021-50588666-8110 zhangzhj@ccnew.com 2006 6 6 002051 8.28 9.2 20060631 2005 2006 E 2007E 644 773 928 % 12.8 20 20 7089 8748 10570 % 0.46 23.41 20.82 0.37 0.46 0.55 NA NA NA 7.4 6000 6 5 6 19 (2005 12 31 ) 2.06 % 18.09 1.26 19000 05 5.13 3 20% 46% 05 18.09% 06 9.48% 06 0.46 18 20 8.28 9.2 8.68 021-50588666-8113 021-50587779 1600 18F 200122
1. 2005 ENR 225 47 2004 156 2005 5 26 1 % % 1 11788 90.68% 62.04% 2 662 5.09% 3.48% 3 200 1.54% 1.05% 4 150 1.15% 0.79% 5 100 0.77% 0.53% 6 50 0.38% 0.26% 7 50 0.38% 0.26% 8 6000 0.00% 31.58% 19000 100.00% 100.00% 2. 2.1 20% 2002 2005 25% 23% WTO 2
2-3 20% 1 2002 2005 % 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2.2 3 2003 2005 5 86% 93% 2 2003 2005 % 2003 2004 2005 74 45 25 13 47 66 9 5 5 1 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 2.3 3
360 2003 70% 2003 67% 2.4 20% 2006 4 30 12 41,301 7 9 200 20 67% 33% 67% 70% 4 3 22 3-5 20% 3 2,050 2004.03 1,591 2004.03 5,926 2004.09 2,990 2004.12 6,717 2005.04 3,250 2005.04 8,030 2005.06 774 2005.11 1,988 2005.12 42 2006.01 163 2006.03 7,780 2006.04 4
03 04 13% 60% 25% 4 2003 2005 2003 2004 2005 50384 57116 64426 NA 13.36% 12.80% 15587 15786 16952 NA 1.28% 7.39% 7204 7056 7088 NA -2.05% 0.45% 29780 30977 23955 2.5 3. 3.1 3 G 40% 5 600970 5.42 20.47 1.19 000151 3.31 2.91 0.48 002051 1.39 2.47 0.73 3.2 80% 81% 64% 48% 5
6 (%) 600970 1.15 0.89 80.93 000151 1.05 0.83 62.25 002051 1.33 0.65 64.21 3.3 2003 30.9% 2005 26.3% 25% 23% 7 (%) (%) (%) 600970 12.13 11.01 6.36 000151 5.33 15.09 11.25 002051 18.09 26.31 13.85 4. 4.1 3 8 % 1 3498 17000 3.5 10 2785 9.63 2 2617 13000 2.5 10 2216 10.24 3 10000 20000 1.5 3 7020 8.49 4 6242 56242 4.2 2003 6
10% 90% 1 15% 1500 85% 8500 9.5 2003 6 1500 95 40 5. 9: 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 64426 77311 92774 111328 % 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 16952 18555 22266 25606 % 9.45% 20.00% 15.00% 7089 8748 10570 11645 % 23.41% 20.82% 10.18% % 26.31% 24.00% 24.00% 23.00% % 11.00% 11.32% 11.39% 10.46% 10: 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 0.37 0.46 0.56 0.61 1.26 1.06 0.56 0.57 2.06 4.86 5.42 6.03 % 18.09% 9.48% 10.27% 10.17% % 0 0 0 0 % 64.21% 49.14% 50.68% 51.86% P/E NA NA NA NA P/B NA NA NA NA 5.1 7
11 8 2005 2006 2007 2008 21041 87701 98818 110297 15411 20906 25087 30104 615 697 836 1003 8368 8368 8368 8368 48111 44752 53702 65290 93547 162423 186811 215063 50 50 50 50 16892 17492 18212 18956 909 2628 4413 6271 15983 14864 13799 12684 0 150 180 186 15860 14996 13960 12851 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109457 177469 200821 227964 0 2590 3367 4377 0 0 0 0 44744 51513 57952 65760 ( ) 25988 30627 36193 42873 1213 0 0 0 416 416 416 416 70282 85146 97928 113426 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 70282 85146 97928 113426 0 0 0 0 13000 19000 19000 19000 7002 45402 45402 45402 15273 17023 19137 21466 3900 10898 19354 28670 39175 92323 102893 114538 109457 177469 200821 227964 12 2005 2006 2007 2008 64426 77311 92774 111328 47474 58757 70508 85723 0 0 0 0 16952 18555 22266 25606 75 72 72 72 3498 4639 5566 6680 4460 4252 5103 6123 964-261 -411-434 8105 9998 12080 13309 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8119 9998 12080 13309 1030 1250 1510 1664 0 0 0 0 7089 8748 10570 11645
13 2006 2007 2008 8748 10570 11645 1719 1785 1858 1379 276 331-261 -411-434 0 0 0 0 0 0 8679-1541 -2616 20158 10680 10786-750 -750-750 47251 1188 1444 66659 11117 11479 21041 87701 98818 87701 98818 110297 5.2 G G 18-20 8.28-9.2 14 PE PB ( ) 600970 31 4.59 0.74 5.07 29.1 000151 21 1.14 0.17 3.12 3.54 6 9 10 2.5 5.3 DCF 0% 9.5% 6% 8.68 9
15 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 5.00% 16.70 18.06 19.77 21.96 24.88 6.00% 13.87 14.74 15.78 17.06 18.66 7.00% 11.85 12.44 13.13 13.95 14.93 8.00% 10.34 10.76 11.25 11.80 12.45 9.50% 8.68 8.95 9.25 9.59 9.97 10.00% 8.24 8.48 8.74 9.03 9.36 11.00% 7.48 7.66 7.86 8.08 8.33 12.00% 6.85 6.99 7.15 7.32 7.51 13.00% 6.32 6.43 6.56 6.69 6.84 14.00% 5.86 5.96 6.06 6.16 6.28 15.00% 5.47 5.55 5.63 5.72 5.81 6. 4 05 18% 06 9% 10
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