Morning Research Department Table of Contents 目录 1 June 2016 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Environmental Protection Sector: The State Council Released Action Plan for Prevention and Treatment of Soil Pollution 环保行业 : 国务院发布 < 土壤污染防治行动计划 > Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 Type of Report 报告类型 Fixed Income Title 标题 Hong Kong Market Fixed Income Research Focus Issue Date 31 May 2016 固定收益香港市场固定收益焦点 2016 年 5 月 31 日 Appendices:Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附 : 行业和公司焦点, 最新报告摘要中文版 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 29,000 16,000 27,000 25,000 14,000 12,000 23,000 10,000 21,000 19,000 8,000 17,000 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Feb/16 May/16 Source: Bloomberg 6,000 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Feb/16 May/16 Source: Bloomberg See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6
Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据 Country 国家 Europe 欧洲 U.S. 美国 Indicator 指标名称 Euro-zone CPI Core yoy 欧元区核心 CPI ( 同比 ) S&P/Case-Shiller 20 Home Price Indices (mom, SA) 标普 / 凯斯席勒 20 城市房价指数 ( 环比, 经季调 ) Source: S&P/Case-Shiller, Eurostat, Bloomberg. 数据来源 : 标普 / 凯斯席勒 欧盟统计局 彭博 Data Period 数据期间 May 5 月 March 3 月 Current Value 当期值 MoM / QoQ 环比变动 YoY 同比变动 Market Consensus 市场一致预期 0.8% 0.1ppts (0.1ppts) 0.8% 0.85% 0.14ppts (0.16ppts) 0.77% See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6
Industry and Company Focus Environmental Protection Sector: The State Council Released Action Plan for Prevention and Treatment of Soil Pollution Analyst: Gary Wong What happened: The State Council released Action Plan for Prevention and Treatment of Soil Pollution ( Soil Ten ), specifying that by 2020, the trend of nationwide soil pollution should be contained, overall soil environmental quality should remain stable, agricultural and construction soil environmental safety should be basically controlled, soil environmental risk should be basically under control, safe utilization rate of contaminated farmland should reach 90%, safe utilization rate of contaminated land should reach 90%; by 2030, safe utilization rate of contaminated farmland should reach 95%, safe utilization rate of contaminated land should reach 95%. Comments and Views: According to the Survey of National Soil Pollution Status jointly released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Ministry of Land and Resources dated 17 th April 2014, national rate of soil quality not reaching the satisfactory level was 16.1%, of which the farmland rate of soil quality not reaching the satisfactory level was 19.4%. If the target of 90% safety rate is to be reached even for farmland only by 2020, a total of approximately 200 million mu of farmland should need to be treated. At RMB35,000/mu, annual spending should reach RMB1.4 trillion in the next 5 years. We think the target of Soil Ten is very aggressive. Investment suggestion: There is lack of direct beneficiaries of the Soil Ten policy in Hong Kong market. We think a proxy should be Dongjiang Environmental Protection (00895 HK), which is a leading company in hazardous waste treatment and has a minority stake in the NEEQ listed Suntime Environment Remediation. We think the Soil Ten policy should bring more expansion room for the Company. Current valuation is attractive. Maintain Accumulate and reiterate outperform for the sector. Latest Reports Nil. See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 6
Chinese Translation 中文翻译 行业和公司焦点 环保行业 : 国务院发布 < 土壤污染防治行动计划 > 分析员 : 黄家玮 事件描述 : 国务院发布 土壤污染防治行动计划 ( 下称 土十条 ), 明确到 2020 年, 全国土壤污染加重 趋势得到初步遏制, 土壤环境质量总体保持稳定, 农用地和建设用地土壤环境安全得到基本保障, 土壤环境风险得到基本管控, 受污染耕地安全利用率达到 90% 左右, 污染地块安全利用率达到 90% 以上 到 2030 年, 受污染耕地安全利用率达到 95% 以上, 污染地块安全利用率达到 95% 以上 观点评论 : 根据 2014 年 4 月 17 日环保部和国土资源部联合公布了 全国土壤污染状况调查公报, 全国土壤总超标率为 16.1%, 耕地的超标率为 19.4% 以耕地 2020 年要达到 90% 的安全目标计, 未来 5 年内要治理 2 亿亩的耕地 以平均 3.5 万元 / 亩 (50 元 / 平方米 ) 的治理费算, 未来 5 年每年投入的治理费用要达到 1.4 万亿元 我们认为 土十条 的目标相当激进 投资建议 : 港股市场缺乏直接受惠股 比较接近的标的是东江环保 (00895 HK) 其为中国危废处理行业的领导企业之一, 另外参股了于新三板挂牌的土壤修复公司上田环境修复 我们认为 土十条 将为公司带来更大的业务扩展空间 公司现时估值吸引 维持公司的 收集 评级及环保行业的 跑赢大市 评级 最新报告 Nil. See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 6
Research Department 研究部 Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market Strategy, Petrochemicals 主管, 市场策略 石化 liugu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976698 / (852) 25097516 Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费 ( 酒店 ) 博彩 noah.hudson@gtjas.com (86755) 23976684 Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, Infrastructure 环保 基建 gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092616 Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭 电力 wuyichao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976871 Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage, Household Products) 消费 ( 食品饮料 日用品 ) sunny.kwok@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092642 Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合 电子商务 zhaorui@gtjas.com (86755) 23976755 Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market Strategy 市场策略 guqiaoyi@gtjas.com (86755) 23976718 Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 square.chui@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092629 Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料 燃气 kevin.guo@gtjas.com (86755) 23976671 Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信 互联网 ricky.lai@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092603 Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险 债券 dayton.wang@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095347 Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 caozhu013592@gtjas.com (86755) 23976870 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源 电力设备 junjie.zhu@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25097592 Ivan Zhou 周一帆 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流 港口 zhouyifan013593@gtjas.com (86755) 23976685 Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing), Home Appliances 消费 ( 零售 ) 家电 andrew.song@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095313 Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 liufeifan@gtjas.com (86755) 23976672 Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械 建材 xiangyuhao@gtjas.com (86755) 23976725 Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费 ( 服装 ) hongxueyu@gtjas.com (86755) 23976722 Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Research Assistant 研究助理 johnny.wong@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095348 Toliver Ma 马守彰 Research Assistant 研究助理 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25095317 Spencer Fan 范明 Research Assistant 研究助理 fanming@gtjas.com (86755) 23976686 Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Research Assistant 研究助理 wuyuyang@gtjas.com (86755) 23976680 Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Research Assistant 研究助理 gary.ching@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092665 Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理 翻译员 zhaoshuman013399@gtjas.com (86755) 23976681 Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书 翻译员 penny.pan@gtjas.com.hk (852) 25092632 See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 6
Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525 HK), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Xiao Nan Guo Restaurants (03666 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / China Power (02380 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / China U-Ton (06168 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / Shanghai Electric- H shares (02727 HK) / China Wood Optimization (08099 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / CECEP COSTIN New Materials (02228 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Shenzhen Investment (00604 HK) / D&G Technology (01301 HK) / China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / Bosideng (03998 HK) / WH Group (00288 HK) / China All Access (00633 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 2016 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 6