: 3 (CGE) :,,, CGE,,:,,,,, 2 3 ; 3,,2007 70 %, 20 % :, 30 ;,30,, 30, : 30?? (2008) : 2020 60 %, 9 %, 55, 2006 2 7 %, 45, 9 % 10, 6 %, 41 IEA 2007, 2015 39 41, 2020 39, 43, 52,,,2006 ( ) 43 %,61 % 78 %, 2020,3 ( 3,, :361005, :bqlin @xmu. edu. cn ;billmmu @xmu. edu. cn 88
2008 11 ) 315 4, 2006 GDP 515 %, 30 %, 54 %, 2003 2007,,,,,,,, 20 %, 1978 598, 2217 % ;2006 1736, 2016 %,,,, 70 %, 2006, 6417 %, 23 % ;, 24 %, 817 %,,,,,, (2008) 38183, 2027 40 %,2020 50 % 2020 50, 13,,,,,, :10, 018,, 2002,,2002 194178,2008 7, 700, 180, 100 140, 1000,,2008 : :, 2005 8, 65 79,,,2008 3 6 2007 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2007. http :ΠΠwww. bp. comπstatisticalreview IEA, Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy, May 2004. http :ΠΠwww. iea. orgπtextbaseπpapersπ2004π High - Oil - Prices. pdf 2002,http :ΠΠcctd. com. cnπjspπinfoπview. jsp? name = sjzx - mtjg. htm 89
: 7 1, 19716, 22 1000, 2002 1 19148 Π,2006 7 7814 Π,, 2007 1 1993,,,, :,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(CGE),,, () 1973 1974 1979 1980,,1990 1991, Hamilton (1983) VAR, GNP,1960, : (1) Davis Haltiwanger (2001),, (2) Hamilton (1988),Lee Ni (2002),,,, 21,2008 7 15 90
2008 11 (3) Parks(1978) 1930 1941 1948 1975, () 1986,Hamilton (1983),,GDP,,, Barsky Kilian (2001),,, 1974 1975 Boschen Mills(1995) Bernanke Mihov (1998),1970, 1973,,,,,,1974 1977, 80, 60 70,, Hooker (2002) 1962 2002, 1962 1980,,,, Barrell Ponerantz (2004),, Katayama (2007), ;Blanchard Gali (2007) 21 70, : (a) ( ) ; (b) ; (c) ; (d),(2006),,,, ;(2004) ; (2006) ; (2007) C2D,,,,10 %, 0135 %, 0105 %,,,,, :, 2005 8 91
:,,: ( ), ; 11 Rasche Tatom(1981) C2D OECD GNP, C2D, Ram Ramsey(1989) 21 Darby (1982) ARIMA GNP GNP Hamilton (1983) VAR,Burbidge Harrison (1984) VAR VAR,, ECM 31,,,,, : ;,,,, ( ),,, (1999),,,,,,,, 30 % 40 %,,,CGE 92
2008 11 ( ) CGE,CGE, : ;, ;,,, ( ), CGE CGE 60,, 80,CGE, IMF ( GEM),, BoC2GEM (Lalonde and Muir,2007) 1993 CGE PRIMES, 1997 1998,1997 WIAGEM 25 14 CGE, MIT EPPA ( Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis) (ABARE) GTEM( Global Trade and Environment Model) CGE CGE, (2008) CGE,,,CGE, ( ) CGE CGE,(SAM),,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4),, ; (5),,,,,, 42 13,, :,,,, 93
:,, (1), 1 2002 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 313431 313431 2 191572 52571 19120 43632 1933 28207 337035 3 58950 58950 4 45446 45446 5 58950 3755 12489 4502 79696 6 37610 1259 38869 7 17462 2598 6811 3636 30507 8 19479 20377 4316 44172 9 439 1493 1933 10 27028 4081 31109 11 313431 343056 58950 45446 79300 37996 29197 43632 1933 28207, (2007), RAS (Cross2Entropy),, :, ;, RAS,GAMS Minos5, 2006 ( ) CGE CGE (1 ),, :,, () ( ),,,, CGE, :,,,, :, CGE, : (2008) 94
2008 11 1 CGE 11 : Π,, ; 0,, a a i X p i a i VA a i i = a a i ( + (1 - a i ) IN T a i i ) 1Π a i (1),VA, INT, a i 21,,, : a c i X S i = a c i ( i M - c i i + (1 - i ) D - c i i ) - 1Π c i (2), M, c i, D i 31 CGE,,,, : P S i X S i = P D i D i + P m i M i (3) 41,,,,,, 51 : : C i = [ H ih Y H h (1 - mps h ) (1 - t H h ) ]ΠP S i (4) h : G i = G i govtot (5) : P S i K i = shr i INV ES T (6), ih, govtot, K i, shr i 61, 95
:,,,,,, ;, : 70 %, 20 %,,, CGE, 3,3, 20 % 2006 GAMS (Version 2215), MPSGE,(Mix Complementary Program, MCP), PATH ( ),,2,,,3 4 2 20 % 20. 019 20. 012 0. 200 0. 004 20. 010 20. 060 20. 011 20. 009 20. 014 20. 008 20. 014 20. 025 20. 007 40 % 20. 026 20. 020 0. 200 0. 007 20. 015 20. 097 20. 019 20. 017 20. 021 20. 009 20. 020 20. 033 20. 010 60 % 20. 032 20. 025 0. 200 0. 010 20. 020 20. 126 20. 025 20. 023 20. 027 20. 010 20. 025 20. 041 20. 012 80 % 20. 037 20. 029 0. 200 0. 014 20. 024 20. 148 20. 030 20. 028 20. 032 20. 010 20. 029 20. 047 20. 013 100 % 20. 041 20. 031 0. 200 0. 018 20. 026 20. 165 20. 034 20. 032 20. 036 20. 010 20. 033 20. 052 20. 015 :, ( ) 2,,,,,, 2002 SAM : (1) :SAM 2006,, SAM ; (2) :,,( ),3 2002 SAM, 3 ( ), 96
2008 11 4,, 3 20 % 20. 002 27. 23E24 0. 200 0. 003 0. 006 0. 068 0. 004 0. 004 0. 005 5. 292E24 26. 64E24 28. 14E24 22. 89E24 40 % 20. 003 20. 001 0. 400 0. 006 0. 010 0. 121 0. 006 0. 006 0. 009 9. 91E24 20. 002 20. 002 22. 89E24 60 % 20. 004 20. 001 0. 600 0. 008 0. 013 0. 163 0. 008 0. 009 0. 012 0. 001 20. 003 20. 003 22. 44E24 80 % 20. 005 20. 001 0. 800 0. 010 0. 016 0. 196 0. 010 0. 011 0. 015 0. 002 20. 003 20. 004 21. 58E24 100 % 20. 005 20. 001 1. 000 0. 012 0. 018 0. 222 0. 011 0. 013 0. 017 0. 002 20. 004 20. 005 23. 92E25 :, ( ) 4 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % 20. 008 20. 012 20. 016 20. 019 20. 021,, 24. 85E204 20. 003 20. 005 20. 006 20. 007,,, 5, 6,7 5 20 % 20. 049 1. 000 20. 016 20. 016 20. 026 20. 031 20. 029 20. 016 20. 018 20. 035 20. 035 20. 058 20. 036 40 % 20. 054 1. 000 20. 027 20. 026 20. 037 20. 048 20. 053 20. 022 20. 023 20. 038 20. 042 20. 061 20. 040 60 % 20. 058 1. 000 20. 036 20. 036 20. 047 20. 063 20. 074 20. 029 20. 028 20. 041 20. 047 20. 064 20. 044 80 % 20. 062 1. 000 20. 044 20. 044 20. 056 20. 076 20. 094 20. 034 20. 032 20. 043 20. 052 20. 067 20. 048 100 % 20. 065 1. 000 20. 051 20. 052 20. 064 20. 088 20. 111 20. 039 20. 036 20. 045 20. 057 20. 070 20. 051 5,,,,,,, 6 20 % 27. 22E24 0. 200 20. 001 0. 003 0. 004 0. 008 0. 031 0. 002 25. 66E24 26. 52E25 20. 004 20. 004 22. 19E24 40 % 20. 004 0. 400 20. 002 0. 004 0. 006 0. 013 0. 059 0. 002 20. 002 20. 002 20. 008 20. 008 20. 001 60 % 20. 006 0. 600 20. 003 0. 005 0. 007 0. 018 0. 085 0. 001 20. 003 20. 003 20. 011 20. 011 20. 002 80 % 20. 009 0. 800 20. 004 0. 006 0. 009 0. 023 0. 109 0. 001 20. 004 20. 004 20. 014 20. 013 20. 004 100 % 20. 011 1. 000 20. 004 0. 007 0. 011 0. 028 0. 132 0. 001 20. 005 20. 005 20. 017 20. 016 20. 005 6,, : 97
:,,7 ( ) 7 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % 20. 003 20. 01 20. 016 20. 021 20. 026, 20. 009 20. 014 20. 019 20. 023 20. 027,(Davis and Haltiwanger, 2001), (1),, 2 5,, (2), 100 %,411 %, 615 %, 216 % 614 %, 314 % 1111 %, ;,, 115,, 2 3 ; 3,2006 70 %, 20 % (3), 2 5,,,, :,, ( ), 016, 0182,,,,,, (4) 100 %,, 1615 %,, 3 %; 100 %,, 1111 %,, 98
2008 11, 3,, 100 % 1312 %, 218 %,1 %,, ( ),, (5),,,, 3,,, 4, :,, 70,,,,,, GDP, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 45,,,30,, 99
:,,,,, :, 7 %,2020 10,, 2006,,,2007 1,,,,,,,,,?,,?,,,,,,,,,2006 : CGE, 11,2006 : :,5,2008 :,5,2008 :,,2008 :,,2005 :(CGE), 1,2007 :, 4,2007 :, 2,1999 :,6,2006 : 1996 2005, 4,2004 :,12 Barrell, Ray and Olga Pomerantz,2004, Oil Prices and the World Economy, NIESR Discussion Paper July, www. niesr. ac. uk. Barsky, Robert B. and Lutz Kilian,2001, Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative, NB ER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 16, PP : 137 183. Bernanke B. S. and I. Mihov. 1998, Measuring Monetary Policy, Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 (3) : 869 902. Blanchard, Oliver and Jordi Gali,2007, The Macroeconomics Effects of Oil Price Shocks : Why Are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?, Working Papers 0711 (2007), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Boschen, J. F., and L. O. Mills. 1995, The Relation Between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy. Economic Inquiry 33 (1) :24 44. Burbidge, J., and A. Harrison. 1984, Testing for the Effects of Oil2Price Rises Using Vector Autoregression, International Economic Review 25 : 459 484. Darby, M. R. 1982, The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession, American Economic Review 72 : 738 751. Davis, S. J., and J. Haltiwanger. 2001, Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Response to Oil Price Changes, Journal of Monetary 100
2008 11 Economics 48 : 465 512. Hamilton, J. D.,1983, Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War. Journal of Political Economy, 91 :228 248. Hamilton, J. D. 1988, A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle, Journal of Political Economy 96 : 593 617. Hooker, Mark A., 2002, Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 540 561. Katayama,Munechika.,2007, Declining Effects of Oil2price Shocks,http :ΠΠecon. ucsd. eduπ m1katayaπpaperπoilshock. pdf. Lalonde, Ren and Dirk Muir,2007, The Bank of Canadaπs Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC2GEM), International Department Bank of Canada, 2007. Lee, K., and S. Ni.,2002, On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks : A Study Using Industry Level Data, Journal of Monetary Economics 49 : 823 852. Parks, Richard W.,1978, Inflation and Relative Price Variability, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, No. 1. Ram, R., and D. D. Ramsey. 1989, Government Capital and Private Output in the United States ; Additional Evidence, Economics Letters 30 : 223 226. Rasche, R. H., and J. A. Tatom. 1981, Energy Price Shocks, Aggregate Supply and Monetary Policy : The Theory and the International Evidence, in K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer, eds., Supply Shocks, Incentives and National Wealth, Carnegie2Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 14 : 9 93. The Impact of Energy Price Increases on Macro2economy : An Analyses based on CGE Method Lin Boqiang and Mou Dunguo (China Center for Energy Economics Research, Xiamen University) Abstract: In recent years, we have seen great increase in energy prices. The impacts of energy price increases on Western countriesπ economy drew great attention, and Western scholars did a large number of related research. However, very few researches on the subject were done in China. Different studies have shown that energy prices have contraction effects on economy. Since 1993, China became a net oil imported country. Recent oil price increase is the first time for China to face the oil price shock. Coal prices have also kept rising in recent years. What kinds and how great of the impact will coal and oil price increases have on Chinaπs economy are highly related with the Chinaπs economic characteristics, and both are import questions need great research effort to support macro2policy decision making. This paper studies these questions, particularly comparisons of coal and oil price impacts using computable general equilibrium (CGE) method, and therefore fills the research gap. The results show that the impacts of energy price increase have contraction effects, and the levels of contraction are different significantly across industries. This will not only affects the economic growth but also impel the industrial structure change. For most industries in China, the contraction effects of coal are 2 to 3 times that of oil for the same price increase, and conclusion holds even for the less energy2intensive service industries. The impact differences of coal and oil are in line with the observed energy consumption structure of China, which coal takes 70 % and oil takes 20 % of the primary energy consumption. This paper put forward some suggestions on how to deal with the energy price increases. Key Words : Oil Price ; Coal Price ; Contraction Effect ; Industrial Structure JEL Classification :D580, Q430 ( : ) (: ) 101