2007-11-22 8621 63216973 Hesheng1@cjsc.com.cn 2008 2007 601939 2007 601398 600036 601166 12 2008 3965 3465 2965 2465 1965 1465 965 06-11 07-01 07-03 07-05 07-07 07-09 07-11 2008 2008 WIND 2007 9 14 8 21 7 21 2008
2007... 1 2008... 2... 2... 4 2008... 9... 9... 11... 11... 11... 14... 15... 16... 16... 17... 19 2008... 20... 21... 21... 21... 22 1
1 2007... 1 2 2006... 5 3... 5 4... 6 5... 6 6 2007... 7 7 2006... 7 8... 8 9... 8 10... 8 11... 9 12 2007... 10 13 2007 1... 10 14 2007... 10 15 2007... 11 16 2006 2007 1... 10 17 2006 2007 3... 11 18 2007... 12 19... 12 20 2005... 13 21 2007... 13 22... 13 23 2005... 14 24 2006... 15 25 GDP... 16 26 1990... 17 27 1980... 17 28... 17 29... 18 30 80... 18 31... 18 32... 18 33... 19 34 1975 1990... 19 35... 19 36... 20 37... 19 38... 20 39... 20 2
1 2007... 2 2... 3 3... 4 4... 7 5... 9 6 2006... 14 7 2006... 14 8 2006... 16 9... 22 3
2007 2008 2007 2007 2007 1 2007 10 3.50 17.66% 2.59 2007 1
1 2007 11.37% 17.28% 19.61% 15.41% 17.72% 18.25% 15.28% 16.74% 12.12% 27.27% 7.85% 6.31% 19.14% 16.01% 17.82% 24.0 7.05% 19.02% 7.52% 13.69% 28.93% 21.39% 36.33% 48.79% 31.18% 42.35% 44.01% 31.45% 28.11% 38.55% 20.53% 14.73% 48.41% 32.37% 17.32% 47.32% 39.21% 25.28% 33.67% 41.73% 34.6 26.69% 26.4 59.08% 44.85% 38.64% 49.26% 35.32% 24.09% 36.95% 104.69% 87.88% 138.17% 154.41% 118.34% 52.48% 54.63% 90.3 89.76% 40.34% 38.48% 29.62% 37.9 66.12% 50.41% 39.08% 40.26% 35.13% 26.73% 35.95% 19.74% 19.47% 18.58% 48.74% 43.32% 30.5 45.06% 8.04% -16.75% 35.41% 64.53% 39.45% 63.92% 80.8 64.35% 87.45% 28.86% 98.16% 56.79% 36.48% 64.06% 37.52% 63.54% 106.64% 65.66% 80.22% 39.93% 96.99% 55.68% 45.04% 58.71% 36.57% 77.72% 70.97% 57.57% 59.02% 61.41% 153.11% 73.42% 49.59% 66.49% 38.01% 57.06% 128.09% 70.44% 92.69% 28.96% 59.45% 47.02% 43.93% 2008 2008 2008 2007 2008 1 2 3 2007 3 5 7 8 9 2
2 3 3 1 1 5 5 31.66% 68.34% 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.44% 40.95% 19.75% 5.27% 3.59% 25.06% 72.77% 1.16% 1.01% 0.0 29.8 46.9 13.57% 6.67% 3.06% 33.56% 66.17% 0.27% 0.0 0.0 42.32% 42.82% 8.33% 4.53% 2.0 22.91% 77.0 0.0 0.0 0.08% 27.69% 49.73% 13.75% 3.78% 5.05% 60.5 36.78% 2.29% 0.43% 0.0 59.76% 31.52% 5.21% 1.46% 2.06% 84.68% 12.39% 1.42% 1.51% 0.0 73.56% 14.63% 5.02% 4.92% 1.87% 57.14% 38.47% 3.64% 0.75% 0.0 58.85% 30.06% 6.42% 2.42% 2.24% 39.09% 55.29% 3.81% 0.9 0.91% 40.32% 43.14% 10.34% 4.47% 1.74% 29.75% 38.7 16.08% 15.45% 0.01% 42.06% 26.06% 17.23% 11.97% 2.69% 37.23% 59.22% 2.56% 0.31% 0.68% 52.12% 40.43% 3.81% 1.04% 2.59% 51.84% 46.65% 1.33% 0.19% 0.0 56.38% 35.3 3.89% 2.35% 2.08% 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 3 2008 3
3 3 3 3 3 1 1 5 5 65.83% 24.92% 7.74% 0.05% 1.46% 67.08% 21.75% 6.9 0.25% 4.02% 70.8 22. 6.26% 0.17% 0.57% 70.9 19.92% 6.06% 0.15% 2.97% 79.64% 17.05% 3.26% 0.06% 0.0 78.61% 15.36% 4.4 0.05% 1.58% 78.71% 18.29% 2.99% 0.0 0.0 73.88% 16.43% 6.71% 1.41% 1.57% 76.71% 17.87% 5.41% 0.01% 0.0 74.08% 15.64% 7.7 0.94% 1.64% 68.43% 24.47% 6.33% 0.15% 0.63% 66.55% 22.94% 7.43% 0.13% 2.95% 80.57% 17.14% 2.28% 0.02% 0.0 77.61% 16.5 4.11% 0.54% 1.24% 74.16% 18.14% 6.64% 0.34% 0.72% 75.64% 15.54% 5.63% 1.13% 2.07% 81.04% 11.92% 7.04% 0.0 0.0 80.44% 10.7 6.37% 1.33% 1.16% 71.9 19.87% 8.13% 0.09% 0.0 66.26% 22.83% 7.04% 0.08% 3.79% 82.36% 14.32% 2.97% 0.0 0.35% 82.26% 13.27% 2.59% 0.01% 1.86% 3 7 8 3 4
2007 2 1 2 2006 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 1 1 6 1 WIND 6 1 6 45% 1 3 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 26.4% 25.7% 24.3% 28.7% 25.7% 25. 26.5% 30.3% 30.7% 24.1% 24.5% 43.2% 9.1% 12.1% 18.4% 15.6% 13. 14.4% 11.8% 31. 23.3% 18.4% 20. 17. 18.9% 24.6% 38.8% 43.2% 43.4% 44.1% 48.6% 38.2% 39.9% 20.8% 10.1% 43.9% 4.7% 4.4% 9. 22.8% 63.6% 54.4% 16.8% 16.4% 16.1% 7.4% 18.7% 18.3% 20.4% 25.9% 21.6% 25.1% 19.8% 3 3 1 1 5 5 25.2% 17.3% 22.9% 5
4 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 34% 33% 24% 18% 17% 18% 56% 19% 53% 21% 9% 7% 28% 27% 24% 25% 26% 26% 25% 16% 26% 16% 42% 23% 21% 36% 19% 35% 22% 24% 16% 14% 19% 28% 37% 42% 33% 26% 23% 32% 4 12% 3 25% 11% 3 3 1 1 5 5 6% 33% 28% 33% 12% 44% 36% 7% 3 69% 81% 4 5 10 9 8 12.49% 12.49% 5.53% 7.63% 9.13% 7.56% 5.69% 8.13% 8.09% 32.91% 24.93% 23.13% 23.39% 23.29% 19.87% 19.02% 15.9 10.02% 6.06% 5.41% 3.53% 7.04% 16.57% 17.87% 18.35% 11.92% 7 34.94% 34.94% 6 5 4 3 51.06% 51.06% 61.32% 67.39% 67.68% 69.05% 71.0 71.9 72.88% 73.48% 76.43% 76.71% 78.0 81.04% 3 3 1 1 5 5 6
6 2007 65% 6 55% 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 7 2006 4 4 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 37% 36% 2006 3 2006 6 2006 9 2006 12 2007 3 2007 6 2007 1 6 4 45% 6 5 6 7 8 5 0.020 0.016 0.012 0.008 6 0.119 0.115 0.111 0.107 7 0.218 0.214 0.210 0.206 65% 6 5 6 7 8 5 0.216 0.210 0.204 0.198 6 0.315 0.309 0.303 0.297 7 0.414 0.408 0.402 0.396 7
5 2008 8 6.50 6.20 5.90 5.60 5.30 5.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 2007 2008 9 7.00 6.70 6.40 6.10 5.80 5.50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 2007 2008 8
10 11 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1.3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2008 2008 4.7% 1 2 6 6 0 bp 18 bp 0 bp 6 18bp 27 bp 9 bp 18 bp 9 bp 6 18bp 27 bp 5 5 6 5 4.5 9 0 4.5 4 6 5 4.5 9.9 0 5.4 4 6 6 7.2 12.6 1.8 7.2 5 6 6 7.2 11.7 1.8 6.3 37% 2005 9
24% 1 2005 12 2007 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-05 Apr-05-20 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07-40 CEIC 13 2007 1 8. 7.5% 7. 6.5% 6. 5.5% 5. 2004 4 2005 2 2005 4 2006 2 2006 4 2007 2 26% 36% 14 2007 10 8 34.6 32.37 35.62 35.07 35.07 34.7 31.02 29.03 28.43 27.41 26.19 6 4 2005-03 2005-06 2005-09 2005-12 2006-03 2006-06 2006-09 2006-12 2007-03 2007-06 2007-09 10
15 2007 10 8 6 39.8 39.96 41.08 41.09 39.92 39.41 35.7 38.52 36.01 36.48 36.88 4 2005-03 2005-06 2005-09 2005-12 2006-03 2006-06 2006-09 2006-12 2007-03 2007-06 2007-09 2007 1 120 3 150 16 2006 2007 1 17 2006 2007 3 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 S1 Y2007t1 Y2006T1 S3 y2007t3 Y2006t3 CHINABOND CHINABOND 2008 1 3 11
66% 18 2007 10 9 8 7 6 11% 21% 14% 15% 9% 13% 11% 15% 24% 23% 13% 9% 13% 11% 18% 22% 31% 38% 9% 11% 13% 34% 38% 41% 9% 7% 35% 44% 5 4 3 66% 66% 64% 61% 59% 55% 52% 49% 47% 46% 46% 46% 44% 39% 80 6 19 10 8 6 4 4% 4% 6% 9% 9% 46% 51% 54% 61% 59% 6 59% 32% 25% 18% 18% 19% 17% 16% 18% 17% 9% 7% 6% 4% 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 EROP 12
20 2005 10 8 6 4 3% 12% 13% 7% 26% 26% 25% 19% 47% 34% 59% 57% 23% 28% 5% 14% OECD 80 21 2007 10 9 8 7 3% 2% 7% 6% 4% 11% 13% 7% 3% 4% 7% 11% 14% 9% 3% 16% 8% 9% 12% 12% 22% 9% 16% 28% 45% 6 5 4 3 9 89% 87% 87% 86% 86% 82% 81% 8 8 79% 69% 56% 12% 44% 22 10 8 6 8% 7% 6% 6% 3% 4% 4% 3% 8% 8% 3% 6% 11% 6% 6% 15% 17% 16% 4 89% 85% 8 78% 7 67% 67% 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 FDIC 13
23 2005 10 8 6 4 6% 16% 45% 18% 19% 3% 16% 75% 31% 6% 12% 51% 27% 29% 22% 4% 4% 4% 8% OECD 2006 77% 45% 3 6 2006 64.36% 31.86% 11.19% 35.64% 77.07% 40.66% 22.93% 44.88% 30.09% 5.07% 55.12% 61.97% 12.35% 17.78% 38.03% 7 2006 82.85% 74.11% 8.74% 17.15% 0.17% 11.84% 5.15% 78.03% 73.41% 4.6 21.97% 0. 15.41% 6.36% 74.93% - - 25.07% 0.34% 19.17% 5.56% 87.27% 77.32% 7.85% 12.73% 0.28% 10.38% 2.07% 78.18% 66.63% 11.55% 21.82% 2.25% 16.91% 2.66% 14
75.09% 72.43% 2.66% 24.91% 0.37% 19.52% 5.02% 84.87% 72.76% 11.02% 15.13% 0.47% 13.95% 0.71% 74.84% 69.32% 5.52% 25.15% - - - 88.8 80.37% 7.92% 11. - 7.41% 3.79% 86.25% 77.69% 8.03% 13.75% 0.22% 12.49% 1.05% 89.38% 80.84% 8.54% 10.62% 0.4 8.21% 2.01% 91.6 74.9 16.7 8.4-6.71% - 70.42% 60.88% 8.09% 29.58% - - - 84.66% 74.53% 9.49% 15.34% 0.04% 10.38% 4.91% 2006 6 24 2006 35% 3 25% 15% 5% 2005 12 2006 6 2006 12 2007 6 2006 7.65% 64 9.13% 254 2008 GDP 1985 15
25 GDP 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 5% 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 4 35% 3 25% 15% GDP EROP FDIC 2007 8 2006 0.96 0.88 0.85 1 0.87 0.82 0.73 2 0.83 0.80 0.71 3 0.83 0.89 0.82 4 0.82 0.87 0.87 5 0.76 0.76 0.72 6 0.75 0.78 0.69 7 0.75 0.78 0.72 8 0.73 0.63 0.60 9 0.68 0.82 0.72 10 0.61 0.73 0.65 11 2007 80 16
26 1990 7 5 3-1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 16% 14% 12% 8% 6% 4% 2% EROP FDIC 27 1980 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 15% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 FDIC 17
28 29 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 BLOOMBERG BLOOMBERG 30 80 25% 15% 5% 1950-5% 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 FDIC 31 32 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 BLOOMBERG BLOOMBERG 18
19 33 2% 4% 6% 8% 12% 14% 16% 18% 34 1975 1990 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 5% 15% 25%
35 36 18 306 15 16 14 12 10 8 6 286 266 246 226 206 186 166 146 126 106 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Jan-81 Jul-81 Jan-82 Jul-82 Jan-83 Jul-83 Jan-84 Jul-84 Jan-85 Jul-85 Jan-86 Jul-86 Jan-87 Jul-87 Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-81 Jul-81 Jan-82 Jul-82 Jan-83 Jul-83 Jan-84 Jul-84 Jan-85 Jul-85 Jan-86 Jul-86 Jan-87 Jul-87 Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-90 M2 CEIC M2 CEIC 37 38 38 60 950 38 33 50 900 33 28 23 18 40 30 20 850 800 750 700 28 23 18 13 10 650 13 8 0 600 8 Jan-85 Jul-85 Jan-86 Jul-86 Jan-87 Jul-87 Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-85 Jul-85 Jan-86 Jul-86 Jan-87 Jul-87 Jan-88 Jul-88 Jan-89 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 M2 M2 CEIC CEIC 39 20 30000 19 25000 18 17 20000 16 15000 15 10000 14 13 5000 12 0 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 M2 CEIC 2008 2008 20
21 56% 2007 19.51% 3.21% 14.44% 17.15% 104 13.32%
3 2007 2008 2007 1451 2.25% 15.57% 2007 2007 78% 29.5% 9 EPS BVPS 06A 07E 08E 06A 07E 08E 600000 0.77 1.21 2.51 5.67 6.64 8.65 600015 0.35 0.63 1.07 2.77 3.28 4.13 600016 0.26 0.44 0.70 1.33 3.15 3.74 600036 0.48 0.92 1.60 3.75 4.58 6.02 601009 0.32 0.51 0.67 1.42 5.52 6.08 601166 0.76 1.63 2.59 3.24 7.65 9.85 601169 0.34 0.55 0.81 1.58 4.32 4.93 601328 0.26 0.39 0.59 1.81 2.62 3.09 601398 0.15 0.24 0.38 1.40 1.59 1.89 601939 0.20 0.33 0.50 1.41 1.92 2.32 601988 0.17 0.24 0.32 1.53 1.66 1.81 601998 0.10 0.20 0.31 0.82 2.39 2.63 000001 A 0.57 1.14 2.06 2.82 7.10 9.77 002142 0.25 0.38 0.51 1.28 3.16 3.59 22
200002 130 5 430015 8 TEL (8621)63217917 FAX (8621)33130730 E-mail yangjf@cjsc.com.cn ( ) TEL (8621)63516121 FAX (8621)51062920 E-mail guihm@cjsc.com.cn 12 /, 12 /, 5% -5% 5% -5% http:// www.cjsc.com.cn