5 414.7 71.0% -44.1% -59.4% 869.1% 80.0% 170.3 188.9 100.7 146.3 207.3 EBITDA 166.8% -5.8% 27.5% 136.9% 47.2% 28.1 46.4 120.5 170.1 165.0 EBIT 75.0% -43.1% 3.4% 372.2% 62.4% 3.1 10.7-5.9 8.8 10.8 NOPLAT 52.1% -32.7% -11.2% 331.5% 62.4% - - - - - 64.2% 61.5% 31.9% 10.8% 6.3% 0.4 - - - - 91.7% 4.8% 2.1% 19.1% 25.1% 260.5 117.7 49.1 631.1 1,135.8-9.9 15.0 16.0 - - 25.5% 17.7% 14.1% 25.9% 28.2% 250.6 132.7 65.1 631.1 1,135.8 10.8% 3.4% 1.5% 12.9% 16.4% 30.1 11.8 13.0 126.2 227.2 9.1% 3.6% 1.5% 9.8% 12.5% 218.4 122.0 49.5 479.6 863.2 EBITDA/ 18.3% 12.1% 15.7% 25.7% 26.6% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 12.0% 4.8% 5.1% 16.4% 18.8% 1,055.7 174.2 635.6 787.5 991.2 - - - - - 271 235 278 237 194 58.1 43.6 60.6 88.1 124.9-20 6 14 0 1 42.5 36.6 27.6 40.1 56.8 142 123 139 143 135 151.0 537.1 785.6 1,097.2 1,524.9 6 4 5 4 4 130.0 125.6 156.8 196.6 269.9 15 14 16 13 12-0.0-0.0 0.0-0.0 468 468 641 575 470 - - - - - 303 346 506 418 320 - - - - - 22.0 22.6 38.9 38.9 38.9 ROE 9.3% 4.8% 2.0% 16.6% 23.9% - - 9.6 9.6 9.6 ROA 5.3% 2.5% 0.7% 6.0% 9.4% 2,231.5 2,254.6 2,921.4 3,489.2 3,961.2 ROIC 16.2% 6.6% 3.6% 11.9% 17.5% 300.3 1,295.9 2,307.1 2,315.0 2,320.5 82.3 83.6 80.8 78.1 75.5 5.7% 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 101.3 172.0 184.5 228.3 304.9 7.1% 5.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4,174.7 4,745.9 7,208.6 8,368.6 9,678.3 1.2% 1.4% 3.6% 3.5% 2.4% 320.0 1,162.0 1,186.1 1,347.3 1,053.3 / 13.9% 13.4% 12.6% 12.5% 11.4% 572.1 619.1 1,026.5 1,287.2 1,766.9 10.0-79.0 99.0 135.9 42.9% 47.4% 64.7% 63.7% 60.8% 217.1 164.6 122.5 170.6 238.8 75.3% 90.2% 183.0% 175.8% 155.0% 608.0 298.0 1,898.0 1,898.0 1,898.0 1.23 0.47 0.61 0.66 0.77 14.3 6.0 31.0 67.2 118.6 1.12 0.40 0.55 0.60 0.70 1,792.7 2,250.4 4,661.4 5,333.9 5,883.4 10.27 3.54 1.41 4.71 7.88 27.0 27.5 29.8 52.6 93.4 268.4 536.9 536.9 536.9 536.9 DPS() 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.27 0.48 2,086.6 1,931.2 1,980.5 2,445.3 3,164.6 0.6% 0.2% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 2,382.0 2,495.5 2,547.2 3,034.7 3,794.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 2.4% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 220.6 120.9 49.5 479.6 863.2 EPS() 0.41 0.23 0.09 0.89 1.61 151.4 250.3 358.5 449.9 540.9 BVPS() 4.44 4.65 4.74 5.65 7.07 3.1 10.7-5.9 8.8 10.8 PE(X) 49.5 88.6 218.5 22.5 12.5 - - - - - PB(X) 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.6 2.8-27.6 49.1 120.5 170.1 P/FCF -77.3-11.4 20.6 178.6 54.9-0.4 - - - - P/S 4.5 3.2 3.2 2.2 1.6 2.2-1.1 2.6 25.2 45.4 EV/EBITDA 12.7 30.0 25.9 11.0 7.3 35.8-157.4 242.0 45.5 186.7 CAGR(%) 31.8% 95.9% 202.6% -100.0% -100.0% 448.5 311.3 767.2 1,179.3 1,812.0 PEG 1.6 0.9 1.1-0.2-0.1-1,135.1-1,594.5-2,016.3-1,000.0-1,000.0 ROIC/WACC 1.9 0.8 0.4 1.4 2.1 1,531.0 379.2 1,636.8-152.9-717.9 REP 1.1 3.8 5.8 1.6 1.0 Wind.NET 2
T_ReportAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo -A 2009 090910 082508 V 0990% 0915 201060000 /65000/ 09 40D48000/7500/18% 40D 60000/18000/ 35% 08-09 2 4.214% 99% 40D1000/EPS0.06 -A40D 10/4/ 201040D57800/ 3.140D4.240D 40D 75%~80%2010EPS0.925622.5 -A T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,433.5 1,015.7 1,148.5 1,538.1 1,615.0 Growth(%) 87.7% -29.1% 13.1% 33.9% 5.0% 380.5 163.6 116.9 331.3 390.5 Growth(%) 549.4% -57.0% -28.6% 183.5% 17.9% (%) 44.6% 18.1% 16.7% 32.1% 34.5% (%) 26.5% 16.1% 10.2% 21.5% 24.2% () 1.03 0.44 0.32 0.90 1.06 () 3.15 3.54 3.85 4.66 5.44 17.3 40.1 56.2 19.8 16.8 5.7 5.0 4.6 3.8 3.3 (%) 32.7% 12.5% 8.2% 19.3% 19.4% ROIC(%) 39.7% 9.9% 7.5% 20.8% 24.2% EV/EBITDA 5.8 38.6 22.5 11.5 9.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1.8% T_RankInfo -A 22.50 6 19.80 2009-12-05 T_MarketInfo () 7,310.16 () 6,197.23 () 369.20 () 312.99 12 / 5.73/21.10 (%) 74.71% 25,830 12 % 9.27 18.03 141.63 14.44 36.44 222.61 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,433.5 1,015.7 1,148.5 1,538.1 1,615.0 794.6 832.0 956.7 1,044.0 1,057.1 87.7% -29.1% 13.1% 33.9% 5.0% 9.0 6.9 4.1 5.5 5.8 562.0% -87.1% 77.6% 213.1% 17.9% 19.1 20.3 17.2 23.1 24.2 549.4% -57.0% -28.6% 183.5% 17.9% 55.5 77.0 45.9 61.5 64.6 EBITDA 596.2% -71.7% 66.3% 86.4% 11.0% 9.0-4.3 16.0 10.3 2.3 EBIT 500.4% -88.1% 113.5% 184.8% 15.4% 3.5 13.8-16.0 3.9 1.6 NOPLAT 468.7% -59.1% -18.1% 160.7% 15.4% - - - - - 63.8% 8.1% -5.8% -0.9% -8.4% - - - - - 46.0% 12.6% 8.8% 20.8% 16.9% 542.8 70.1 124.5 389.7 459.4 12.0 6.0 13.0 - - 44.6% 18.1% 16.7% 32.1% 34.5% 554.8 76.1 137.5 389.7 459.4 37.9% 6.9% 10.8% 25.3% 28.4% 174.3-87.6 20.6 58.5 68.9 26.5% 16.1% 10.2% 21.5% 24.2% 380.5 163.6 116.9 331.3 390.5 EBITDA/ 44.6% 17.8% 26.2% 36.5% 38.6% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 38.5% 6.5% 12.2% 26.0% 28.6% 78.8 24.8 214.9 464.6 797.1 - - - - - 167 293 319 230 184 144.6 101.0 132.8 177.9 186.8 90 167 157 141 154 112.4 116.0 157.3 210.7 221.2 121 198 194 228 303 21.6 14.4 35.2 57.8 80.8 31 46 39 39 43 293.0 208.5 235.9 257.4 260.7 51 92 72 58 58 - - 0.0-0.0 357 623 568 470 497 - - - - - 325 592 528 381 346 - - - - - - - - - - ROE 32.7% 12.5% 8.2% 19.3% 19.4% - - 9.6 9.6 9.6 ROA 21.3% 9.4% 6.2% 15.6% 16.7% 679.1 973.3 1,059.3 905.9 749.0 ROIC 39.7% 9.9% 7.5% 20.8% 24.2% 428.6 258.1 12.9 6.5 3.2 24.2 28.5 27.0 25.7 24.4 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 3.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.9% 7.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1,785.7 1,731.9 1,892.0 2,123.2 2,339.9 0.6% -0.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 231.1 303.1 323.4 222.5 120.2 / 5.8% 9.2% 6.9% 6.2% 5.6% 164.6 56.4 106.1 115.7 117.2 - - 13.1 14.3 14.5 34.9% 24.5% 24.8% 19.0% 14.1% 76.3 13.6 45.6 70.6 96.9 53.7% 32.4% 33.0% 23.5% 16.4% 150.0 50.0 - - - 1.38 1.24 1.66 2.89 4.69 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.76 0.64 1.15 2.26 3.90 623.9 424.1 469.3 404.3 329.9 61.29-15.24 8.80 39.02 204.36 - - - - - 184.6 369.2 369.2 369.2 369.2 DPS() 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.27 0.32 977.2 938.6 1,053.5 1,349.7 1,640.8 0.5% 1.2% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 1,161.8 1,307.8 1,422.7 1,718.9 2,010.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 380.5 163.6 116.9 331.3 390.5 EPS() 1.03 0.44 0.32 0.90 1.06 88.1 115.3 160.7 161.2 161.5 BVPS() 3.15 3.54 3.85 4.66 5.44 3.5 13.8-16.0 3.9 1.6 PE(X) 17.3 40.1 56.2 19.8 16.8 - - - - - PB(X) 5.7 5.0 4.6 3.8 3.3-4.5 4.6 16.0 10.3 P/FCF 2,177.7 1,121.9 34.9 26.7 15.5 - - - - - P/S 4.6 6.5 5.7 4.3 4.1 - - - - - EV/EBITDA 5.8 38.6 22.5 11.5 9.7-166.1-57.3-10.3-109.7-18.3 CAGR(%) -4.5% 33.6% 50.2% -100.0% -100.0% 310.7 240.8 267.3 397.0 537.4 PEG -3.8 1.2 1.1-0.2-0.2-480.3-243.7 - - - ROIC/WACC 4.3 1.1 0.8 2.2 2.6 224.7-51.0-80.7-210.6-221.7 REP 0.5 3.8 5.1 1.8 1.6 Wind.NET 2
T_ReportAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo TDI 2010EPS1.71-A634 TDI2009 1015% 2010 TDI TDITDI 20071056000/ 200918000/TDI29000 /2010TDI 30000/3TDI17000 5TDI6DNT2000/ TDI5TDI TDI2010TDI 30000/ 58043TDI 6DNT2010TDI1.50 0.1/ EPS0.1EPS0.4 2010EPS1.71-A634 2010TDI30000/580 43TDI6DNT 2010TDI1.50TDI1000/ EPS0.162010 0.2020101.71 -A 34 T_RankInfo -A -A 34 6 33.00 22.59 2009-12-05 T_MarketInfo () 5,858.30 () 5,858.30 () 259.33 () 259.33 12 / 7.80/24.45 (%) 69.29% 20,890 12 % 10.68 (0.40) 62.42 15.85 18.01 143.40 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,502.3 2,021.6 2,402.9 3,863.6 4,315.1 Growth(%) -8.8% 34.6% 18.9% 60.8% 11.7% 78.9 166.1 88.7 444.2 560.1 Growth(%) -25.7% 110.6% -46.6% 400.6% 26.1% (%) 28.3% 26.1% 21.6% 27.9% 29.4% (%) 5.2% 8.2% 3.7% 11.5% 13.0% () 0.30 0.64 0.34 1.71 2.16 () 4.78 5.49 5.67 7.47 9.36 77.9 37.0 69.2 13.8 11.0 5.0 4.3 4.2 3.2 2.5 (%) 5.4% 14.8% 7.5% 25.7% 25.9% ROIC(%) 5.2% 11.9% 7.2% 18.7% 19.0% EV/EBITDA 21.8 17.2 20.6 8.6 7.1 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 2.2% 2.7% T_RelatedReport 5 TDI 2009-09-02 TDI 2009-08-17 TDI 2008-08-08 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,502.3 2,021.6 2,402.9 3,863.6 4,315.1 1,077.2 1,493.4 1,883.3 2,784.3 3,045.3-8.8% 34.6% 18.9% 60.8% 11.7% 3.3 4.6 3.5 5.6 6.3-4.2% 49.5% -47.6% 350.0% 26.1% 11.2 9.4 13.9 19.3 21.6-25.7% 110.6% -46.6% 400.6% 26.1% 183.9 176.0 235.1 270.5 302.1 EBITDA -4.2% 28.6% -8.3% 146.6% 20.4% 25.7 30.1 68.4 88.9 91.8 EBIT -6.1% 45.6% -30.8% 248.8% 23.4% 12.1 25.7 50.9 29.6 9.0 NOPLAT -54.0% 161.0% -32.6% 248.8% 23.4% - - - - - 13.1% 11.6% 33.8% 21.4% 10.3% - - - - - 3.2% 14.9% 3.3% 31.7% 25.2% 188.9 282.5 147.9 665.4 839.1-74.9-1.7 - - - 28.3% 26.1% 21.6% 27.9% 29.4% 114.0 280.8 147.9 665.4 839.1 12.6% 14.0% 6.2% 17.2% 19.4% 47.6 70.4 37.0 166.4 209.8 5.2% 8.2% 3.7% 11.5% 13.0% 78.9 166.1 88.7 444.2 560.1 EBITDA/ 22.0% 21.0% 16.2% 24.9% 26.8% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 14.3% 15.5% 9.0% 19.5% 21.6% 259.2 459.1 374.5 539.7 595.0 - - - - - 234 154 194 179 176 36.3 7.0 13.3 21.4 23.9 55 12-11 8 31 31.3 1.1 4.9 7.8 8.7 129 116 130 131 169 94.8 22.0 311.7 739.9 1,208.3 7 5 2 2 2 185.5 180.5 354.8 524.5 573.7 44 33 40 41 46 2.3 18.1-17.7-70.7-128.6 532 485 536 434 460 - - - - - 457 381 395 312 322 - - - - - - - - - - ROE 5.4% 14.8% 7.5% 25.7% 25.9% - - - - - ROA 2.8% 6.9% 2.7% 9.6% 10.8% 902.9 827.7 1,761.2 2,070.6 2,151.2 ROIC 5.2% 11.9% 7.2% 18.7% 19.0% 274.3 951.8 925.9 1,068.1 1,094.5 32.3 85.9 131.3 128.9 126.5 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 584.0 488.0 252.2 182.7 150.5 12.2% 8.7% 9.8% 7.0% 7.0% 2,403.0 3,041.2 4,112.0 5,212.9 5,803.8 1.7% 1.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.1% 399.5 383.5 600.0 499.8 399.6 / 14.7% 10.7% 13.2% 9.8% 9.6% 187.7 273.2 632.4 935.0 1,022.7-34.3 82.3 121.7 133.1 48.4% 53.2% 64.2% 62.8% 58.2% 80.5 217.1 238.2 330.4 433.3 93.8% 113.5% 179.4% 168.9% 139.1% 470.2 649.6 949.6 1,249.6 1,249.6 0.88 0.71 0.62 0.87 1.07 1.8 - - - - 0.61 0.52 0.41 0.61 0.80 1,163.0 1,616.7 2,640.5 3,274.4 3,376.2 8.34 10.38 3.16 8.49 10.14 288.7 333.0 325.0 374.4 436.7 259.3 259.3 259.3 259.3 259.3 DPS() 0.10 0.13 0.10 0.51 0.65 692.0 832.1 887.2 1,304.7 1,731.6 32.9% 20.3% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 1,240.1 1,424.5 1,471.5 1,938.5 2,427.6 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 66.4 210.4 88.7 444.2 560.1 EPS() 0.30 0.64 0.34 1.71 2.16 116.1 112.6 173.5 206.9 226.2 BVPS() 4.78 5.49 5.67 7.47 9.36 12.1 25.7 50.9 29.6 9.0 PE(X) 77.9 37.0 69.2 13.8 11.0 - - - - - PB(X) 5.0 4.3 4.2 3.2 2.5 34.1 27.1 32.2 68.4 88.9 P/FCF 63.3 46.9-75.2-1,673.0 75.7 - - - - - P/S 4.1 3.0 2.6 1.6 1.4-12.5 44.3 22.2 54.9 69.2 EV/EBITDA 21.8 17.2 20.6 8.6 7.1-77.2 239.6-1.7-134.1-264.8 CAGR(%) 95.9% 44.1% 86.7% -100.0% -100.0% 195.8 637.0 402.1 690.4 691.6 PEG 0.8 0.8 0.8-0.1-0.1-340.2-525.5-951.0-603.0-303.0 ROIC/WACC 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.9 1.9 186.7 88.4 498.2-22.4-360.1 REP 6.8 2.7 3.6 1.2 1.0 Wind.NET 2
T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract 11 1271218 11252020 200540 45 13.153.63,36% 863 3 8000 1030 20012002 200031 4000/ -A -A 617.6 T_RankInfo -A -A 17.60 6 17.60 11.17 2009-12-04 T_MarketInfo () 8,089.49 () 8,089.49 () 724.22 () 724.22 12 / 3.11/13.40 (%) 21.72% 120,609 12 % (13.02) 4.21 131.76 (7.53) 22.62 215.50 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,047.5 966.5 1,546.6 2,580.6 3,869.2 Growth(%) 21.2% -7.7% 60.0% 66.9% 49.9% 74.0 79.7 149.2 298.7 628.8 Growth(%) 133.3% 7.8% 87.0% 100.2% 110.5% (%) 27.6% 23.0% 30.3% 35.9% 41.8% (%) 7.1% 8.3% 9.6% 11.6% 16.3% () 0.10 0.11 0.21 0.41 0.87 () 2.15 2.56 2.72 3.08 3.85 109.2 101.3 54.2 27.1 12.9 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.6 2.9 (%) 5.5% 4.6% 7.9% 13.9% 23.4% ROIC(%) 19.0% 11.8% 13.9% 16.8% 23.7% EV/EBITDA 48.9 55.8 37.8 19.5 10.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 2.3% T_RelatedReport 2009-05-13 2009-04-29 2009-02-20 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,047.5 966.5 1,546.6 2,580.6 3,869.2 758.3 744.2 1,078.2 1,654.3 2,253.4 21.2% -7.7% 60.0% 66.9% 49.9% 19.5 13.5 18.0 30.1 45.1 73.7% -29.6% 110.6% 132.1% 110.5% 74.3 77.8 124.1 207.1 310.6 133.3% 7.8% 87.0% 100.2% 110.5% 78.7 80.0 148.0 247.0 370.3 EBITDA 29.0% -8.4% 60.5% 109.4% 95.2% 18.9 28.0 37.4 74.5 117.4 EBIT 39.3% -17.8% 89.6% 125.8% 101.5% -6.5-1.3-4.2 3.1 5.1 NOPLAT 43.4% 10.7% 68.3% 100.1% 101.5% 0.2-0.7 1.3 - - 78.8% 42.1% 66.0% 43.0% 41.6% 1.4 50.8 10.7 - - 3.4% 19.1% 6.0% 13.4% 25.1% 105.8 74.6 157.0 364.5 767.4 0.1 29.9 25.0 - - 27.6% 23.0% 30.3% 35.9% 41.8% 106.0 104.5 182.0 364.5 767.4 10.1% 7.7% 10.2% 14.1% 19.8% 20.2 18.6 27.3 54.7 115.1 7.1% 8.3% 9.6% 11.6% 16.3% 74.0 79.7 149.2 298.7 628.8 EBITDA/ 14.8% 14.7% 14.7% 18.5% 24.0% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 11.9% 10.6% 12.6% 17.0% 22.9% 380.0 289.4 254.7 431.8 600.3 1.3 0.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 70 90 58 37 30 124.6 75.7 93.3 155.8 233.5 127 278 278 252 235 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 359 538 385 318 293 89.0 162.6 210.8 284.8 385.6 37 29 15 13 14 817.1 852.6 1,337.2 2,051.6 2,794.5 165 311 255 236 225 8.1 85.3-54.2-214.1-431.9 845 968 700 549 485-27.6 75.3 75.3 75.3 253 425 414 377 357 31.7 62.5 - - - 23.5 22.8 62.4 62.4 62.4 ROE 5.5% 4.6% 7.9% 13.9% 23.4% 706.5 678.6 673.9 673.9 673.9 ROA 3.4% 3.2% 4.6% 6.9% 11.0% 239.9 243.8 252.1 284.5 361.7 ROIC 19.0% 11.8% 13.9% 16.8% 23.7% 26.1 32.2 388.9 619.2 1,111.3 67.8 65.7 57.3 53.6 50.3 7.1% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 35.2 47.0 15.6 16.4 17.1 7.5% 8.3% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 2,552.8 2,647.2 3,369.4 4,497.4 5,936.6 1.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.9% 3.0% 294.7 327.1 735.3 1,000.0 1,200.0 / 16.4% 19.2% 20.0% 20.5% 20.6% 259.8 199.9 272.9 418.8 570.4 4.8 17.3 13.1 20.1 27.4 39.0% 29.9% 41.6% 50.4% 53.0% 307.0 94.3 33.7-19.7-99.8 63.9% 42.7% 71.3% 101.6% 112.7% 111.6 126.6 326.6 826.6 1,426.6 1.62 2.23 1.73 1.90 2.10 5.4 7.3 11.9 11.9 11.9 0.69 0.93 0.48 0.46 0.46 995.4 791.7 1,403.0 2,267.0 3,145.9 6.61 3.66 5.19 5.89 7.53 99.0 335.1 252.3 262.4 283.5 724.2 724.2 724.2 724.2 724.2 DPS() - - 0.06 0.12 0.26 735.5 798.1 989.9 1,243.8 1,783.0 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 1,557.4 1,855.5 1,966.4 2,230.4 2,790.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 2.3% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 85.7 85.9 149.2 298.7 628.8 EPS() 0.10 0.11 0.21 0.41 0.87 29.9 39.1 32.9 37.1 44.9 BVPS() 2.15 2.56 2.72 3.08 3.85-6.5-1.3-4.2 3.1 5.1 PE(X) 109.2 101.3 54.2 27.1 12.9 0.2 0.7 1.3 - - PB(X) 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.6 2.9 31.9 21.7 33.0 37.4 74.5 P/FCF -18.8-32.1-82.5 74.6 74.7-1.4-50.8-10.7 - - P/S 7.7 8.4 5.2 3.1 2.1 7.3 3.1 5.6 11.2 23.5 EV/EBITDA 48.9 55.8 37.8 19.5 10.8-15.7-35.7-413.9-591.6-625.0 CAGR(%) 53.4% 96.6% 77.9% -100.0% -100.0% 106.9 107.0-202.4-167.1 194.6 PEG 2.0 1.0 0.7-0.3-0.1 173.5-218.7-383.1-303.0-620.0 ROIC/WACC 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.2-119.4 21.8 596.5 600.5 493.9 REP 4.5 5.3 2.9 1.8 1.0 Wind.NET 2
T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract 11 1271218 11252020 200540 45 2009 10 16 51% -A623 T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 881.3 1,701.3 1,786.4 2,322.3 3,483.4 Growth(%) 36.1% 93.0% 5.0% 30.0% 50.0% 25.6 35.8 34.7 113.6 196.0 Growth(%) 254.4% 39.8% -3.1% 227.0% 72.6% (%) 1.7% 1.3% 6.0% 10.0% 11.0% (%) 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% 4.9% 5.6% () 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.40 0.68 () 1.16 2.17 2.28 2.54 2.99 207.2 148.3 153.0 46.8 27.1 16.0 8.6 8.1 7.3 6.2 (%) 7.7% 5.8% 5.3% 15.6% 22.9% ROIC(%) 8.3% 8.4% 5.7% 11.5% 17.1% EV/EBITDA 128.2-181.9 111.3 36.3 22.6 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% T_RankInfo -A -A 23.00 6 23.00 18.47 2009-12-05 T_MarketInfo () 5,287.60 () 3,668.52 () 286.28 () 198.62 12 / 7.88/21.50 (%) 16.65% 38,043 12 % (5.38) 3.77 16.60 (0.21) 22.18 97.58 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport 2009-10-11 2009-06-19 2008-11-13 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 881.3 1,701.3 1,786.4 2,322.3 3,483.4 866.1 1,678.9 1,679.2 2,090.1 3,100.3 36.1% 93.0% 5.0% 30.0% 50.0% 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.8 240.8% -21.4% -91.3% 5174.7% 97.5% 9.9 23.3 24.5 31.8 47.7 254.4% 39.8% -3.1% 227.0% 72.6% 19.1 49.4 51.8 67.3 101.0 EBITDA 4395.2% -254.0% -271.4% 207.8% 63.6% 15.1 18.2 18.7 28.3 31.7 EBIT -83.0% 1519.6% -132.4% 509.7% 78.2% 0.4 10.4 6.1 4.0 8.7 NOPLAT 106.2% 23.9% 0.8% 172.8% 62.3% 0.9-1.1 2.1-2.1-22.5% 50.0% 34.5% 8.6% 18.3% 10.9-0.1-5.0 - - 6.8% 86.8% 5.3% 11.3% 17.5% 27.0 21.2 1.8 96.8 191.2-0.4 25.5 40.0 40.0 45.0 1.7% 1.3% 6.0% 10.0% 11.0% 26.5 46.7 41.8 136.8 236.2 3.1% 1.2% 0.1% 4.2% 5.5% 0.9 10.8 7.1 23.3 40.2 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% 4.9% 5.6% 25.6 35.8 34.7 113.6 196.0 EBITDA/ 2.3% -1.8% 2.9% 7.0% 7.6% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ -0.4% -3.7% 1.1% 5.4% 6.4% 65.0 168.8 119.3 151.1 214.2 1.6-2.1 - - 116 70 80 66 48 108.9 270.3 255.7 332.4 498.7 91 76 113 112 88 13.2 13.5 29.4 38.2 57.3 133 119 166 147 127 67.4 229.7 231.4 233.5 236.6 42 36 49 44 41 80.8 106.9 230.0 286.3 424.7 32 21 35 40 37-0.0 0.0-7.4-7.4-7.4 262 200 264 229 186 - - - - - 220 157 210 193 146 - - - - - 20.8 4.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 ROE 7.7% 5.8% 5.3% 15.6% 22.9% - - - - - ROA 4.0% 2.9% 2.5% 7.2% 9.7% 274.3 390.4 406.7 447.4 489.8 ROIC 8.3% 8.4% 5.7% 11.5% 17.1% 2.8 20.3 40.2 26.1 39.6 11.6 35.9 36.0 36.1 36.2 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7 4.7 11.0 11.0 15.4 2.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 648.0 1,244.6 1,374.5 1,574.7 2,025.0 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 255.7 299.8 452.2 434.2 479.6 / 5.0% 5.3% 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% 35.0 124.0 115.0 143.2 212.3 5.0 195.9 13.8 17.2 25.5 48.7% 50.1% 52.5% 53.8% 57.8% 19.9 0.3 16.0 78.8 208.9 95.0% 100.6% 110.3% 116.5% 136.9% - - 120.0 170.0 240.0 1.07 1.27 1.44 1.54 1.54 0.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.81 1.09 1.06 1.11 1.08 315.8 624.1 721.0 847.4 1,170.3-0.26-3.47 1.10 4.43 7.03-2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 123.7 286.3 286.3 286.3 286.3 DPS() 0.01 0.07-0.12 0.21 208.6 331.7 364.7 438.5 566.0 9.6% 55.5% 0.0% 30.0% 30.0% 332.3 620.5 653.5 727.3 854.7 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 25.6 35.8 34.7 113.6 196.0 EPS() 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.40 0.68 25.6 34.2 32.1 36.9 42.1 BVPS() 1.16 2.17 2.28 2.54 2.99 0.4 10.4 6.1 4.0 8.7 PE(X) 207.2 148.3 153.0 46.8 27.1-0.9 1.1 2.1-2.1 - PB(X) 16.0 8.6 8.1 7.3 6.2 13.4 17.1 18.2 18.7 28.3 P/FCF - -24.6 4,701.8 124.6 72.2-10.9 0.1 5.0 - - P/S 6.0 3.1 3.0 2.3 1.5 - - - - - EV/EBITDA 128.2-181.9 111.3 36.3 22.6-122.3-157.6-304.9-53.5-128.0 CAGR(%) 64.2% 76.2% 111.2% -100.0% -100.0% -65.3-47.3-206.3 127.1 150.6 PEG 3.2 1.9 1.4-0.5-0.3-11.0-112.5-98.0-59.0-100.1 ROIC/WACC 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.8 47.5 216.5 253.7-30.3 24.8 REP 4.8 6.9 8.1 3.7 2.1 Wind.NET 2
T_Graph T_ YieldInfo T_ReportAbstract -A 1125 2020GDP2005 40%~45%2020 200517% EPS 10 -A EPS 20092010EPS0.631.05 626.25-A T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2,985.4 3,914.7 4,158.8 5,810.2 7,040.2 Growth(%) 97.5% 31.1% 6.2% 39.7% 21.2% 127.1 105.3 425.9 709.8 928.3 Growth(%) 34.3% -17.1% 304.4% 66.7% 30.8% (%) 14.0% 11.1% 19.0% 21.8% 22.8% (%) 4.3% 2.7% 10.2% 12.2% 13.2% () 0.19 0.16 0.63 1.05 1.38 () 1.70 2.96 3.37 4.09 4.88 104.8 126.5 31.3 18.8 14.3 11.6 6.7 5.8 4.8 4.0 (%) 15.4% 4.7% 19.5% 26.8% 29.3% ROIC(%) 14.0% 6.5% 19.5% 28.2% 29.7% EV/EBITDA 42.0 51.9 21.7 14.2 11.1 0.2% 1.1% 1.9% 3.2% 4.2% T_RankInfo -A -A 26.25 6 26.25 19.71 2009-12-03 T_MarketInfo () 13,305.62 () 13,247.97 () 675.07 () 672.14 12 / 3.87/22.73 (%) 63.82% 50,828 12 % (5.78) 33.27 286.00 (1.26) 50.93 369.90 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_RelatedReport EPS 2009-11-27 2009-10-27 2009-09-24 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2,985.4 3,914.7 4,158.8 5,810.2 7,040.2 2,567.1 3,481.5 3,368.4 4,545.9 5,435.4 97.5% 31.1% 6.2% 39.7% 21.2% 1.9 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.7 31.8% -35.8% 313.2% 67.7% 31.5% 128.7 150.3 145.6 209.2 260.5 34.3% -17.1% 304.4% 66.7% 30.8% 60.5 86.8 87.3 122.0 147.8 EBITDA 90.0% -14.3% 139.5% 54.8% 28.4% 37.4 32.8 25.3 23.0 26.2 EBIT 41.2% -32.0% 242.9% 64.0% 31.1% 4.0 35.0 17.2 47.3 35.6 NOPLAT 64.1% -40.4% 265.3% 63.1% 30.3% - - - - - 28.4% 22.0% 12.8% 23.6% 15.2% 7.5-2.1 - - - 7.5% 74.0% 14.1% 21.1% 19.5% 193.3 124.1 512.8 859.8 1,131.0-4.7-5.5 - - - 14.0% 11.1% 19.0% 21.8% 22.8% 188.7 118.6 512.8 859.8 1,131.0 6.5% 3.2% 12.3% 14.8% 16.1% 12.3 24.0 69.2 120.4 164.0 4.3% 2.7% 10.2% 12.2% 13.2% 127.1 105.3 425.9 709.8 928.3 EBITDA/ 10.4% 6.8% 15.3% 17.0% 18.0% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 7.7% 4.0% 12.9% 15.2% 16.4% 388.1 847.6 630.3 681.0 804.0 - - - - - 116 112 121 84 68 207.1 296.7 364.3 508.9 616.6 34 46 62 61 70 98.4 237.5 273.9 382.6 463.6 134 146 161 129 133 71.8 79.7 113.4 158.8 213.2 23 23 28 25 27 521.6 437.7 435.6 587.9 702.9 48 45 40 34 35 - -0.0 11.4 26.7 45.0 316 306 324 257 247 - - - - - 210 200 220 186 183 - - - - - 119.0 119.1 119.1 119.1 119.1 ROE 15.4% 4.7% 19.5% 26.8% 29.3% - - - - - ROA 5.9% 2.6% 11.7% 16.4% 18.7% 999.0 1,428.3 1,370.3 1,334.6 1,317.0 ROIC 14.0% 6.5% 19.5% 28.2% 29.7% 432.9 78.6 340.7 576.7 789.0 77.2 75.4 74.8 74.3 73.7 4.3% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 64.9 80.3 73.5 49.9 21.4 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2,980.0 3,680.9 3,807.3 4,500.5 5,165.6 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 376.5 580.7 480.2 700.1 640.9 / 7.6% 6.9% 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% 321.2 285.6 323.0 435.9 521.2 31.0 - - - - 61.5% 45.8% 40.2% 38.7% 36.2% 320.5 493.5 569.5 685.7 826.5 159.8% 84.4% 67.2% 63.2% 56.7% 673.2 204.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.11 1.28 1.20 1.35 1.52 - - - - - 0.66 0.97 0.89 0.99 1.12 1,832.8 1,684.7 1,529.9 1,742.1 1,870.0 6.17 4.78 21.27 38.37 44.24 149.0 92.4 88.6 115.2 150.0 612.0 675.1 675.1 675.1 675.1 DPS() 0.05 0.21 0.38 0.63 0.83 386.2 1,228.7 1,513.8 1,968.1 2,470.6 24.1% 133.7% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 1,147.2 1,996.2 2,277.5 2,758.4 3,295.7 0.2% 1.1% 1.9% 3.2% 4.2% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 176.4 94.6 425.9 709.8 928.3 EPS() 0.19 0.16 0.63 1.05 1.38 79.6 109.0 98.5 102.6 108.1 BVPS() 1.70 2.96 3.37 4.09 4.88 4.0 35.0 17.2 47.3 35.6 PE(X) 104.8 126.5 31.3 18.8 14.3 - - - - - PB(X) 11.6 6.7 5.8 4.8 4.0-31.2 36.6 25.3 23.0 P/FCF 105.9-23.7-165.2 147.9 36.8-7.5 2.1 - - - P/S 4.5 3.4 3.2 2.3 1.9 49.3-10.7 17.7 29.6 38.7 EV/EBITDA 42.0 51.9 21.7 14.2 11.1-473.0-363.0-66.3-291.5-194.8 CAGR(%) 61.2% 117.0% 40.0% -100.0% -100.0% -210.3-65.4 518.4 620.8 942.1 PEG 1.7 1.1 0.8-0.2-0.1-101.2-105.2-303.0-303.0-303.0 ROIC/WACC 1.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 2.4 336.2 563.9-482.7-433.5-642.4 REP 5.8 10.9 3.2 1.8 1.5 Wind.NET 2
T_ReportAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo MDI MDI MDI 10065% 6 MDI 20082009 200910 7% MDI MDI 2009 4030MDI2010 MDI801124 20MDI60 120MDI 30TDI 201175201055 1232.72010 MDI3319000/MDI22 21000/2010EPS1.0930 1232.7-A T_RankInfo -A -A 32.70 6 25.00 24.50 2009-12-03 T_MarketInfo () 40,751.69 () 40,751.69 () 1,663.33 () 1,663.33 12 / 9.70/25.30 (%) 60.75% 65,904 12 % 9.22 38.59 36.54 13.74 56.25 120.44 T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essence.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@essence.com.cn T_FSAndVSAbstract () 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 7,803.6 7,704.4 7,073.0 10,438.5 15,777.8 Growth(%) 57.8% -1.3% -8.2% 47.6% 51.1% 1,481.3 1,509.7 1,268.9 1,806.7 2,782.0 Growth(%) 71.6% 1.9% -16.0% 42.4% 54.0% (%) 40.4% 31.3% 32.8% 35.9% 39.1% (%) 19.0% 19.6% 17.9% 17.3% 17.6% () 0.89 0.91 0.76 1.09 1.67 () 2.67 3.28 3.66 4.69 6.30 26.2 25.7 30.6 21.5 14.0 8.8 7.1 6.4 5.0 3.7 (%) 38.2% 32.3% 24.5% 27.2% 31.2% ROIC(%) 39.3% 28.6% 20.9% 23.1% 25.2% EV/EBITDA 15.6 21.3 22.7 14.3 9.2 1.2% 2.1% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% T_RelatedReport 2009-11-30 2009-09-29 2009-03-05 1
T_FSAndVS 2009-11-30 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 7,803.6 7,704.4 7,073.0 10,438.5 15,777.8 4,651.7 5,294.2 4,753.5 6,694.6 9,611.1 57.8% -1.3% -8.2% 47.6% 51.1% 66.7 48.6 39.0 57.6 87.0 82.3% -30.0% -14.0% 75.5% 74.5% 223.5 207.1 191.0 281.8 426.0 71.6% 1.9% -16.0% 42.4% 54.0% 571.2 454.2 509.3 626.3 946.7 EBITDA 75.2% -25.9% -1.8% 66.8% 61.7% 53.7 50.8 141.7 256.7 310.5 EBIT 84.9% -29.4% -8.2% 76.0% 69.5% 19.9 0.3 16.3 25.3 40.1 NOPLAT 80.9% 3.3% -11.0% 45.3% 49.6% -4.4-0.8 - - - 42.1% 21.8% 31.6% 36.7% 28.5% 148.3 4.9 - - - 53.0% 22.8% 11.7% 28.1% 34.3% 2,360.8 1,653.3 1,422.2 2,496.3 4,356.4 121.4 372.4 331.0 - - 40.4% 31.3% 32.8% 35.9% 39.1% 2,482.2 2,025.7 1,753.2 2,496.3 4,356.4 30.3% 21.5% 20.1% 23.9% 27.6% 785.4 267.6 263.0 374.4 1,089.1 19.0% 19.6% 17.9% 17.3% 17.6% 1,481.3 1,509.7 1,268.9 1,806.7 2,782.0 EBITDA/ 33.9% 25.5% 27.2% 30.8% 32.9% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E EBIT/ 30.9% 22.1% 22.1% 26.4% 29.6% 1,370.1 1,271.6 2,133.4 2,187.7 3,255.6 59.3 - - - - 145 150 193 167 128 366.5 308.3 484.0 714.4 1,079.7 96 159 198 185 197 1,072.1 946.2 734.8 1,084.5 1,639.2 135 184 244 226 212 543.3 703.1 1,397.2 2,374.7 3,778.1 16 16 20 21 21 650.9 600.4 704.5 992.1 1,424.4 26 29 33 29 28-5.0 305.0 5.0 5.0 296 361 501 456 377 - - - - - 249 328 454 414 362 - - - - - 34.7 185.3 190.9 190.9 190.9 ROE 38.2% 32.3% 24.5% 27.2% 31.2% - - - - - ROA 22.3% 22.4% 12.6% 14.6% 17.7% 3,168.3 3,270.8 4,312.5 5,358.2 5,863.2 ROIC 39.3% 28.6% 20.9% 23.1% 25.2% 138.0 376.5 1,388.3 1,494.1 1,022.1 130.8 143.8 139.0 134.4 129.9 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 60.4 51.5 50.3 45.5 43.0 7.3% 5.9% 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 7,594.4 7,862.7 11,840.0 14,581.5 18,431.1 0.7% 0.7% 2.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1,108.3 839.1 4,400.0 5,500.6 6,778.6 / 10.9% 9.2% 11.9% 11.2% 10.7% 286.2 201.9 290.7 409.4 587.8 43.0 7.7 85.3 120.2 172.6 41.6% 30.7% 48.6% 46.5% 43.2% 571.6 138.5 287.4 461.3 724.2 71.1% 44.3% 94.6% 87.1% 76.0% 299.5 412.5 512.5 512.5 512.5 1.59 1.93 1.10 1.18 1.50 303.8 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.1 1.34 1.63 0.97 1.02 1.31 3,155.9 2,413.3 5,755.7 6,787.6 7,960.4 44.95 33.52 11.04 10.73 15.03 514.5 632.0 831.2 1,114.8 1,551.5 1,663.3 1,663.3 1,663.3 1,663.3 1,663.3 DPS() 0.29 0.50 0.23 0.33 0.50 2,260.0 3,152.6 3,589.8 5,015.8 7,255.8 32.1% 55.1% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 4,438.5 5,449.4 6,084.3 7,794.0 10,470.7 1.2% 2.1% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 1,696.9 1,758.1 1,268.9 1,806.7 2,782.0 EPS() 0.89 0.91 0.76 1.09 1.67 234.6 257.6 362.0 458.9 525.0 BVPS() 2.67 3.28 3.66 4.69 6.30 19.9 0.3 16.3 25.3 40.1 PE(X) 26.2 25.7 30.6 21.5 14.0 4.4 0.8 - - - PB(X) 8.8 7.1 6.4 5.0 3.7 42.4 53.8 22.4 141.7 256.7 P/FCF -278.6 61,612.8 17.4-47.3 369.0-148.3-4.9 - - - P/S 5.0 5.0 5.5 3.7 2.5 215.5 248.4 221.3 315.1 485.3 EV/EBITDA 15.6 21.3 22.7 14.3 9.2-202.6-111.2-740.4-1,939.1-2,901.0 CAGR(%) 7.7% 22.9% 37.7% -100.0% -100.0% 1,282.4 2,000.2 1,269.9 923.5 1,241.9 PEG 3.4 1.1 0.8-0.2-0.1-366.8-925.9-2,706.5-1,301.0-551.0 ROIC/WACC 4.2 3.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 232.3-1,164.0 2,876.1 301.9 132.9 REP 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 Wind.NET 2
T_AuthorInfo T_Sales 6 300 10% 6 300-10% 10% 6 300 10% A 300 B 300 021-67865293 zhuxian@essence.com.cn 021-68765237 lingjie@essence.com.cn 021-68766067 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essence.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essence.com.cn 021-68763879 zhangqin@essence.com.cn 010-66581676 zhourong@essence.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essence.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essence.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essence.com.cn 0755-82558087 wangyy3@essence.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essence.com.cn 528 2008 200120 021-68801200 28 100032 010-66578819 4018 35 518026 0755-82825555 13