26-11-2 862163299571 86213313733 zhouyong2@cjsc.com.cn zhoujt@cjsc.com.cn 27 7 7 25.1 6 25.12 26.5 26.11 2 2 6 7 27 7 7
...1 2...1...2 6...3 7...4...5...7...8...11...11...13...15...18...18...18...19 7...2 7...2...2 7...2 1
1...1 2 GDP...2 3 GDP...2 4 GDP...2 5 GDP...2 6...3 76...4 86...4 9...4 1...5 11 19-1948...6 12191-25...6 13 198-26...7 14 GDP...9 15 GDP...9 16 GDP...9 17 GDP...9 18...1 19 6...1 2 A PE...11 21...12 22 A...12 23...14 24...14 25 6-7...14 26 6-7...14 27 6-7...15 28 6-7...15 29 5...19 3 DAX...19 31 CAC4...19 32 CAC4...19 2
1 26...3 2...5 327...7 4...8 5...8 6...9 7 Granger...13 8 A Granger...13 9...15 1 2...16 11...17 12...18 3
6 26 6 1 7 6 7 A 7 7 7 2 2 6 1
Binswanger Binswanger 2 GDP 3 GDP -15-1 -5 5 1 15 2 25 193 1936 1942 1948 1954 196 1966 1972 1978 1984 199 1996 22-6 -4-2 2 4 6 8 GDP -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 GDP WIND WIND 4 GDP 5 GDP -16-11 -6-1 4 9 14 19 1956 1958 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974-7 -5-3 -1 1 3 5 7 GDP 6 8 1 12 14 16 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24-7 -2 3 8 13 18 GDP WIND WIND Binswanger 2
6 Binswanger 2 6 26 1 26 6 26 3
3G 76 11 17 %86 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 4 8 12 16 2 Dec-9 Dec-91 Dec-92 Dec-93 Dec-94 Dec-95 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec- Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 5 1 15 2 25 WIND WIND 8 6 9 % -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 1956 1958 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 7 6 4
7 1915 81.66% 1916 4.19% 1 11 17 6 69.83% 1 % 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 19 194 198 1912 1916 192 1924 1928 1932 1936 194 1944 1948 1952 1956 196 1964 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 WIND 2 189 8.4% 9 2 2 1923-1925 =1 % % 186 6 187 8 133 2.9 188 12 15 4.1 189 27 225 8.4 19 37 14 3.2 191 61 165 5.1 192 87 143 3.6 2 196 1 26 12.9 198 197 11 25 53.63 198 5
11 17 87.69 63.51% 199 11 4 1.34 19-192 11 19-1948 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 19 192 194 196 198 191 1912 1914 1916 1918 192 1922 1924 1926 1928 193 1932 1934 1936 1938 194 1942 1944 1946 1948 WIND 12191-25 4 3 32.6 24.3 44.2 2 1 191-1929 1929-1966 1966-2 21 2 23 3 23 25.32% 6
13 198-26 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 WIND 26 27 1 1-15 327 A IPO 15 2 1 11.5 2 27.5 1 15 81 5 324 1 4 1112-15 3 3 A 5.81 7
5 56.56% 4 ( ) ( ) % 857.HK 1.62 1.62 21.76 941.HK 1.33 2.95 15.14 939.HK.87 3.82 9.6 2628.HK.48 4.3 4.74 3328.HK.33 4.63 3.17 883.HK.29 4.92 2.7 1 5.81 56.56 2 1%2%3%4% 113 226 339 452 5 1% 2% 3% 4% 5.66% 11.31% 16.97% 22.62% 113.12 226.23 339.35 452.46 2 27 27 27 GDP 14-17 6 1992 2 26 8
14 GDP 15 GDP -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24-2 -1 1 2 3 4 GDP -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 GDP WIND WIND 16 GDP 17 GDP -16-11 -6-1 4 9 14 1956 1958 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974-7 -5-3 -1 1 3 5 7 GDP -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26-5 5 1 15 2 GDP WIND WIND 6 1992 1993-1995 1996 1997 1998-1999 2 21-21 23-24 25-26 9
GDP 9.5% 7 GDP 9.6% GDP 9.5% 2%15%12.5% 7 GDP 9.5% 18 3 2 1 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 21-1 -2-3 19 6 5 4 FAI 3 2 1-1 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 WIND 7 7 GDP 9.5% OECD OECD OECD 1
2 A PE 5 1 15 2 25 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan- Sep- May-1 Jan-2 Sep-2 May-3 Jan-4 Sep-4 May-5 Jan-6 Sep-6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 A PE 7 A A-H A A 11
21 WIND A A A 22 A 5 1 15 2 25 3 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 65 WIND A A 12
A Granger Granger A Granger 7 Granger Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Sample: 1 5 Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability DJ does not Granger Cause HS 4595 349.294. HS does not Granger Cause DJ 2.41654.8934 8 A Granger Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Sample: 1 5 Lags: 2 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability SZ does not Granger Cause HS 3667 1.55816.2166 HS does not Granger Cause SZ 4.95965.76 23 24 6 6 6 7 1965-1974 49 21% 1968 1 1974 8 25 26 3 13
23 24 49-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85-91 1968 1972 1976 5 1 15 2 25 2 4 6 8 1 12 25 6-7 26 6-7 1 9 8 7 35 3 25 6 5 2 4 15 3 2 1 1 5 1959 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1968 1969 197 1959 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1968 1969 197 14
27 28 196 5 27 6-7 28 6-7 5 1 15 2 25 3 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 1 2 3 4 5 6 196 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 197 1971 1972 1973 1974 7 9 15
A 27 A A IPO 1 A 9 3 7% 3 2.25% 28.7 11.5 33 2.7% 3 A 268.8 2.26% 2 1 2 A 3 9 6.86% 596.6218 4.55% 416.9292 3.18% 33.5 2.52% A 37.948 2.34% 32.5973 2.31% 279.4746 2.13% 268.8 2.5% 261.632 1.99% 259.5696 1.98% 246.415 1.88% 237.12 1.81% 195.1765 1.49% 178.191 1.36% 158.877 1.21% 147.728 1.13% 146.4586 1.12% S A 144.8824 1.1% 16
131.4512 1.% 114.6676.87% Wind 11 Wind 3 3 3 9 17
9 24 2 12 2 DAX 12 24 2.7723.495 24 2 -.565-.4569 12 2 12 12 2 24 2 24 2 5 -.7842 -.888.683 -.4246.4754 -.374.521.9891 DAX.7723 -.565.495 -.4569 -.15 -.4556 -.481.6834 CAC4 -.7765 -.567 -.51 -.1683 -.158.312 -.8526 -.1573 1.8152 -.6245 -.1376 -.4688.712 -.8553.8564.8212.931.9866.5812.4936 KOSPI2 -.2349.9541.4167.3233 -.8261.95 -.5748.792.873 -.383 -.32 -.599 -.8284.948.4374 -.8883 Nitfy.475 -.6146 -.253.5217.6882 -.7494 -.997.614 225 -.935.763 -.5238.1671 -.731 -.9247.3924 -.9329 1 2 2 WIND 6 18
CAC4 1 1 29 5 3 DAX 122 12 118 116 114 112 11 18 16 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 17 165 16 155 15 145 14 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 31 CAC4 32 CAC4 154 152 15 148 146 144 142 14 1 4 7 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 175 17 165 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 3 19
7 7 7 27 7 7 7 2
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