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1 寻找存量市场的增量 2017 下半年港股 TMT 硬件行业投资策略证券分析师 : 武煜 A AXT645 研究支持 : 李欣伟 A BHK

2 主要内容 1. 手机行业, 整合周期 2. 产业链分析 : 光学, 机壳及声学 3. 推荐标的, 细分领域龙头企业 2

3 1.1 手机行业, 整合周期手机渗透率基本到达巅峰中国百人手机保有量资料来源 : 工信部, 申万宏源研究基础搭建快速爆发 ( ) 结构调整 (2016-) 未来发展移动网络覆盖率提高与移动设备普及智能手机市场需求爆发多元化, 智能化精品化策略, 中国手机品牌异军突起拥有技术优势的公司有更多的销量技术升级, 深度挖掘客户需求时间资料来源 : 申万宏源研究 3

4 1.1 手机行业, 整合周期存量市场博弈, 手机整体出货量及 ASP 增长较 3G 时代已放缓 20 全球手机销量增速及同比 20% 250 全球手机单价及同比增速 12% 15 15% 10% 5% % 4% 0% % -5% 100-4% 单位,USD 800 销量 ( 单位 : 亿 ) 同比增速 ASP(USD) 同比增速资料来源 :IDC, 申万宏源研究资料来源 :IDC, 申万宏源研究 Oppo R 系列及 iphone 历史平均单价 Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 Oppo R iphone 4 资料来源 :IDC, 申万宏源研究

5 1.1 手机行业, 整合周期旗舰产品上量, 整体行业在低单位数增长同时, 主力厂商仍然维持高增速单位, 千台 15,000 主力机型 4 个主要销售季度销量 10,000 5,000 0 P8 P9 R7&R7 lite R9 Galaxy J5 Galaxy J7 手机品牌季度销售量资料来源 :IDC, 申万宏源研究单位 : 百万 3Q 16 同比增长 4Q 16 同比增长 1Q 17 同比增长三星 % % % 苹果 % % % 华为 % % % OPPO % % % VIVO % % % 其他 % % % 资料来源 :IDC, 申万宏源研究 5

6 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr 手机行业, 整合周期 100% 80% 60% 40% 国内手机 1Q 拉货正常,2Q 较平淡, 但渠道库存水平已基本回归去年水平, 等待 3Q 新旗舰机型 (Vivo? Huawei?) 上量中国月度手机销量同比增速国产手机主力机型发行时间华为 P10/ P10 plus 2017/2/26 华为 P9 2016/4/6 华为荣耀 V9 2017/2/28 华为荣耀 V8 2016/5/10 华为荣耀 /6/12 华为荣耀 /7/11 华为 nova2 2017/5/26 华为 nova 2016/9/1 20% 0% 华为 mate10??? 华为 mate9 系列 2016/11/14 OPPO R /6/10 OPPO R9 2016/3/7 OPPO R11 plus 2017/6/30 OPPO R9 plus 2016/3/7-20% OPPO R11s??? OPPO R9s 2016/10/19 OPPO R11s Plus??? OPPO R9s Plus 2016/10/19-40% 资料来源 : 工信部, 申万宏源研究舜宇光学手机模组月出货量资料来源 : 申万宏源研究单位 : 千 1 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月 ,625 12,085 15,888 19,369 19,400 25,401 23,706 27,677 26,684 26,364 28,209 29,453 手机模组 ,813 29,427 23,372 21,099 21,488 同比增速 % % 47.10% 8.93% 10.76% 资料来源 : 舜宇光学官方网站, 申万宏源研究 6

7 1.2 手机行业, 整合周期渠道为王? 性价比? No 精品化, 客户需求为导向, 零部件小厂商份额逐渐下降,winner takes all 资料来源 : 手机官网, 申万宏源研究 7

8 1.1 手机行业, 整合周期 BOM 成本增长, 手机零部件利润空间有提升, 小零部件由于消费者需求, 提升空间更大, 如双摄 BOM 成本占比并不稳定, 主要看客户需求 iphone7 iphone 成本拆分 iphone8 单摄像头 ASP:13USD % of BOM cost:6.5% Oled 全面屏 ASP:90 USD % of BOM cost : 26% 屏幕 ASP:40USD % of BOM cost::20% 双摄像头 + 3D sensor ASP:40 USD % of BOM cost : 12% 资料来源 :IHS, 申万宏源研究 8

9 1.1 手机行业, 整合周期微笑曲线的启示, 在苹果豪取全行业 90% 利润前提下, 手机零部件厂商龙头优势也将愈加明显高微笑曲线附加价值研发设计 : 高通核心零部件厂商 : 瑞声, 舜宇一线手机品牌 : 苹果, 三星低上游组装 : 富智康下游资料来源 : 申万宏源研究 9

10 1.1 手机行业, 整合周期高毛利? 高良率所致苹果台积电舜宇镜头大立光舜宇模组欧非邱钛瑞声科技歌尔股份毛利率 37.5% 51.94% 40% 67.11% 11% 11.48% 8.46% 45.49% 24.60% ROE 36.9% 25.99% 25.8% 32.42% 25.8% 10.21% 13.70% 31.58% 16.31% ASP 行业平均毛利良率优势带来的额外毛利产品单价行业平均产品成本龙头企业产品成本收益曲线资料来源 :Bloomberg, 申万宏源研究龙头企业良率行业平均良率良率时间轴资料来源 : 申万宏源研究 10

11 主要内容 1. 手机产业升级 2. 产业链分析 : 光学, 机壳及声学 3. 推荐标的, 细分领域龙头企业 11

12 2.1 手机零配件厂商转型升级单一产品及组产品升级, 规技术优势, 占硬件为支撑, 集成软件及算法应用装业务模效应领行业地位向高端产品渗透, 提供系列解决方案, 进一步挖掘现有市场份额技术壁垒低产品毛利低, 竞争激烈良率改善, 自动化提升带来成本优势, 市场份额不断提升引领行业, 超越行业平均毛利, 供应商议价能力进一步提升人均利润进一步提升, 估值体系重构资料来源 : 申万宏源研究 12

13 2.2 摄像头模组, 产业升级像素光圈升级, 到如今双目看世界苹果及三星镜头像素及光圈升级路线资料来源 : 手机官方网站, 申万宏源研究 13

14 2.2 摄像头模组, 寡头效应凸显模组安卓阵营 : 采用 COB 工艺一线厂商 : 舜宇,Semco; 二线 : 欧菲, 邱钛苹果阵营 : 采用 FC 工艺一线厂商 :LG Innotek,Sharp; 二线 : 高伟镜头安卓阵营 : 大立光, 舜宇, 光宝苹果阵营 : 大立光, 光宝两大模组工艺对比苹果摄像头模组价格拆分摄像头模组厚度 COB 相对较薄 FC 较 COB 薄约 1mm 单位 : 美元 iphone 6s 4.7" iphone6s 5.5" iphone 7 4.7" iphone7 5.5" CMOS 致密精确性高高图像质量高高产品良率 96% 低于 96% 生产线成本约 1000 万较 COB 高 30-50% 应用安卓手机苹果手机资料来源 : 赛迪网, 申万宏源研究镜头马达 1.1 OIS OIS Driver 组装整体成本资料来源 :IHS, 申万宏源研究

2.2 摄像头模组行业, 寡头效应凸显高端双摄几乎被舜宇垄断 ( 国产 HOV 主力机型订单绝对主供地位 ), 舜宇以质取胜,

09 出货量 (kk) 15.58 同比 9.85 9.23 欧菲光舜宇丘钛微众合群成像通 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.

00% 资料来源 : 旭日产业研究, 申万宏源研究全面屏大规模应用将倒逼手机模组厂做更小更窄的模组, 安卓阵营舜宇绝对垄断型技术优势 50

15 2.2 摄像头模组行业, 寡头效应凸显高端双摄几乎被舜宇垄断 ( 国产 HOV 主力机型订单绝对主供地位 ), 舜宇以质取胜, 二线模组厂依赖规模效应, 靠量取胜主要模组供应商 2017 年 4 月出货量出货量 (kk) 同比欧菲光舜宇丘钛微众合群成像通 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % % % % 资料来源 : 旭日产业研究, 申万宏源研究全面屏大规模应用将倒逼手机模组厂做更小更窄的模组, 安卓阵营舜宇绝对垄断型技术优势模组封装工艺主要模组供应商 ASP 欧菲光舜宇丘钛微资料来源 : 舜宇, 欧非, 邱钛上市公司资料, 申万宏源研究体积 : 100% 88.6% 77.8% 15 资料来源 : 舜宇光学, 申万宏源研究

16 2.2 摄像头模组行业, 新增需求 3D sensor 预期明年 HOV 主力机型上量渗透率不会比今年双摄高, 舜宇有望于明年拿到订单 16 资料来源 : 申万宏源研究

17 2.3 机壳设计, 两级分化产业链集中度明显, 以富士康及 BYDE 为主长盈精密比亚迪电子瑞声科技富士康通达集团 CNC 数量 5K-6K 22.5K 6.5K 20K 6K 三星未来可能会有 A,J S 系列,Note 系列 A J 华为 Mate,P 系列主供及其他中低端 Nova Mate P 系列主供及其他中低端 Vivo 主要供应商新拿到 X 系列订单主力供应商 Oppo 主要供应商 R11 主要供应商主力供应商 LG 主要供应商主要供应商小米主要供应商资料来源 : 长盈精密, 比亚迪电子, 瑞声科技, 通达集团, 申万宏源研究 17

18 2.3 机壳设计, 产业进阶由于未来 5G 天线设计复杂性及无线充电应用, 传统金属机壳设计向玻璃进发过去 : 金属机壳现在 : 金属中框 + 玻璃陶瓷设计? 谨慎, 良率低, 单价高玻璃机壳金属机壳优点缺点硬度高抗划伤耐磨视觉效果好透光度好, 可用于无线充电等场景易沾染指纹易碎 3D 玻璃盖板价格较高, 单片价格在 90 元左右, 且良率较低耐磨抗摔质感好制造工序多, 不易抛光, 开孔困难, 成本相对较高, 易形变, 干扰电磁信号 18 热弯热弯玻璃工序需要挑选热弯模具 ( 实心模条框模空心模 ) 热弯的操作过程要求高合片真空预热预压高温高压资料来源 : 申万宏源研究金属外壳加工流程原料成型加工后处理成品阳极氧化铝微弧氧化铝镁铝合金不锈钢锻压冲压压铸 NMT LDS CNC 资料来源 : 申万宏源研究喷砂拉丝抛光刻蚀电镀 PVD 喷涂镭雕高光切割阳极氧化微弧氧化手机金属外壳资料来源 : 申万宏源研究

19 2.4 声学升级 AAC 引领技术潮流, 从播放器向 speaker box, 再走到最后 mini hifi 效果 ASP 声学产品升级路径 iphone 6 iphone 8 $4 $9 立体 + 防水微型音响普通扬声器迷你 hifi Receiver Receiver module 19 Speaker Speaker Box 资料来源 : 瑞声科技, 申万宏源研究

20 主要内容 1. 手机产业升级 2. 产业链分析 : 光学, 机壳及声学 3. 推荐标的, 细分领域龙头企业 20

21 3.1 手机零配件厂商年化收益曲线港股主要的零配件公司 : 比亚迪电子 (285.HK): 手机组装业务及手机金属背壳信利国际 (0732.HK): 手机显示屏, 摄像头模组及指纹识别模组瑞声科技 (2018.HK): 声学产品, 触控马达, 射频结构件丘钛科技 (1478.HK): 摄像头模组及镜头舜宇光学 (2382.HK): 摄像头模组及镜头通达集团 (0698.HK): 金属背壳 % % 2017 年 1H 绝对收益 % % 50.00% 0.00% 2017/01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ % 比亚迪电子信利国际瑞声科技丘钛科技舜宇光学科技通达集团恒生综合指数恒生国企指数 21 资料来源 :Wind, 申万宏源研究

22 3.2 手机零配件厂商转型升级 _ 盈利能力对比各家收入维持良好增长, 人均利润舜宇及瑞声领先历史收入及净利润增长同比增长收入净利润收入净利润比亚迪电子 5.01% % 25.32% 35.83% 舜宇光学 21.25% 21.65% 36.58% 66.85% 瑞声科技 26.67% 27.10% 31.39% 29.57% 通达集团 37.13% 75.53% 29.55% 42.85% 丘钛科技 -9.95% % % 87.02% 歌尔股份 7.54% % 41.24% 29.71% 欧菲光 -5.05% % 44.59% 49.85% 人均利润及收入资料来源 : 上市公司年报, 申万宏源研究 2014 人均收入增速 2015 人均收入增速 2016 人均收入增速 2015 人均利润 2016 人均利润舜宇光学科技 12.55% 16.97% 16.20% 47,540 62,949 瑞声科技 % 19.44% 9.36% 87,060 86,768 信利国际 % 29.44% 15.85% 40,067 23,182 比亚迪电子 19.10% 32.17% 63.27% 13,554 16,012 歌尔股份 4.54% -7.35% 13.83% 31,809 52,090 欧菲光 % % 50.78% 16,828 26,322 平均 1.61% 25.98% 20.63% 38,857 47,685 资料来源 : 上市公司年报, 申万宏源研究 22

23 3. 推荐标的 : 舜宇光学 ( 买入评级 ) 受益于双摄升级, 手机模组及镜头业务在近年将迎来爆发式增长车载镜头每年维持 30% 稳健增长舜宇光学科技收入及增速 revenue YoY % % E 2018E 2019E 0.00% 资料来源 : 申万宏源研究 E 2018E 2019E 营业收入 ( 百万 ) 10, , , , , 同比增长 26.94% 36.61% 71.73% 33.91% 18.88% EPS 同比增长 36.04% 65.14% 88.59% 47.20% 27.06% 23 PE( 以 7.4 价格为基准 ) 资料来源 :Bloomberg, 申万宏源研究

24 3. 推荐标的 : 比亚迪电子 ( 买入评级 ) 金属机壳业务增速喜人, 毛利 + 收入双增长明年玻璃机壳提供新收入增量比亚迪电子收入及增速 FY E 2017E 2018E 2019E 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% revenue YoY 资料来源 : 申万宏源研究 E 2018E 2019E 营业收入 ( 百万 ) 29,285 36,734 37,000 42,000 45,000 同比增长 47.67% 25.43% 0.72% 13.51% 7.14% EPS 同比增长 0.72% 35.83% % 15.82% 7.39% PE( 以 7.4 价格为基准 ) 资料来源 :Bloomberg, 申万宏源研究 24

25 3. 推荐标的 : 瑞声科技 ( 未评级 ) 声学及触控马达等传统业务稳健增长瑞声科技收入及增速天线加机壳设计及未来玻璃机壳未来给手机厂商提供一系列解决方案 % 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 收入 ( 亿元 ) 同比增长资料来源 :Bloomberg, 申万宏源研究 E 2018E 2019E 营业收入 ( 亿元 ) 同比增长 32.21% 32.10% 32.46% 18.94% 15.29% EPS 同比增长 36.06% 26.81% 32.46% 19.50% 16.41% 25 PE( 以 7.4 价格为基准 ) 资料来源 :Bloomberg, 申万宏源研究

26 4.1 相对估值表电子主要标的相对估值电子标的估值对比代码公司市值股价 ( ) ( ) ( 百万港元人民 ( 港元 / 人民币 ) 币 ) 收入 ( 百万元 ) 同比增长净利润 ( 百万元 ) 同比增长市盈率 (x) 市净率 (x) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E 2382:HK 舜宇光学 ,251 25,093 33, % 33.91% 2,396 3, % 47.20% :HK 比亚迪电子 ,792 37,000 42, % 13.51% % 15.82% :HK 信利国际 ,792 24,842 27, % 12.50% % 29.06% :HK 瑞声科技 ,287 20,541 24, % 18.94% 5,358 6, % 18.85% :HK 丘钛科技 ,108 7,740 9, % 27.67% % 32.39% :HK 通达集团 ,950 9,906 11, % 18.30% 1,336 1, % 23.09% SZ 欧菲光 ,517 40,483 54, % 35.55% 1,423 2, % 50.64% SZ 歌尔股份 ,448 25,338 31, % 23.77% 2,194 2, % 27.57% 行业平均资料来源 :Bloomberg, 申万宏源研究 26

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29 简单金融成就梦想 A Virtue of Simple Finance 上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司 ( 隶属于申万宏源证券有限公司 ) 李欣伟 lixw@swsresearch.com 29

Microsoft Word - A_Daily20160229

Microsoft Word - A_Daily20160229 高曉慶, Stanley Kao 陳漢輝, Freddy Chan 申萬宏源研究 ( 香港 ) 有限公司申萬宏源 A 股每日資訊 - Shenwan Hongyuan A-Share Daily Notes stanley.kao@swhyhk.com freddy.hf.chan@swhyhk.com 2016 年 2 月 29 日星期一 (852)