33 5 2009 9 Vol1 33, No15 September 2009 42 Population Research 60 : 60,, 1/ 3,,,, ( 1970 ) (1970 1990 ) (1990 5 ) (2006 ), 1954 6 1964 7,1974 9,1994 12,2004 13, 1 10 5, 7, 10 2008 20 %, ( PRB,2008),,, 10 %(60 ), 1999,,, 1. 60, 12. 04 %, 1 ;, 9. 16 (15 59 ), 69. 01 %,, ;, 120 ( = 100),,,, 2,,, ;, 60 ( ) 60, 60,,
5 60 43,,,,, 1972 ; 60, 60,,, 1, 30, 6 10,,,, 1. 1 1952,,, IU SSP,,,,,,, 1/ 5,,,,, 1952,,,, 3p, pop ulation, poverty, pollution (,, ), 3p IU SSP,, 1. 2,,,,,,,,,,,, :, : : (,1955),,
44 33,,,,,,,,, 1. 3, 20 1954, 6, 4. 5,,,,,, 1957 6,,,,, (,1957),,,, 1959 1960,, 1. 4,,,,,,,,,,,, 10 ;,, 1957,, 6. 5,1956,,,,, < [ 55 ]045 > : (,1997),, 1957 2 :,, 10 ;,, (,1997),1956 9 :,,,,, 2 30,,,, ;,,,, 15
5 60 45,! 2. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, GDP - -,,,,, ;, ; 2. 2, 30, 5. 8, 5 2. 5 100,,, 6,,,, ( ),,,,,,, 20,,,,,,, 2. 3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
46 33,,, 2000,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2000,, ;,,,,,,,,,,, 2005 2006,, 300,,,,,,,,,,,, 2006 12 17,,,,,,, 2. 4 30,,, ;,,,,,,,,,, 70, 3000,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 3,
5 60 47 200,,,,,, 70,,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,, HDI( ) PQL I( ),,,,,, ;, ;, 21,,,,,, ( ),2008 13. 28 (,2009), 1/ 5, 1/ 4 60,, 20 70 72,, 6,,,, 1 1949, 5. 4,, 1. 1 20 40 50, 1949, (crude deat h rate) 20,,1950 1955 25. 1, 40. 8, 39. 3, 42. 3, 195 (UN,2007) 1949, 20,
48 33 62 %, 1949 20 1970 7. 6, 80, 20,,1959 1961, 1960, 25. 43, 10,,1966 9,1969 8 :,,, ;,, ;,,,, 20 70, 1970 1977, 7. 6 6. 87, 20 90,,,,, :, (2007), 1965 1970 80. 8 1990 1995 29. 9,1981 34. 68,1995 33. 03 1995, 70. 8 (,2003) 20 90, 2000, 28. 41, 71. 4 2000 2005, 75. 6, 64. 1,2005 73 (,2006),, 1. 2,, 1949, 20 1970, 7. 6, 33, 20 70 : (20 70 ) : 1970 1978, 33. 43 % 17. 82 % ; 5. 81 2. 75,, :,, ; 1972,,, (20 80 ) :,, 2. 87 (1982 ), 1987,,, (2007),,2008
5 60 49, 1990,,,, (20 90 ) : 90, 80, 1992, (2. 05), 1993,, 1. 7 1. 8,,, : 1992,, ;, ; ; ;,, 1. 3 1949,, ( 1) 1 (1950 2007 ) :,. (2007),2008 (1) (20 50 60 ),, 20 50, 1958 1959, 20, 1. 3, 2000, 1300 1959 1961,,,, 1962,,,1963 43, 3000, 1962 1969, 25, 2600, 1900 50 60
50 33,1969 8. 07, 1949 2. 65 (2) (20 70 ) 20 70, 50 60,,, 1970, 25. 83, 33. 43 1978 18. 25,,1978 12 70 2200 1300 (3) (20 80 ) 20 80, 50 60, 1979 11. 61 1987 16. 61, 1989 15 1980 1989, 1786 2400, 1980 1163 1987 1793, 1700,, (4) (20 90 ) 20 90, 1992, 80,,, 1989 2414 1999 1834,,,, 6. 46 6. 70, 80, 1999 8. 18, 1989 46 %, 1025, 1989 39 % (5) (2000 ) 21, 2000 2007,, 14. 03 7. 58 12. 10 5. 17, 957 681, 793, 20 90 40 %, :,, 40 ;,,,,, 2, :,, 20, 1949 20 90 1. 8, 50, 2/ 3, 1/ 4,,, 1995, 70. 8, 1. 8, GDP
5 60 51 600, GDP 1500,,,,,,, 70, 10,, GDP 110,, GDP 420,, 1992,,,,, 20 80, 2000 : (78. 1 ) (76. 1 ) (74. 9 ) (74. 7 ),, ; 8 10, 5. 3 6. 2, 7 15, 19, 20 70, ;, 90,, 12 3,, :, 3. 1 (2007),,,, 2015 13. 98,2020 14. 36,2030 14. 72,2033 14. 73,, 220,2050 14. 35,, 2016 14, 2023 2047 14. 5 3. 2, :, 9,2013 10,2016 10. 1 2050, 2000 (8. 6 ), 2010 2030, 10
52 33 2 (2000 2050) :,.,2007, 2017, 2016 10. 07 2022 9. 97, 160 2023 2026,,2026 10. 1 2027, 2050, 1. 22, 530, U, 2012,, 2000 67. 83 % 72. 73 % ;,2050 61. 64 %, 2003 70 %, 2010 70 %, 2020 3. 3, : ;,,, (1) 50 70, 70, 60 80,, 50, 20 90, 30, 40 2005, 40,, 2006 2016 40, 25 2032, 50,,2050 62,,, (2007), 2010,, 2000 38 27, 40 24 27
5 60 53, 10 2050 36 2032,,, (2) 20 70 65 1970 3. 94 % 2000 6. 69 %,2005 9. 07 % ;,,1970 2000, 65 1. 59,2005 1. 2 2000,, 1,2028 2,2038 3, 40 3. 17 7 % 2050 22 %,, 80 2000 2050,80 1000 8200, 12. 4 % 26. 2 %, 4 : 1/ 4, 15, ; 1/ 4,,,, : ; 40 ; 30,,, :,, 30,,,,,,,, :60 ( ) 1 :,, (Solow) ;,,,
54 33,,, ;,, ( ),,,,, ( ) - 2006 4 39,, :,, :, 2 60 :,,, 60,,,,,,, 60, :,1949 1957 :,, 1957,,,,,, : (1) (1949 1952 ),,, :,, ;,,,,,,,,, (2) (1953 1957 ), 1953,,, 1954, 2200,1955 2500,1956 3000, 8 % :,
5 60 55,, ;,,,1958 1965 :, U, (1958 1962 ) 8, 1958 1965, 1958,,,, U,,, (1) (1958 1960 ),,,,,,, 1958 1959 1960, 9. 0 %,,, ;, (2) (1961 1965 ) (1961 1965 ),,,,,, U,,,, 1961,, : ;,,, 1958,,,,,,,,,,,,1960,,,1966 1977 :,
56 33, 1966 1977, 10, 12,,,,, 1966, 1400, 1967 1969 500 600,, 1970 1976, 1500 1600 (,1994),,,,, 10,,,,,,, (1),,, 1968 12,,,, 1967 1976, 1500 (,1994) U 1970,,,,, U - (2),,, 1964 1965, 1969 1970, 1980,,,, (,1990),, ( ),,,,,1978 :, 1978 (2009 ) 30,,,,,, :
5 60 57, (1), :,,,, 1984,1992,, 100,2000 1000, 2005, 1. 47, 4779, -,,,, 60 %, 70 %,,,,,,,, :,,,, 1980 8 %, 2000 2005 73 %,, (2) :, 1994 12 14, 20 ( ), 84. 75, 3473. 15 2 11 116,,, 2009,, 2008, 113. 8, 16. 16 (,2009),,,,,, 2008, 139. 15,, ; 2007, 478, 419 (,2009), 3 60, :
58 33 3. 1 30,,,,, 1978, 60 30 30 30 30,, ;, 1978 30,,,,, 60 (1), 30, ( ),,,, :, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, U ;,,,,,,,, (2), 1978,,, ;,,, ;,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,
5 60 59,,,,,,, 3. 2,, (1) ;,, 60,,,,, 1958,,,,, (2),,,,,,,,,, (3),, ;,,,,,, U,, (4),,,, 60, 60,, 60,, ;,,,,,,,,,
60 33 60 ( ) 1949,, 60,, 1 60 (,1994) 1953, 60 4153. 84,60 7. 15 % ;65 2503. 83,65 4. 41 %(, ) 4, 12. 16 % (15 % ),0 14 65, 1953 1953 1964,, 1964,1964 60 4225. 48,60 6. 08 % ;60 1953 63. 67, 60 1953 1. 19 ;65 2458. 33,65 3. 56 % ; 65 1953 0. 85, 65 1953 49. 29 4, 20. 20 (20 30 ),0 14 65, 1964, 1970,,, 60 1982 7663178 1990 96961 96 2000 13054. 29,60 1982 7. 63 % 1990 8. 58 % 2000 10. 46 % ; 65 1982 4927. 55 1990 6314. 03 2000 8883. 44,65 1982 4. 91 % 1990 5. 57 % 2000 6. 96 % 4 1982 1990, 1982 14. 62 % (15 % ),0 14 65 ;1990 0 14 27. 69 % (30 % ),65,1982 1990, 4 2000, 65 6. 96 % (7 % ),0 14 2000 ( 1),2007 65 9. 36 %(
5 60 61,2008) 1 0 14 ( %) 60 ( %) 65 ( %) 65 0 14 ( %) ( ) 1953 36. 28 7. 15 4. 41 12. 16 21. 70 1964 40. 69 6. 08 3. 56 8. 75 20. 20 1982 33. 59 7. 63 4. 91 14. 62 22. 91 1990 27. 69 8. 58 5. 57 20. 12 25. 25 2000 22. 89 10. 46 6. 96 30. 41 30. 85 : (1). 2008.,2008 ; (2) 1953 1990,,1999 ; (3) 1953 2000 60 2000, : 2-3 60,,15 59 60, 1953 12. 98 % 1964 11. 86 %, 1982 13. 04 % 1990 13. 46 % 2000 15. 68 % ;15 64 65, 1953 7. 44 % 1964 6. 39 %, 1982 7. 98 % 1990 8. 35 % 2000 9. 92 %,2007 65 12. 86 %(,2008) 2 60, 2. 1 60 20 50, 1958,, 1984,,, 1986 1991 ( ),,, 2003, 8, 2009 10 % ( ) 9 1 ; 16 ( ), ;,,, 2020
62 33, 20 50 20 50, ( ) : 1994,, 2006,, 1999,,,,, 1994,2007, 2. 2 60, 20 50,,1952, 1998 1988,,, ;, ; ;, ( ),2007,, 20 50 80, 20 90, 1997,, 3,, (2009 2011 ),,,,, 65, 2. 3 60 20 50,,, 2000, 11 (2000 ), (2001)
5 60 63 (2005 ), 2001, 10 (2008 ),, 3 3. 1 60, 65 2008 3-5, 0 14 15 64 65 ; 2008 3-10 (2007 ),, 1956, 64 1982, : 60 60, (,1983) 1991, : 60, 60, 65 (,1998) 2002, :, 2050, 6 20,, 60, (,1992) (,1994) (, 1999) : 60 ; 60, 65,, (,1994), 60 ; 65,, (,1992) 1996 60,, 60,, 65,, 15 59 ; 15 59 60 3. 2 21 21, 2000,
64 33 2000 1. 8 2015 1. 9 2020 2. 1, 2040 2. 0, 2100 ; 2000 69. 63 73. 33, 2050 77 81 2100 81 85, 21 100 : (1) 60 2000 1. 31 2020 2. 48 2050 4. 58,2100 4. 07 2035 2100 60 4 60 2000 10. 46 % 2020 17. 14 % 2050 31. 19 %,2100 31. 51 % 2046 2100 60 29 % 2020 2030 60, 2. 48 3. 61,10 1. 13, 45. 6 % ; 60 17. 14 % 24. 43 %,10 7. 29 (2) 15 59 60 2000 15. 68 % 2020 26. 90 % 2050 59. 63 %,2100 60. 49 % 2047 2100 55 % 2020 2030 60,10 26. 90 % 41. 58 %, 14. 68 (3) 80 2000 1211 2020 2798,2050 1. 01,2100 1. 14 2050 2100 9700 80 2000 0. 96 % 2020 1. 94 % 2050 6. 90 % 2100 8. 87 % 2051 2100 7 % 2040 2050 80, 6204. 85 10117. 38,10 3912. 53, 63. 06 % ; 4. 15 % 6. 90 %,10 2. 75 3. 3 21 21, 21, ; 21,, 21,, 2001 2060 60 ;21 60,, 2020 2030 60 1. 13 ( 10 1 ), 1970,,, 2060 60, ( 2000 1. 8 2015 1. 7 2030 1. 6, 2100 ), 60 2050 35. 16 %, 2100 40. 14 % ; 15 59
5 60 65 60 2050 67. 35 %, 2100 83. 22 %, 60 3. 97 8. 63, 15 59 60 7. 72 22. 73, 21 100, 21 ;, 3. 4 21,21,,,, ; ;,, ;, 2035 2100 60 4 2050 2100 80 9700 ; 2046 2100 60 29 % 2047 2100 15 59 60 55 % 2051 2100 80 7 %, 60,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,, 60,,, 1/ 4 ;,, ;,, :
66 33,,,,,, 60, 30,,,,, U,,,,,,, -,,,,,,,,, 21, 60,,,, 1. 6, 4, 1,,,,,,,,,, 20,,,,,,,,,,,, : 1. ( ).,1955 :594 2..,1957-10 - 04 3.. 2002 4.. 2002 5.. ( ),2007 6,,,. :?,2005 ;5 7..,2002 8. 30.,2008 ;5 9. 30.,2007 ;6
5 60 67 10 Population Division, United Nations. World Population Prospects : The 2006 Revision. UN, 2007 11,. (2007).,2008 12. 2002.,2003 13. 2005.,2006 14..,2007 15..,1998 ;6 16 ( ). ( ).,1994 :240 17..,1994 :112 18..,1990 19. 16,2009-08 - 24 20..,2009 ;1 21.,,1994 22. 2008.,2008 23..,1983 24,. -.,1998 25,..,1992 ;3 26.,,1999 27..,2003 ;2 28 Population Reference Bureau (2008),2008 World Population Data Sheet, Washington DC, USA. Sixty - years of Population of Ne w China 1st October 2009 is the 60th anniversary of the People s Republic of China. Over the last 60 years, particularly since the reform and opening up, China has completed the historical transition of population reproduction, becoming demo2 graphically a developed country. In order to celebrate the achievements of China s population and demography, this is2 sue of Pop ulation and Develop ment Forum has invited some distinguished Chinese demograp hers to summarize and dis2 cuss the major changes and p rogress that have been made in population and demograp hy in China over the 60 years. Pro2 fessor Wu Cangping examines the irreplaceable position of demography as a discipline in China. Professor Li Jianmin highlights the unique pattern of China s demographic transition in the context of changing population policy. Professor Wang Guixin looks at changing patterns of migration in China in the context of socio - economic changes in China. Pro2 fessor Gui Shixun explores China s old - age security system in the context of rapid aging in China. Finally Professor Yuan Xin calls for both theoretical and empirical researches on the unprecedented demographic challenges in China now and future. ( : :2009 09)