Lingnan University Digital Commons @ Lingnan University CAPS Working Paper Series Centre for Asian Pacific Studies 亞洲太平洋研究中心 4-2002 Do China and Hong Kong constitute an optimum currency area? Yue MA Shu Ki TSANG Follow this and additional works at: http://commons.ln.edu.hk/capswp Part of the Economic Policy Commons Recommended Citation Ma, Y. (2002). Do China and Hong Kong constitute an optimum currency area? (CAPS Working Paper Series No.130). Retrieved from Lingnan University website: http://commons.ln.edu.hk/capswp/22 This Paper Series is brought to you for free and open access by the Centre for Asian Pacific Studies 亞洲太平洋研究中心 at Digital Commons @ Lingnan University. It has been accepted for inclusion in CAPS Working Paper Series by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Lingnan University.
Working Paper Series Centre for Asian Pacific Studies No. 130 (14/02) CAPS 5 7 Do China and Hong Kong Constitute An Optimum Currency Area? Dr. Yue Ma and Professor Shu-ki Tsang Lingnan University Hong Kong
Do China and Hong Kong Constitute an Optimum Currency Area? Dr. Yue Ma and Professor Shu-ki Tsang April 2002
Yue Ma and Shu-ki Tsang Dr. Yue Ma is Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Lingnan University Professor Shu-ki Tsang is Professor, Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University Centre for Asian Pacific Studies Lingnan University Tuen Mun Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2616 7427 Fax: (852) 2465 5786 Email: caps@ln.edu.hk http://www.ln.edu.hk/caps/ CAPS and CPPS Working Papers are circulated to invite discussion and critical comment. Opinions expressed in them are the author s and should not be taken as representing the opinions of the Centres or Lingnan University. These papers may be freely circulated but they are not to be quoted without the written permission of the author. Please address comments and suggestions to the author.
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% 0B %&-2 %&&2 standard deviation % (STD) Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing (e) 0.175 (+46.2) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin (e) 0.127 ( +6.2) 97.7 2.3 100.0 Hebei (e) 0.109 ( -9.3) 93.2 6.8 100.0 Shanxi 0.143 (+19.5) 58.0 42.0 100.0 Inner Mongolia 0.158 (+32.3) 97.9 2.1 100.0 Liaoning (e) 0.153 (+28.1) 99.6 0.4 100.0 Jilin 0.114 ( -4.8) 63.7 36.3 100.0 Heilongjiang 0.125 ( +4.3) 77.2 22.8 100.0 Shanghai (e) 0.132 (+10.6) 90.8 9.2 100.0 Jiangsu (e) 0.094 (-21.8) 44.4 55.6 100.0 Zhejiang (e) 0.096 (-19.7) 50.7 49.3 100.0 Anhui 0.113 ( -5.4) 67.3 32.7 100.0 Fujian (e) 0.122 ( +1.5) 77.0 23.0 100.0 Jianxi 0.075 (-37.4) 64.8 35.2 100.0 Shandong (e) 0.109 ( -8.7) 50.0 50.0 100.0 Henan 0.125 ( +4.5) 38.9 61.1 100.0 Hubei 0.117 ( -2.0) 81.7 18.3 100.0 Hunan 0.102 (-15.1) 81.5 18.5 100.0 Guangdong (e) 0.107 (-10.4) 73.5 26.5 100.0 Guangxi (e) 0.084 (-29.8) 72.4 27.6 100.0 Sichuan 0.127 ( +5.7) 59.6 40.4 100.0 Guizhou 0.142 (+18.2) 70.5 29.5 100.0 Yunnan 0.101 (-16.0) 63.3 36.7 100.0 Shaanxi 0.147 (+22.9) 86.6 13.4 100.0 Gansu 0.123 ( +2.3) 95.5 4.5 100.0 Qinghai 0.114 ( -5.0) 94.9 5.1 100.0 Ningxia 0.120 ( +0.6) 74.0 26.0 100.0 Xinjiang 0.099 (-17.5) 56.4 43.6 100.0 Average of mainaland China 0.120 F +7 "7 "! $ G 0B 6?61 0%
0 %% %&-2 %&&2 standard deviation % (STD) Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing 0.175 (+47.2) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin 0.127 ( +6.9) 88.4 11.6 100.0 Hebei 0.109 ( -8.7) 85.8 14.2 100.0 Liaoning 0.153 (+28.9) 94.2 5.8 100.0 Shanghai 0.132 (+11.3) 85.6 14.4 100.0 Jiangsu 0.094 (-21.3) 31.0 69.0 100.0 Zhejiang 0.096 (-19.1) 71.7 28.3 100.0 Fujian 0.122 ( +2.1) 82.6 17.4 100.0 Shandong 0.109 ( -8.2) 63.3 36.7 100.0 Guangdong 0.107 ( -9.8) 47.6 52.4 100.0 Guangxi 0.084 (-29.3) 85.7 14.3 100.0 Average of coastal regions of China 0.119 F + %% " 6?61 00
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2 J68 %% %&'B %&&- Standard deviation % Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing 0.055146 (+23.1) 100.00 0.000 100.000 Tianjin 0.063835 (+42.5) 74.47 25.52 100.000 Hebei 0.041415 (-7.6) 100.00 0.000 100.000 Liaoning 0.042949 (-4.2) 95.30 4.697 100.000 Shanghai 0.035176 (-21.5) 0.00 0.000 100.000 Jiangsu 0.046599 (+4.0) 0.00 0.000 100.000 Zhejiang 0.042396 (-5.4) 80.20 19.79 100.000 Fujian 0.043754 (-2.4) 81.30 18.69 100.000 Shandong 0.035165 (-21.5) 56.60 43.39 100.000 Guangdong 0.040867 (-8.8) 65.55 34.44 100.000 Guangxi 0.045643 (+1.9) 67.60 32.39 100.000 Hong Kong 0.058990 (+31.6) 29.862 70.13 100.000 coastal regions of China 0.044813 (excluding HK) F + 7 6 02
- 0. %&/0 %&&2 standard deviation % (STD) Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing (e) 0.940 ( -9.2) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin (e) 0.679 (-34.4) 94.9 5.1 100.0 Hebei (e) 0.567 (-45.2) 61.8 38.2 100.0 Shanxi 0.476 (-54.0) 93.8 6.2 100.0 Inner Mongolia 0.258 (-75.1) 91.3 8.7 100.0 Liaoning (e) 0.937 ( -9.5) 23.2 76.8 100.0 Jilin 0.282 (-72.8) 32.3 67.7 100.0 Heilongjiang 3.841 (+271.1) 76.8 23.2 100.0 Shanghai (e) 1.156 (+11.7) 10.0 90.0 100.0 Jiangsu (e) 0.350 (-66.2) 99.7 0.3 100.0 Anhui 1.257 (+21.4) 64.1 35.9 100.0 Fujian (e) 5.446 (+426.1) 65.5 34.5 100.0 Jianxi 0.229 (-77.9) 93.1 6.9 100.0 Shandong (e) 0.261 (-74.8) 69.4 30.6 100.0 Henan 0.626 (-39.5) 75.3 24.7 100.0 Hunan 1.197 (+15.7) 83.4 16.6 100.0 Guangdong (e) 0.351 (-66.1) 97.6 2.4 100.0 Sichuan 1.581 (+52.7) 51.2 48.8 100.0 Guizhou 2.070 (+99.9) 78.8 21.2 100.0 Yunnan 0.306 (-70.5) 99.7 0.3 100.0 Shaanxi 0.471 (-54.5) 95.1 4.9 100.0 Gansu 0.268 (-74.2) 62.5 37.5 100.0 Ningxia 0.261 (-74.8) 98.5 1.5 100.0 Hong Kong 0.105 (-89.9) 36.4 63.6 100.0 mainland China (excluding HK) 1.035 F +7 "7! 0. 6 <@ MV@J1 0-
/ %&/0 %&&2 standard deviation % (STD) Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing 0.940 (-20.8) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin 0.679 (-42.8) 63.1 36.9 100.0 Hebei 0.567 (-52.2) 84.8 15.2 100.0 Liaoning 0.937 (-21.1) 80.6 19.4 100.0 Shanghai 1.156 ( -2.6) 64.3 35.7 100.0 Jiangsu 0.350 (-70.5) 79.4 20.6 100.0 Fujian 5.446 (+358.7) 9.7 90.3 100.0 Shandong 0.261 (-78.0) 54.0 46.0 100.0 Guangdong 0.351 (-70.5) 86.4 13.6 100.0 Hong Kong 0.105 (-91.2) 33.8 66.2 100.0 coastal regions of China 1.187 (excluding HK) F + & 1" 6 <@J1 0/
standard deviation % (STD) Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing (e) 0.041 ( +24.1) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin (e) 0.031 ( -6.3) 98.0 2.0 100.0 Hebei (e) 0.031 ( -5.7) 99.9 0.1 100.0 Shanxi 0.028 ( -14.0) 98.7 1.3 100.0 Inner Mongolia 0.035 ( +5.5) 99.8 0.2 100.0 Liaoning (e) 0.029 ( -11.7) 97.4 2.6 100.0 Jilin 0.029 ( -11.0) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Heilongjiang 0.029 ( -11.6) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Shanghai (e) 0.036 ( +9.4) 99.6 0.4 100.0 Jiangsu (e) 0.030 ( -9.4) 96.5 3.5 100.0 Zhejiang (e) 0.034 ( +3.5) 99.4 0.6 100.0 Anhui 0.032 ( -2.0) 98.7 1.3 100.0 Fujian (e) 0.031 ( -4.7) 98.6 1.4 100.0 Jianxi 0.030 ( -8.1) 98.7 1.3 100.0 Shandong (e) 0.039 ( +18.1) 89.4 10.6 100.0 Henan 0.035 ( +7.4) 98.2 1.8 100.0 Hubei 0.027 ( -16.4) 99.8 0.2 100.0 Hunan 0.048 ( +45.5) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Guangdong (e) 0.041 ( +25.4) 96.5 3.5 100.0 Guangxi (e) 0.032 ( -2.0) 99.3 0.7 100.0 Sichuan 0.030 ( -9.9) 99.5 0.5 100.0 Guizhou 0.029 ( -12.5) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Yunnan 0.030 ( -7.7) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Shaanxi 0.032 ( -3.6) 98.0 2.0 100.0 Gansu 0.030 ( -9.9) 98.4 1.6 100.0 Qinghai 0.037 ( +11.1) 99.1 0.9 100.0 Ningxia 0.032 ( -1.5) 94.9 5.1 100.0 Xinjiang 0.032 ( -1.9) 99.6 0.4 100.0 Hong Kong 0.180 (+447.1) 0.1 99.9 100.0 mainland China (excluding HK) 0.033 F +7 "7! 0B 6 0'
B 31 %% %&/0 %&&2 standard deviation % Common shocks decomposition: (STD) symmetric asymmetric total Beijing 0.041 ( +6.3) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin 0.036 ( -7.8) 99.3 0.7 100.0 Hebei 0.037 ( -4.5) 95.1 4.9 100.0 Liaoning 0.038 ( -2.8) 98.5 1.5 100.0 Shanghai 0.038 ( -2.0) 98.8 1.2 100.0 Jiangsu 0.035 ( -10.7) 95.8 4.2 100.0 Zhejiang 0.041 ( +4.7) 99.1 0.9 100.0 Fujian 0.038 ( -1.2) 98.4 1.6 100.0 Shandong 0.043 ( +10.0) 81.7 18.3 100.0 Guangdong 0.043 ( +10.5) 95.9 4.1 100.0 Guangxi 0.038 ( -2.4) 98.3 1.7 100.0 Hong Kong 0.165 (+323.1) 0.5 99.5 100.0 coastal regions of China 0.039 (excluding HK) F + %% 6 0B
& 4 1.-@ (%&B& F %&&. standard deviation % (STD) Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing (e) 0.019 ( -11.6) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin (e) 0.019 ( -8.7) 62.1 37.9 100.0 Shijiazhuang (e) 0.019 ( -8.7) 77.3 22.7 100.0 Taiyuan 0.018 ( -13.0) 51.3 48.7 100.0 Huhhot 0.019 ( -9.8) 80.8 19.2 100.0 Shenyang (e) 0.017 ( -17.0) 69.8 30.2 100.0 Dalian (e) 0.023 ( +8.5) 86.0 14.0 100.0 Changchun 0.021 ( -2.5) 61.8 38.2 100.0 Harbin 0.019 ( -10.9) 38.2 61.8 100.0 Shanghai (e) 0.025 ( +19.7) 74.7 25.3 100.0 Nanjing (e) 0.019 ( -9.5) 73.9 26.1 100.0 Hangzhou (e) 0.017 ( -17.4) 63.8 36.2 100.0 Ningbo (e) 0.021 ( -2.0) 68.7 31.3 100.0 Hefei 0.021 ( -1.2) 58.0 42.0 100.0 Fuzhou (e) 0.019 ( -7.8) 77.3 22.7 100.0 Xiamen (e) 0.022 ( +3.0) 79.5 20.5 100.0 Nanchang 0.021 ( +0.6) 41.1 58.9 100.0 Jinan (e) 0.020 ( -5.6) 32.6 67.4 100.0 Qingdao (e) 0.021 ( -2.4) 28.7 71.3 100.0 Zhengzhou 0.020 ( -5.6) 8.5 91.5 100.0 Wuhan 0.018 ( -12.9) 72.3 27.7 100.0 Changsha 0.018 ( -13.7) 63.9 36.1 100.0 Guangzhou (e) 0.052 (+145.4) 70.6 29.4 100.0 Shenzhen (e) 0.020 ( -5.1) 60.8 39.2 100.0 Nanning (e) 0.022 ( +3.6) 21.7 78.3 100.0 Haikou (e) 0.027 ( 27.2) 19.7 80.3 100.0 Chongqing 0.021 ( +0.1) 63.5 36.5 100.0 Chengdu 0.019 ( -7.9) 54.1 45.9 100.0 Guiyang 0.023 ( +9.7) 50.1 49.9 100.0 Kuming 0.018 ( -13.1) 18.7 81.3 100.0 Xi'an 0.019 ( -9.7) 89.1 10.9 100.0 Lanzhou 0.019 ( -10.6) 65.7 34.3 100.0 Xining 0.019 ( -8.0) 82.8 17.2 100.0 Yinchuan 0.020 ( -3.2) 11.4 88.6 100.0 Urumqi 0.021 ( +0.2) 57.9 42.1 100.0 Hong Kong 0.031 ( +48.2) 11.3 88.7 100.0 35 major cities of China 0.021 (excluding HK) F +7 "7 "! $ G.-@ 0&
%; 4 1 %'@ (%&B& F %&&. standard deviation % (STD) Common shocks decomposition: symmetric asymmetric total Beijing 0.020 ( -14.2) 100.0 0.0 100.0 Tianjin 0.021 ( -8.8) 78.7 21.3 100.0 Shijiazhuang 0.021 ( -11.1) 83.6 16.4 100.0 Shenyang 0.019 ( -18.1) 67.3 32.7 100.0 Dalian 0.023 ( -1.3) 25.5 74.5 100.0 Shanghai 0.025 ( +9.7) 24.3 75.7 100.0 Nanjing 0.020 ( -14.0) 66.7 33.3 100.0 Hangzhou 0.019 ( -18.7) 70.6 29.4 100.0 Ningbo 0.021 ( -8.5) 86.3 13.7 100.0 Fuzhou 0.020 ( -12.7) 54.5 45.5 100.0 Xiamen 0.022 ( -3.7) 55.0 45.0 100.0 Jinan 0.021 ( -7.4) 71.2 28.8 100.0 Qingdao 0.022 ( -6.7) 43.7 56.3 100.0 Guangzhou 0.049 (+113.9) 11.1 88.9 100.0 Shenzhen 0.020 ( -12.7) 23.0 77.0 100.0 Nanning 0.022 ( -3.7) 73.1 26.9 100.0 Haikou 0.027 ( +18.0) 67.1 32.9 100.0 Hong Kong 0.032 ( +39.7) 39.1 60.9 100.0 17 Eastern cities of China 0.023 (excluding HK) F + %'@.;
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