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1 DOI /j.cnki.jfe Vol.40No JournalofFinanceandEconomics Oct.2014, (, ),,, (1) ;(2) 0.848, ;(3),,, ; ; F812.5 A (2014) , 200% 60%,,,20 80, 45%, 200%, , % 60%, 20.57%(=60%-39.43%) 60% ( ) (1968-), ; 18 (1987-),, ; (1988-),,

2 ,,,, McCalum (1984),Hamilton Flavin(1986) Wilcox(1989) Trehan Walsh(1991) McCalum Celasun (2007) Bohn(1998,2005,2007),,, 1 Bohn,,Ostry (2010) Bohn,, Bohn(1998,2005,2007) Ostry (2010),, Bohn,, IMF(2003), (Abiad Ostry,2005;Celasun Kang,2006;Mendoza Ostry,2008),, 50%, Ostry (2010), 40%, ; 40%, ;,, Ghosh (2013) Ostry (2010) ( ) Bohn,Ghosh (2013) ;, 1 = -( - ) 19

3 Bohn ;,, Bohn, (,2003;,2007;,2011), ; (,2013;,2013) Celasun (2007),, Bohn 2013,, Ghosh (2013),Goyal(2011) Hoshi Ito (2014),,, Ghosh (2013),, ( ), Dt = (1+rt)Dt-1 -St (1),Dt t,st t,rt Bohn(1998,2005,2007), GDP (1) GDP Dt Yt = 1+rt 1+gt Dt-1 Yt-1 - St Yt (2),gt dt = Dt Yt,st = St Yt 1+rt 1+rt-gt, (2) 1+gt dt = (1+rt -gt)dt-1 -st (3),dt t ( GDP ),st t ( GDP ) (3) dt-1 20 dt -dt-1 = (rt -gt)dt-1 -st (4)

4 (4), rt gt st, (rt-gt)dt-1>st Bohn st dt-1 st dt-1 st=α+ρdt-1+βzt+εt (5), ρ, ρ >0 ; ρ 0 Zt YVAR GVAR,εt Bohn(1998,2005,2007) ρ>0, Bohn Mendoza Ostry(2008), Ghosh (2013) Mendoza Ostry(2008), st =μ t +f (dt-1)+εt (6),f(dt-1) dt-1, μ t YVAR GVAR dt-1 0 ; 0,,dt-1 0 dt-dt-1 = (rt-gt)dt-1-st st(dt-1) (rt -gt)dt-1 1, st(dt-1) f(dt-1) ;, ;, (rt-gt)dt-1 st(dt-1) (rt -gt)dt-1 A B A, A,(rt-gt)dt-1>st ; A 1 B, 21

5 A B, B, B, (rt -gt)dt-1, B B ( ) (5),, (Home Bias),,,, ;, (5) GDP st =α+ρdt-1 +βzt +γsst +εt (7),SSt t GDP, γ >0, ; γ <0,,,, 2 2,, (7), 22

6 ( ),,,,, , ;, 2, = ( / )+ ( / ),, GDP GDP , ( ),Bohn, Ostry (2010) Ghosh (2013) 3, 30%, 0, ; 30%,, ; 2%,,, Ostry (2010), 1,, (2013) , 23

7 , 1 ADF dt-1 st SSt gt, E-G, st =α+f(dt-1)+βzt +γsst +εt (8) st,f(dt-1) YVAR GVAR Zt gt SSt 1 ADF ADF ( ) P ADF ( ) P st (c,0,1) Dst (c,0,1) *** dt (c,0,1) Ddt (0,0,1) *** SSt (c,0,1) DSSt (c,0,1) ** gt (c,0,1) Dgt (c,0,1) ** *** ** * 1% 5% 10% f(dt-1) 1 (1) dt-1 dt-1 2 d t-1; 3 (2) dt-1 dt-1;(3) 3 dt-1 2 d 3 f(dt-1),dt-1 d 2 t-1 d t-1 3 SSt gt, AR(1) f(dt-1) 2, (1) R 2, DW, (2),, 1 f(dt-1) dt-1 d t-1 4,, 24

8 3 (3) AR(1),, (3) E-G, (3),, JB εt 2,, εt,,, dt-1 d 2 t-1 d 3 t-1 gt SSt AR(1) C 2 (1) (2) (3) ** ( ) (1.085) (-0.949) *** (3.6355) *** ( ) (0.2919) *** (3.3174) (0.7852) (0.113) ** (2.7414) ** ( ) (0.198) (1.258) * (2.303) * (-2.169) ** (2.585) *** (-3.267) (0.915) * (1.917) Adj.R DW εt t 0.000; JB (P )0.201(0.722) ADF (P ) ** (0.0207) (c,0,1) ( ) 2 (3) st=0.381d 2 t d 3 t sst+0.280gt εt (9) dt-dt-1=(rt-gt)dt-1-st=0 (rt-gt)dt-1=st=0.381d 2 t d 3 t sst+0.280gt εt (10) (10) dt-1 dt-1 dmax rt-gt gt SSt εt rt-gt ,gt ,SSt , εt, εt=0, (10) dmax ( ) εt 99% ( ,0.0183) dmax=0.8478, 99% (10), 99% (0.811,0.879) 25

9 , (= ),, ,,, (10) ( ) 1,,, 1, %, , r-g=-8%,ss= %,2021 3%, 2030 (4), 2012, , (10), 1 4, ;, , 4% 1,, ( ) 2 2,,, r-g 1 99%

10 4,r-g %, , 2020 r-g=0, r-g r-g 1.4% r-g 1%, , SS=0.73, r-g -8%, % r-g, , 2019 r-g -1%, (0.531) (0.503) 0.028,, 2020 r-g 0, (r-g)dt-1>st, st (r-g)dt-1, 2,,,, ( ) 3 GDP % % ,, 2008, 27

11 , SS, 1%, SS , , SS , %, -8% 6, , ;,

12 ( ) 4 4, g r-g SS 1 2 3, 1 2 3, 7, ; ,2021 ;, 2022, 2 ( ), 2021, , 2030, 2030,, 7 Ghosh (2013), ,,,, 29

13 , 0.848,99% (0.811, 0.879) , (= ),,,,,, ;,,, [1]. [J].,2003,(8) [2]. [J].,2007,(4) [3]. [J].,2013,(12) [4]. 1978~2009 [J].,2011,(1) [5]. [J].,2013, (5)6-13. [6] [J].,2007,(11) [7]AbiadA,OstryJD.Primarysurplusesandsustainabledebtlevelsinemergingmarketcountries[R].IMF WorkingPaper,2005. [8]Bohn H.Arestationarityandcointegrationrestrictionsrealynecessaryfortheintertemporalbudgetcon- straint [J].JournalofMonetaryEconomics,2007,54(7) [9]Bohn H.ThesustainabilityoffiscalpolicyintheUnitedStates[R].CESifo WorkingPaper,2005. [10]Bohn H.ThebehaviorofUSpublicdebtanddeficits[J].QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1998,113 (3) [11]CelasunO,DebrunX,OstryJD.Primarysurplusbehaviorandriskstofiscalsustainabilityinemerging marketcountriesa fan-chart approach[r].imf WorkingPapers,2007. [12]Celasun O,KangJS.Onthepropertiesofvariousestimatorsforfiscalreactionfunctions[R].IMF WorkingPaper,2006. [13]GhoshA R,KimJI,MendozaE G,etal.Fiscalfatigue,fiscalspaceanddebtsustainabilityinadvanced economies[j].economicjournal,2013,123(566)4-30. [14]GoyalA.Sustainabledebtanddeficitsinemergingmarkets[J].InternationalJournalofTradeandGlobal Markets,2011,4(2) [15]HamiltonJ,Flavin M.Onthelimitationsofgovernmentborrowing Aframeworkforempiricaltesting [J].AmericanEconomicReview,1986,76(4) [16]HoshiT,ItoT.Defyinggravity CanJapanesesovereigndebtcontinuetoincreasewithoutacrisis [J]. EconomicPolicy, 2014,29(77)

14 [17]IMF.WorldeconomicoutlookPublicdebtinemerging markets[m].washington,d.c.international MonetaryFund,2003. [18]McCalum B.Arebond-financeddeficitsinflationary A Ricardiananalysis[J].JournalofPoliticalEco- nomy, 1984,92(1) [19]MendozaE G,OstryJD.Internationalevidenceonfiscalsolvency Isfiscalpolicy responsible [J]. JournalofMonetaryEconomics,2008,55(6) [20]OstryJD,GhoshA R,KimJI,etal.Fiscalspace[R].IMF WorkingPaper,2010. [21]TrehanB,WalshCE.TestingintertemporalbudgetconstraintsTheoryandapplicationstoUSfederal budgetandcurrentaccountdeficits[j].journalofmoney, CreditandBanking, 1991,23(2) [22]WilcoxD.ThesustainabilityofgovernmentdeficitsImplicationsofthepresent-valueborrowingcon- straint[j].journalofmoney, CreditandBanking, 1989,21(3) FiscalFatigue,ReserveChanneland Measurement ofgovernmentdebtceilinginchina TANG Wen-jin,SU Fan,PENG Yuan-wen (Schoolof Finance,Zhongnan Universityof Economics and Law,Wuhan430073,China) AbstractThispaperintroducesresidents savingsdepositintofiscalreactionfunction forthefirsttimeandpresentsthereservechannelofgovernmentfiscaladjustment.thenit calculatescurrentgovernmentdebtceilingandanalyzesgovernmentdebtandchangesinits ceilingfrom2013to2030basedonforward-lookingscenariosimulation.itcomestothe conclusionsasfolowsfirstly, fiscalfatigueandreservechannelwhichhasthenegative efectonfiscaladjustmentexistinfiscaloperationin China;secondly, currentchinese governmentdebtceilingis0.848,anddebtspacelargeenoughensuresthesustainabilityof currentgovernmentdebt;thirdly, scenariosimulationshowsthattheadvancementofthe marketizationofinterestratesisthekeyrisksourceofthesustainabilityofgovernment debt,andthereleaseofresidents savingsdepositcanefectivelyresistadverseefectsof themarketizationofinterestrates;butpuredependenceonthereleaseofresidents savings depositcannotfulyhedgepotentialrisksduringthetransitionperiodintheenvironmentof positiveinterestratespreads,sogovernmentsneedtoinitiativelytakemeasurestoimprove theabilityofbearingdebt. Keywordsfiscalfatigue;fiscalreactionfunction;reservechannel;sustainabilityof governmentdebt ( ) 31

课题指导 : 陆百甫 ( 全国人大财经委员会原委员国务院发展研究中心原副主任 ) 课题组成员 : 李命志 ( 全国人大财经委员会经济室 ) 孙仁宏 ( 中国社会科学院财贸经济研究

课题指导 : 陆百甫 ( 全国人大财经委员会原委员国务院发展研究中心原副主任 ) 课题组成员 : 李命志 ( 全国人大财经委员会经济室 ) 孙仁宏 ( 中国社会科学院财贸经济研究中国发展研究基金会资助项目 2012 年国民经济运行综合报告之三中国发展三步走战略后半期国家战略议程探讨国民经济运行综合报告课题组 2012 年 11 月课题指导 : 陆百甫 ( 全国人大财经委员会原委员国务院发展研究中心原副主