(61) Asian newly industrializing economies % % Balassa Feder1982 Thornton1996 Ramos2001 Wernerheim2000 Awokuse2003

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阴乔钮
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1 (60) * ** Pesaran et al.2001 Johansen and Juselius * **

2 (61) Asian newly industrializing economies % % Balassa Feder1982 Thornton1996 Ramos2001 Wernerheim2000 Awokuse2003 Gewek1984 Marin Chen2007

3 (62) Summers1997Awokuse 2007Sato and Fukushige2007 Riezman et al.1996 Granger Pesaran et al.2001 Johansen and Juselius1990 export-led growthelg

4 (63) economies of scale Grossman and Helpman1991 learning by doing comparative advantage growth-led exportglekaldor1967 Krugman1984 Bhagwait1988 GLE new trade theories Venable1996 Cournot Dixit-Stiglitz import-led growthilg Coe and Helpman1995 Laweren and Weinstein1999Mazumder growth-led importgli feedback Bhagwait1988

5 (64) Ahmad2001 Gile et al.1992 spurious regression Granger1969 Sim1972 Toda and Yamamoto1995 Ahmad2001 Giles and Williams Wernerheim Ramos Toda and Phillips1993 Toda and Yamamoto Hatemi-J2002bootstrapping Reppas and Christopoulos2005fully modified OLS 22 Ljungwall Chen Pesaran et al.2001 Halicioglu Pineres and Cantavella-Jorda2007 IMFUN Commodity Trade Statistics

6 (65) Hatemi-J and Irandoust2001 Hacker and Hatemi-J OECD Summers Laweren and Weinstein 1999 Awokuse2007 Sato and Fukushige Mahadevan and Suardi2008 generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticitygarch Pesaran et al.2001 Granger1969 Pesaran et al.2001 I(1) I(0) I(1) I(0) Peasran et al.2001 Wald

7 (66) F ARDL dynamic error correction model ECM x t y t y t x t p i1 p 1iyt i 1 jxt j 1y yt 1 2 y xt 1 yt j0 1 y p i1 p 2ixti 2 jyt j 1x xt 1 2x yt 1 xt j0 2 x H0 : 1y 0, 2y 0 H : 0, 0 or 0, 0 or 0, 0 1 1y 2y 1y 2y 1y 2y y F y y x x F x x y F I(1) I(0)ARDL Pesaran et al.2001 F ARDL I(1) ARDL I(0) F upper critical bound F lower critical bound F F y y x F x x y y x ARDL Schwartz Schwartz information criterion, BIC Pesaran et al.2001 Engle and Granger1987 x t y t

8 (67) y x t p q y y x ECT t y0 1i ti 1j tj 1 t1 yt i1 j1 p q x x y ECT t x0 2i ti 2 j tj 2 t1 xt i1 j1 ECT t-1 yt xt x t yt H0 : 1j 0, j 1, 2,..., q H : 0 1 1j x t y t x t y t x t y t H : H : x t x t y t y t y t x t Sim1980 p x x y t 1i ti 1j tj t i1 j1 p y y y t 2i ti 2 j tj t i1 j1 q q t t 0 t iid N0 2 t t iid N y t x t Granger 2 t

9 (68) H : 0, j=1,2,...,q 0 1j H : 0, j=1,2,...,q 1 1j y x t y t x t Granger y t x t Granger Geweke1984 GDP AREMOS Datastream % % 2.9% 2.5% % 2.5% 2.4% % 1.7% 1.4% % 0.4% 0.7% Jarque-Bera GDP ARCH ARCH ARCH ARCH

10 (69) 1 Mean S.D. S.K EK Max Min JB LB(24) ARCH(4) DGDP *** *** DEX *** 8.348*** DIM *** DCAP *** *** *** DLAB *** *** *** DGDP *** ** DEX *** DIM *** DCAP *** *** DLAB *** *** *** DGDP * *** DEX *** DIM *** DCAP *** DLAB *** *** (1) * 10%** 5%*** 1% (2) Mean S.D.Max Min (3) SK 0 (4) EK (5) JB Jarque-Bera (6) LB(24) Ljung-Box Q 2 (7) ARCH(4) ARCH 4 ARCH Augmented Dickey and Fuller1979, ADFSchmidt and Phillips1992, SP Elliott et al.1996, ERS DF-GLS Zivot and Andrews1992, ZA 5% 2 2 ADF 5% SP

11 (70) DF-GLS 5% ZA C 2 ADF SP ZA ERS MODEL C DF-GLS GDP EX ** ** IM CAP ** LAB GDP EX IM ** CAP LAB ** GDP EX IM ** CAP LAB (1) * 10%** 5%*** 1% (2) ADF 10%,5%,1%-2.58,-2.89,-3.51; -3.15,-3.45, (3) SP 5%-3.06 (4) ZA MODEL C, 5% 1%-5.08,-5.57 (5) ERS 10%,5%,1%-2.57,-2.89, ADF SP DF-GLS

12 (71) 3 ADF SP ERS DF-GLS DGDP ** *** DEX ** -7.75** *** DIM ** *** DCAP ** *** DLAB ** *** DGDP *** -7.80** *** DEX *** -9.57** *** DIM *** -8.78** *** DCAP *** -6.88** *** DLAB * ** *** DGDP ** -7.31** *** DEX ** ** *** DIM *** -9.83** *** DCAP *** ** *** DLAB *** -8.18** *** (1) * 10%;** 5%;*** 1% (2) ADF 10%,5%,1%-2.58,-2.89,-3.51 (3) SP 5%-3.06 (4) ERS 10%,5%,1%-2.57,-2.89,-3.48 I(1) I(0) I(0) I(1) Pesaran et al.2001 BIC Pesaran et al Narayan

13 (72) I(0)=3.010 F(GDP X 1) =4.563** F(GDP X 1) = F(GDP X 1) = F(EX X 2 ) = F(EX X 2 ) = F(EX X 2 ) = F(IM X 3 ) = F(IM X 3 ) = F(IM X 3 ) = 4.691** I(1)=4.216 F(CAP X 4 ) = F(CAP X 4 ) = F(CAP X 4 ) = F(LAB X 5 ) = F(LAB X 5 ) = 4.631** F(LAB X 5 ) = I(0)=3.648 I(1)=4.840 F(GDP X 1) F(EX X 2 ) F(IM X 3 ) F(CAP X 4 ) F(LAB X 5 ) = 5.983** = = = = F(GDP X 1) F(EX X 2 ) F(IM X 3 ) F(CAP X 4 ) F(LAB X 5 ) = = = = = F(GDP X 1) F(EX X 2 ) F(IM X 3 ) F(CAP X 4 ) F(LAB X 5 ) = = = = 5.458** = (1) * 10%;** 5%;*** 1% (2) F(y X 1), i=1,2,3,4 y,x 1 = {EX,IM,CAP,LAB}, X 2 = {GDP,IM,CAP,LAB}, X 3 = {GDP,EX,CAP,LAB}, X = {GDP,IM,EX,LAB}, X 4 5 = {GDP, EX,IM,CAP } F( GDP X 1) GDP X 1 F X 1 GDP 3 5% I(0)=3.101 I(1)=4.216 GDP F F GDP F F % I(0)=3.678 I(1)= GDP Johansen and Juselius1990

14 (73) 5 5% Johansen and Juselius Johansen * * r r r * * * r * r * r3 r r (1) * 10** 5*** 1 (2) 3 GDP VAR 5% F p 6

15 (74)

16 (75) column GDP p p p 0.05 p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p

17 (76) Toda and Phillips Granger Granger Representation Theorem 7 6 p p % Chow Ahmadand Harnhirun Toda and Yamamoto

18 (77) Johansen and Juselius 1990Chen Summers1997 Laweren and Weinstein1999 Awokuse2007 Sato and Fukushige2007 Mahadevan and Suardi2008 Pesaran et al.2001 Pineres and Cantavella-Jorda2007

19 (78)

20 (79) Granger Pesaran et al.2001 I(0) I(1) GDP Granger

21 (80) Ahmad, J. (2001), Causality Between Export and Economic Growth: What Do The Econometric Studies Tell Us? Pacific Economics Review, 6:1, Ahmad, J. and S. Harnhirun (1995), Unit Roots and Cointegration in Estimating Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the ASEAN Countries, Economics Letters, 49, Awokuse, T. O. (2003), Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Canada Canada Journal of Economics, 36, Awokuse, T. O. (2007), Causality between export, import, and economic growth: Evidence from the transition economies, Journal of Development Economics, 5, Chen, S.- W. (2007), Exactly What is the Link between Export and Growth in Taiwan? New Evidence from the Granger Causality Test, Economics Bulletin, 6(7), Chow, P. C. Y. (1987), Causality between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from the NICs, Journal of Development Economics, 26, Coe, D. T. and E. Helpman (1995), International R&D Spillovers, European Economic Review, 39, Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979), Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Society, 74, Elliott, B., T. Rothenberg and J. Stock (1996), Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root, Econometrica, 64, Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica, 55, Feder, G. (1982), On Export and Economic Growth, Journal of Development Economics, 12, Geweke, J. (1984), Inference and causality in economic time series models, Handbook of Econometrics, 2, Giles, J. A. and C. L. Williams (2000), Export-led growth: A survey of the empirical literature and some noncausality results: Part I, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9, Granger, C. W. J. (1969), Investigation Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37, Grossman, G. M. and E. Helpman (1991), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge: MIT Press. 19. Halicioglu, F. (2007), A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey, MPRA Paper, 3536.

22 (81) 20. Hatemi-J, A. (2002), Export performance and economic growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap approach, Japan and the World Economy, 14, Hatemi-J, A. and R. S. Hacker (2003), How productivity and domestic output are related to exports and foreign output in the case of Sweden, Empirical Economics, 28, Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, Kaldor, N. (1967), Strategic Factors in Economic Development, New York State School of Industrial and Labour Relation, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. 24. Krugman, P. R. (1984), Import Protection as Export Promotion: International Competition in the Presence of Oligopoly and Economies of Scale, in H. Kierzkowski (ed), Monopolistic Competition and International Trade, Oxford: Oxford University Press. 25. Ljungwall, C. (2006), Export-led Growth: Application to China's Provinces, Journal of Chinese Economics and Business Studies, 4, Mahadevan, R. and S. Suardi (2008), A Dynamic Analysis of Uncertainty on Import and/or Export-led Growth: The Experience of the Japan and the Asian Tigers, Japan and the World Economy, 20, Marin, D. (1992), Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries The Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, Narayan, P. K. (2005), The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests, Applied Economics, 37, Pesaran, M. H., Y. Shin and R. J. Smith (2001), Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, Pineres, S. A. G. and M. Cantavella-Jorda (2007), Export-led growth: are the results robust across methodologies and/or data sets? A case study of Latin American, Applied Economics, 39, Ramos, F. F. R. (2001), Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis, Economic Modelling, 18, Reppas, P. A. and D. K. Christopoulos (2005), The export-output growth nexus: Evidence from African and Asian countries, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27, Riezman, R., C. H. Whiteman and P. M. Summers (1996), The Engine of Growth or its Handmaiden? A Time- Series Assessment of Export-led Growth, Empirical Economics, 21, Sato, S. and M. Fukushige (2007), The End Of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence, OSIPP Discussion Paper, 07-38, 35. Schmidt, P. and P. C. B. Phillips (1992), LM tests for a unit root in the presence of deterministic trends, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, Summers, P. M. (1997), Trade and Growth in Settler Economies: Australian and Canadian Comparisons, MI Working Paper, ISSN , 37. Thornton, J. (1996), Cointegration, Causality and Export-led Growth in Mexico, , Economics Letters, 50, Toda, H. Y. and P. C. B. Phillips (1993), Vector autoregressions and causality, Econometrica, 61,

23 (82) 39. Toda, H. Y. and T. Yamamoto (1995), Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, Venable, A. J. (1996), Trade Policy, Cumulative Causation, and Industrial Development, Journal of Development Economics, 49, Wernerheim, C. M. (2000), Cointegration and Causality in the Exports-GDP Nexus: the Post-war Evidence for Canada, Empirical Economics, 25, Zivot, E. and D. W. K. Andrews (1992), Further evidence of the great crush, the oil price shock and the unit-root hypothesis, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10,

(156) / Spurious Regression Unit Root Test Cointergration TestVector Error Correction Model Granger / /

(156) / Spurious Regression Unit Root Test Cointergration TestVector Error Correction Model Granger / / (155) * ** / / / / 1973 ~1974 1979 ~1980 1987 ~1989 * ** (156) 1990 2004 1997 1996 1980 / Spurious Regression Unit Root Test Cointergration TestVector Error Correction Model Granger / / (157) Hedonic Price