機構股票研究濟川藥業 ( SH) 半年報業績亮眼, 核心品種持續增長中國醫藥公司研報投資概要公司半年報業績增長顯著, 營業收入同比增長 35.36%, 歸母淨利潤增長 44.81% 全年業績增長確定性強, 我們調高 2018/19 年每股淨收益預測 2.11 元 /2.97

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機構股票研究濟川藥業 (600566.SH) 半年報業績亮眼, 核心品種持續增長中國醫藥公司研報投資概要公司半年報業績增長顯著, 營業收入同比增長 35.36%, 歸母淨利潤增長 44.81% 全年業績增長確定性強, 我們調高 2018/19 年每股淨收益預測 2.11 元 /2.97 元由於近期市場波動, 調低目標市盈率至 20 倍,6 個月目標價 42.

22%, 利润增速明显主要是因為銷售費用管理費用增長得到有效控制所致經營活動產生的現金流量淨額較同期增長 43.

1 機構股票研究濟川藥業 ( SH) 半年報業績亮眼, 核心品種持續增長中國醫藥公司研報投資概要公司半年報業績增長顯著, 營業收入同比增長 35.36%, 歸母淨利潤增長 44.81% 全年業績增長確定性強, 我們調高 2018/19 年每股淨收益預測 2.11 元 /2.97 元由於近期市場波動, 調低目標市盈率至 20 倍,6 個月目標價 42.2 元, 建議短期謹慎操作, 逢低收集 ( 現價截至 10 月 12 日 ) 公司概況半年報業績增長亮眼 2018 年上半年, 公司實現營業收入 38 億元, 較上年同期增長 35.36%, 歸母淨利潤 8.42 億元, 扣非淨利潤 8.2 億元, 分別比同期增長 44.81% 51.22%, 利润增速明显主要是因為銷售費用管理費用增長得到有效控制所致經營活動產生的現金流量淨額較同期增長 43.72%, 主要是由於銷售規模擴大資金回籠增加所致核心品種受眾廣泛, 持續增長蒲地藍消炎口服液為獨家劑型, 臨床上主要用於腮腺炎咽炎扁桃體炎癤腫等 ; 小兒豉翹清熱顆粒為獨家品種, 主治小兒風熱感冒 2018 年, 蒲地藍消炎口服液小兒豉翹清熱顆粒被江蘇省中醫藥局發佈的江蘇省流行性感冒中醫診療方案 (2018 版 ) 列為防治流感推薦用藥; 廣東省衛生計生委中醫藥局疾控中心和中醫藥學會共同發佈的 2018 年版廣東省中醫藥防治手足口病專家共識將其列為手足口病診療推薦用藥由於兩種產品的獨家特性, 加上在醫院端和 OTC 藥店均可以銷售, 預計未來增長動力將持續強勁行銷管道優勢明顯公司以專業化學術推廣為主渠道分銷為輔, 成立了專業化的學術推廣部門, 行銷辦事機構覆蓋全國 30 個省市自治區, 擁有超過 3,000 人的行銷團隊公司目前銷售終端包括醫院 OTC 藥店基層醫療機構等在 OTC 零售終端, 公司成立 OTC 管理團隊, 針對性地開展終端動銷, 實施 OTC 品種的陳列宣傳和推廣活動研發工作持續推進報告期內, 公司完成了琥珀酸普蘆卡必利片他達拉非片的 BE 試驗截止至上半年, 公司藥品在研專案中獲得臨床試驗批件 17 項, 進入 BE 試驗 1 項, 完成 BE 試驗 2 項, 申報生產 16 項公司與中國中醫科學院中藥研究所合作開展了蒲地藍消炎口服液的二次開發項目, 為後續產品的品質控制提供支撐報告期內, 公司獲得 5 項專利 ( 包括 : 一種蒲地藍抗菌止癢沐浴露及其製備方法泊沙康唑口服混懸劑及其製備方法一種西他沙星的合成方法一種西他沙星顆粒劑及其製備方法及一種中藥複方及其在製備治療慢性盆腔炎的藥物中的應用 ) 估值和風險增持 16 October 2018 現價 RMB36.75 ( 現價截至 10 月 12 日 ) 目標價 RMB42.2 (+15%) 公司資料普通股股東 ( 百萬股 ) : 市值 ( 人民幣百萬元 ) : 29, 周最高價 / 最低價 ( 人民幣 ) : / 主要股東, % Jiangsu Jumpcan Group 51.5 Tibet Jumpcan Investment Company 股價表現, % 1 個月 3 個月 1 年濟川藥業滬深股價 & 恒生指數 Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財務資料 RMB mn FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Net Sales 4,678 5,642 7,617 9,902 Net Profit 934 1,223 1,709 2,401 EPS, RMB PER, x BVPS, RMB P/BV, x ROE, % Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 周霖 ( ) euruszhou@phillip.com.hk 我們目標價為 42.2 元人民幣行業績優龍頭, 股市波動, 建議逢低收集公司 2017 年 2018 年上半年業績增長強勁, 遠高於行業平均水準鑒於上半年的強勁增長, 我們調高年的每股收益預測至 2.11 元 /2.97 元, 基於 20 倍目標市盈率,6 個月目標價 42.2 元風險包括 : 銷售增長不及預期 ; 大股東減持 ; 行業政策風險 Page 1 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH

2 圖表 : 公司毛利率與淨利率 Source: Company, Phillip Securities 圖表 : 同業公司對比 ( 單位 : 百萬元 ) 代碼證券簡稱總市值總收入淨利潤總收入同比增長率 (%) 淨利潤同比增長率 (%) 18H H1 17 ROE% 市盈率 17A 18E 19E 市淨率 SH 濟川藥業 29, , , 滬深最高值 107, , , 中位值 22, , 平均值 30, , , SH 康美藥業 107, , , SZ 雲南白藥 73, , , SH 片仔癀 54, , SH 白雲山 52, , , SH 同仁堂 40, , , SH 天士力 31, , , SZ 東阿阿膠 28, , , SZ 康弘藥業 25, , SH 步長制藥 22, , , SZ 華潤三九 22, , , SH 康恩貝 17, , SZ 吉林敖東 16, , , SH 中新藥業 12, , SZ 以嶺藥業 12, , SZ 九芝堂 12, , SZ 貴州百靈 11, , SH 廣譽遠 11, , SZ 奇正藏藥 10, , SH 珍寶島 9, , 香港 Page 2 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH

3 最高值 52, , , 中位值 4, , 平均值 9, , HK 白雲山 52, , , HK 中國中藥 19, , , HK 綠葉制藥 16, , HK 同仁堂科技 11, , HK 同仁堂國藥 10, , HK 神威藥業 7, , HK 康臣藥業 4, , HK 華瀚健康 3, HK 中智藥業 1, HK 順騰國際控 - 股 (111.6) HK 培力控股 HK 位元堂 (92.6) HK 北斗嘉藥業 (73.6) Source: Wind (as at Oct 12th), Phillip Securities 圖表 : 歷史市盈率區間 Source: Wind (as at Oct 12th), Phillip Securities Page 3 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH

4 圖表 : 歷史市淨率區間 Source: Wind (as at Oct 12th), Phillip Securities Page 4 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH

5 財務報告 P&L RMB mn E 2019E Revenue 3,768 4,678 5,642 7,617 9,902 COGS (590) (690) (849) (1,181) (1,485) Gross Profit 3,178 3,987 4,793 6,436 8,416 Operating Expense (2,422) (2,931) (3,424) (4,513) (5,693) Operating Income 756 1,056 1,369 1,924 2,723 Net Non-operating Gain/Loss Pretax Income 800 1,088 1,436 1,999 2,808 Tax (116) (154) (212) (290) (407) Net Profit ,223 1,709 2, E 2019E Growth (%) Revenue Gross Profit Operating Profit Net Profit Profit Margin (%) GPM OPM NPM Key Ratio P/E P/B EPS/RMB Dividend /RMB BVPS/RMB ROE% ROA Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates ( 財務資料截至 2018 年 10 月 12 日 ) Page 5 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH

6 PHILL 濟川藥業 ( SH) 公司研報 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ( PSHK ) believed to be accurate. PSHK does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant investment products. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)

7 PHILL 濟川藥業 ( SH) 公司研報 SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore Tel : (65) Fax : (65) Website: HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax (852) Websites: INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta Indonesia Tel (62-21) Fax (62-21) Website: THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66-2) / Fax (66-2) Websitewww.phillip.co.th UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) Fax (44-20) Website: MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) Fax (603) Website: JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Tel (81-3) Fax (81-3) Website: CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 436 Hengfeng Road, Greentech Unit 604, Postal code Tel (86-21) Fax (86-21) Website: FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33-1) Fax (33-1) Website: UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel Fax AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) Fax (613) Website:

濟川藥業 (600566 CH) 公司研報外延並購豐富產品線濟川藥業於 2014 年底收購東科製藥 70% 股權, 該公司擁有全國獨家品種 7 個獨家劑型 5 個, 主要產品婦炎舒膠囊甘海胃康

濟川藥業 (600566 CH) 公司研報外延並購豐富產品線濟川藥業於 2014 年底收購東科製藥 70% 股權, 該公司擁有全國獨家品種 7 個獨家劑型 5 個, 主要產品婦炎舒膠囊甘海胃康機構股票研究濟川藥業 (600566.CH) 兒童藥市場將支撐高速增長中國醫藥公司研報 19 August,2016 上半年業績大幅增長 2016 年上半年實現營收 23.5 億元, 同比增長 25.7%, 扣非後歸母淨利潤 4.2 億元, 同比增長 37.8%, 基本每股收