20 90
6
1...1 1.1...1 1.1.1...1 1.1.2...3 1.2...6 1.2.1...6 1.2.2...7 2...8 2.1...9 2.1.1...9 2.1.2...11 2.2...13 2.2.1...13 2.2.2...15 2.3...17 2.3.1...17 2.3.2...20 3...21 3.1...22 3.1.1...22 3.1.2...25 3.2...26 3.2.1...26 3.2.2...28
3.2.3...30 3.3...32 3.3.1...32 3.3.2...34 3.3.3...39 4...42 4.1...42 4.1.1...43 4.1.2...45 4.2...46 4.2.1 IMD...46 4.2.2...47 4.2.3...48 5...49...53
20 1 1.1 1.1.1 (V. Pareto)1906 1
X Allocation efficiency efficiency of economic system, efficiency of production, utilization efficiency of resource, 1966 X 1996 7 1390, 1992,868 1993 6 2
1.1.2 1999 2 Sumuelson, Economics, McGRAW-HILL Book Company, NEWYORK, 1989, pp971., 1979 126-128 3
20 50 Patrick1966Goldsmith1969Mckinnon 1973Shaw1973Mathieson1980Fry19821997 -- 1994 37 Patrick H.T1966Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped CountriesEconomic Development and Cultural Change14pp.174-189. 4
Hedge Speculative (Ponzi),,, 5
1.2 1.2.1 20 60 1960 19661969 1966 1973 1983 6
FIR GDP 1.2.2 Patrick1966 W 1994 3 1994 44 7
2 Patrick H.T1966Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped CountriesEconomic Development and Cultural Change14pp.174-189. 8
20 2.1 1978 210.6 300 37.15% 1978 2.1.1 1979 1979-1984 1985-1990 80 9
90 2000 12.4 6.4 13.5 GDP 150.56% 1979 22.7 2-1-1 % 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 M2/GDP 39.33 37.15 39.79 44.43 50.01 46.58 48.86 61.02 57.99 65.88 69.64 67.66 M0/GDP 6.10 5.85 6.63 7.66 8.15 8.29 8.93 11.05 11.02 11.94 12.16 14.29 (M2-M0)/GDP 33.22 31.30 33.16 36.77 41.86 38.29 39.93 49.98 46.98 53.93 57.48 53.36 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 M2/GDP 70.67 82.46 89.51 95.36 100.71100.35103.89 112.09 121.70131.36146.12150.56 M0/GDP 13.86 14.26 14.70 16.28 16.93 15.59 13.48 12.97 13.61 14.08 16.40 16.39 (M2-M0)/GDP 56.81 68.20 74.81 79.08 83.78 84.76 90.40 99.13 108.08 117.27 129.72134.17 80 1981 98.5% 80 1989 16.8% 7.9% 0.8% 90 2000 1.6 10.5% 10
2-1-2 19792000 FIR 1979 2162.6 2162.6 53.6 1980 2624.3 2624.3 58.1 1981 3219.5 3170.8 48.7 66.2 1982 3710.9 3618.4 92.5 70.1 1983 4259.0 4124.9 134.1 71.8 1984 5547.0 5370.4 176.6 77.4 1985 6666.3 6398.4 242.2 25.7 74.4 1986 8827.8 8462.4 323.1 42.4 86.5 1987 11131.6 10547.4 517.0 67.1 93.1 1988 13501.7 12470.4 936.5 94.8 90.4 1989 16044.0 14650.6 1270.5 122.9 94.9 1990 19687.0 18360.6 1170.7 155.8 106.1 1991 24315.5 22596.6 1509.2 209.7 112.5 1992 29743.4 27152.7 2247.9 342.9 111.7 1993 41944.4 38173.6 2452.0 862.0 456.9 121.1 1994 54003.6 49594.4 3063.8 969.0 376.4 115.5 1995 66508.4 59461.7 5655.4 938.0 453.3 113.7 1996 83741.1 72867.0 7468.8 2867.0 538.3 123.4 1997 106127.1 90510.2 9640.2 5204.0 772.7 142.5 1998 122992.9 102308.3 13682.7 5746.0 1255.9 157.0 1999 138232.0 110724.8 17887.0 8214.0 1406.2 168.8 2000 153311.6 115861.5 19766.5 16087.5 1596.0 171.5 1985 1985 2.1.2 1979 2000 3 2000 FIR 11
1976 1992 1997 1999 10 2-1-1 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 FIR 0.5 1.7 26 21 2-1-3 FIR 0.5 1.7 1966-1992 1971-1997 1979-2000 26 26 21 IMF International Finance Statistics 19962000 M2M0 GDP 90 90% 12
2-1-4 % 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 100.00 100.00 98.49 97.51 96.85 96.82 95.98 95.86 94.75 92.36 91.32 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 93.26 92.93 91.29 91.01 91.84 89.40 87.01 85.28 83.18 80.10 75.57 80 GDP 80 2.2 2.2.1 13
1997 1996 1995 1997 80 90 p t p t p t = α + = α + = α + n i= 1 β M i n t i + θ i pt i + i= 1 n n n θ i pt i + i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 β i M t i + γ i Gt i + n n n n θ i pt i + i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 β i M t i + γ i Gt i + δ i Yt i + ε t ε t ε t Y M G p 94 GDP 1990-2000 2-2-1 F 90 14
lnm0 lnm1 lnm2 lnsl lntl lnrpi 1.85 2.22 1.38 2.06 2.37 lncpi 1.96 0.77 1.28 1.31 1.27 lnrpi 1.73 2.04 1.68 2.7 2.86 lncpi 3.06 1.21 0.44 1.69 1.53 lnrpi 1.41 1.25 1.32 2.18 2.54 lncpi 1.64 0.88 0.31 2.71 2.62 SL TL 90 2.2.2 80 80 2-- 1983 15
2-2-1 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 /GDP 40.00 30.00 /GDP 20.00 10.00 /GDP 0.00 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 2-2-2 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 (Engle-Granger Two-step Error-Correction Procedure) (Johansen Multivariate Maximum Likelihood Procedure) 19902000 16
2-2-2 lnm0 lnm1 lnm2 lnsl lntl lngdp 6.7 6.38 6.91 7.48 7.62 Engle-GrangerProcedure Johansen Procedure lniy 6.46 5.99 6.81 7.11 7.18 lnhiy 7.03 6.52 7.47 7.69 7.74 lnghy 6.5 6.09 7.07 7.45 7.49 lngdp 158.36 75.3 72.91 45.98 45.72 lniy 152.9 71.49 74.35 44.73 45.41 lnhiy 159.12 71.3 68.46 45.27 45.43 lnghy 151.48 68.46 72.55 45.53 45.77 IY HIY GHY 1% 2.3 20 30 2.3.1 2000 5334.5 GDP 6% 17
2-3-1 1999 13.53% 15.33% 66.28% 10.00% 98.16% 2000 11.98% 13.48% 49.89% 8.92% 88.00% <20% <25% <100% <20% <100% /GDP / / 80 1998 2000 29.31% 2499.3 GDP 2.8% 2-3-2 % ( ) ( ) 1985 5.17 4.52 11.39 1.97 5.14 1986 5.14 5.16 13.59 2.36 6.44 1987 5.34 8.22 21.98 3.63 10.84 1988 5.51 8.74 25.76 3.26 9.91 1989 6.40 8.66 27.53 2.72 8.80 1990 6.52 6.86 21.06 6.48 19.19 1991 6.19 8.83 27.42 7.84 26.30 1992 5.80 11.20 35.80 12.59 44.77 1993 5.33 9.63 34.07 7.73 35.11 1994 6.06 20.27 66.92 9.57 17.18 1995 6.55 22.71 77.67 14.07 26.97 1996 7.29 24.79 91.48 17.71 35.83 1997 8.12 26.83 97.81 22.17 45.38 1998 10.72 36.03 124.49 23.87 48.18 1999 13.76 30.45 96.69 16.71 32.69 2000 16.22 29.31 84.37 16.42 31.46 1998 1000 2700 1999 600 1999 1.4 18
1997 2-3-3 5 5 2-3-4 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1196.9 1315.8 1481.7 1821.6 2207.3 2274.1 2272.2 2465.1 8.8 7.8 7.2 6.4 6.4 4.9 4.2 3.8 8.8 7.8 7.2 6.4 6.5 5.1 4.5 4.0 1996 2-3-4 1989 1996 1998 2700 2001 19
18% 2000 27%--30% 27 2.3.2 -- 2001 1 4 20
3 21
3.1 Credit Rationing 80 Stigliz and Weiss1981 3.1.1 90 1998 22
3-1-1 2000 % 73.20 76.58 72.58 72.32 87.30 68.51 78.65 80.04 76.66 77.25 93.44 80.46 1. 2. 23
3. Loan-size Rationing Number-of-loan Rationing 50% 3-1-2 ( %) <3 35 610 >10 31.14 89.15 92.40 92.10 89.00 83.10 29.86 4.55 2.70 3.50 6.30 5.70 39.00 6.30 4.90 4.40 4.70 11.20 24
182 Neil Gregory and Stoyan Tener, The Financing of Private Enterprise in China Finance & Development, 2001.3 3.1.2 1999 2000 70.81% 47.34% 54.82% 3-1-3 2000 % 60.76 80.86 47.34 54.25 50.15 58.36 54.82 9.77 4.59 13.90 12.10 12.84 9.94 10.27 9.62 9.57 11.78 14.11 11.66 18.21 28.45 11.63 6.66 15.05 12.61 14.86 14.67 17.04 10.26 5.88 12.34 11.37 11.93 10.29 12.15 1 0.57 0.22 0.04 3-1-4 2000 0.57 0.22 0.62 0.11 0.04 3.23 0.73 2.71 0.21 0.09 1.70 0.72 1.63 0.51 0.51 25
2.49 0.52 2.38 0.30 0.16 2.15 0.54 1.97 0.19 0.11 2000 5 62656 32140 51% 1851 22296 69.37% 3.2 3.2.1 80 26
1981 1986 11 140 33.2 35.6 17 1994 100 1995 2424 1424 80 19921993 1993 332 472 10.98% 1993 1998 1997 1998 989 86 1996 1987 27
1997 6 1997 1999 1998 1997-1999 GDP 40% 3-2-1 19952000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 14343.55 31414.74 29587.07 30886.91 34240.27 58682.68 GDP % 24.53 46.28 39.57 38.83 41.73 65.64 1998 1998 3 1999 6 10 3.96% 2.16% 1999 2000 GDP 65.64%1999 23.91 GDP 12 3.2.2 2000 28
26.81 1999 2 1999 47% 29 3-5 40% 5 11% 60% 1997 32.65% 8.4%2000 7 71.4% 67.9% 3-2-1 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 61 3160 2130 820 7 29
3-2-2 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 4 3 2 1 21 14 7 1996 100 1997 1998 1998 1999 2621 85%2000 1142 5% 4% 3.2.3 2000 30
2875.21 1016 1997 1998 1999 2000 3-2-2-220.75-644.21-5.44 17.27-291.75-573.21-5.44 17.27 71.00-71.00-67.71 252.41 1.09-184.50 5.89-3.39 0.99-2.20-73.60 255.80 0.10-182.30-344.37-241.77 7.00 1844.44 247.19-393.17 5.50 1405.80-591.56 151.40 1.50 438.64-5081.28 1010.98 3891.21 1023.50 91.48-160.60-986.68-2241.72 2875.21 88.78 164.40-4094.60 3252.70 1016.00 1023.50 2.70-325.00 1997 2000 13 2000 31
1% 15% 3.3 Yiting Li, 1998 3.3.1 80 32
3-3-1 % 1986 32.47 72.93 15.58 6.22 51.95 20.85 1987 49.34 69.56 25.33 9.77 12.67 15.34 1988 45.03 63.94 15.51 9.16 17.99 13.17 1989 58.56 68.16 15.86 6.25 19.68 12.97 1990 50.04 67.48 16.34 6.43 32.06 14.81 1991 40.44 60.42 9.62 6.73 35.94 18.87 1992 36.35 50.13 4.34 5.59 53.94 32.12 1993 61.79 55.84 0.00 3.94 38.21 29.08 1994 87.55 68.15 0.00 2.84 12.45 20.33 1995 83.40 76.74 0.00 39.73 16.60 15.03 1996 58.25 71.33 33.74 41.05 8.48 9.78 1997 58.39 57.04 35.43 37.57 6.18 5.39 1998 64.48 57.25 33.02 37.76 2.50 4.99 1999 67.21 59.33 30.15 36.29 2.64 4.38 2000 72.94 62.38 25.76 33.68 1.30 3.93 1991 10 2000 5 GDP 54% 2000 11.23% 33
3-3-2 /GDP /GDP / % % % 1992 1048.13 3.93 50.00 1993 3531.01 10.20 276.41 4.36 1994 3690.62 7.89 964.82 2.06 99.78 1.38 1995 3474.00 5.94 937.94 1.60 85.51 0.92 1996 9842.37 14.50 2867.03 4.22 294.34 2.76 1997 17529.23 23.44 5204.43 6.96 856.06 7.99 1998 19505.64 24.52 5745.59 7.22 778.02 6.77 1999 26471.17 32.26 8213.97 10.01 896.83 8.27 2000 48090.94 53.79 16087.52 17.99 1498.52 11.23 3-3-3 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 733.71 512.25 261.53 386.31 563.26 1111.29 925.91 1054.83 1581.52 GDP% 2.75 1.48 0.56 0.66 0.83 1.49 1.16 1.29 1.77 % 8.09 3.62 4.14 5.27 10.37 8.06 9.73 11.85 %8.82 3.95 1.55 1.90 2.41 4.42 3.35 3.58 4.85 3.3.2 1998 1997 34
35
90 3-3-1 2000 8.48% 3-3-1 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 8 1151 1273.36 12 6 5000 1% 1999 36
STPT 3-3-4 100 10 10-20 20-30 30-50 50-100 100 8 25 19 16 16 16 2001 108 37
3-3-2 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 GDP 3-3-3 1998 38
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2000 2001 6 200 20% 2001 635 95 15% 20% 3.3.3 39
2001 2001 1998 2000 40
2001 6 30 95 1.6 3-3-5 19932000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2.40 2.26 2.31 2.41 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.60 0.35 0.32 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.18 0.20 0.20 14.60 14.20 10.80 9.50 9.48 7.36 8.06 7.52 3-3-6 2000 1999 41
x20 10x<20 5x<10 x<5 x0.5 0.3x0.5 0.1x<0.3 x<0.1 1999 954 61 381 278 232 78 219 427 228 2000 954 545 60 273 344 275 81 193 405 273 4 -- 4.1 100% 42
4.1.1 4-1-1 19792000 3500.00 3000.00 2500.00 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 GDP% 0.00-500.00-1000.00 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 0.0-5.0 80 1978-1980 11.419.6 14.8 36.43% -- 80 80 19861988 1981-1990 43
98.42% 80 -- 90 90 23 1994 94.55% 1978-2000 2.39 4-1-1 19782000 19781980 36.9652 2.7536 7.5824 36.4333 1.6623 2.7633 0.9694 0.0336 0.0011 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 19811990 19912000 35.4700 2.3963 5.7423 38.6200 2.5607 6.5573 0.9842 0.0258 0.0007 0.9455 0.0299 0.0009 44
4.1.2 90 1993 45
4-1-2 19842000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 19921999 4.2 4.2.1 IMD 80 46
IMD IMD IMD 1999 290 27 4-2-1 IMD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11 9 10 12 13 15 14 16 17 18 21 19 22 20 23 26 24 27 25 4.2.2 IMD 1999 47 36 2000 42 11 4-2-2 1999 29 36 6 18 16 42 36 25 27 2000 31 42 18 35 16 42 37 28 29 IMD GDP 47
1999 2000 15 20 2000 4-2-3 1999 2000 1999 2000 8 47 47 12 21 47 47 13 33 45 47 GDP 14 11 45 46 26 45 45 28 43 4.2.3 22 1994 IMD 41 39 1999 47 36 48
5 20 80 90 49
80 90 90 90 1998 50
90 1999 2000 IMD 51
20 52
1..S. 1989 2. 1999 3. 2000,225-227 4. 1979 5. 1998 5 6. 1995 7. 1997 1997 8. 1994 9. 1995 6 10. 2000 2000 11. 1987 1987 12. 1993 6 13.. 2001 14. 1999 15. 2001 16. 1997 1997 6 17. 2001 2001 8 53
18., 1998 19. 1996 20. 2000 2000 21. 19841993 1996 22. 1997 10 23..G..S. 1994 24. 1992 1992 25. 1999 1999 3 1. Douglas W. Diamond, 1991, Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.99, No.4. 2. Feder, G. 1983, On Exports and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, 12, pp59-73, 1983. 3. Mathieson, D.J 1980, Financial Reform and Stabilization Policy in a Developing Economy, Journal of Development Economics, 7(3), pp359-395, 1980. 4. Maxwell J. Fry, Money, Interest and Banking in Economic Development, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1988. 5. McKinnon, R.I 1973, Money and Capital in Economic Development, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C, 1973. 6. Patrick H.T1966Financial Development and Economic Growth in 54
Underdeveloped CountriesEconomic Development and Cultural Change 14pp.174-189. 7. Philip Arestis & Victoria Chick, Finance, Development and Structural ChangePost-Keynesian Perspectives, Edward Elgar Press, 1995. 8. Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, 1998, Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth, American Economic Review, Vol.88, No.3. 9. Yiting Li, 1998, Middlemen and Private Information, Journal of Monetary Economics, 42, pp.131-159. 55