2006 2, 3516 %, 113 % 1980, 20 12, (8 10 ) 1118 ; 20 12, (4 5 ), Bongaart s Greenhalgh 1985, : 25, 4 29, ,,,,, ,, () 21,, 2005

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1 2000, 80, , 80, 1952, ( ) 20 70,,, (),, , ;,,?,? ( ),??,? , ,, 63 %, ; (, 2001 ) ;, (, 2003 ) 93

2 2006 2, 3516 %, 113 % 1980, 20 12, (8 10 ) 1118 ; 20 12, (4 5 ), Bongaart s Greenhalgh 1985, : 25, 4 29, ,,,,, ,, () 21,, , 2020 D. (D. Gale Johnson) 1994,,,, ; gλυ :, :, , (, 1993 ) John Bongaart s and Susan Greenhalgh, An Alternative to the One2child Policy in China. Development Review, vol. 11, no. 4, 1985, pp :, ;,, 1994 :, :, , ( ) D :, gλυ :, , Population and :, ; :

3 2. Bongaart s, Pro Famy Pro Famy,,,,, , , 1987, () ,, 25 %, , ;, 2000, 112, 1198, 117 ( ) 2006, , 118 ; 5 %, 10 %,, %55 %75 %90 %, ,, , J. Bongaart s, The Projection of Family Composition over the Life Course with Family Status Life Tables. In J. Bongaart s, T. Burch and K. W. Wachter ( eds. ), Famil y Demog raphy : Methods and A p plications. Oxford : Clarendon Press, Zeng Yi, Changes in Family Structure in China : a Simulation Study. D y namics in China : A L ife Table A nal ysis, Wisconsin : The University of Wisconsin Press, 1991 :, Application, Population Research and Policy Review, 2006, vol. 25, no. 1 : Population and Development Review, vol. 12, no. 4 (Dec. 1986), pp ; :, ; Zeng Yi, Changing Demographic Characteristics and the Family Status of Chinese Women, Population S tudies, vol. 42, 1988, pp ; Zeng Yi, Famil y Zeng Yi, J ames W. Vaupel and Wang Zhenglian, A Multidimensional Model for Projecting Family Households With an Illustrative Numerical Application, M athematical Population S tudies, vol. 6, 1997, pp ; Zeng Yi, J ames W. Vaupel and Wang Zhenglian, Household Projection U sing Conventional Demographic Data, Population and Development Review, Supplementary Issue : Frontiers of Population Forecasting, vol. 24, 1998, pp. and Gu Danan, U ; Zeng Yi, Kenneth C. Land, Zhenglian Wang, S. Family Household Dynamics and Momentum Extension of Pro Famy Method and 95

4 2006 2,,,,, , , , 18 5 %10 %, , 2035,, ( 1),, , ( 1) ( TFR) TFR TFR TFR TFR TFR TFR : %471 4 %611 7 %65 % 90 % 5 t i TFR i 3 (t), t i :,, 96 ri (t),t i TFRi (t), : TFRi (t) = TFRi 3 (t) (1 - ri (t) ), ri (t) < 1,, ; : , ; : ; John Bongaart s and Griffith Feeney, On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility, Population and Development Review, vol. 24, no. 2, 1998, pp ; Zeng Yi and K. C. Land, A Sensitivity Analysis of the Bongaart s2 Feeney Method for Adjusting Bias in Observed Period Total Fertility Rates, Demog ra phy, vol. 38, no. 1, 2001, pp ; Zeng Yi and Kenneth C. Land, Adjusting Period Tempo Changes2with an Extension of Ryderπs Basic Translation Equation, Demog ra phy, vol. 39, no. 2, 2002, pp

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6 ;,, %1516 %3814 % ; %151 6 %4718 %, %3816 %, 911 % 1716 % , ( ) () ; ( ) ( ), %2517 %8315 % ; % 1913 %6812 %, 2, 3131 () %1119 %4612 % , 2070, , 2020, , 2020, 98 :,,2005 2

7 , ( ) 2060, 2060,, %, (1 0150),, 2050, %1718 %2416 % , ; , 1910 % ; , 2030, : % %2617 %2716 % 2030, ,, :,, 1984 ; ::,, 1985 ; :,, 1992 Alwyn Young, Gold into Base Metals : Productivity Growth in the Peopleπs Republic of China During the Reform Period, NB ER Working Paper 7856,

8 / 3 1/ 2,, 90 % 100 % 1980,,, , GDP 27 %, 2025,,,, 10 % 15 %, 3151, () ( ),, 2005 GDP GDP, GDP, (60, 55 ) ( ) 2007, , 2050, 65, ( ),, , 1715 %241 5 %3612 %6919 % ; GDP :21,, :, ; : 2003, pp :, :, ;, :,, Y. Sin, Pension Liabilities and Reform Options for Old Age Insurance. Working Paper Serial on China, 100, ; :, ; Wing Thye Woo, Chinese Economic Growth : Sources and Prospect s, in Michel Fouquin and Francoise Lemoine ( eds. ), T he Chinese Econom y, London : Economica, 1998, pp ; Yan Wang, Yudong Yao : Sources of Chinaπs Economics Growth : Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation, China Economic Review, vol. 14, issue 1, no The World Bank, Washington, D. C..

9 119 %217 %319 %714 %, 6 %18 % 34 %100 %, , 311 %613 %319 %2817 %, GDP 013 %017 % 014 %311 %, %5713 % %, ,,, : 4., 3519 % 5219 %916 %116 %, , 3 4 ( 3),,,,,, , 1517 ; 5 6 ( 3),, 5219 %, % 5219 % 91 6 % 11 6 % % : :2000, 2002,, , 4 5,,,, 101

10 ,,,,, %, 416 %,, B,,, 37 % ,,,,,,, : (1) , 2317 %, 7613 % (2), 5219 %,, , ( 4) (3), (109),, 2030 ( 4) () :, 102

11 %, 4617 % % (), , Pro Famy, (), ;,,,, % 30 34, % %1213 %1010 % ; 7019 %18115 %84915 % ; % %915 % 716 %, 8819 %18515 % % ( 5) , % 12 %35 49, , 4 2, , 4 (), 0 (50 ; ),, :,, 5,, 103

12 ( 41 %), 2000,, 5., 2, , 5,, 2020, , 2080 ; %,,, 1970,,,,, : 1979 (25 ) 26,,?,, ( 3), () () () () () () ( %) (),, ( 104

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15 ,,,,,,, 2035,,, ,,? ,, 23, 5 6, (1), %3717 % ; %2116 % (2) , (218) (2173) 2014 %1813 % , (3) ,, (4),, 20,,, 20,,,,, ; 1984 ( ), (), , , , %, %, 2111 % (0196 ), - 9 %, %6 %11 %, ,, :, :20,

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18 ABSTRACTS Important Hypotheses of Economic Globalization L i u Zhibi ao W u Fu x i an g 80 China has maintained a high level of growt h in the integration of trade since t he reform and opening up policy in t he 1980s. This may be explained partly but not f ully by t he gravity model. Based on statistical test s of world trade and struct ural analysis on Eastern Asian economic entities including China, we find t hat higher similarit y and a larger amo unt of t rade amo ng eco no mic entities result in more integrated trade. When t he export competitiveness of an economic entity grows because of various factors, t he level of disintegration of production rises. The result s of t he Granger Causalit y Test show t hat disintegratio n of p ro ductio n and specializatio n of export s contribute to integration of trade. Bot h integration of trade and disintegration of production are determined by t he capitalizatio n index. (8) A Sof t Landing with the Two2Children2Late2Birth Pol icy : Need and Feasibil ity Zen g Yi 93 A detailed simulated prediction and contrast analysis has been made on such issues as rural and urban pop ulation, t he ratio of elderly people living alone to the elderly pop ulation, labor force resources, shortfalls in t he retirement pension and the shortage of females of t he legal age for marriage within t he coming 80 years under t he different policy arrangement s of t he existing birt h policy and t he soft landing wit h two2children2late2birt h policy. The findings show t hat with t he soft landing policy of two children and late birt hs, t he total pop ulation of China will slowly drop af ter reaching it s highest point of billio n in The ratio of elderly people living alone to t he elderly pop ulation, t he elderly dependency ratio, and labor force resources will be higher in t he coming 80 years than if the existing birt h policy is continued, and shortfalls in t he retirement pension and t he high sex ratio at birt h will be corrected to some extent. (9) State Monopoly and Income Inequal ity in Regional Disparity Ref orm : Based on National Comprehensive Social Survey Data 2003 H ao D ahai L i L ul u 110 Starting from t he t heoretical debates concerning economic transition in socialist countries, t he aut hors of t his article attempt to conduct a theoretical study of Chinaπs economic transition, focusing o n t he impact s of t wo st rategies : regio nal disparit y reform and t he state mo nopoly sector. They build up a regio nal inco me gap model, based o n t he ( urban areas) data of t he natio nwide Gro ss Co mp rehensive Social Survey 2003 ( GSS 2003 ), to estimate t he different impact s of various variables, including the state monopoly sector, on individualsπincome. In this way, t hey co mp rehensively depict t he basic pat tern and t rends of inco me dist ributio n amo ng Chinese urban resident s after twenty2odd years of social transformation. (10) Diverse Forms of Realityfrom the Perspective of Ethnography Pen g Zhaoron g 125 Reality has always been a core issue of ethnograp hic st udies. It entered a more complicated context under t he contemporary principle of reflection. Along a vertical line of various forms of realityand a horizontal line of the history of ethnograp hic st udies, t his st udy 207

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untitled No. C2005010 2005-12 No. C2005010 2005 12 30 1 No. C2005010 2005 12 30 2 1 2005 1,, 2001, 2003 3 1998 5 Zeng Yi, James W. Vaupel, and Wang Zhenglian. 1997. A Multidimensional Model for Projecting Family