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1 3 :, HS26,,,, Tobit,,,, : , , 11, 1719 %, 20 90, 1119 %, , 2518 %,,,,, %, , %?,,,,, ( 1), 2000, , , 2215 %,, ( Immiserizing Growth),,,, (1994) ; Rodrik (2006) Schott ( 2006) Xu ( 2006) ( 2007 ), 3,, :430073, ;, HME ( ) FDI (08JC790102) (07BJL042) ( ),, 65

2 : (sophistication) (technology content of export) ; (2006) Dean et al. (2007) (2006), 20 GDP ;, (2007) GVC( Global Value Chain, ) :World Development Indicator. 1 ( 2000 = 100) (2005),, (2007) (2007),, (,2008) (Heterogeneous Firm Trade Model), (the intensive margin of trade) (the extensive margin of trade) (Melitz, 2003 ; Bernard et al., 2003) ;,, ;,,, (Hummels and Klenow, 2005 ;Hausmann and Klinger, 2006),, HS26, (Dual Margin),, :,,,,,, (Bernard et al., 2007),,, (zero trade matrix) (variety) ( ) (product mix) ( ) ( ) 66

3 , (Bernard and Jensen, 1995, 1999 ; Roberts and Tybout, 1997 ; Clerides et al., 1998 ; Alvarez and Lopez, 2004 ; Van Biesebroeck, 2006 ; ) Melitz (2003), :,, : (1),, HS26,Amurgo2Pacheco and Pierola (2008) , (86 %),, Amiti & Freund (2007) HS210, 1992, 40 %, 15 %, Bernard et al. (2003) Kang (2004), Eaton et al. (2004), (2) ( ) Felbermayr & Kohler (2006), , Helpman et al. (2008) Felbermayr & Kohler (2006),, ,,Kancs(2007), Bernard et al. (2007),,, :, (Bernard et al., 2006a ; Feenstra & Kee, 2008),Bernard et al. (2009),, ( ), Hummels & Klenow (2005) Hausmann & Klinger (2006),,Eaton et al. (2004),, Amurgo2Pacheco & Pierola (2008) : Bernard et al. (2003) Eaton and Kortum (2005), ; Melitz (2003) Melitz and Ottaviano (2005), Krugman (1980), Besedegand Prusa (2007),, 67

4 : ;,Frensch (2009),,,,, Amiti & Freund (2007) HS210, :, HS26, 200, 11 ;,,,,, ( ) :,,, Helpman et al. (2008) Felbermayr & Kohler (2006), ;Hummels & Klenow(2005), HS26, Amurgo2Pacheco & Pierola (2008), : ( ) : E i cd i d, E i cd , 2005 d, E = Ei cd, : ( ) ( ) : E j cd j d, E j cs ( d s), 2005 j s ;, E k co k ( k j) o, E k co , 1995 k o N = Nj cs N k co ( ), CEPII BACI HS26, CEPII BACI, HS Baldwin(2006),6,, 6,6 68

5 11,,, ( ) (product2country pairs), % ; (, , ), 6012 %, ( ) %, 5194 %(, 5192 %, 0102 %),, (Melitz, 2003),,, 5119 % 5107 % ;, % %,,,, (,2006 ; Dean et al., 2007 ; Koopman et al., 2008),,,, % % ;, % % 21, 11, (zero trade), 2,, 10,, 1009, %,,,, % : CEPII BACI 2 ( ), , Amiti and Freund(2007) 1992, 40 %, %,, 69

6 :,, 7010 %, 3010 %,, 9510 %, 510 %,,,,,, ( 7215 % 9712 %) ( 6711 % 9213 %),,, 5159 % 4101 %, % % ;, % %, % % ( ),, :, ;, Tinbergen (1962) :,,,,, (Anderson & van Wincoop, 2003),,,,,, ( ),,, ( Helpman et al., 2008),,,,,,Melitz (2003),,Melitz (2003), (Martina, 2008) Helpman et al. (2008) Melitz, Anderson &van Wincoop (2003) :, ;,,Chaney (2008), Helpman et al. (2008),,,,, ( ),,, 70

7 , :,Chaney(2008), X h ij ( ) = h Y i Y j Y w i h ij h j - h ( f h ij) - [ h Π( h - 1) - 1 ], if g ij 0, otherwise (1), Xij i h h j, Y, w i ( ), h ij f h ij, (multilateral resistance),,, h h g ij, h j ; h g ij, h j,,, X h ij (Anderson and Wincoop, 2003 ; Besedes and Prusa, 2007 ; Kancs, 2007), i j E ij e ij N ij, h j (1) E ij = e ij N ij (2) Hummels & Klenow(2005), N ij, e ij Chaney(2008), : e ij = x ij ( ) = 3 Y j Y ( - 1)Π j ij - 1-1, g w ij (3) i (3), 3, (1), (1) (2) (3), : N ij = E ij e ij = Xh ij ( ) = x ij ( ) Y i Y j Y f - ij - 1 w i ij j (4),, (3) (4), Chaney(2008),,, Kancs(2007) (3) (4), : ln N ij ln e ij = + 1 ln Y + 2 ln + 3 ln ij + 4 ln j (5) w i = + 1 ln Y + 2 ln w i + 3 ln ij + 4 lnf ij + 5 ln j (6), e ij N ij, Y w i ij f ij j w i,, - (4) 3, Chaney(2008) 11 71

8 : ( ) (5) (6), (ln e ij ln N ij ) Amurgo2Pacheco & Pierola (2008),, 1995, 1995, ,,,,, , ,,,,,, ln (1 + e ij ) ln (1 + N ij ), 21 (ln GDP) GDP,Martina (2008) GDP, GDP GDP, BvD, GDP, ln (1 + GDP) 31 (ln PROD), BvD (3) PROD ln (1 + PROD) 41 (ln DIST) (ln FREE), ( Kancs,2007 ; Amurgo2Pacheco and Pierola, 2008 ; Helpman et al., 2008), 11 (DIST), CEPII BACI, lndist (,2008),The Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom ,, ( FREE) Index of Economic Freedom, ln (1 + FREE), 51 (lnmres),,,, Chaney (2008),,,,,, ( ),,,,, 72

9 , (Anderson and Wincoop, 2003) Kancs(2007) (2008), < od = ( w k kj ) - f kj - [ Π( - 1) - ], d - R Y BvD r = 1 ( Y rπy) < rd 11 ( < od = < do ) ( < oo = 1),Head and Mayer (2004) : < od = E od E do E oo E dd (7), E od E do o d d o, E oo E dd o d, (7), CEPII BACI 6,, BvD,,, ln (1 + MRES) 61 ( SHOCK) , :, %, , % SHOCK, , SHOCK = 1, SHOCK = 0, ( FTA) ( CONT) ( DEVL) ( HT) ( IMID) :, FTA = 1, FTA = 0 ;, CONT = 1, CONT = 0 ;, DEVL = 1, DEVL = 0 ;, HT = 1, HT = 0 ;, IMID = 1, IMID = 0 ( ),, (censored data), (OLS), Tobit, Tobit : (1) Tobit (,2003) ; (2), Tobit (Silva and Tenreyro, 2006), Tobit (marginal effects),,,,, Tobit, ;, Silva and Tenreyro (2006), PPML (Poisson Pseudo2Maximum2Likelihood),,,,, Tobit, 73

10 : 11 1,, Tobit,, PPML 1 % 10 %, PPML Tobit Tobit, (ln GDP) (ln DIST) 1,,,,, Amurgo2Pacheco and Pierola (2008) Helpman et al. (2008) Martina (2008) (ln MRES),,,, FTA FTA,, ( CONT),,, ( DEVL),, 1 : Tobit Tobit PPML ln GDP (010011) (010012) (010015) 333 ln PROD (010010) (010011) (010015) 3 lndist (010005) (010005) (010008) 333 lnmres (010002) (010003) (010003) 333 SHOCK (010002) (010002) (010002) 333 FTA (010005) (010006) (010045) 333 CONT (010005) (010005) (010014) 333 DEVL (010009) (010012) (010054) 333 HT (010003) (010003) (010006) 333 IMID (010001) (010001) (010002) 333 YEAR NO YES NO Log Likelihood Pseudo R (ln X < = 0) :, % 10 %, (2003),Tobit R 2, (ln PROD),, (Melitz, 2003),,,,, ( 74

11 ),,,, ( ),, ( ),, ( ) ( SHOCK) Bernard et al. (2009),,,,,,,, ( HT), ( IMID), Amurgo2Pacheco & Pierola (2008) 21 2,, Tobit,, PPML ( IMID),Tobit 1 % PPML Tobit,, Tobit,,, (ln GDP),,,,,,,,,, ( Eaton et al, 2004 ; Akerman and Forslid, 2009),,,,,,,, (ln MRES),,Anderson & Wincoop (2003),, ( SHOCK) Tobit,, PPML,,,, 9111,,,, (ln PROD), ( ), 75

12 :,,, ( ),,,, ( ln FREE,, 2,ln FREE ),, (,2008) 2 : Tobit Tobit PPML PPML ln GDP (010001) (010002) (010004) (010004) 3 ln PROD (010001) (010001) (010002) (010002) 333 ln DIST (010001) (010001) (010002) (010002) 33 ln FREE (010002) (010002) (010007) (010007) 33 lnmres ( ) ( ) (010001) (010001) 33 SHOCK ( ) ( ) (010001) FTA (010001) (010001) (010001) (010001) CONT (010001) (010001) (010003) (010002) 33 DEVL (010001) (010002) (010006) (010006) HT ( ) ( ) (010002) (010002) IMID 4101e - 07 ( ) 1174e - 06 ( ) (010001) YEAR NO YES NO NO Log Likelihood Pseudo R (ln X < = 0) :, % 5 % 10 %, ( FTA) ( IMID), ( ), ( ),,, Hillberry &McDaniel (2002) Kehoe & Ruhl (2003), ( ), FTA ( ),, FTA, FTA, ( ),,,,,,, ( CONT), 76

13 ,,, (ln DIST),, ( DEVL ),, ( HT), CEPII BACI HS26,,,, Tobit 11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2006 :, 5,2004 : :,,2007 : :, 2,2007 :, No[1 ]. 001,2006 : :, 11,2008 :, 9,2008 : G27 :, 2,2003 : :, 77

14 :,2007 :,,No. C ,2007 :, 9,2005 :, 12 Akerman, A. and R. Forslid, 2009, Firm Heterogeneity and Country Size Dependent Market Entry Costs, Global COE Hi2Stat Discussion Paper Series 056. Alvarez, R. and R. Lopez, 2004, Exporting and Performance : Evidence from Chilean Plants, Working Paper, Indiana University. Amiti, M. and C. Freund, 2007, An Anatomy of Chinaπs Trade Growth, Paper presented at the Trade Conference, IMF. Amurgo2Pacheco, A. and M. D. Margins, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No Pierola, 2008, Patterns of Export Diversification in Developing Countries : Intensive and Extensive Anderson, J. E. and E. van Wincoop, 2003, Gravity with Gravitas : A Solution to the Border Puzzle, American Economic Review, 93, pp Andersson, M., 2007, Entry Costs and Adjustments on the Extensive : An Analysis of How Familiarity Breeds Exports, CESIS Working Paper No. 81. Baldwin, R., 2006, The Euroπs Trade Effect, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series 594. Bernard, A. B., J. Eaton, J. B. Jensen and S. Kortum, 2003, Plants and Productivity in Interna2tional Trade, American Economic Review, 93 (4), pp Bernard, A. B. and J. B. Jensen, 1995, Exporters, Jobs, and Wages in U. S. Manufacturing : , Brookings Papers on Economic Activity : Microeconomics, pp Bernard, A. B. and J. B. Jensen, 1999, Exceptional Exporter Performance : Cause, Effect, or Both? Journal of International Economics, 47, pp Bernard, A. B., J. B. Jensen, S. J. Redding and P. K. Schott, 2007, Firms in International Trade, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21 (3), pp Bernard, A. B., J. B. Jensen, S. J. Redding and P. K. Schott, 2009, The Margins of U. S. Trade, NBER Working Paper No Bernard, A. B., J. B. Jensen, and P. K. Schott, 2006a, Trade Costs, Firms and Productivity, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53 (1), pp Bernard, A. B., S. J. Redding and P. K. Schott, 2006b, Multi2Product Firms and Product Switching, CEPR Discussion Paper No. Besedes, T. and T. J. Prusa, 2007, The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins and Export Growth, NBER Working Paper, No Chaney, T., 2008, Distorted Gravity : The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade, American Economic Review, 98 (4), PP Clerides, S., S. Lach and J. R. Tybout, 1998, Is Learning by Exporting Important?Micro2Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico and Morocco, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113 (3), pp Corsetti, G., P. Martin and P. Pesenti, 2008, Varieties and Imbalances : The Extensive Margins of the Current Account Adjustment, NBER Working Paper No Debaere, P., S., Mostashari, 2007, Do Tariffs Matter for the Extensive Margin of International Trade? An Empirical Analysis, CEPR Working Paper. Dean, J., Fung K. C. and Zhi Wang, 2007, Measuring the Vertical Specialization in Chinese Trade, Office of Economics Working Paper, No A. Eaton, J. and S. Kortum, 2005, Technology in the Global Economy : A Framework for Quantitative Analysis, http :ΠΠwww. econ. umn. eduπ kortumπcoursesπfall05πeatonkortum10051pdf Mimeo. Eaton, J., S. Kortum and F. Kramarz, 2004, An Anatomy of International Trade : Evidence from French Firms, New York University, Feenstra, R. and H. L. Kee, 2008, Export Variety and Country Productivity : Estimating the Monopolistic Competition Model with Endogenous Productivity, Journal of International Economics, 74 (2), pp Feenstra, R. and H. L. Kee, 2007, Trade Liberalisation and Export Variety : A Comparison of Mexico and China, World Economy, 30 (1), pp Felbermayr, G. J. and W. Kohler, 2006, Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade, Review of World Economics, 142 (4), pp Felbermayr, G. J. and W. Kohler, 2007, Does WTO Membership Make a Difference at the Extensive Margin of World Trade? CESifo Working Paper, No Frensch, R., 2009, Trade Liberalisation and Import Margins, Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, forthcoming. Galstyan, V. and P. R. Lane, 2008, External Imbalances and the Extensive Margin of Trade, IIIS Discussion Paper No Ghironi, F. and M. J. Melitz, 2007, Trade Flow Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firm, American Economic Review, 97, pp

15 Hausmann, R. and B. Working Paper, No Klinger, 2006, Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space, CID Head, K. and T. Mayer, 2004, The Empirics of Agglomeration and Trade, CEPR Working Paper 3985 and also in J. V. Henderson and J2 F. Thisse (eds), Handbook of Urban and Regional Economics, North Holland. Helpman, E., M. J. Melitz and Y. Rubinstein, 2008, Estimating Trade Flows : Trading Partners and Trading Volumes, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123 (2), pp pp Hillberry R., C. McDaniel, 2002, A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA, International Economic Review, 43, Hummels, D. and P. Klenow, 2005, The Variety and Quality of a Nationπs Exports, American Economic Review, 95 (3), pp Kancs, dπa., 2007, Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model : Evidence from South Eastern Europe, World Economy, 30, pp Kang, K., 2004, The Path of the Extensive Margin ( Export Variety) : Theory and Evidence, University of California, Davis Working Paper, mimeo. Kehoe, T. J. and K. J. Minneapolis Staff Report, No Ruhl, 2003, How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade? Federal Reserve Bank of Koopman, R., Z. Wang and S. J. Wei, 2008, How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made in China, NBER Working Paper No Krugman, P., 1980, Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade, America Economic Review, 70, pp Manova, K., 2006, Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade, JOB Market Paper. Martina, L., 2008, Deconstructing Gravity : Trade Costs and Extensive and Intensive Margins, MPRA Paper No Melitz, M. J., 2003, The Impact of Trade on Intra2industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity, Econometrica, 71 (6), pp Melitz, M. J. and G. I. P. Ottaviano, 2005, Market Size, Trade, and Productivity, NBER Working Paper No Roberts, M. J. and J. R. Tybout, 1997, The Decision to Export in Colombia : An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs, American Economic Review, 87 (4), pp Rodrik, D., 2006, Whatπs So Special about Chinaπs Exports, NBER Working Paper, No Schott, R. K., 2006, The Relative Sophistication of Chinese Exports, NBER Working Paper, No Silva, S. and S. Tenreyro, 2006, The Log of Gravity, Review of Economics and Statistics, 88 (4), pp Tinbergen, J., 1962, Shaping the World Economy, New York : The Twentieth Century Fund. Van Biesebroeck, J., 2006, Exporting Raises Productivity in Sub2Saharan African Manufacturing Firms, Journal of International Economics, 67 (2), pp Xu, Bin, 2006, Measure the Technology Content of Chinaπs Exports, http :ΠΠwww. rieb. kobe2u. ac. jpπacademicπaptsπpdfπbin - Xu. pdfuh. Yi, K., 2003, Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade? Journal of Political Economy, 111, pp The Dual Margin of China Export Gro wth and Its Determinants Qian Xuefeng and Xiong Ping ( Zhongnan University of Economics and Law) Abstract :The financial crisis exposes sufficiently the vulnerability when China export growth faces the external shock. Based on the heterogeneous firm trade model, using the HS26 international trade data in , this paper describes the stylized facts of the dual margin of China export growth. We find that, whether on the multilateral or on the bilateral, China export growth mainly depends on the intensive trade margin, the extensive trade margin is very little. The obvious bias to the intensive trade margin of China export growth structure help us understand why the external shock like financial crisis can easily affect China export and the continuous deterioration of the terms of trade even though there is a period of export boom. So, China export growth should turn quickly to the extensive trade margin. Furthermore, using Tobit model, the empirical research shows that there is no common impact mechanisms on the dual trade margin, or exists the difference to some extent. The conclusion will not only provide the more credible empirical support for the above explanation, but also the abundant policy meanings for the trade structure reform. Key Words : Heterogeneous Firm ; Dual Margin ; External Shock ; Export Volatility ; Terms of Trade JEL Classification :F140, F430 ( : ) ( : ) 79

:, ; ( Krugman, 1990) ; ( Grossman and Helpman,1995),,,,,, Jones (2000),, ; Hanson Slaughter (2004), ( ),,,,, Levchenko (2004) Nunn (2005),,,, :,, ;,,

:, ; ( Krugman, 1990) ; ( Grossman and Helpman,1995),,,,,, Jones (2000),, ; Hanson Slaughter (2004), ( ),,,,, Levchenko (2004) Nunn (2005),,,, :,, ;,, 2009 8 3 : 342,,, ; U ;,,,,, : (FDI) 20 90, (,2002 ;Rodrik,2006), (2008), ( ) 2000 2123 %, 2005 4106 %, 16141 %,, :, (OEM),,,, (,2004 ;, 2008),,,,,, ( Kaplinsky,2001 ; Humphrey and Schmitz,2000),,, ( )