40 1 2016 1 Vol. 40 No. 1 January 2016 69 Population Research 1970 * 121 1970 90 1990 ~ 2005 2006 70 100081 100081 Trends in the Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 Zhang Cuiling Liu Hongyan Wang Xiaofeng Abstract This study examines the trends in and the impact of birth spacing policy on the second birth interval in China since 1970s using the population monitoring data in 121 Chinese counties.the birth spacing policy plays a significant role in regulating people s fertility behaviors thus slowing down population growth in China.Specifically changes in second birth intervals have gone through three stages a long-term stability before 1990s an increase from 1990 to 2005 and a decline since 2006 implying a dynamic relationship with the birth interval regulation.conditions for continuing the current birth spacing policy aiming at later birth longer interval and less children no longer exist.thus the focus on birth spacing needs to be switched from a policy orientation to a health orientation. Keywords Second Birth Interval Birth Spacing Policy Population Monitoring Data Authors Zhang Cuiling is Associate Professor Department of Demographic Data Laboratory China Population and Development Research Center and PhD Candidate Northeast Asian Studies Academy Jilin University Email zcl_cpdrc@ 126.com Liu Hongyan is Professor China Population and Development Research Center Wang Xiaofeng is Professor Northeast Asian Studies Academy Jilin University.

70 40 70 1978 69 3 2002 2013 2014 31 23 8 2011 30 1995 2015 1 1. 1 2011

1 1970 71 50 60 2. 7 ~ 3. 0 1980 2 90 1989 ~ 1990 3. 05 2000 4. 35 2005 1% 5. 15 2013 2000 1980 ~ 2000 1980 2. 29 2000 5. 84 1980 ~ 1984 2. 29 1985 ~ 1992 2. 29 ~ 3. 33 1993 ~ 1997 3. 33 ~ 5 1998 5 2001 / 2006 70 70 2. 12 1995 ~ 2000 5. 02 2005 70 2 10 1985 1995 4. 09 1974 2003 2010 1990 ~ 2000 1990 3. 1 2000 5. 7 2005 1998 5. 21 2002 5. 95 2005 2000 1. 2 2010 1989 1991 2002 1997 Lei Choe 1997 1988 2 2005

72 40 B 2006 2001 2013 5. 85 5. 53 4. 84 3. 88 30. 54% 20% 1981 2005 1 1982 2 1990 2000 1997 2001 / 1985 2000 1. 3 20 70 2000 31

1 1970 73 121 2013 2004 121 2013 5 2013 8111 2013 5. 96% 1 15 ~ 49 2176. 6 121 26. 83% 2013 27. 39% 2 15 ~ 49 1 121 1 2013 Table 1 Age Structure of Married Women of Child bearing Ages in 2013 % 121 2013 15 ~ 19 0. 21 0. 51 20 ~ 24 6. 94 7. 21 25 ~ 29 17. 02 15. 82 30 ~ 34 18. 18 16. 81 35 ~ 39 17. 85 17. 61 40 ~ 44 21. 00 21. 64 45 ~ 49 18. 79 20. 39 1 121 2013 2 2013 0. 822. 2014. 2014 121 7 513. 6 2 7 7 240 121 2000 0. 95 1980 ~ 2000 121 1 3 2 ~ 3 1 2 2013 2013. 2014. 2014 2013 0. 822. 2014. 2014

74 40 2 121 2013 Table 2 Characteristics of Women Who Ever Born Two Children in Database of 121 Population Monitoring Counties in 2013 % 3653575 92. 7 287364 7. 3 3641492 70. 9 1494140 29. 1 15 ~ 19 1668 0. 0 20 ~ 29 256230 6. 5 30 ~ 39 1031337 26. 1 40 ~ 49 1905358 48. 3 50 ~ 59 657344 16. 7 60 + 93203 2. 4 970140 24. 9 2684613 68. 9 206436 5. 3 36235 0. 9 121 2013 Table 3 3 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 from Different Data Source 121 1970 2. 82 2. 5 1971 2. 76 1972 2. 71 1973 2. 58 1974 2. 64 1975 2. 63 2. 02 1976 2. 66 1977 2. 69 1978 2. 72 1979 2. 70 1980 2. 61 2. 29 1. 96 1981 2. 63 2. 44 1982 2. 60 2. 46 1983 2. 52 2. 40 1984 2. 61 2. 48 1985 2. 84 2. 65 1986 3. 10 2. 98 1987 3. 09 3. 13 1988 2. 93 2. 99 1989 2. 92 3. 03 3. 05 1990 2. 85 3. 05 1991 2. 95 3. 13 1992 3. 18 3. 31 1993 3. 45 3. 54 1994 3. 79 3. 86 1995 4. 21 4. 21 1996 4. 51 4. 50 1997 4. 91 4. 92 1998 5. 19 5. 19 1999 5. 58 5. 57 2000 5. 93 5. 84 4. 35

1 1970 75 Figure1 1 Second Birth Interval in China from Different Data Source 1 121 2013 2.. 2013 4 2 2. 1 121 40 1970 ~ 2013 40 90 1990 ~ 2005 2005 3 1970 ~ 1994 2 ~ 3 1970 ~ 1980 2. 6 ~ 2. 8 80 3 90 1995 4 10 2005 7. 1 5. 9 2 2 1970 Figure 2 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 121 2013

76 40 2. 2 2005 2009 1995 1996 ~ 2009 3 3 1970 Figure 3 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 by Major Region 121 2013 2. 3 90 3 90 2005 1970 ~ 1990 20 3 1990 1995 2005 2010 1 4 Figure 4 4 1970 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 by Urban and Rural Residence 121 2013

1 1970 77 2. 4 4 3 3. 82 1 4. 81 1993 3 2006 7 5 5 5 Figure 5 5 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 by Ethnic Group 121 2013 2. 5 1 4 2 2010 4. 59 6 4 2010 2006 5

78 40 Table 4 4 Second Birth Interval by Whether Violating Family-Planning Policy and by Children s Health Condition at Birth 3. 15 554832 4. 29 2041710 5. 01 162447 5. 34 2266208 4. 59 4451517 6. 05 4387 6. 41 5232 121 2013 Table 5 5 Second Birth Interval by Women s Education Level Age of Second Birth and the Number of Induced Abortion between First and Second Births 4. 54 950669 4. 99 2608595 5. 01 194868 5. 33 30686 15 ~ 19 2. 11 46786 20 ~ 24 2. 18 996993 25 ~ 29 3. 70 1557140 30 ~ 34 7. 06 1000919 35 ~ 39 10. 87 281364 40 ~ 44 13. 72 36079 45 ~ 49 10. 20 1916 4. 60 4957531 1 5. 62 176530 2 7. 34 1571 121 2013 3 2006 2001 /

1 1970 79 3. 1 1980 1986 ~ 1990 1993 30 1 6 2002 6 Table 6 Cumulative Number of Provinces Implementing Second Birth Spacing Policy since 1980 1980 1 1989 17 1998 31 2007 24 1981 5 1990 25 1999 31 2008 23 1982 5 1991 27 2000 31 2009 17 1983 5 1992 28 2001 31 2010 17 1984 5 1993 30 2002 30 2011 16 1985 5 1994 30 2003 29 2012 14 1986 6 1995 30 2004 28 2013 13 1987 6 1996 30 2005 28 2014 7 1988 14 1997 30 2006 26 31 / 3 1 4 3 3 5 2 27 28 30 3 3 28 4 28 30 30 2014 31 23 8 7 1 1996

80 40 7 2002 Table 7 Cumulative Number of Provinces Terminating Second Birth Spacing Policy since 2002 2002 1 2003 2 2004 3 2005 3 2006 5 2007 7 2008 8 2009 14 2010 14 2011 15 2012 17 2013 18 2014 23 3. 2 6 1 1980 2. 7 2 80 1980 1988 6 1980 ~ 1990 3 3 1992 1990 3. 05 2005 7. 12 4 2005 2002 2002 2002 2005

1 1970 81 Figure 6 6 Variations in Second Birth Interval and Provinces Establishing Birth Spacing Policy by Year 121 2013 31 / 3. 3 1 1 2 80 90 7 Figure 7 7 Second Birth Interval before and after the Implementation of Birth Spacing Policy 121 2013 8 8 1 1000

82 40 8 Figure 8 Changes in Second Birth Interval of Some Provinces Since 2000 121 2013 8 Table 8 Comparison Table of Year When Birth Interval Starting to Decline and Year When Abolishing Birth Spacing Policy in Some Provinces 2004 2002 2009 2012 2005 2003 2006 2014 2007 2009 2006 2014 2007 2009 2006 2014 2009 2009 2005 2014 2007 2009 2005 2009 2009 2007 2007 2011 2007 121 2013 30 4 1970

1 1970 83 9 2013 2013 9 1970 Figure 9 Changes in age at first and Second Birth and second birth Interval Since 1970 121 2013 4 1989 2011 121 1 3 1 2 3 8 2 2 ~ 3 80 90 2002 3

84 40 4 4 5 6 Table 9 9 The Provinces with Birth Spacing Policy until 2014 and Policy Conditions 4 28 1 4 30 1 3 28 1 4 3 1 4 26 3 35 24 2014 8 24 9

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