) 315 4, 2006 GDP 515 %, 30 %, 54 %, ,,,,,,,, 20 %, , 2217 % ; , 2016 %,,,, 70 %, 2006, 6417 %, 23 % ;, 24 %, 817 %,,

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1 : 3 (CGE) :,,, CGE,,:,,,,, 2 3 ; 3,, %, 20 % :, 30 ;,30,, 30, : 30?? (2008) : %, 9 %, 55, %, 45, 9 % 10, 6 %, 41 IEA 2007, , , 43, 52,,,2006 ( ) 43 %,61 % 78 %, 2020,3 ( 3,, :361005, edu. cn edu. cn 88

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4 (3) Parks(1978) , () 1986,Hamilton (1983),,GDP,,, Barsky Kilian (2001),,, Boschen Mills(1995) Bernanke Mihov (1998),1970, 1973,,,,,, , 80, 60 70,, Hooker (2002) , ,,,, Barrell Ponerantz (2004),, Katayama (2007), ;Blanchard Gali (2007) 21 70, : (a) ( ) ; (b) ; (c) ; (d),(2006),,,, ;(2004) ; (2006) ; (2007) C2D,,,,10 %, 0135 %, 0105 %,,,,, :,

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8 CGE 11 : Π,, ; 0,, a a i X p i a i VA a i i = a a i ( + (1 - a i ) IN T a i i ) 1Π a i (1),VA, INT, a i 21,,, : a c i X S i = a c i ( i M - c i i + (1 - i ) D - c i i ) - 1Π c i (2), M, c i, D i 31 CGE,,,, : P S i X S i = P D i D i + P m i M i (3) 41,,,,,, 51 : : C i = [ H ih Y H h (1 - mps h ) (1 - t H h ) ]ΠP S i (4) h : G i = G i govtot (5) : P S i K i = shr i INV ES T (6), ih, govtot, K i, shr i 61, 95

9 :,,,,,, ;, : 70 %, 20 %,,, CGE, 3,3, 20 % 2006 GAMS (Version 2215), MPSGE,(Mix Complementary Program, MCP), PATH ( ),,2,,, % % % % % :, ( ) 2,,,,,, 2002 SAM : (1) :SAM 2006,, SAM ; (2) :,,( ), SAM, 3 ( ), 96

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11 :,,7 ( ) 7 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % , ,(Davis and Haltiwanger, 2001), (1),, 2 5,, (2), 100 %,411 %, 615 %, 216 % 614 %, 314 % 1111 %, ;,, 115,, 2 3 ; 3, %, 20 % (3), 2 5,,,, :,, ( ), 016, 0182,,,,,, (4) 100 %,, 1615 %,, 3 %; 100 %,, 1111 %,, 98

12 , 3,, 100 % 1312 %, 218 %,1 %,, ( ),, (5),,,, 3,,, 4, :,, 70,,,,,, GDP, ;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 45,,,30,, 99

13 :,,,,, :, 7 %, ,, 2006,,,2007 1,,,,,,,,,?,,?,,,,,,,,,2006 : CGE, 11,2006 : :,5,2008 :,5,2008 :,,2008 :,,2005 :(CGE), 1,2007 :, 4,2007 :, 2,1999 :,6,2006 : , 4,2004 :,12 Barrell, Ray and Olga Pomerantz,2004, Oil Prices and the World Economy, NIESR Discussion Paper July, www. niesr. ac. uk. Barsky, Robert B. and Lutz Kilian,2001, Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative, NB ER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 16, PP : Bernanke B. S. and I. Mihov. 1998, Measuring Monetary Policy, Quarterly Journal of Economics 113 (3) : Blanchard, Oliver and Jordi Gali,2007, The Macroeconomics Effects of Oil Price Shocks : Why Are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?, Working Papers 0711 (2007), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. Boschen, J. F., and L. O. Mills. 1995, The Relation Between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy. Economic Inquiry 33 (1) : Burbidge, J., and A. Harrison. 1984, Testing for the Effects of Oil2Price Rises Using Vector Autoregression, International Economic Review 25 : Darby, M. R. 1982, The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession, American Economic Review 72 : Davis, S. J., and J. Haltiwanger. 2001, Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Response to Oil Price Changes, Journal of Monetary 100

14 Economics 48 : Hamilton, J. D.,1983, Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War. Journal of Political Economy, 91 : Hamilton, J. D. 1988, A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle, Journal of Political Economy 96 : Hooker, Mark A., 2002, Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp Katayama,Munechika.,2007, Declining Effects of Oil2price Shocks,http :ΠΠecon. ucsd. eduπ m1katayaπpaperπoilshock. pdf. Lalonde, Ren and Dirk Muir,2007, The Bank of Canadaπs Version of the Global Economy Model (BoC2GEM), International Department Bank of Canada, Lee, K., and S. Ni.,2002, On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks : A Study Using Industry Level Data, Journal of Monetary Economics 49 : Parks, Richard W.,1978, Inflation and Relative Price Variability, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, No. 1. Ram, R., and D. D. Ramsey. 1989, Government Capital and Private Output in the United States ; Additional Evidence, Economics Letters 30 : Rasche, R. H., and J. A. Tatom. 1981, Energy Price Shocks, Aggregate Supply and Monetary Policy : The Theory and the International Evidence, in K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer, eds., Supply Shocks, Incentives and National Wealth, Carnegie2Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 14 : The Impact of Energy Price Increases on Macro2economy : An Analyses based on CGE Method Lin Boqiang and Mou Dunguo (China Center for Energy Economics Research, Xiamen University) Abstract: In recent years, we have seen great increase in energy prices. The impacts of energy price increases on Western countriesπ economy drew great attention, and Western scholars did a large number of related research. However, very few researches on the subject were done in China. Different studies have shown that energy prices have contraction effects on economy. Since 1993, China became a net oil imported country. Recent oil price increase is the first time for China to face the oil price shock. Coal prices have also kept rising in recent years. What kinds and how great of the impact will coal and oil price increases have on Chinaπs economy are highly related with the Chinaπs economic characteristics, and both are import questions need great research effort to support macro2policy decision making. This paper studies these questions, particularly comparisons of coal and oil price impacts using computable general equilibrium (CGE) method, and therefore fills the research gap. The results show that the impacts of energy price increase have contraction effects, and the levels of contraction are different significantly across industries. This will not only affects the economic growth but also impel the industrial structure change. For most industries in China, the contraction effects of coal are 2 to 3 times that of oil for the same price increase, and conclusion holds even for the less energy2intensive service industries. The impact differences of coal and oil are in line with the observed energy consumption structure of China, which coal takes 70 % and oil takes 20 % of the primary energy consumption. This paper put forward some suggestions on how to deal with the energy price increases. Key Words : Oil Price ; Coal Price ; Contraction Effect ; Industrial Structure JEL Classification :D580, Q430 ( : ) (: ) 101

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