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1 3 ( ; ) : (panel data),, ,,,,,,,,,, ; 4,20 90, : 3 Stata,, Gary Fields, ( The University of Namur) Philippe Van Kerm, Incomob Package Philippe Income Mobility,,, (position) (rank),,,, i j, X 1 = (1 i,0 j ), x 2 = (0 i,1 j ), 1100,, 1,,,, (panel data) (income mobility),,,,,, ; 56

2 Joseph Schumpeter ( Fields,2001),,,,,,(mobility) Shorrcks A. (1978a b), Chakravarty S.,Dutta B. and Weymark J. (1985), Atkinson A. and Morrisson C., (1992),Fields G. and OK F. (1996, 1999a) Fields (1999b),, ( Fields, ) 20 90,,Shi Xinzheng,Terry and Yaohui Zhao (2002) Knight J.,Li Shi and Zhao Renwei (2003) (,2004),,Nee Victor (1994,1996) Nee and Liedka (1997) Nee,,, , ( )? (1) 4, ;,? (2),,? (3) 1989? 80 90, , (1), ;, ( ), ;80 90, (2),, (3),,, (4) 4,90,,, (China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey,CHN) 8, www. cpc. unc. edu 57

3 ( ) 4 3, , 3,800,16,000, (panel data) 1997,1Π2,1Π6 Shi Xinzheng Terry and Yaohuo Zhao (2002),, ,,CHN, CHN , (2004), ( ) CHN , , 1997,,, ,,,, ( ) , , 7, 9, 7 8, Fields (2001),,Shorrocks (1978a b),, (time2dependence) x y (transition matrix) P( x, y) = [ p ij ( x, y) ], x y, x y x y, p ij ( x, y) x i y j, m m p j = 1 ij ( x, y), i t - 1, t,5, 5 5 i j p ij,t - 1 i t j , p 11 = %,42 %p 21 = % 8 %, p 51 = 0108 p 55 = 0146, 46 % (1,1),, (5,5) 58

4 2005 1, 1, t, (perfect t time dependence), , (perfect negative time dependence), , ,,,, (time independence),,,,,, 012 : P = P, chi2square, 2 = ij 012 ( p ij - 012), 2, 2,, 1-2,,,, ( ) 4, 4, 4,? 2 5, , Π3,, 2, Pearson, (1) chi square chi square P 5, N, p N p 59

5 2, ( CHN ) ( %) ( ) > = ( ) > = ( ) > = ( ) > = > = , 100 % = 1, 60

6 ,,, ,,,,, ( ) ( ),,,,, ,50 % 4517 %, %,, ( ) 2 ( ),,,, ; ; 61

7 ,,1Π3?, 80 90, 20 %,,,,,, , 4,,? ( ) 4,,,, Nee (1994) ,,, , , , (5,5), , ,,,80 90,,,, (1,1) (5,5) , ,,,4,,,,, , , ( ) 2,, 62

8 (30 49 ) (50 59 ),, (20 29) (60 ), 40 49, 50 59,, 50 59, 40 49,,, 40 49, ,,,,, 3,, 1995,, (1,1),, (5,5), 2,,,,, Shorrocks (1978b), Atkinson, Bourguignon and Morrisson (1992), Jarvis and Jenkins(1998) (equalizer) Fields (2002) Chakravarty, Dutta and Weymark (1985) Shorroks (1978b), (progressivity),p P 1 - G( gy) G( y 1 ),gy, y 1, G(. ), P P > 0 gy y 1, ; P < 0, P = 0 gy y 1 63

P 4 i j, 3 P i > P j,i 1989 01427 01469 01362 01420 01314 j 1989 1991 01352 01364 01309 01351 01267 4 1989 1997 1991 01389 01403 01348 01384 01289, 4 4,, P 5 1989 1993 1993 5 1997, P, 1993 1997 P,

9 P 4 i j, 3 P i > P j,i j , 4 4,, P , P, P, : P , , ,4,, P,, 4,,, P,, P, P 64

10 ,,,, Buchinsky M. (2003), GDP, 20 90,, ,, ?,,,,, 90 ;,,,,, ,, 1997,,2004 :, 2,2004 :, 2 Atkinson, A., and Morrisson C.,1992, Empirical Studies of Earnings Mobility, Chur, Switzerland : Harwood. Buchinsky M., Fields G., Fougere. D. Unpublished working paper, Cornell University., and Kramarz F., 2003, Francs or Ranks? Earnings Mobility in France, Chakravarty S., Dutta B. and Weymark J.,1985, Ethical Indices of Income Mobility,Social Choice and Welfare 2 :1 21. Fields G., and OK F. Fields G., and OK F.,1996, The Meaning and Measurement of Income Mobility, Journal of Economic Theory 71 : ,1999a, Measuring Movement of Income, Economica 66 (264) : Fields G. and Ok F,,1999b, The Measurement of Income mobility : An introduction to the literature, In Silber J. ed., Handbook of income inequality measurement, Boston : Kluwer Academic Publishers. Fields G., Leary J and OK F. Fields G.,2001, Stochastic Dominance in Mobility Analysis, Unpublished Working Paper, Cornell University.,2001, Distribution and Development, A New Look at the Developing World, London : The MIT Press. Fileds G. 2002, Does Income Mobility Equalize Longer2Term Income? New Measurers of An Old Concept, Unpublished Working Paper, Cornell University. Jarvis S. and Jenkins S.,1998, How Much Income Mobility Is There in Britain? The economic Journal 108 (March) :1 16. Knight J., Li Shi and Zhao Renwei, 2003, Spatial inequality in urban China : Divergent means, Convergent inequality, Paper Presented for the UNUΠWIDER Project Conference on Spatial Inequality in Asia, United Nations University Center, Tokyo, March Nee V., 1994, The Emergence of a Market Society : Changing Mechanisms of Stratification in China, Working Papers on Transitions from State Socialism (April) Cornell University. Nee V., 1996, The Emergence of a Market Society : Changing Mechanisms of Stratification in China, American Journal of Sociology (January). Nee V. and Liedka R., 1997, Markets and Inequality in the Transition from State Socialism, In Midlarsky M., ed., Inequality, democracy, and Economic Development. New York : Cambridge University Press. 65

11 Shi Xinzheng, Terry Sicular, Yaohui Zhao.,2002, Analyzing Urban2Rural Income Inequality in China, Discussion Draft, CCER, Peking University. Shorrcks A.,1978a, The Measurement of Mobility. Econometrica 46 : Shorrcks A. 1978b, Income Inequalityt and Income Mobility, Journal of Economic Theory 46 : The Household Income Mobility and Its Equalizing Long2term Income in China Wang Haigang ( The Center for Social, Economic and Culture Studies,Peking University Department of Economics, Lingnan College, Sun Yat2sen University) Abstract :Reconstructing 4 sets of panel data of household incomes and the properties of the household heads extracted from the China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey, this paper measures the income mobility of overall distribution and 4 household groups from the end of 1980s to the late 1990s. Income mobility is defined by the concept of time2dependence. Within the overall incomes distribution we find 1) the household groups that persistently stayed at the bottom quintile with higher probability were uncertain ; 2) the closer a household group dwelled to cities, the greater likelihood the households of the group at the top quintile would remain their position next period. The rural households at the bottom would stay there next period with a little bit higher probability than averagely, however they remained at the top with an indeed lower probability. Among the household groups, the rural ones shared much high degree of mobility than the other 3 groups. Within each sub2group, the households with their heads were at the age of and or receiving more schooling shared more well2beings. At the all 4 periods, the income mobility helped to equalize the income distribution among the households. Its role as the income equalizer decreased in late 1990s among rural and township households, but increased among urban households. Key Words : Income Mobility ;Transition Matrix ; Inequality JEL Classification :D300 (: ) ( : ) ( 46 ) What Accounts for Chinaπs Trade Balance Dynamics? Zhang Yin Wan Guanghua (World Institute for Development Economics Research, United Nations University ; College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University of China) Abstract :This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Rold s (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of Chinaπs trade balance fluctuations in the period of Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long2run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined 2 the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in Chinaπs trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress Chinaπs trade imbalance. Key Words : Trade Balance ; Real Exchange Rate ; Structural VAR ; Law of One Price JEL Classification :O530, F400, E (: ) ( : )

: 3 : , , ,, , :, ( Ravallion Chen, 2004 ; Khan Riskin, 2005,Yue et al, 2006),, (,2003 ;,200

: 3 : , , ,, , :, ( Ravallion Chen, 2004 ; Khan Riskin, 2005,Yue et al, 2006),, (,2003 ;,200 : 3 : 1995 2002, 1998 2002 1991 1995, 1991 1995,, 1998 2002, :, 80 013 0145 (Ravallion Chen, 2004 ; Khan Riskin, 2005,Yue et al, 2006),, (,2003 ;,2006),, (Li et al,1998),,,?,, ( Fields, 2005),,, (income