CONTENTS Cover Story - PDF 免费下载

CONTENTS Cover Story 24 08 26 37

GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET Exchange News 01 Regulatory Update 04 Industry News 06 Market Opinions 07 08 10 12 Voices from Events 14 15 16 17 Comments and Features 18 20 24 www.dce.com.cn 26 Macro-Economic Focus 28 32 35 Commodity Focus 37 39 40 Trading Strategies 41 42 New Contracts 44 44 Statistics 45

01 EXCHANGE NEWS

EXCHANGE NEWS Xavier Rolet Theodor Weimer January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 02

EXCHANGE NEWS 03

REGULATORY UPDATE European Union January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 04

REGULATORY UPDATE 05

INDUSTRY NEWS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 06

MARKET OPINIONS 07

MARKET OPINIONS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 08

09 MARKET OPINIONS

10 MARKET OPINIONS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET

MARKET OPINIONS 11

12 MARKET OPINIONS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET

MARKET OPINIONS 13

VOICES FROM EVENTS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 14

15 VOICES FROM EVENTS

VOICES FROM EVENTS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 16

VOICES FROM EVENTS 17

COMMENTS AND FEATURES January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 18

19 COMMENTS AND FEATURES

COMMENTS AND FEATURES January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 20

21 COMMENTS AND FEATURES

COMMENTS AND FEATURES January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 22

COMMENTS AND FEATURES 23

COMMENTS AND FEATURES 封面故事 COVER STORY 近年来, 鉴于欧美反垄断监管机构数次阻止交易所的大型并购活动, 一些交易所只好转向有机增长和多元化发展 January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 24

25 COMMENTS AND FEATURES

COMMENTS AND FEATURES January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 26

COMMENTS AND FEATURES 27

MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 28

29 MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS

30 MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET

MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS 31

MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 32

33 MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS

MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 34

35 MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS

36 MACRO-ECONOMIC FOCUS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET

COMMODITY FOCUS 37

COMMODITY FOCUS Ma Rodriquez January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 38

39 COMMODITY FOCUS

COMMODITY FOCUS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 40

TRADING STRATEGIES Trader Q&A How would you best describe your trading style? I work closely with my technology provider to ensure I have the best tools available to trade the main markets I use. What is the best and worst thing about the market right now? The best thing about the market I would say is that spoofing is not as common as it was just two or three years ago, and this can be attributed to the action against Navinder Singh Sarao. The worst thing about the market is the relative lack of volatility. There are sporadic episodes but oil has gone flat and interest rates are pretty much priced in. What is your outlook for the rest of this year? Like everyone, I would expect the equities bubble to deflate somewhat and further volatility around UK sterling. Interest rates have been pretty well covered already I think. What products are you excited about right now? There is no getting round it but it s all about the Cboe and CME bitcoin futures, with bitcoin whip-sawwing there is obvious demand particularly from retail brokers, but I can understand the banks are nervous about their exposure through the clearing house. What advice would you give to a new trader? Learn the fundamentals and get close to your technology provider and clearing brokers, they are two of the most important relationships you will have. What would you have been if you weren't a trader? Possibly an engineer or something in science. 41

TRADING STRATEGIES TRAINING Description:A long put butterfly is composed of two short puts at a middle strike, and long one put each at a lower and a higher strike. The upper and lower strikes (wings) must both be equidistant from the middle strike (body), and all the options must be the same expiration. Outlook:The investor is looking for the underlying stock to achieve a specific price target at expiration. Summary:This strategy profits if the underlying stock is at the body of the butterfly at expiration. Motivation:Profit by correctly predicting the stock price at expiration. Variations:The long call butterfly and long put butterfly, assuming the same strikes and expiration, will have the same payoff at expiration. They may, however, vary in their likelihood of early exercise should the options go into-the-money or the stock pay a dividend. While they have similar risk/reward profiles, this strategy differs from the short iron butterfly in that a negative cash flow occurs up front, and any positive cash flow is uncertain and would occur somewhere in the future. EXAMPLE Long 1 XYZ 65 put Short 2 XYZ 60 puts Long 1 XYZ 55 put Maximum Gain High strike - middle strike - net premium paid The maximum gain would occur should the underlying stock be at the middle strike at + 0-50 55 60 65 70 Net Position (at expiration) expiration. In that case, the long put with the upper strike would be in-the-money and all the other options would expire worthless. The profit would be the difference between the upper and middle strike (the wing and the body), less the premium paid for initiating the position. Maximum Loss Net premium paid The maximum loss would occur should the underlying stock be outside the wings at expiration. If the stock were above the upper strike all the options would expire worthless; if below the lower strike all the options would be exercised and offset each other for a zero profit. In either case the premium paid to initiate the position would be lost. Profit/Loss The potential profit and loss are both very limited. In essence, a butterfly at expiration has a minimum value of zero and a maximum value equal to the distance between either wing and the body. An investor who buys a butterfly pays a premium somewhere between the minimum and maximum value, and profits if the butterfly's value moves toward the maximum as expiration approaches. January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 42

TRADING STRATEGIES Breakeven:The strategy breaks even if at expiration the underlying stock is above the lower strike or below the upper strike by the amount of the premium paid to initiate the position. Volatility:An increase in implied volatility, all other things equal, will usually have a slightly negative impact on this strategy. Time Decay:The passage of time, all other things equal, will usually have a positive impact on this strategy if the body of the butterfly is at-the-money and a negative impact if the body is away from the money. Assignment Risk:The short puts that form the body of the butterfly are subject to exercise at any time, while the investor decides if and when to exercise the wings. The components of this position form an integral unit, and any early exercise could be disruptive to the strategy. Since the cost of carry sometimes makes it optimal to exercise a put option early, investors using this strategy should be extremely wary if the butterfly moves into-the-money. And be aware, a situation where a stock is involved in a restructuring or capitalization event, such as a merger, takeover, spin-off or special dividend, could completely upset typical expectations regarding early exercise of options on the stock. Expiration Risk:This strategy has an extremely high expiration risk. Consider that the maximum profit occurs when at expiration the stock is trading right at the body of the butterfly. Presumably the investor will choose to exercise their in-the-money wing, but there is no way of knowing for sure whether none, one or both of the puts in the body will be exercised. If the investor guesses wrong, they face the risk of the stock opening sharply higher or lower when trading resumes after the expiration weekend. 43

新合约点评 NEW CONTRACTS January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 44

45 STATISTICS 数据统计 326,272,790 132,964,020 58,249,109 340,625 258,269 1,258,335,980 1,008,941,458 533,644,281 57,045,007 29,105,586 24,315,839 15,178,650 3,482,213 3,092,108 245,980 106,130 英国法国荷兰挪威葡萄牙匈牙利意大利 55,813,831 1,419,871 823,516 191,508 288 241 80

46 STATISTICS 数据统计 12,185,912 10,685,818 7,534,638 6,974,301 5,624,538 5,361,480 4,343,757 4,009,054 3,734,247 3,726,423 55,122,058 34,567,236 12,174,964 9,743,401 8,623,338 7,353,968 5,741,735 4,779,263 4,365,817 3,809,883 January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET

STATISTICS 数据统计 47 40,429,756 27,635,706 21,043,345 10,006,515 9,679,257 6,485,635 6,038,211 5,585,928 4,548,629 4,149,669 12,819,025 10,221,165 5,764,767 5,644,694 4,698,756 3,835,739

数据统计 STATISTICS 78,006,212 75,110,676 41,258,574 40,075 26,492 990 56,487,866 41,262,141 40,145,040 18,310,165 12,071,563 January 2018 GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET 48