6 59 Balke CNAGE VAR VAR GDP GDP C - VECM GDP GDP GDP

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1 26 6 Vol. 26 No Research of Finance and Education Dec 聂高辉 1, 陈娜 1 2, 杨坤我国的经济迅速崛起导致我国成为世界上石油进口和消费大国, 而我国的石油储量又是贫瘠的, 因此, 我国经济发展必然要受到国际石油价格波动的影响为此, 文章以美国西德克萨斯轻质原油 ( West Taxas Intermediate Crude Oil) WTI 石油价格作为国际石油价格的代表, 选取年我国工业固定资产投资率工业产出增加值工业就业人数以及 WTI 石油价格数据, 构建了 VAR( 2) 模型, 并由此进行脉冲响应和方差分析结果显示 : 国际石油价格对工业固定资产投资率和工业产出增加值在短期内有先抑制后拉动的作用, 而在长期内作用则不明显这表明国际石油价格波动对我国工业经济发展沿着健康平稳合意的速度发展目标具有负面作用国际石油价格 ; 中国工业经济 ; VAR 模型 : G642 : A : ( 2013) % WIT VAR Patinkin Don Pierce Enzler Finn Brown Lee Ni Carruth Haltiwanger Davis

2 6 59 Balke CNAGE VAR VAR GDP GDP C - VECM GDP GDP GDP Granger VAR Mudan IGEM VEC VAR VAR ( 一 ) 模型建立 VAR Vector Autoregressive Model Sims 1980 VAR p Y t = Φ 1 Y t Φ p Y t - p + BX t + ε t t = T 1 Y t k Y t = y 1t y 2t y 3t y kt T X t d p Φ 1 Φ p k k Φ i = Φ 11 i Φ 12 i Φ 1k j Φ 22 j Φ 2k j i = p Φ k2 j Φ kk j Φ 21 j Φ k1 j

3 B k d ε t k 1 Y t = Φ 1 Y t Φ p Y t - p + ε t 2 VAR OLS ( 二 ) 指标选取与数据处理 WTI EIA BP 1 1 LNP WTI / LNIGDP 1991 LNE = IGR 1991 ( 三 ) 实证结果分析 1. VAR VAR VAR LNP IGR LNIGDP LNE 5% 2. Granger Granger LNP IGR LNIGDP EVIEWS % 1 LNP IGR LNP 2 3 LNP IGR Granger 8. 64% 7. 82% LNP 2 3 IGR LNP Granger % % 2 LNP LNIGDP LNP 2 3 LNP LNIGDP Granger 8. 29% 8. 08% LNP 2 3 LNIGDP LNP Granger % % 3. VAR

4 6 61 AIC = ln SSR k T + 2k T SIC = ln SSR k T + k( ln T) T k T SSR k AIC SIC EVIEWS6. 0 AIC SIC 2 4. VAR 1 2 VAR VAR 1 2 VAR 1 5. VAR Y t = Φ 1 Y t Φ p Y t - p + BX t + ε t t = T VAR 2 IGR IGR( - 1) LNIGDP = LNIGDP( - 1) + LNP LNP( - 1) IGR( - 2) LNIGDP( - 2) LNP( - 2) LNE ( 一 ) 脉冲响应分析 ε 1t ε 2t ε 3 t

5 IGR LNP LNP IGR 5 12 ( 二 ) 方差分解分析 2 3 VAR 2 2 IGR IGR LNIGDP LNP

6 LNIGDP IGR LNIGDP LNP % 5. 67% 5. 78% 7. 38% 9. 21% % % 3 17% - 18% WTI VAR ( 一 ) 加强建立石油储备体系 ( 二 ) 加快完善国内油品定价机制市场化步伐, 增加对国际油价的影响力

7 Patinkin Don. M James L Pierce and Jared J Enzler. The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Finn. Perfect competition and the effects of energy price increase on economic activity. Journal of Money Credit and Banking 2000 Vol. 32 No Brown Stephen and Yucel. Energy prices and aggregate economic activity an interpretative survey Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance Lee and Ni Shawn. Oil shocks and the macroeconomy the role of price variability. Energy Journal Carruth Hooker and Oswald. Unemployment equilibria and inpur prices theory and evidence from the United States. Review of Economics and Statistics Haltiwanger and Davis. Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes. Journal of Monetary Economics Balke Brown and Yucel. Oil price shocks and the U. S. Economy where dose the asymmetry originate. Energy Journal J J J J VAR J J J GDP J C - VECM J J Granger VAR J M IGEM J J J ( 下转第 88 页 )

8 Aspect Oriented Training AOT and Its Application in Interdisciplinary Talents Cultivation YU Bo School of Economics Tianjin University of Finance and Economics Tianjin China Abstract In today s society the demand of diversity talents has become more urgent so demanding oriented personnel training s mode also gradually becomes the basic power of 21st century education system development and change. In this mode the core of talent cultivation is " discipline integration" through the reconstruction of the teaching process to optimize the learning process and improve the efficiency of personnel training. Based on Financial Informatization Course as an example through the target of talent training teaching difficulty teaching countermeasure this paper analyses the specific problems in the interdisciplinary talents cultivation and ingenious Aspect Oriented Training Aspect Oriented Training the compound talents cultivation of new ideas. Key words section teaching method financial information interdisciplinary teaching mode ( 责任编辑 : 沈五 ) ( 上接第 64 页 ) An Empirical Study of International Oil Prices Impact on China s Industrial Economy NIE Gaohui 1 CHEN Na 1 YANG Kun 2 1. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics Nanchang Jiangxi China 2. Anhui Branch China Unicon ltd. Hefei Anhui China Abstract China s rapid economic rising leads to Chinese becoming the world s leading oil importing and consuming country while China s oil reserves is barren so China s economic development must be subject to international oil price fluctuations. Therefore this paper selects China s industrial fixed assets investment rate increase in industrial output value industrial employment and WTI oil price data over the period of 1991 to 2011 to construct VAR 2 model based on the U. S. West Texas light crude oil West Taxas Intermediate Crude Oil WTI oil price as the representatives of international oil prices and thus analyses the impulse response and variance. The major conclusions are as follows in the short term the effects of international oil prices on the industrial fixed assets investment rate and the increase in industrial output value exhibits pulling after first inhibiting. And then in the long term effect is not obvious. This indicates that the international oil price fluctuations have a negative effect on the healthy and desirable development pace of China s industrial economy. Key words international oil prices China industrial economy VAR model ( 责任编辑 : 沈五 )

Myers Majluf 1984 Lu Putnam R&D R&D R&D R&D

Myers Majluf 1984 Lu Putnam R&D R&D R&D R&D 2018 1 156 1 2 2 1. 233030 2. 233030 2005 ~ 2015 A F830. 2 A 1008-2506 2018 01-0015-12 1 2015 1 2017-07-18 71540004 BBSLDQDKT2017B02 1990-1993 - 1964-1 15 2018 1 2025 2015 1 2011 2 + Myers Majluf 1984