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* - - A A - - 2016 * 2016 ( 16JJD630011) ;, 140

- - active inertia 1 A 2001-2015 / 1 14 2004-2017 2 1 2,,, ( Sull,1999;,2003: 26-48),,, : ( http: / /www. moa. gov. cn /zwllm /zcfg /flfg /201301 / t20130104_3134804. htm) 141

2017. 5 Johnson 1984 Thompson 1989 OECD 2013 20 90 2011 90 2000 2005 2004 2013 2016 Zhou 2011 Zhang 2013 2013 2004 2014 2013 2016 - - failure trap Levinthal & March 2010 142

Levinthal & March 2010 1 2 3 optimistic bias Lant 1992 2006 74 2000 2004 2014 2015 2013 2016 2016 143

2017. 5 2012 439-453 state 2012 2007 U 2007 2015 2016 2014 2012 2010 Cai & Zhu 2013 2015 O Brien & Li 1999 2011 144

2008 2011 2017 2009 2000 2014 A 2011 41-44 A A A 1 A 2001-2015 A 145

2017. 5 2 A A 2014 49. 8% A 1 1 2001 A 2001-2015 2002-2006 2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 2012 2013-2014 2015 2010-2011 A 146

1 15 A 5 3 7 3 2017 A A 20 90 A A 2012 2007 A 1 A A 2016 147

2017. 5 A 2000-2015 1 A 1 2 / 2010 1 : ;, ;, 148

2 signature A 2007 149

2017. 5 1. 3 10 2016 A 20 60 7 NUA1314 2007 10 EH0809 OK132613 A 2 2007 2007 5. 5 A 150

2 1 5-6 8-9 3 4 7 18 3 2. 2014 2013 2016 A 151

2017. 5 1. A 2. A A A A A 152

A 2008 A 2011 0. 6 / A 1994 40% 1 20 90 16% 2005 30. 7% 2012 1 = / ( 1994-2013, 2015 6 ) 153

2017. 5 42% 2012 2014 2015 2013 13799 20% 2016 40% 2012 2015 OE012621 Liu et al. 2009 2012 A A 1 2 3 154

2009 1 2 3 3 155

2017. 5 A 1. 2017 283-284 A H A H A J 156

A 2. : 2003 A H A A 10 20 A H 2008 1 2009 2010 190 A 1. : 157

2017. 5 10 MBOS010711 A A 2016 3 2014 IX012214 2012 2017 237-269 OE012621 2006 26-27 feedback 158

loop 2. : 2008 2009 2010 28-29 A 7 the power to persuade Neustadt 1991 2010 OUX0416 2008 2009 OE012621 159

2017. 5 3. : / / 2014 2015 2006 UG010521 2013 2000 2013 2016 2016 A B C A 1 2 3 4 2005 160

A - - 2017 - - 161

2017. 5 2017 101-102 1 2 1999 2011 3 2016 1 2013 162

8 2013 11 2015 2 2016 1949-2015 J 6 2010 3 2009 G X 12 2015 4 2010 2009 4 2012 2014 2 2017 3 2017 http / /www. thepaper. cn /www /v3 /jsp /newsdetail_forward_1601486_1 2016 3 2010 6 2017 1 2004 2 2016 1 2016 http / /weibo. com /p /1001603980444268943340 2012 T 1 2016 4 2015 5 2013 1 2005 5 2000 1 2011 163

2017. 5 2010 2006 8 2012 5 2007 2 2012 2014 1 2003 2006 2016 5 2005 1 2009 5 2011 4 2012 G L 4 2016 X 6 2007 11 2006 2012 1 2007 7 2014 6 2015 1 1999 4 2008 6 2015 2 2017 2011 5 Cai Yongshun & L. Zhu 2013 Disciplining Local Officials in China The Case of Conflict Management. China Journal 70. Johnson C. 1984 The Industrial Policy Debate. San Francisco CA. ICS Press. 164

Lant T. K. 1992 Aspiration Level Updating An Empirical Exploration. Management Science 38 5. Levinthal D. A. & J. G. March 2010 The Myopia of Learning. Strategic Management Journal 14 S2. Liu Mingxing J. Wang R. Tao & R. Murphy 2009 The Political Economy of Earmarked Transfers in a State - Designated Poor County in Western China Central Policies and Local Responses. The China Quarterly 200. Neustadt R. 1991 Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan. New York Free Press. O Brien K. J. & L. J. Li 1999 Selective Policy Implementation in Rural China. Comparative Politics 31 2. OECD 2013 Perspectives on Global Development 2013 Industrial Policies in a Changing World. Paris OECD Development Centre. Sull D. 1999 The Dynamics of Standing Still Firestone Tire and Rubber and the Radial Revolution. Business History Review 73 3. Thompson G. 1989 Industrial Policy USA and UK Debate. London Routledge. Zhang Qian Forrest 2013 Comparing Local Models of Agrarian Transition in China. Rural China 10 1. Zhou Xueguang 2011 The Autumn Harvest Peasants and Markets in Post Collective Rural China. The China Quarterly 208. 165

was willing to undertake tasks assigned by the party and government which reduced the difference between the Federation and the latter. On the other hand as the policy emphasized on the transition into a social organization the Federation enhanced its functions as a social organization. It however resisted turning into a complete social organization but only resembling it. Thus the pendulum in the past reform was the result of the coupling effect of both the institution and actors. That is it was caused not merely by institutional arrangements and periodical change of orders from above but also by the collective actions of the cadre group in the Federation. Thus the future reform of the Federation should proceed from both the institution and actions. Active Inertia A Study on the Mechanism of the Restructuring of the Agricultural Industries by the Local Government Liu Junqiang Lu Yu & Li Zhen 140 Abstract Why has the restructuring of agriculture been high on government agenda for decades but yielded little results during the cycles of new projects - inefficient projects - new projects Based on fieldwork for one year in a county in southern China and interviews with over 100 people we find that the frequent restructuring of agribusiness is an adaptive action to strong incentives and weak punishment mechanisms. Competition for performance and time pressure propel local cadres to chase new projects. Weak punishment reduces the cost of project failure because of the difficulty in assigning responsibility intervention through informal ties and the multi-task balance. This study investigates the institutional origins of active inertia in government casts doubt on the government capacity in building local agribusiness and hence improves our understanding of government s limitation in economic development. How Does the Local Government Avoid Risks An Analysis of the Reform of Community Property Management in City A Sheng Zhiming 166 Abstract Government departments at different levels face various potential risks that need to be avoided in the process of social governance. This paper conducts case study of the community property management reform initiated by the Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in City A and illustrates how this local government department avoids potential risks through a series of institutional 245